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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 372

trannyscience | Posted 9/29/2006 1:28:17 PM | message detail
I guess we'll get to find out how much KH2 is worth tomorrow, a lot more than we will today anyway. I'll say 56% or so.
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xyzzy
LeonhartForever | Posted 9/29/2006 1:31:46 PM | message detail
Yes, Riku/Yoshi will be the first of potentially 16 (though many are stretches as far as actually occurring, and it's not possible for ALL to occur) Square/Nintendo matchups:

1. Riku/Yoshi
2. Sora/Tingle
3. Ganondorf/Vincent
4. Crono/Captain Falcon
5. Zelda/Terra
6. Crono/Bowser
7. Samus/Rikku
8. Tifa/Peach
9. Zelda/Aeris
10. Squall/Yoshi (one of the stretches, but hey!)
11. Vincent/Kirby
12. Vincent/Luigi (again, stretches, and not possible for 11 and 12 both to occur)
13. Samus/Tifa
14. Zelda/Yuna
15. Ganondorf/Crono (BIGGEST STRETCH OF ALL!!)
16. Samus/Crono
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Tidus
Haste_2 | Posted 9/29/2006 2:19:18 PM | message detail
You left off Aeris/Samus.

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Sign the Petition for more stats in the GameFAQs Contests here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799
Tediz247 | Posted 9/29/2006 2:19:54 PM | message detail
Another day with almost no percent swing over the day. A sign that SFF isn't as bad as some are proclaiming, or does it mean nothing?
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end.
ZSB [aX]
trannyscience | Posted 9/29/2006 2:20:48 PM | message detail
I wouldn't expect much of a swing with a SFF match. they're the same fanbase after all.
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xyzzy
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/29/2006 2:21:17 PM | message detail
You also forgot Link VS Cloud/Sephiroth
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Supporter of Alucard.
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/29/2006 2:24:26 PM | message detail
Something interesting: Kingdom Hearts II has literally been 8, 9, or 10 on the Top FAQs for the last 3 weeks or so. Today, it is number 5. Europe boost? Probably.
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caps
LeonhartForever | Posted 9/29/2006 2:25:21 PM | message detail
Oh right, Aeris/Samus. Forgot that one.

But SFF matches generally tend to have very little percentage swing. This isn't unusual.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Tidus
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 9/29/2006 2:25:49 PM | message detail
Let's wait for Riku/Yoshi before we talk about this KHIIF
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Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/29/2006 2:26:02 PM | message detail
So what do you guys make of Snake/Soma?
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Squall Leonhart vs. Tidus / Bracket: Squall / Vote: Tidus (16/17)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Yoshi / Vote: Yoshi
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/29/2006 2:27:43 PM | message detail
Soma = ubar fodder or Snake = contest winner

First seems much more likely

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
LeonhartForever | Posted 9/29/2006 2:28:28 PM | message detail
Soma's fodder. There's really no doubt about that one. Can Snake win the male bracket? A slim chance.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Tidus
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/29/2006 2:29:20 PM | message detail
I don't think he qualifies as uber fodder. Just low-fodder.

Uber-fodder is reserved for people like... Roll and Alyx. And probably Jade
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Tediz247 | Posted 9/29/2006 2:30:39 PM | message detail
From MarioSuperstar Posted 9/29/2006 4:26:02 PM #160
So what do you guys make of Snake/Soma?

It makes me feel better about Snake > Mega Man, but realistically, I still think he'll fall short of winning the male bracket. Hopefully he doesn't get a sprite against Mega Man...
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end.
ZSB [aX]
meche313 | Posted 9/29/2006 2:35:09 PM | message detail
well for us on the oracle challenge, we have to predict the KHII before the match starts you know ;)
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Happy Happyists 4th on the Oracle Team Challenge. 3rd on Spread Betting!
meche313 | Posted 9/29/2006 2:35:35 PM | message detail
KHII boost*
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Happy Happyists 4th on the Oracle Team Challenge. 3rd on Spread Betting!
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/29/2006 3:49:15 PM | message detail
I know I'm late in seeing these results (I saw them when I woke up this morning, but I was hungover to hell and assumed I was seeing things), but DAMN is this hilarious. I'd love to see someone try saying that Tidus > Auron after this one.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/29/2006 3:51:02 PM | message detail
Tidus > A....

