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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 373

THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/30/2006 5:04:32 PM | message detail
Lara Croft is beyond hope, as she was never popular to begin with. Dante, on the other hand, is popular here.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 1: 41-15 over Sephiroth
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/30/2006 5:06:08 PM | message detail
No, it hasn't.

2.6 million is more than double the sales of Devil May Cry 3!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/30/2006 5:06:48 PM | message detail
Which is only going to make Chun-Li's beat down of Lara all the sweeter!
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 1: 41-15 over Sephiroth
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/30/2006 5:07:24 PM | message detail
Chun-Li beating down Lara is welcomed over here!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2006 5:08:16 PM | message detail
I thought it was <_<

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/30/2006 5:08:33 PM | message detail
Oh, you're telling me. What I wouldn't pay to see that...

Err...Thunder Thighs > Eunuch Masters!
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 1: 41-15 over Sephiroth
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/30/2006 5:09:54 PM | message detail
I was talking relatively to their series, thank you very much!

...but 2.6 million for TR:L? How much did AoD sell again?
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Commit it to memory.
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/30/2006 5:12:41 PM | message detail
Lies, Leonhart, lies!


And the 2.6 million figure was five weeks after it had been out, so it's likely a bit beyond that at this point. But AoD sold around 3.3 million...

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
NewLib | Posted 9/30/2006 5:22:33 PM | message detail
Am I the only one who thinks Master Cheif is heading for a major struggle againist Sub Zero. A new Mortal Kombat game does come out about three days before the match.

And MC happens to be this contest biggest underperformer. LOL Felix, Frog, and DK.
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--NL--
Z1mZum made me look like Toadette. And made me nominate her.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/30/2006 5:23:57 PM | message detail
Struggling? Sub-Zero's gonna win!
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 1: 41-15 over Sephiroth
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/30/2006 5:24:04 PM | message detail
I'm actually not worried at all about Master Chief's match against Sub-Zero. And that new Mortal Kombat game releasing bothers me even less than FFXII right before Zelda/Aeris.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/30/2006 5:24:25 PM | message detail
Nah, MC should be able to beat Sub without too much trouble. Sure anything Halo may not be very popular around here, but I'd expect anything Halo to beat anything Mortal Komabt.
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CB5 Points: 17/18, Current Oracle placement: 13/159
Now playing: Okami
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/30/2006 5:26:40 PM | message detail
Master Chief beat a non-fodder character without trouble? Ha, I say!
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 1: 41-15 over Sephiroth
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/30/2006 7:01:10 PM | message detail
Nobody noticed that Riku won three updates in a row? Moral victory!
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Neurosis | Posted 9/30/2006 7:15:16 PM | message detail
And the 2.6 million figure was five weeks after it had been out,

It must have killed in Europe and/or PC because the USA sales I'm looking at aren't impressive at all.
WilhuffTarkin | Posted 9/30/2006 7:16:49 PM | message detail
Has anyone else noticed the inrcredible amount of apathy this contest seems to be garnering? Even in the series contest, there were pretty much always well over two hundred topics on this board.
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Evacuate? In our moment of triumph? I think you overestimate their chances.
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/30/2006 7:25:06 PM | message detail
GameFAQs Contests 1767 50250 9/30 10:24PM
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Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2006 7:45:01 PM | message detail
Patriot Division: Round 1 - Match 20 – (2)Dante vs. (7)Ryu Hayabusa

Moltar’s Analysis

Dante
Game/Series Known From: Devil May Cry
Extrapolated Rank in 2002: 18th (25.02%)
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: 21th (28.23%)
Extrapolated Rank in 2004: 17th (25.49%)
Extraploated Rank in 2005: 16th (29.99%)
Seed in 2002: 4
Seed in 2003: 4
Seed in 2004: 4
Seed in 2005: 1
Lost in 2002 to Crono in Round 2
Lost in 2003 to Ryu in Round 2
Lost in 2004 to Sonic in Round 3
Lost in 2005 to Vincent in Round 2

The star of DMC is back and looking to kick more ass.

