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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 373

Karma Hunter | Posted 9/30/2006 9:05:54 PM | message detail
After never getting an even update all day, on the last update of the match, Riku and Yoshi both got 134 votes. It's like they were fighting all day, but then they made a truce and became friends. >___>

You are the weirdest person I know. =D
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Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2006 9:07:08 PM | message detail
So, since Yoshi was the bracket favourite, which match will be the first "upset"?

Phoenix/Gordon?
Ganon/Vincent?
Zero/Luigi?

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Janus5000 | Posted 9/30/2006 9:07:35 PM | message detail
Hah, Riku make friends with someone. That sounds like something Sora would do.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2006 9:08:00 PM | message detail
Luigi/Zero has much potential to be. Higher seed + Mario's brother = Casual bait
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Dante vs. Ryu H. - Bracket: Dante - Vote: Dante (18/19)
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/30/2006 9:08:26 PM | message detail
I thought Zero > Dante to you fellows?

He is, but I'm expecting a touch of SFF here. Maybe a lil' more from the looks of it...
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Commit it to memory.
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/30/2006 9:09:15 PM | message detail
By the way, with it's 19th straight "majority rules" decisions, this contest now holds the record for the most predictable start of all time.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
shadow8021 | Posted 9/30/2006 9:11:08 PM | message detail
And Ryu brings it down.
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Character Battle Score: 19/19
Today's Pick: Dante
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 9/30/2006 9:11:15 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
18-----2205-----47.6643991
17-----5332-----54.0135034
16-----7917-----57.3449539
15-----8322-----59.0002403
14-----7055-----59.3905032
13-----5026-----59.7095105
12-----3093-----61.8816683
11-----1715-----62.7988338
10------967-----62.0475698
9------433------64.2032333
8------186------63.4408602
7------72-------79.1666667
6------26-------88.4615385
5------18-------50.0000000
4------30-------46.6666667
3------41-------34.1463415
2------56-------37.5000000
1------86-------43.0232558
0------66-------50.0000000

Overall prediction percentage: 58.08%

Ouch. The first seeding upset is another match where the top performers do worse than the people with lowere scores. The first seeding upset also means those who choose the top seed for every match have fallen from being perfect and it shows in the difference between the -1s and the perfect's prediction percentage. With half the 0s going down on this match, will one of them survive to the end?

26 people fell off the top 50. ArmadilloBoreal, Wildcat_X, Not_Dave, ZeroHero39, SuperStorm786, Concert0, Ramerick121, Rej72380, GraphG, OgrePlayer, Bluesflu26, Android_127, Unkownver2, Daccat, Lacant, pablo_venturaz, BrothaGarrett, Excellence27, Super_Vegito2, j_holder, dukeextreme, HTGangsta, NinjaofRuin, Kanalet, PhantomSoldierX and, the former #1, Sir_Cobain all had Riku taking out Yoshi.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/30/2006 9:11:26 PM | message detail
Not quite stabilized yet...keeping Hayabusa's day vote in mind HM may be primed to take another point. Curses!
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Commit it to memory.
Lopen | Posted 9/30/2006 9:11:47 PM | message detail
Well, yeah, KH, I see why you went so high. (Same reason I did... well also because I think Dante >= Zero) But the other four didn't even mention the term "SFF" at all!

"LOL X-Stats", right?
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/30/2006 9:12:02 PM | message detail
Sloppy mess, that's what yesterday was.
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CB5 Points: 17/18, Current Oracle placement: 13/159
Now playing: Okami
Kyle Bowen | Posted 9/30/2006 9:13:23 PM | message detail
Where can I find and hour by hour breakdown of the Squall/Tidus match?

KB
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/30/2006 9:13:29 PM | message detail
As someone else said, if there is SFF, there shouldn't be too much of it considering that they're on two different systems.
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Dante vs. Ryu Hayabusa/ Bracket: Dante / Vote: Ryu (18/19)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Sora / Vote: Tingle
Xuxon | Posted 9/30/2006 9:14:44 PM | message detail
How does everyone expect the day vote to go? I hear Hayabusa's good with it, but I would expect Dante to be okay with it too.
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Take off every sig.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2006 9:14:55 PM | message detail
Hey, my reasons for going high are good too! (Zero > Dante just barely + a small boost for Dante)
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Dante vs. Ryu H. - Bracket: Dante - Vote: Dante (18/19)
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/30/2006 9:14:57 PM | message detail
The rift between systems is as nothing against the devotee of good 3D action games!!!
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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/30/2006 9:15:06 PM | message detail
Not quite stabilized yet...keeping Hayabusa's day vote in mind HM may be primed to take another point. Curses!

Hayabusa is actually favored to take the day vote against Dante? Man, I really haven't been paying enough attention.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/30/2006 9:15:13 PM | message detail
From Kyle Bowen Posted 9/30/2006 9:13:23 PM
Where can I find and hour by hour breakdown of the Squall/Tidus match?