Nope, cant do it.
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CB5 Points: 16/17, Current Oracle placement: 20/159
Now playing: Okami
therealmnm | Posted 9/29/2006 3:51:47 PM | message detail
Seriously, it's not like Tidus was on the rise in popularity... Am I the only one who isn't surprised, shocked, or brought back by this performance whatsoever?
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Vote for Soma Cruz
Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/29/2006 3:52:52 PM | message detail
Im not really super-surprised. I thought Squall would probably double Tidus, but 70+% is a little more than I imagined.
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CB5 Points: 16/17, Current Oracle placement: 20/159
Now playing: Okami
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/29/2006 3:54:20 PM | message detail
I'm not horribly surprised, but I didn't think Tidus would tank this badly. It's just that this match would have been largely debated had it happened before Tidus/Mega Man.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI
Samurai7 | Posted 9/29/2006 4:06:21 PM | message detail
BOLD PREDICTION Devil Division is actually underrated. >.>

rofl

not really

but meh
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It's a sad fact that you had to derail this topic because you are afraid of the power of the PS3 -- cade
therealmnm | Posted 9/29/2006 4:28:33 PM | message detail
Well even if we had nothing on Tidus since 2k3, I would have taken Squall to beat him and take any SFF along with it. Tidus never seemed to me like someone that should be overly popular to begin with. Honestly, I felt that FFX has been on the decline since 2k3. It was the main reason why I took Ganon over Auron last year. Granted, Yuna and Rikku have FFX-2 while Auron has KH2 under his belt now. But Tidus has nothing since his grand exit in FFX. And frankly, after Kirby beat him so badly I lost all respect for his strength. Tidus may be able to beat the girls from his game, but he still is pretty low on the Square chain to me. I'd even take Vivi to beat him!
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Vote for Soma Cruz
Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/29/2006 4:29:38 PM | message detail
Don't forget Rikku and Yuna were in KHII, too!
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caps
therealmnm | Posted 9/29/2006 4:34:55 PM | message detail
Their appearances were almost as forgettable as Tidus's KH appearance! Probably even more so!
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Vote for Soma Cruz
Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
Garsha_III | Posted 9/29/2006 4:43:17 PM | message detail
Again, I say, that both Rikku and Yuna would perform worse had they been in the match in Tidus's spot.
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George Harrison > Flonne
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/29/2006 4:47:31 PM | message detail
No way. I imagine Rikku/Yuna and Squall's fanbase are much different than Tidus and Squall's.
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caps
trannyscience | Posted 9/29/2006 5:04:22 PM | message detail

HaRRicH asks, "When you make a contest-bracket, how do you go about deciding which matches should be made? Do you look at previous contests, or do you decide by what simply feels close?"

This year, I sorted out all of the contestants by seeds, so I had four each of each gender. From there, I went through and made a list of every past character battle, and which characters went up against which, and split the previously featured characters as far apart as possible to avoid any re-matches. The remaining characters then got dropped into the bracket where there was space, in a couple of cases to create a few interesting first-and-second round matchups. You guess which ones.

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xyzzy
cyko | Posted 9/29/2006 5:12:09 PM | message detail
all that talk about Tanner made me look up the poll updater to find out just how much he sucked. these were the two most awesome 5 minute updates:

17:41:44 - 5 minute UPDATE

Snake - 248 votes (97.64%)
Tanner - 6 votes (2.36%)

20:26:43 - 5 minute UPDATE

Snake - 171 votes (97.71%)
Tanner - 4 votes (2.29%)


and even though it's only a 2 minute update, this one is probably my personal favorite:

01:16:56 UPDATE (after 1 min. 51 sec.)

Snake - 84 votes (98.82%)
Tanner - 1 vote (1.18%)


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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
therealmnm | Posted 9/29/2006 5:16:47 PM | message detail
This year, I sorted out all of the contestants by seeds, so I had four each of each gender. From there, I went through and made a list of every past character battle, and which characters went up against which, and split the previously featured characters as far apart as possible to avoid any re-matches. The remaining characters then got dropped into the bracket where there was space, in a couple of cases to create a few interesting first-and-second round matchups. You guess which ones.

So why the crunk are we seeing Snake/Mega Man again?
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Vote for Soma Cruz
Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
Samurai7 | Posted 9/29/2006 5:19:05 PM | message detail
So why the crunk are we seeing Snake/Mega Man again?

