GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 372
| Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 9/29/2006 10:06:34 PM | message detail |
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Yoshi is still losing a decent bit of percentage here. Riku's now over 43% and I'm expecting Riku to do better during the day. --- Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/29/2006 10:07:46 PM | message detail |
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Yoshi's already a bit under his projection and the day vote hasnt
hit yet. I think he may be a wee bit overrated, and such a fact makes
me even more confident in Zero>Luigi. Are you totally blind of KH2 or something? --- Riku vs. Yoshi / Bracket: Yoshi / Vote: Yoshi (17/18) Tomorrow / Bracket: Dante / Vote: Ryu |
| MarkSmith | Posted 9/29/2006 10:08:07 PM | message detail |
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I think Riku's gonna break 45%. Attn: poeple who took Luigi this round: kiss your brackets goodbye. --- PROUDEST MEMBER OF THE FIGHTIN' TEXAS AGGIE CLASS OF 2010 Next game: ARMY (2-0) |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/29/2006 10:08:30 PM | message detail |
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I honestly can't see Yoshi failing the day vote at all. At the very minumum I can see Riku keeping the percent close to even. TuRtLe ~~~ I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory. |
| Janus5000 | Posted 9/29/2006 10:08:31 PM | message detail |
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That was Riku's best update so far. Riku will obviously completely own the DAR-, er, night vote. --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4 |
| MarkSmith | Posted 9/29/2006 10:10:41 PM | message detail |
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MarioSuperstar Posted 9/29/2006 11:07:46 PM message detail Yoshi's already a bit under his projection and the day vote hasnt hit yet. I think he may be a wee bit overrated, and such a fact makes me even more confident in Zero>Luigi. Are you totally blind of KH2 or something? Supposedly though this whole "lol Nintendofaqs" logic means Nintendo characters boost and exceed their projections no matter what this year. Its the reason people are picking Luigi. This match shows how poor that logic is. --- PROUDEST MEMBER OF THE FIGHTIN' TEXAS AGGIE CLASS OF 2010 Next game: ARMY (2-0) |
| AmazingKirby | Posted 9/29/2006 10:11:35 PM | message detail |
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I think Riku is getting the night vote better than he will the day
vote. Considering KH's opponents have been Castlevania, Resident Evil,
and Metal Gear, I think it can get a good night vote with someone like
Yoshi. --- caps |
| Cavalier Lowen | Posted 9/29/2006 10:13:11 PM | message detail |
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Supposedly though this whole "lol Nintendofaqs" logic means Nintendo
characters boost and exceed their projections no matter what this year. Er, you do know Riku was in KH2 right? The one thing that could possibly cancel out NintendoFAQs? Besides, Yoshi has no real projections since no one has a real base value to project him on. --- Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum! |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/29/2006 10:14:24 PM | message detail |
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This match shows how poor that logic is. No it doesn't. You can't just judge it from a character who is not only potentially underrated due to Samus' SFF match with Mario, but getting a boost to boot. --- Riku vs. Yoshi / Bracket: Yoshi / Vote: Yoshi (17/18) Tomorrow / Bracket: Dante / Vote: Ryu |
| VanGauard | Posted 9/29/2006 10:16:57 PM | message detail |
| Man, My theory about how you guys might was just all wrong. My entry is totally screwed up. but in the long run I suppose it doesn't matter, Samus kicks everyones ass! But I am never gonna win, so like I said it doesn't matter. |
| transience | Posted 9/29/2006 10:36:16 PM | message detail |
| hmm.. pretty much what I expected here. I don't
expect the percentage to fluctuate too much here. KH has shown that
it's got a strong day vote, but it's always been against things that suck
in the day - Castlevania, Resident Evil, etc. Nintendo is not just
going to fold in the daytime. KH might drop the percentage by 1% or so,
but I wouldn't expect this to turn into Riku / Frog II. Frog and Yoshi
are miles apart. and while we're at it, Halo / Master Chief is kind of
the same way. it's always had crappy day vote opponents so it looks
more fearsome than it really is. also, lol @ people saying every match was "obvious" well after they're done instead of before. especially when said person has been trying to debate them for the last two weeks. --- xyzzy |
| AmazingKirby | Posted 9/29/2006 10:38:46 PM | message detail |