KB


http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/

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Z1mZum won the Guru Contest. I picked Pokemon over Metroid, GTA over Warcraft, Halo over CV, Street Fighter over RE, and FF over Zelda.
creativename | Posted 9/30/2006 9:16:36 PM | message detail
I don't buy SFF here.

And looks like Hayabusa may do a bit better in this match than he did against Zero.
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Kyle Bowen | Posted 9/30/2006 9:17:00 PM | message detail
Um... not quite what I meant Potato...

but thanks...

I meant as in... what the % is for each individual hour.


KB
dragoontheguy | Posted 9/30/2006 9:17:01 PM | message detail
Hayabusa is actually favored to take the day vote against Dante? Man, I really haven't been paying enough attention.

I thought dante was notoriously bad with the day vote, and ryu was good with it in the past. Is that incorrect?
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/30/2006 9:19:12 PM | message detail
Dante seems to be slightly worse in the day than night, while Ryu has a slight edge in the day based on his matches with Zero and Jill. This is sort of what you'd expect with Ryu being XBox and all. There probably won't be *too* much of a swing, but yeah.
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Commit it to memory.
Lopen | Posted 9/30/2006 9:19:41 PM | message detail
I don't really think Dante is going to SFF Hayabusa that much... I only said a hair, let's not overexaggerate what I said. I do think this is mostly Dante, here... a % or two SFF tops.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2006 9:21:03 PM | message detail
Dante usually faces characters with strong day votes (Sonic, Tails, Vincent). He did own Terra with it..but that's to be expected.

I think they're going to more or less split it. (Ryu will probably take the morning vote)
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Dante vs. Ryu H. - Bracket: Dante - Vote: Dante (18/19)
Draco1214 | Posted 9/30/2006 9:21:19 PM | message detail
I don't know whether to feel confident in Dante or fear for Zero at this point. Or both.
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Character Battle V Score - 19/19 points
Current Prediction - Dante vs. Ryu Hayabusa
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/30/2006 9:22:00 PM | message detail
It would be very awesome if Lopen got this point.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/30/2006 9:22:17 PM | message detail
I wouldn't know how much SFF to expect out of these two, but I'll be boring and concede that them being on completely different systems probably limits it to being not too much. 'A slight overperformance', one might prefer to call it (assuming it holds).

Though in any case, I can see a result like this holding meaning good things for Vincent or bad things for Zero.
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Commit it to memory.
Ngamer64 | Posted 9/30/2006 9:23:19 PM | message detail
Comparison game!

vs Zero

2005-07-21 00:05:01 592 258 69.65% 30.35% 850 334
2005-07-21 00:15:00 1181 606 66.09% 33.91% 1787 575
2005-07-21 00:30:00 1936 1026 65.36% 34.64% 2962 910

vs Dante

2006-10-01 00:05:01 849 432 66.28% 33.72% 1281 417
2006-10-01 00:15:02 2104 1119 65.28% 34.72% 3223 985


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thengamer.com/xstats - "lol x-stats," The Contest Simulator
thengamer.com/gamefaqs - The Contest Archives
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/30/2006 9:23:22 PM | message detail
I'd be fearing for Zero. I have him in my bracket, but now I'm 75% sure Luigi wins. Zero is weak, I mean how many people have actually played Mega Ma-*dies*
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caps
Lopen | Posted 9/30/2006 9:25:26 PM | message detail
Don't fear for Zero. Leonhart was totally right. Dante's half of the Devil Division was completely accurate. Dante will be kicking that green vermin's hide... and he'll roll over Yoshi to get there!
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2006 9:26:47 PM | message detail
More like fearing for Zero against Kirby!!

Puffball gon' win it!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Dante vs. Ryu H. - Bracket: Dante - Vote: Dante (18/19)
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/30/2006 9:28:07 PM | message detail
Though it'd set me back, from a preference standpoint I'd like nothing more than for Dante (or Hayabusa LOL) to crush Yoshi in the next round. It'd be so satisfying.

These two results are giving me a clear Dante vibe, but there's something about Yoshi that I can't shake...it's the reason why I took him in the first place.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/30/2006 9:28:26 PM | message detail
I'd be fearing for Zero if I were you. Unless Ryu kills with the day vote, this is definitely making Zero look weak enough to lose to Luigi.

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Z1mZum won the Guru Contest. I picked Pokemon over Metroid, GTA over Warcraft, Halo over CV, Street Fighter over RE, and FF over Zelda.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2006 9:28:48 PM | message detail
I don't think anybody is worried about Zero's first round match. Though he better score at least 53% for me to be comfortable in Zero > Kirby.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Lopen | Posted 9/30/2006 9:32:45 PM | message detail
Dante gaining ground... aah... this is good! Keep it nice and high so you don't fall below 65% with the day vote!