Out of all the match up combinations you can make with Crono, Snake, Mega Man, and Sonic, Snake vs. Sonic and Crono vs. Sonic are the only two that havn't happened (correct me if I'm wrong). We obviously can't do both of those as final four matches.
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It's a sad fact that you had to derail this topic because you are afraid of the power of the PS3 -- cade
cyko | Posted 9/29/2006 5:19:07 PM | message detail
because Sonic vs. Crono is clearly more interesting than Sonic vs. Snake!!

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
trannyscience | Posted 9/29/2006 5:22:02 PM | message detail
I find Sonic / Zero to be more problematic! or Squall/Snake.
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xyzzy
therealmnm | Posted 9/29/2006 5:34:54 PM | message detail
Out of all the match up combinations you can make with Crono, Snake, Mega Man, and Sonic, Snake vs. Sonic and Crono vs. Sonic are the only two that havn't happened (correct me if I'm wrong). We obviously can't do both of those as final four matches.

But there isn't anything even remotely interesting in Snake's way. It's pretty much a guaranteed matchup unless Squall rises to the challenge. At least throw SOME kind of potential wrench in the Snake/Mega Man matchup...
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Vote for Soma Cruz
Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/29/2006 5:48:07 PM | message detail
I just realized Auron got more on Sephiroth than Tidus is getting on Squall.

.....
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caps
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/29/2006 5:53:05 PM | message detail
But there isn't anything even remotely interesting in Snake's way. It's pretty much a guaranteed matchup unless Squall rises to the challenge.

And Squall's showing that he might just be up to it, isn't he?
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Commit it to memory.
BDawg | Posted 9/29/2006 6:01:27 PM | message detail
What is with the gimped part 372 I keep getting when I do a search? And I still don't see why Snake has to be so scared. I mean what would you expect him to do against this overrated/weakened pretty boy?
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Should I start running now?
Aprosenf | Posted 9/29/2006 6:37:26 PM | message detail
Heh, take a look a this poll:

Poll 1445 (11/21/2003)
Who is your favorite all-time Final Fantasy hero?

1202 1.4% Bartz
7883 9.21% Cecil
42003 49.09% Cloud
13032 15.23% Squall
6457 7.55% Terra
5819 6.8% Tidus
3550 4.15% Yuna
5618 6.57% Zidane

TOTAL VOTES: 85564

Take away all of the votes not for Squall and Tidus, and you get Squall winning with 69.13%. Even though we always take these polls with a grain of salt, they tend to overrate the winner. But in this case, because of SFF, they underrated the winner. Weird.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
Samurai7 | Posted 9/29/2006 6:43:17 PM | message detail
6457 7.55% Terra
5819 6.8% Tidus


!!!

Kerrigan = Tidus!!!!
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It's a sad fact that you had to derail this topic because you are afraid of the power of the PS3 -- cade
charmander6000 | Posted 9/29/2006 6:43:20 PM | message detail
Match XIX: (3) Riku vs. (6) Yoshi

Contest History

Riku


Summer 2005
Lost to Frog, 48.33% - 51.67%
Ranked: 45th

Yoshi

Summer 2003
Defeated Conker, 66.46% - 33.54%
Lost to Bowser, 43.66% - 56.34%
Ranked: 23rd

Summer 2004
Defeated Ryo Hazuki, 76.40% - 23.60%
Defeated Luigi Mario, 54.48% - 45.52%
Lost to Link, 18.26% - 81.74%
Ranked: 37th

Summer 2005
Defeated Laharl, 73.66% - 26.34%
Defeated Pac-Man, 72.83% - 27.17%
Lost to Mega Man, 31.92% - 68.08%
Ranked: 32nd

Analysis:

Riku is from Kingdom Hearts and the newly released Kingdom Hearts 2. Last year Riku was expected to get crush by Frog, instead he showed Frog the fraud that he really was and in the end Riku ended being a decent character. Yoshi is from the Super Mario Bros. series. Being in the contests for 3 years and still we don’t have a good reading on Yoshi. His 2k5 is based on if Laharl would be constant and his other number is behind Bowser.

Yoshi may be the huge favorite and has more possible advantages, but if Riku played his cards right and have a little luck he could really make this into a match. Many people think Yoshi is underrated in the x-stats because he didn’t get as high of a boost as Bowser and Luigi. I do believe that Yoshi is underrated, but the reason that people assume that he’ll still be between Bowser and Luigi was because of the past. In 2k5 like every single year has a different population that votes (try to find many people who have been voting since 2k2 or 2k3), which is one of the reasons why the x-stats don’t go the way it says and in 2k5 it was more pro-Nintendo. Let’s say those voters liked Luigi a lot more than Yoshi and since they weren’t that far apart Luigi could’ve easily made the gap and get ahead of Yoshi. Now that was only a theory and Yoshi could be between Bowser and Luigi, but we shouldn’t assume that it will.

The biggest factor in 2k3 is back with the release of Kingdom Hearts 2 not so long ago. It is almost expected that Riku will gain from it, but the question is by how much. This will be the first match that we’ll actually get to test some of the effects of KH2 and even then us not having that much information on Yoshi will make it look almost worthless (unless Riku goes 50/50 with Yoshi), but I do say that KH2 was probably the biggest reason why Kairi won her match against Claire. Like the first game KH2 was very well received by GameFAQs and with the presences of Axel in the contest and the high seeds from Sora/Kairi/Riku it looks like the fans haven’t forgotten about them, but as we’ve seen in the past high seeds don’t mean you’ll always win. The maximum I can see Riku getting is 58/42 against his adjusted 2k5 self and even then that’s really pushing it.

This match isn’t getting much hype, but that’s because the match people are really hyping about is Yoshi/Dante. I don’t think Yoshi will have much of a problem winning this match, but like I said before Riku and KH2 could surprise us all and make this much closer than what most were expecting.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Yoshi over Riku

charmander6000’s Prediction: Yoshi wins, 56.23% - 43.77%

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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Dilated Chemist | Posted 9/29/2006 7:29:21 PM | message detail
Dayum, 72% for Squall...

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Remember, remember. The 7th of October - the day Ganondorf was beat.
By the Valentine, who N fans despise - another win, another great feat.
longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/29/2006 8:05:03 PM | message detail
My bad, wrong topic....

LETS GO YOSHI! *Clap clap clap clap clap*
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
Yesmar | Posted 9/29/2006 8:16:29 PM | message detail
Since one of these predictions actually almost came true today... Once again, I don't agree with all that I say in these posts. I'm just saying what I think is *possible*, not *probable.*

Extreme Scenarios: Riku Vs. Yoshi

Scenario 1:


Riku with 56.77%

Kingdom Hearts II was a huge game on this website. It was number 1 for a week after it came out in Japan, and it was even bigger when it was released stateside. Riku did very well in in his first contest outing last year, and Kingdom Hearts II should help him do even better. Yoshi, on the other hand fell flat last year. Sure, everyone thinks he was SFFed by Mega Man, but if you keep his value intact Vyse and Laharl drop partly in sync. If Yoshi's value last year is accurate, and Riku got a big boost this year, then he could shock everyone.

Scenario 2:

Yoshi with 63.98%

While Yoshi did horrible last year, Luigi, who Yoshi beat the year before, shocked everyone by pulling 46% or so against Tifa, the same percentage that he got against Yoshi. Assuming that the ratio between the two stays the same, then that could put Yoshi as potentially high as Tifa in the stats. Also, while Riku appeared in Kingdom Hearts II, from what I hear his role was not that large. Maybe he won't even boost at all. Combine a non-boosting Riku with a massively underrated Yoshi and you get the preceding result.

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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
trannyscience | Posted 9/29/2006 8:18:51 PM | message detail
Yosh didn't do horrible last year. he just got SFFed. I don't think Sora did horrible either, he just had a bad last match.
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xyzzy
Draco1214 | Posted 9/29/2006 8:19:37 PM | message detail
Scenario 1 FTW!
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Character Battle V Score - 18/18 points
Current Prediction - Riku vs. Yoshi
Master Moltar | Posted 9/29/2006 8:20:46 PM | message detail
Patriot Division: Round 1 - Match 19 – (3)Riku vs. (6)Yoshi

Moltar’s Analysis

Riku
Game/Series Known From: Kingdom Hearts
Extrapolated Rank in 2005: 45th (18.43%) - Adjusted Value: 36th (22.12%)
Seed in 2005: 4
Lost in 2005 to Frog in Round 1

Looks like KH2 brings Riku back to the Contest-setting.

Yoshi
Game/Series Known From: Super Mario
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: 23rd (27.05%)
Extrapolated Rank in 2004: 38th (18.26%) - Adjusted Value: 26th (25.22%)
Extraploated Rank in 2005: 32nd (22.69%) - Adjusted Value: 27th (26.59%)
Seed in 2003: 4
Seed in 2004: 5
Seed in 2005: 3
Lost in 2003 to Bowser in Round 2
Lost in 2004 to Link in Round 3
Lost in 2005 to Mega Man in Round 3

Yoshi’s seeding may look weak, but this dino is tough.

Seems as if the more time the Contest goes on, the more people bring up this match. I don’t know why though. Yeah, Riku has had KH2, which should make him a bit stronger than last year, but in Yoshi’s league? No way.

Yoshi is a strange case as it is. He always performs very well on opponents weaker than him, but then he always ends up facing a Nintendo character stronger than he is in the end, and thus suffers SFF every year. 2003 is the closest to a real value we have on him, and since then, there have been Nintendo boosts and such. Finally, this year we may actually get an accurate value on Yoshi! Right now, he’s projected to have a close match against Dante, which would put him near 30% on BL. I wouldn’t think of putting Riku that high. In fact, I’d go as far to say that Yoshi/Sora would be nearly even.

So yeah, unless you think Mega Man’s performance against Yoshi wasn’t SFF, this match isn’t in any question. Yoshi wins without much trouble.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Yoshi will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Riku: 40% - Yoshi: 60%



Ulti’s Analysis

We've never had a good reading on Yoshi. Ever. He was behind SFF in 2003, 2004 AND 2005 (Bowser, Link, Mega Man). The best people can do is extrapolate Yoshi through other characters and hope his value is accurate.

Which means little here, because Riku ain't winning even with KH2.

Prediction: Yoshi with 59.01%



HM’s Analysis

Unless I’m mistaken, this is the first Nintendo/Square match-up of the contest! What will ultimately become the norm this contest, the Nintendo character looks primed to take care of business. Yoshi came out with as a beneficiary of the Nintendo Boost last year, and may even get another smaller boost this year thanks to the increased DS ownership and NSMB. Riku, on the other hand, looks to be coming off a strong showing in Kingdom Hearts II. Some have speculated that he may have some upset potential, but I’m just not seeing it myself.

The only way Yoshi can have trouble winning this one is if he is overrated. Personally, I don’t see him being overrated by very much, if at all, from where he stood in 2005. I don’t necessarily buy the “Luigi is his floor” business, but where he sits now is far out of Riku’s reach, even with KH2. Despite how some expect a close match, I’m expecting a clear favoring toward Mario’s dinosaur companion. Yoshi wins this won without trouble, racking up one of many wins for Nintendo.

Aitch Emm’s Bracket: Yoshi

Aitch Emm’s Prediction: Yoshi – 56% ; Riku – 44%

Aitch Emm’s Vote: Yoshi



Yoblazer’s Analysis

I've touted that Riku over Yoshi is one of the best Squall/Luigi, Knuckles/Magus, Master Hand/Kuja-type upsets in this bracket. Other than that, surprisingly, I can't seem to find a single witty or informative thing to write about this one. Hmm... YOSHI IS GOING TO EAT RIKU AND LAY HIM OUT AS AN EGG. HAHA.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/29/2006 8:21:09 PM | message detail
If Riku manages to keep this match somewhat close, it will be a great indicator of Kingdom Hearts II making a significant impact. If he gets beaten easily, it will probably mean that any boosts from the sequal aren't as significant as they were from the original KH. Personally, I think KHII will boost several Square characters. However, I feel that Nintendo will be even more dominant this year than it was in 2005, so I'm giving Yoshi the easy win.

My prediction: Yoshi def. Riku (61-39)



Lopen’s Analysis

Yay, a seeding upset, yay, a seeding upset! It's about ti…

Not so fast, Crewba!

That's right… not so fast. Slow it down… sloowww. At first, I thought this was an easy win for Yoshi, just like all of you. Luigi looked so good last year, and Yoshi beat him 55-45, so therefore Yoshi should look pretty good last year too, right? Oh, forget Mega Man getting equipped with "blow Yoshi's face off… beam", that was SFF, right guys?