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lol @ every match being pretty much what tranny expected. --- caps |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/29/2006 10:39:13 PM | message detail |
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tranny's prediction is pretty much what I expected --- CB5 Points: 17/18, Current Oracle placement: 13/159 Now playing: Okami |
| transience | Posted 9/29/2006 10:40:00 PM | message detail |
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not yesterday's!! --- xyzzy |
| transience | Posted 9/29/2006 10:40:55 PM | message detail |
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hey, I got a thirteenth place oracle prediction. and I was only off like 8%! everyone else is so screwed --- xyzzy |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/29/2006 10:58:44 PM | message detail |
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I sometimes debate matches that seem obvious, at least in my eyes. =P --- Riku vs. Yoshi / Bracket: Yoshi / Vote: Yoshi (17/18) Tomorrow / Bracket: Dante / Vote: Ryu |
| transience | Posted 9/29/2006 11:09:49 PM | message detail |
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at 2:05, this match has 17946 votes. to compare it to some other matches: Aeris/Marle: 17193 Tifa/Ivy: 19003 The Boss / Celes: 17718 man, Tifa/Ivy had a ton of votes. go breasts. --- xyzzy |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/29/2006 11:11:04 PM | message detail |
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Hmm.. is this Riku's weakest time now? --- Riku vs. Yoshi / Bracket: Yoshi / Vote: Yoshi (17/18) Tomorrow / Bracket: Dante / Vote: Ryu |
| transience | Posted 9/29/2006 11:12:26 PM | message detail |
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kinda hard to tell... Claire, Frog and Alucard all are horrible in the
daytime. I'd say KH is decent at night and strong in the day. Nintendo
characters are generally the same way. --- xyzzy |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/30/2006 12:34:56 AM | message detail |
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I'm pleasantly surprised that Yoshi has stabalized around 57%. That's a
little under projection, but easily explained with a KH2 boost and
seeding. ~*ST*~ --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI |
| transience | Posted 9/30/2006 1:23:35 AM | message detail |
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Yoshi's been slowly gaining here for the last two hours or so. Nintendo beating Square at night?! just for kicks: Riku/Hayabusa, percentages. that way we can gauge Dante's performance tomorrow. --- xyzzy |
| consolefreak | Posted 9/30/2006 2:17:35 AM | message detail |
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Something interesting: Kingdom Hearts II has literally been 8, 9, or
10 on the Top FAQs for the last 3 weeks or so. Today, it is number 5.
Europe boost? Probably. Heh. I was so curious to see if the Europe release could boost KH2 up a bit. Glad to see it did! It'll be interesting to see if KH2 can climb a bit higher with today's match and Europe's release really kicking in. Riku's doing a little worse than I expected here. Hopefully he can cut the percentage down some, though Samus finished with a higher percentage against Sora than she had this far into the match. Still a good performance for Riku. --- CB: 18/18. Today: Riku vs. Yoshi Tomorrow: Dante vs. Ryu. |
| __Smurf__ | Posted 9/30/2006 2:18:31 AM | message detail |
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And I guess the slight chance Sora had at MegaMan is gone now too. >_< --- Smurf. The Cream of Knuckles Fanboyism. |
| Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 9/30/2006 2:50:54 AM | message detail |
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We will never have a perfect bracket ever for a 64 character battle at
this rate. This has been pretty much the easiest contest to predict and
yet no one will end even close to perfect. >_< --- Can't think of a good sig. |
| transience | Posted 9/30/2006 2:56:59 AM | message detail |
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you're nuts if you think this is the easiest contest to predict. 2k4 was easier than this. --- xyzzy |
| Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 9/30/2006 3:09:11 AM | message detail |
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Well its one of the easiest. No one was perfect in 2004 either. --- Can't think of a good sig. |
| transience | Posted 9/30/2006 3:11:00 AM | message detail |
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and I'll be surprised -- no, shocked if anyone goes perfect in this
one. the battle royale is likely to have Something Weird happen and
none of us have any idea what that something is. throw in a bunch of
debated matches in the actual bracket and it's pretty hard to predict. --- xyzzy |
| greatone10 | Posted 9/30/2006 4:45:41 AM | message detail |
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If Sora had not been SFFed in 2003, we would have had many perfects. --- RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005 Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest. |
| cyko | Posted 9/30/2006 5:23:23 AM | message detail |
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i still think we might wind up with a perfect bracket at the end of the
regular bracket. the Battle Royale is a whole different beast, but
there's only about 16 more debated matches in the regular bracket. i
would be so unbelieved ticked if i was the guy to get a perfect regular
bracket and lose it in the Battle Royale. and i'm surprised that noone has mentioned it yet, but Riku has already come VERY close to wining an update. 2 updates ago Riku only lost by five votes. he also lost two updates by a single vote in the past hour. it's been somewhat inconsistent, but Riku could still pull this down into the 55/45 range. which isn't far from what i expected. --- i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest. Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!! |
| Kaxon | Posted 9/30/2006 6:17:25 AM | message detail |
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16 debated matches is a lot. 2^16 is 65536, much more than the number
of remaining perfect brackets. Of course those matches aren't exactly
50/50, but if the underdog wins one of them it considerably cuts down
the number of perfect brackets remaining. --- CATS's Road to the Character Battle V Championship Round 1: Sonic |
| Xuxon | Posted 9/30/2006 6:29:04 AM | message detail |
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Day vote seems clearly in favor of Riku. Yoshi's gotten 54.79% of the
vote in the last hour, and I can see it continuing fairly similar to
this until the end of the poll. --- Take off every sig. |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 9/30/2006 7:58:55 AM | message detail |
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Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2006 12:03:09 AM | message detail Yeah, it'll get closer, but there's no way this is falling under 60% LOL Moltar If Sora had not been SFFed in 2003, we would have had many perfects. Or if the contest winner hadn't picked KOS-MOS > Ryu. Still can't get over that. Either way, Riku's over 43% and will probably be gaining for a while, from the looks of the recent percentages. Let's make a few rough estimates off of this, shall we? If Yoshi's given 2005 value is correct, Riku (percentage is 43.05% as I'm doing this) would currently stand at 24.98% on BL, .01% ahead of Frog. If Yoshi is equal to Luigi's 2005 value, then Riku would currently stand at 26.97% on BL, in between Vivi and Rikku. He would beat his 2005 self with 55.27% in this case. If Yoshi/Luigi 2004 holds to proportion, Yoshi would be at approximately 34.40% on BL, meaning Riku would currently stand at 29.61% on BL, nearly equal to Tidus and above 2005 Yoshi's given value. He beats his 2005 self with 59.25% in this case. Of course, we must take into account that Riku and not just Yoshi may be underrated by a bit as well since he was in Samus's division, but we can draw a few possibilities from this (especially considering Riku will probably finish with more than what he has now): 1. If Yoshi really is at 34.40% on BL, watch out for Sora. Riku's KHII gain should pale in comparison to what he gets. If Sora gains proportionally what Riku does based on his 2004 value, he'd be worth about 34.65% on BL, right below Kirby 2005. This means Mega Man wins with 55.34% in their matchup. Keep in mind that Sora has reason to gain more than Riku as well, and that's...scary. 2. For some reason, Yoshi did not gain quite as much as his other Nintendo counterparts. There's really no explanation for this, but I don't think Riku's boost based off of Yoshi/Luigi is quite that big. He might NOT be able to beat Luigi anymore...or at least not with ease. 3. If Yoshi's given 2005 value is somehow correct, Riku's KHII isn't very big at all, which is almost what you'd expect given his particular role. If that's the case, Dante is going to roll over him. Oh, and of course, this gives signs of good things for Squall > Snake! Just had to throw that one in there! --- Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship: Round 1: Tidus |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 9/30/2006 8:00:34 AM | message detail |
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Riku's KHII boost isn't very big at all, that should say. --- Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship: Round 1: Tidus |
| __Smurf__ | Posted 9/30/2006 8:01:17 AM | message detail |
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Whatever gain Squall got, Snake can match it. --- Smurf. The Cream of Knuckles Fanboyism. |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 9/30/2006 8:02:03 AM | message detail |
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Against Tidus? No, Snake can't match that. Of course, there's a good reason why he can't. --- Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship: Round 1: Tidus |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/30/2006 8:07:27 AM | message detail |
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Psh, Snake can SFF anything. 80%+ on Tidus? Believe it, I say! Anyway, Squall can boost to Snake's 2005 level. That's okay, Snake's beating Mega Man! And then Mega Man's beating Samus! ...don't question it! --- Commit it to memory. |
| Heroic Viktor | Posted 9/30/2006 8:09:23 AM | message detail |
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Three days away from the most earth shattering match ever. Does the
universe implode? Or does the ULTIMATE cult hero provide, definitively,
that GFNW? I am not sure I could be more excited. --- Trivia Team Two Comps and a Tnote RIP - Tnote827 (4/4/05) |
| Heroic Viktor | Posted 9/30/2006 8:14:57 AM | message detail |
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Also, might as well pretend there are only 2204 perfect brackets, as I
apparently forgot to put Crono>Samus in the final, so my final match
has the dreaded -none- winning. Come on tie! --- Trivia Team Two Comps and a Tnote RIP - Tnote827 (4/4/05) |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 9/30/2006 8:17:57 AM | message detail |
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That's a question that's always bugged me, actually. What WOULD Cjay do if there was a tie? Run it for an extra 10 minutes? --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz Hi-ho, Hi-ho, Z1m Zum, Z1m Zum...our guru champ. |
| Guess how many teens | Posted 9/30/2006 8:21:03 AM | message detail |
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I think he'd run it for an extra day <_< --- I got owned Z1mZum, the BSE Guru Champion! |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/30/2006 8:22:31 AM | message detail |
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I say about an hour. --- Riku vs. Yoshi / Bracket: Yoshi / Vote: Yoshi (17/18) Tomorrow / Bracket: Dante / Vote: Ryu |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 9/30/2006 8:22:47 AM | message detail |
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Uhhh...He can program it to where the poll doesn't close on a tie. A match does not have to run for exactly 24 hours. --- Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship: Round 1: Tidus |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/30/2006 8:23:48 AM | message detail |
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Yeah, I suspect he doesn't allow the poll to close with a tie. Just a gut feeling. --- Commit it to memory. |
| charmander6000 | Posted 9/30/2006 8:31:30 AM | message detail |
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He'd close it, but not switch the match, see that there's a tie and open it for like a second or two then close it again. --- "I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush |
| voltch | Posted 9/30/2006 8:35:09 AM | message detail |
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so how does this match reflect on sora? --- Z1mZum humiliated me to hell and back in the Best.Series.Ever contest. |
| Ed Bellis | Posted 9/30/2006 8:35:16 AM | message detail |
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Or if the contest winner hadn't picked KOS-MOS > Ryu. Still can't get over that. Didn't balrog0 claim that was a mistake on his part? I think I remember him saying that. --- This was Ed Bellis, servant to the mighty Guru Z1mZum. Congrats, buddy! |
| swirIdude | Posted 9/30/2006 8:36:23 AM | message detail |
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Didn't balrog0 claim that was a mistake on his part? I think I remember him saying that. Winner. --- The FFP is the best topic on the board. It's a fact, look it up. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30272411 |
| Haste_2 | Posted 9/30/2006 8:38:54 AM | message detail |
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CJayC would cast the tiebreaking vote, duh! --- Sign the Petition for more stats in the GameFAQs Contests here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799 |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 9/30/2006 8:39:26 AM | message detail |
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Which means Crono wins! --- Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship: Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D |
| Who Cares? | Posted 9/30/2006 9:00:51 AM | message detail |
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Votals at the halfway mark: Tifa/Ivy -- 64797 [1st] Riku/Yoshi -- 63269 Yuna/Roll -- 61936 [2nd] Aeris/Marle -- 59514 [5th] The Boss/Celes -- 56916 [9th] Looks like Tifa/Ivy may hold on to it's top spot at least until next week! HOORAY oversized jugs! :P --- Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Lara Croft (October 21th) One down, two to go! *Just 10 days until Tales of the Abyss* |