Ryu H.
Game/Series Known From: Ninja Gaiden/Dead or Alive
Extrapolated Rank in 2004: 28th (20.65%)
Extraploated Rank in 2005: 34th (21.76%)
Seed in 2004: 3
Seed in 2005: 6
Lost in 2004 to Sora in Round 2
Lost in 2005 to Zero in Round 1

Ryu H. somehow makes it back into the Contest.

While Ryu H. isn’t weak, he isn’t all that strong either. Dante shouldn’t have any problems here. I mean, last year he looked great, with his 46% on Vincent and such. Ryu H., on the other hand, did slightly better than expected on Zero by getting 37% against him. I’d expect similar numbers from Dante, and with another possible boost from DMC3 and the Special Edition, I won’t be surprised if he matched or surpassed Zero’s performance.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Dante will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Dante: 64% - Ryu H.: 36%



Ulti’s Analysis

I'm not even going to dignify this crap with a response.

Prediction: Dante with 63.75%



HM’s Analysis

If there’s one thing you can anticipate about this match is the picture. It should be the most badass picture we’ll see in this contest, unless Ganon/Vincent is really good, because of how cool these two look. Unfortunately, the rest of the match won’t be nearly as entertaining. Dante is coming off a pretty good performance against Vincent by putting up 46% and Hayabusa is coming off of a pretty solid loss to Zero.

This should never come into question, but we may be able to get a better idea of if Dante was overrated because of Vincent last year and/or if Hayabusa was underrated enough by Zero’s match against Mario – some silly people here believe in Mario/Zero SFF! This has a pretty solid range of about 58% - 62%, I believe, so it may be hard to determine if it was one factor or another unless it hits one of the extremes. Still, Dante coming off looking very impressive here will set up nicely for his match against Yoshi in the following round.

Aitch Emm’s Bracket: Dante

Aitch Emm’s Prediction: Dante – 58% ; Ryu Hayabusa – 42%

Aitch Emm’s Vote: Dante



Yoblazer’s Analysis

Wow, what a picture! Definitely one of the coolest ever. Judging by that awesome pic, this match will be very competitive. Judging by history, it won't be. According to the 2005 stats, Dante is projected to beat Ryu Hayabusa with 63.72% of the vote. As is usually the case, however, some debate surrounds this number. Many people claim that this percentage is inflated not only by Dante possibly being overrated (via a Vincent overperformance against Crono), but by Hayabusa possibly being underrated (via a Zero underperformance against Mario). Because of this, it is being argued that Hayabusa has a good chance at breaking 40%.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2006 7:45:27 PM | message detail
I disagree. Now, I'm not claiming that the two entrants weren't overrated and underrated last year. They very well could be, and there's no way for me to prove it either way. However, I am arguing that Dante is in an advantageous enough position to score 60%+ regardless of the stats' accuracy (or inaccuracy). Surprisingly, Devil May Cry 3 has put up some terrific sales numbers since last year. Much like Kratos and God of War, I expect these very healthy sales to, at the very least, keep Dante constant from last year, and, at best, give him a tiny boost. In addition, I also have a gut feeling that Dante is one of those characters that would naturally have an edge over someone like Hayabusa. Both are stereotypical humanoid badasses, and in a match of stereotypical humanoid badasses, I'll take the more popular, more mainstream PS2 star to overperform any day. I believe Dante will match or exceed Zero's percentage against Ryu last year, and I expect the board to shift toward Dante for his anticipated Round 2 match against Yoshi.

As for Hayabusa, I have no clue what he's been up to for the past year, buthe'lllosesowhocares.