I still feel kinda bad for Ryu Hayabusa... I love him too!
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
Ngamer64 | Posted 9/30/2006 9:32:45 PM | message detail
vs Zero
2005-07-21 00:05:01 592 258 69.65% 30.35% 850 334
2005-07-21 00:15:00 1181 606 66.09% 33.91% 1787 575
2005-07-21 00:30:00 1936 1026 65.36% 34.64% 2962 910
2005-07-21 00:45:00 2635 1352 66.09% 33.91% 3987 1283

vs Dante
2006-10-01 00:05:01 849 432 66.28% 33.72% 1281 417
2006-10-01 00:15:02 2104 1119 65.28% 34.72% 3223 985
2006-10-01 00:30:03 3863 2010 65.78% 34.22% 5873 1853

Stupid Dante. Go the other direction!

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thengamer.com/xstats - "lol x-stats," The Contest Simulator
thengamer.com/gamefaqs - The Contest Archives
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/30/2006 9:33:19 PM | message detail
No Dante....keep falling! To about 64.28%!
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CB5 Points: 17/18, Current Oracle placement: 13/159
Now playing: Okami
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/30/2006 9:33:43 PM | message detail
Dante seems to be doing really well here, but Hayabusa should get some favoring with the day vote to bring this down a bit.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/30/2006 9:35:59 PM | message detail
The Devil Division being overrated is so screwed.
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Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2006 9:40:59 PM | message detail
I think Yoshi might be screwed....

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/30/2006 9:41:38 PM | message detail
lol no


If Hayabusa wasn't underrated by Zero (Gee what a shock!) and Dante gained enough to get back to around his 2005 value, this match goes about as expected! Huzzah.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Lopen | Posted 9/30/2006 9:42:30 PM | message detail
Psh... I never said the Devil division was overrated, I said Squall rSFFed Vincent. All the overrated crap is on Squall's side! Dante is too legit to qu... be overrated!.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2006 9:43:46 PM | message detail
So this either means that Devil Division is not overrated, Dante got a massive boost, or Zero wasn't SFF'd by Mario.

All of those spell trouble for my bracket

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/30/2006 9:43:50 PM | message detail
From Heroic Mario Posted 10/1/2006 12:41:38 AM #191
lol no


If Hayabusa wasn't underrated by Zero (Gee what a shock!) and Dante gained enough to get back to around his 2005 value, this match goes about as expected! Huzzah.


This is very true. I completely forgot Zero being SFFd by Mario isn't accounted for in the stats.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/30/2006 9:43:50 PM | message detail
How convenient that Dante and Squall are merely and yet coincidentally boosting up to those presumably arbitrary 2005 values! I mean, I know I would expect Dante to do that based on...uh, a special edition of a game...
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Commit it to memory.
YoboD | Posted 9/30/2006 9:44:12 PM | message detail
I'm still not to worried about my Yoshi>Dante pick, but my bracket is so screwed anyway (I have Alucard over Auron, Kairi over Rikku, wtf was I thinking).
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Duff beer for me, Duff beer for you, I'll have a Duff, you'll have one too.
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/30/2006 9:45:33 PM | message detail
So this either means that Devil Division is not overrated, Dante got a massive boost, or Zero wasn't SFF'd by Mario.

Or -- and this will save you the trouble of coming up with an excuse later -- the Devil Division was overrated by a bit, Dante regained what he had lost due to it being overrated thanks to DMC3: SE (a whopping 2 - 3% depending on the degree of overrated the division was), Zero never was SFFed by Mario (this made about as much sense as "LUIGI IS THE FLOOR FOR YOSHI!") and therefore Hayabusa wasn't underrated.

See how clear the picture is!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
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Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 9/30/2006 9:46:05 PM | message detail
So this either means that Devil Division is not overrated,


This will finally be accepted by everyone once Vincent thrashes Ganondorf!
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Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden
Lopen | Posted 9/30/2006 9:46:38 PM | message detail
You can't say Squall is anywhere, fool! Tidus was screwed by the Same Fanbase Hammer! Squall shall be proven to be overrated by Snake as he beats him next round, echidna style!
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/30/2006 9:47:12 PM | message detail
How convenient that Dante and Squall are merely and yet coincidentally boosting up to those presumably arbitrary 2005 values! I mean, I know I would expect Dante to do that based on...uh, a special edition of a game...

A special edition of the game that was sold for $20 and nearly doubled the sales of the game in America! Gee, I bet that didn't persaude the people on the edge of buying the game thanks to its cheaper price and all sorts of extras! No way! (I bought DMC3 thanks to the special edition for the record)

And Squall boosting a bit thanks to his role in KH2? Whew! No way, guys!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg