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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 372

red sox 777 | Posted 9/30/2006 9:03:21 AM | message detail
I thought CJayC hates Crono.
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"........!" ~Magus
shadow8021 | Posted 9/30/2006 9:16:34 AM | message detail
I dunno about you guys, but if Riku and Frog ever met again, I think Riku could possibly win with over 55%, especially if he gets the higher seed again.
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Character Battle Score: 18/18
Today's Pick: Yoshi
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/30/2006 9:32:48 AM | message detail
This may be a stupid question to some people but...

Yoshi/Ryu?
Rikku/Riku?

Who wins?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/30/2006 9:37:38 AM | message detail
Yoshi > Ryu.

hmm.. I'd probably still take Rikku over Riku. Don't know how the SFF tips over but in terms of indirect strength, Rikku wins.
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Riku vs. Yoshi / Bracket: Yoshi / Vote: Yoshi (17/18)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Dante / Vote: Ryu
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/30/2006 9:54:01 AM | message detail
Wow, Riku is totally falling apart with the day vote. Told you so!
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LeonhartForever | Posted 9/30/2006 9:55:41 AM | message detail
I'll take a chance on Ryu > Yoshi. Sure, Bowser beat him worse than he beat Yoshi, but I think he's stronger than he was in 2003, and I don't think Yoshi has grown quite as much.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
LeonhartForever | Posted 9/30/2006 10:16:37 AM | message detail
Before we even see Dante in action tomorrow...

Yoshi pickers - Confidence in Yoshi up, down, or the same?
Dante pickers - Confidence in Dante up, down, or the same?

As one who picked Dante, I feel a little better about taking him now, though we'll have to wait and see what he does.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
Draco1214 | Posted 9/30/2006 10:19:34 AM | message detail
Nothing about this match tells me anything about the upcoming Yoshi/Dante match. As long as Dante doesn't completely bomb against Hayabusa, I'll feel the same way as I did when I first picked Dante to win that match.
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Character Battle V Score - 18/18 points
Current Prediction - Riku vs. Yoshi
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/30/2006 10:20:55 AM | message detail
Confidence in Dante the same. Sora would probably beat Yoshi now, and Dante should beat Sora's % on Ryu H.
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Draco1214 | Posted 9/30/2006 10:22:39 AM | message detail
FACT or FICTION: Riku will win at least one update before this match ends.
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Character Battle V Score - 18/18 points
Current Prediction - Riku vs. Yoshi
Draco1214 | Posted 9/30/2006 10:26:03 AM | message detail
Looks like Riku's putting the KH day vote into good use now. Three .03% gains in a row.
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Character Battle V Score - 18/18 points
Current Prediction - Riku vs. Yoshi
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/30/2006 10:26:22 AM | message detail
Fact, and it damn well better be, as he lost by one vote several times.
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Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2006 10:27:36 AM | message detail
I hate to be honest, but this match does make me feel better about having Dante > Yoshi, though I'd love to see Yoshi win that. He isn't living up to my expectations on Riku right now.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Riku vs. Yoshi - Bracket: Yoshi - Vote: Yoshi (17/18)
Kaxon | Posted 9/30/2006 10:29:48 AM | message detail
Yeah, I suspect he doesn't allow the poll to close with a tie. Just a gut feeling.

I doubt he's taken it into account. It wouldn't be that hard to work around, but unless he's specifically put something in place to avoid a tie, then the poll would just change like normal and there'd be chaos.
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....TCELES B HSUP
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/30/2006 10:29:52 AM | message detail
Whoa, KH2 number 2 on the FAQ list now!
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/30/2006 10:46:49 AM | message detail
I'm surprised that Yoshi has held his own during the day here.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI
Dekar TKB | Posted 9/30/2006 11:11:45 AM | message detail
Yoshi pickers - Confidence in Yoshi up, down, or the same?

I picked Yoshi, and this match has gone almost exactly how I expected it to (55.82% oracle prediction.) My confidence is at the exact same level it was before this match.

Which is to say, completely shot. That match killed me while making my bracket. I ended up going with Yoshi based on pure gut...And regretted it immediately after the bracket was closed. The more I think about it, the more I suspect that Dante is a little stronger than he looked in 2k5. DMC3/Special edition has been selling very well this year, and I never really bought into the Devil Division being overrated. If I could change my pick at this point, I probably would. Either way, I think the match is too damned close for either side winning to be a certainty. It might end up being the closest match of the contest.
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Chief of Patrol in Sir Chris' police force DA!
Captain Falcon for Sc2k6! www.rpgdl.com
Tediz247 | Posted 9/30/2006 11:17:59 AM | message detail
Yeah, I'm feeling the same way as Dekar. I was banking on Yoshi being SFFed very heavily by Mega Man and on NintendoFAQs, but Nintendo hasn't exactly looked like an unstoppable juggernaut yet, and although I expected Riku to make it closer than many people expected, I've been regretting Yoshi > Dante for some time now.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end.
ZSB [aX]
red sox 777 | Posted 9/30/2006 11:20:45 AM | message detail
And Riku cuts the lead by 4.
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"........!" ~Magus
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/30/2006 11:24:06 AM | message detail
YES YES YES YES! Woohoooooooo! My day is complete.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/30/2006 11:29:28 AM | message detail
Nintendo hasn't exactly looked like an unstoppable juggernaut yet

Prior to today, the only non-SFF Nintendo match we had seen was Zelda's, and she looked every bit like an unstoppable juggernaut.

My confidence in Yoshi is about the same now as it was before the match; that is, pretty high. I overshot my prediction a good deal, but I knew it was a risk when making it. I believe Riku had more reason than most to boost from Kingdom Hearts II. He might not have had much screen time, but

*KHII SPOILERS*

He actually ends up joining your party at the end of the game (one of only two non-Disney characters to do so, which also explains why I believe Auron will get a nice boost), and he's the focus of one of the plot's biggest twists.

*END SPOILERS*

It's clearly a different Riku now. Put him up against Frog today, and he'd win with little trouble.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
creativename | Posted 9/30/2006 11:54:59 AM | message detail
I honestly am surprised that the people who thought Riku would win the day vote were right. I thought Yoshi would do better during the day than at night. It seems that Kingdom Hearts really is the day vote king, even ahead of Nintendo.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/30/2006 11:57:28 AM | message detail
Nintendo has more balanced power. It's much easier to be crowned the Day Vote King when you kinda suck at night. Nintendo doesn't have that "added bonus."
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
creativename | Posted 9/30/2006 11:58:55 AM | message detail
Dante pickers - Confidence in Dante up, down, or the same?

I was fairly confident in Dante from the start, and this has made it go up. While I believe Rikku boosted, this isn't what you'd call an impressive performance by Yoshi regardless. I don't think this match tells us too much, but I don't think it tells us any less than tomorrow's match will, because I think Hayabusa has boosted too.
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/30/2006 12:00:37 PM | message detail
Dante will still be able to edge out Yoshi, I believe. 55/45 sounds about right.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
creativename | Posted 9/30/2006 12:01:04 PM | message detail
Nintendo has more balanced power. It's much easier to be crowned the Day Vote King when you kinda suck at night. Nintendo doesn't have that "added bonus."

Indeed, and as I was about to say the corollary to it being the day vote king is that it is the ultimate board vote jobber.

But Nintendo (Mario Bros. characters more specifically) does have a good day vote, usually better than their night vote.
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/30/2006 12:11:39 PM | message detail
2006-09-30 15:10:01 37452 48157 43.75% 56.25% 85609 10705
2006-09-30 15:05:02 37186 47924 43.69% 56.31% 85110 10738

...
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/30/2006 12:12:06 PM | message detail
Something weird must have happened.
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Riku vs. Yoshi / Bracket: Yoshi / Vote: Yoshi (17/18)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Dante / Vote: Ryu
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/30/2006 12:15:00 PM | message detail
Riku got more votes.
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Heroic Mario | Posted 9/30/2006 12:15:24 PM | message detail
Awesome. This is almost right in line with my prediction of 56%.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
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Heroic Mario | Posted 9/30/2006 12:19:13 PM | message detail
Dante pickers - Confidence in Dante up, down, or the same?

Really about the same. This match is going how I expected it almost perfectly, so I can't say my confidence has gone up or down based on this match -- and it probably won't unless Dante really screws up tomorrow with a big underperformance.


but Nintendo hasn't exactly looked like an unstoppable juggernaut yet,

It has not really had any chance to look like one yet. Zelda is about as dominative as we've seen from the Nintendo camp so far, but that was against untested fodder. But, I wouldn't have expected unstoppable domination this year anyway with what Square had.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
transience | Posted 9/30/2006 1:40:10 PM | message detail
wow, the kids woke up I guess! I was afraid the KH day vote was a bit overstated, but it looks like I was wrong. good show KH, it's nice to see Nintendo get a taste of its own day vote for once. KH2 boost seems very, very real unless Yoshi is just really overrated, and I doubt that. I can't wait for the Yoshi/Dante match, it's maybe my most anticipated match of round 2. I wonder how low Riku can go. Draco's looking pretty smart to me here!
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xyzzy
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/30/2006 1:41:21 PM | message detail
So does this mean that Axel > Mega Man?

>__________________>
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CB5 Points: 17/18, Current Oracle placement: 13/159
Now playing: Okami
Draco1214 | Posted 9/30/2006 1:49:20 PM | message detail
Heh, thanks tranny!

I'm curious to see how Axel does myself. I wonder if he can avoid the tripling. Probably a tall order, but meh.

Also, expect Hayabusa to break 40% tomorrow. Not because of Dante being overrated, but because I think highly of Hayabusa's performance against Zero.

My being on a roll will probably crash hard on Oct. 3rd, though.
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Character Battle V Score - 18/18 points
Current Prediction - Riku vs. Yoshi
transience | Posted 9/30/2006 1:51:50 PM | message detail
so do you think Dante beats Zero with ease? cause I'd pick Zero in that case.
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xyzzy
Draco1214 | Posted 9/30/2006 1:53:30 PM | message detail
Actually, I'd take Zero over Dante. The reason why I think Hayabusa will break 40% is because I think Dante's weaker than Zero, who got 63% on Hayabusa last year.
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Character Battle V Score - 18/18 points
Current Prediction - Riku vs. Yoshi
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/30/2006 1:58:46 PM | message detail
Riku cuts the lead by 10!

And yeah, Draco is smart. Kinda like how FastFalcon05's spreads seem so outrageous and I always laugh at him, yet they turn out to be exactly on the mark. Mind-boggling.
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transience | Posted 9/30/2006 2:01:54 PM | message detail
oh, durr. you can tell I just woke up.
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 9/30/2006 2:09:50 PM | message detail
man, if the KH2 boost is worth 5% or so like this is seeming to indicate, I'd hate to have seen Kairi/Claire before KH2. that would have been a blowout.
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xyzzy
LeonhartForever | Posted 9/30/2006 2:19:33 PM | message detail
I'm surprised that Yoshi has held his own during the day here.

Held his own? Riku has gained nearly 2% since morning rolled around. Exactly how much were you expecting him to gain?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
LeonhartForever | Posted 9/30/2006 2:20:25 PM | message detail
And if Hayabusa breaks 40% tomorrow, it's because he's stronger than he was last year. Zero may beat Dante, but it'd be no means an easy victory.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/30/2006 2:32:16 PM | message detail
I think Dante has a better chance of approaching the doubling than Hayabusa does of breaking 40%. It's a battle of two stereotypical badass-types; Dante easily has the upper hand. I wouldn't be too surprised if he outperforms Zero and the board goes nuts.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/30/2006 2:33:26 PM | message detail
Yeah. Generic badass SFF FTW
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Draco1214 | Posted 9/30/2006 2:34:06 PM | message detail
If Dante outperforms Zero, I'd start to worry about Zero's chances of getting past Round 1.

And I'd feel a hell of a lot better about Vincent.
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Character Battle V Score - 18/18 points
Current Prediction - Riku vs. Yoshi
transience | Posted 9/30/2006 2:36:13 PM | message detail
I.. kind of agree with yoblazer, but I think people would be split down the middle so it wouldn't really be noticable. I won't really be surprised if it happens though.

people seem to be picking Dante with more than a doubling in the Oracle though, so I think people will go nuts even if he gets a mere 60%.
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xyzzy
LeonhartForever | Posted 9/30/2006 2:37:11 PM | message detail
Meh, if Dante only does slightly better than Zero, I wouldn't be scared of him losing to Luigi quite yet. After all, the SC2K5 stats project him slightly above Zero, who is still slightly above Luigi. It'd just make me feel better about Vincent, and then Dante next round.

And then inevitable Squall > Snake!
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/30/2006 2:38:11 PM | message detail
It's the same reason why people argue that no one could have given Tanner a worse beating than Snake. Dante just strikes me as one of the best choices to perform like a champ on Ryu.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
Janus5000 | Posted 9/30/2006 2:38:13 PM | message detail
...It's been a while since I've played the MMX series, but how is Zero not a stereotypical badass? >_>
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/30/2006 2:38:41 PM | message detail
He's a robot thingy. Duuuuuuh
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
LeonhartForever | Posted 9/30/2006 2:38:57 PM | message detail
Zero is one in a sense, but not really in the same way as Snake, Hayabusa, or Dante are.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D