My prediction: Dante def. Ryu Hayabusa (63-37)



Lopen’s Analysis

Never has so much badassery been jammed in one match

This match will do a 40 hit stylish combo on your friend's fool neighbor who didn't vote in it, and then it'll throw out some freaking awesome one-liner about how the neighbor should go vote. This match will have double the votes because everyone will want to vote for both entrants. This match will have what ever guns swords glory demon ninja swords stars nimpo.

Oh man, I love it. You know what I said about Aeris/Marle? Well, take it and apply it backwards to this match. I wish they could both win. Oh man, imagine that? Solid Snake would not even stand a chance. The Dante/Hayabusa alliance would roll over the men's bracket… and the battle royal… and then it would go back and take the series contest too, just for good measure.

Alright, well, that's about it. Sorry, but this match shouldn't really be in question. Hayabusa isn't fodder, but he isn't in Dante's league. Nothing has led us to believe otherwise. And I'm thinking Dante might even score a touch of the ol' SFF on Hayabusa, considering their games are similar in appeal.

Lopen's Prediction: Dante with 65.02%



KH’s Analysis

lol x-stats history

DANTE

"This party's getting crazy!"

Summer 2002 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 18th Place [25.02%]

Summer 2003 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 21st Place [27.32%]

Summer 2004 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 23rd Place [ 25.49%]
Summer 2005 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 17th Place [29.99%]

He's fun-loving, talkative, and has a flair for the dramatic. Longtime contest veteran Dante returns! Fresh off a 2005 performance on Vincent that many in retrospect found shocking he is, like Yoshi, again in a very winnable fourpack for the taking. Dante's relying on a few things to put on his best performance yet -- the truth concerning the Devil Division, Yoshi's true value, and the release of DMC3: Special Edition along with the healthier sales DMC3 as a whole has garnered since the last contest. This could very well be his best contest yet, and this time he's got something to prove !! WOO DANTE

RYU HAYABUSA

"It's over."

Summer 2004 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 36th Place [20.65%]

Summer 2005 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 37th Place [21.76% ]
Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2006 7:46:04 PM | message detail
Where Dante is flashy and in-your-face, Ryu Hayabusa is all about action, plain and simple. He doesn't have much of a personality, but you'll be damned if you're thinking about that when playing as the most badassed ninja to ever exist. While many suspect Dante is overrated, Hayabusa is generally considered to be underrated, but that doesn't really matter in this matchup -- Dante is a lock here. Like so many other males, Hayabusa was wasted thanks to the inclusion of the female half. Um WOO RYU HAYABUSA

Notable Releases Since Last Appearance

Dante: Devil May Cry 3: Special Edition (PS2)
Ryu Hayabusa: Ninja Gaiden: Black (XBox)

Upcoming Releases

Dante: Devil May Cry 4 (PS3)
Ryu Hayabusa: Ninja Gaiden: Sigma (PS3)

I actually don't have too much respect for Ryu's fanbase here...Ninja Gaiden seems like a game that could get some decent popularity were it on the PS2, but it's on the XBox...and DMC ain't that popular here in the first place. Sure, there's also DOA and the originals, but I can't see the latter helping too much and Kasumi just showed us how much the former was worth a few days ago. Now, of course this isn't anything new to most...I just expect that Hayabusa is much more dependent on his picture than not. Pre-KH2 Sora is not a character that is hanging with Zero, sorry.

However, there is a core fanbase that Ryu has...I'm a part of that fanbase. And just to really get you thinking, "lol Lopen Hunter"...I think we might see some 'Action Game SFF' going on here. If you've played DMC and the next-gen NG, you should know that the style of gameplay is incredibly similar -- sure, there are huge differences, but in the end they come down to hardcore badass tough-as-nails action games with extremely badass protagonists. Dante gets points for style and flair as well as being on the PS2...so I think that fans of both will abnormally default to him. I will. Lopen will. Um...has anyone else on this board even played NG?

...you guys suck. At any rate, what's the end result to this crackpot theory? Dante matching Zero's performance. Lopen Hunter, signing off!

Karma Hunter's Vote: Dante. lol SFF

Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Dante with 63.86%.

I have no idea why I'm going high, no matter what I do Lopen's going to go higher. =(

Upset Potential: 0%

It's not that Hayabusa's a pushover, it's that he can't win...



Guest’s Analysis - Leonhart Forever

First of all, let me say that this match has one of the best (serious) pictures we’ve ever had, so hats off to CJayC for a great job there. As I’m writing this, Riku has 44%+ on Yoshi, leaving the door wide open for Dante to assert himself as the favorite next round with an impressive performance here. Since I have him winning in my bracket, that’s exactly what I’m hoping he’ll do.

Last year, Dante looked stronger than he’s ever been before, scoring 46% on eventual Devil Division winner Vincent Valentine, who went on to get 45% on Crono. Needless to say, it was a lot more impressive than that bomb job against Sonic the year before. However, due to the size of his boost, many people have been led to believe that his ranking is too high, which is certainly possible. This match could be the first sign of whether or not the Devil Division is overrated, depending on what Dante does here.

After getting embarrassed by Sora in 2004, Hayabusa returned to the field in 2005 and pulled a respectable performance on Zero. Many attributed this to having a ninja picture, which he did not have against Sora. Either way, he certainly looked better than he had. He doesn’t have to worry about underperforming based on the picture, as he has one of the best anyone has ever had. If anything, he may become the beneficiary of picture voting this time, rather than a potential victim.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2006 7:46:44 PM | message detail
As for the match itself, I see Dante breaking 60% without much trouble. While Hayabusa has had Ninja Gaiden Black since last year, Devil May Cry 3 has continued to sell enough to the point where the two may cancel out. If he struggles to hit that completely arbitrary 60% mark that I have designated for him, I’ll probably start questioning his match with Yoshi a little more. As it stands right now, I’m expecting a solid performance out of Dante to establish himself as the favorite for the second round.

Kind reminder: The Devil Division isn’t overrated, folks! You’re about to find out!

Leonhart’s BOLD Prediction: Dante Sparda with 63.72%

That’s right! Better than Zero!



Crew Consensus: lol statheads. Only HM deviates from the 63-65% range we all have for Dante.
BDawg | Posted 9/30/2006 7:51:05 PM | message detail
I freaking hate Dante and I don't even know why. There is nothing I want more than a Dante choke. But clearly the other Ryu is not up to it.
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Should I start running now?
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/30/2006 7:52:26 PM | message detail
You hate Dante because you hate over-the-top insane action/acrobatics and cheesy one-liners...in other words, you hate HAPPINESS. =(
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Commit it to memory.
BDawg | Posted 9/30/2006 8:48:49 PM | message detail
That's the funny thing I've never come near any of those games I just look at his pics and say "I think I should hate that guy".
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Should I start running now?
therealmnm | Posted 9/30/2006 8:49:59 PM | message detail
I hate all this disrespect for Ryu. :( And somehow, I feel that he will get blown out... Decisive matches have been a bit higher on the blowout side. Few people are losing respectably for some reason this year.
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Vote for Soma Cruz
Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
Draco1214 | Posted 9/30/2006 8:50:03 PM | message detail
Dante is awesome. Hayabusa is awesome.

I'm torn on who to vote for...;_;
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Character Battle V Score - 19/19 points
Current Prediction - Dante vs. Ryu Hayabusa
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/30/2006 8:51:20 PM | message detail
Hayabusa is indeed made of win, but he could stand to entertain me a little more. He's more badass than Dante, though, so a consolation victory for him there.
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Commit it to memory.
charmander6000 | Posted 9/30/2006 8:54:26 PM | message detail
Looks like we'll be barely missing the highest vote total by a few hundred votes.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2006 8:57:26 PM | message detail
Prediction under 50?

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Draco1214 | Posted 9/30/2006 8:57:58 PM | message detail
Yoshi with 52% of the brackets.
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Character Battle V Score - 19/19 points
Current Prediction - Dante vs. Ryu Hayabusa
Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2006 9:00:15 PM | message detail
Dante 65% 26
Ryu Hayabusa 35% 14
TOTAL VOTES 40

Woo
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Dante vs. Ryu H. - Bracket: Dante - Vote: Dante (18/19)
Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2006 9:00:34 PM | message detail
Only 58.08% for Yoshi. lol KH
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Dante vs. Ryu H. - Bracket: Dante - Vote: Dante (18/19)
Janus5000 | Posted 9/30/2006 9:00:47 PM | message detail
Dante 50% 6
Ryu Hayabusa 50% 6
TOTAL VOTES 12

Yoshi was the favorite, and half the perfects still fall...
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2006 9:00:57 PM | message detail
Dante 67.92% 108
Ryu Hayabusa 32.08% 51
TOTAL VOTES 159

Keep bringing it down >_<

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/30/2006 9:01:27 PM | message detail
Well, Yoshi's done.

*rips up bracket and throws it out window*
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
charmander6000 | Posted 9/30/2006 9:01:42 PM | message detail
Down to 1051 perfects, I guess many did take the high seed.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Draco1214 | Posted 9/30/2006 9:02:22 PM | message detail
Dante's kicking some ass. Sad to see Hayabusa go like this, but at least I feel a hell of a lot better about him beating Yoshi now.
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Character Battle V Score - 19/19 points
Current Prediction - Dante vs. Ryu Hayabusa
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/30/2006 9:02:25 PM | message detail
Dante for the doubling, whooo
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/30/2006 9:02:32 PM | message detail
Whoa; 1200 of the 2200 perfects fell. What a bunch of chalk loving wussies.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/30/2006 9:02:37 PM | message detail
Hmm... yo, don't give up just yet. Ryu's main power belongs to the day vote!
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Dante vs. Ryu Hayabusa/ Bracket: Dante / Vote: Ryu (17/18)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Sora / Vote: Tingle
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/30/2006 9:03:06 PM | message detail
Yeah, it's definitely going down, I was just having a little fun =D
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/30/2006 9:03:48 PM | message detail
Hmm... yo, don't give up just yet. Ryu's main power belongs to the day vote!

Na, it was just one of those right-after-the-match-starts fun comments that someone is bound to take seriously!
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/30/2006 9:04:25 PM | message detail
After never getting an even update all day, on the last update of the match, Riku and Yoshi both got 134 votes. It's like they were fighting all day, but then they made a truce and became friends. >___>
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caps
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/30/2006 9:04:34 PM | message detail
... <_< Yeah, someone like me!
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Dante vs. Ryu Hayabusa/ Bracket: Dante / Vote: Ryu (18/19)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Sora / Vote: Tingle
Lopen | Posted 9/30/2006 9:04:54 PM | message detail
Hopefully Dante goes up... I can't have my pick in jeopardy!

I can't believe you all went so high, though... jeez. I thought Zero > Dante to you fellows?
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
shadow8021 | Posted 9/30/2006 9:05:09 PM | message detail
Yeah, plus Dante is always known to start fast, but fall off a bit as the day goes on. It's what cost him a win against Vincent last year.
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Character Battle Score: 19/19
Today's Pick: Dante
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/30/2006 9:05:29 PM | message detail
.. It.. didn't even go down. o_O
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Dante vs. Ryu Hayabusa/ Bracket: Dante / Vote: Ryu (18/19)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Sora / Vote: Tingle
Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2006 9:05:30 PM | message detail
Dante > Yoshi! Let's Rock!!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Dante vs. Ryu H. - Bracket: Dante - Vote: Dante (18/19)
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/30/2006 9:05:37 PM | message detail
Zero did even better than this in his first 5 minutes against Hayabusa.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
dethfdddddh | Posted 9/30/2006 9:05:48 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]