Oh yeah, maybe it was SFF. But I've got a different theory. But before I bring that theory up for you readers, I'll give a little Yoshi match history lesson. No, I'm not going to go over every match, I'll just summarize it for you. Basically, we can split Yoshi's matches into three categories:

1. Yoshi kicks the ass of some fodder, we're all very impressed.

2. Yoshi does well against one of his Mario buddies.

3. Yoshi gets stomped by the enemy that isn't one of the above (Mega Man and Link, it's understandable give him a break)

So what we've got here is Yoshi failing to really do anything against something that isn't Mario. One could say… he does well against Mario characters. Whoops!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2328

What the hell was that I just dropped? Some poll? Oh yeah, go look at it. You'll see Yoshi taking some sorta sick pleasure out of kicking the crap out of all his friends again. So I'm thinking… maybe little Yoshi might not have been SFFed against Mega Man at all! Maybe Mega Man v Yoshi was just Mega Man simply refusing to take Yoshi's "bully yer friends" crap.

Alright, now let's assume Mega Man exposed Yoshi as a weakling. Even then, Riku still doesn't have a free pass. Frog did pretty horribly against Samus last year after beating Riku. So Riku didn't look that great either. But… but… we mustn't forget Kingdom Hearts 2. How much could Riku gain from that? Well, I'm sure he'd easily trump Frog were they to rematch, for one. Would it be enough to overtake a Yoshi who isn't really as good as he wants us to think? Yeah, I think so.

So what two things did we just learn here? Yoshi is a horrible friend, a real punk. And also, Kingdom Hearts 2 Boost.

Lopen's Prediction: Riku with 52.76%



KH’s Analysis

lol x-stats history

RIKU

"You always were chatty when it came to darkness."

Summer 2005 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 36th Place [22.12%]

Riku returns! Fresh off of KH2, it's the first original KH character returning to the bracket...and he's got one whopper of a match ahead of him. A shame that he's in all probability wasted, but it'll be cool to see how he performs and attempt to gauge if even the most minimal of roles in KH2 help characters out. WOO RIKU

YOSHI

"Yoshi!"

Summer 2003 Contest

Extrapolated Strength --- 23rd Place [26.17%]

Summer 2004 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 26th Place [25.22% ]
Summer 2005 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 27th Place [26.59% ]
Master Moltar | Posted 9/29/2006 8:22:06 PM | message detail
The big Mario fan-favorite returns, and is primed to try his hand at another winnable fourpack before bowing out to elite competition. Yoshi is definitely an odd one to gauge, though if you assume that he increased in relative proportion to Bowser and Luigi he's the big favorite for taking down this fourpack. Unfortunately, Yoshi's never really been tested against non-SFF competition around his level of strength. This is a virtual lock for him...but he'll be looking to impress here. WOO YOSHI

Notable Releases Since Last Appearance

Riku: Kingdom Hearts 2 (PS2)
Yoshi: N/A

Upcoming Releases

Riku: N/A
Yoshi: N/A

I know this match is getting some hype...but, I'm sorry, I just can't understand it. KH2 isn't going to allow Sora to beat Mega Man, and I can't see this match being much different from that. I mean, there's a shot here for Riku with some crazy theories, but Yoshi just feels like he's not getting enough credit here. I personally don't care much for the guy, but his potential scares me. I actually struggled on Snake/Yoshi a little...yeah, second Nintendo boost and all that. <_<

Not too much else to see here...though look out for the votals! =D

Karma Hunter's Vote: Riku. Riku ain't much in KH or KH2, but his CoM personality is made of win.

Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Yoshi with 58.22%.

...I was tired of going high, anyway! Yeah. <_<

Upset Potential: 9.5%

Hey, I guess it's not impossible...with an overestimated Yoshi and a crazy KH2F, it could happen. Still, 48% on the Frog I saw in 2005 is not too assuring.

Ah, well. Go get 'em, Riku.

Upset Prediction: Riku with 52.46%



Guest’s Analysis - BigBob

When I was filling out my bracket, Riku/Yoshi was the match that put a snag in my bracket. Sure, matches like The Boss/Celes and Terra/Kerrigan made me pause for a moment, but when I saw this match I just kinda stopped. I ended up filling the rest of the bracket as much as I could before I finally had to decide on a winner here.

With good reason, too. 2k3 proved Kingdom Hearts was a force to be reckoned with, as all the Square cameos overperformed like crazy that year. Sora has done well despite his beating at the hands of Snake last year, and Riku nearly beat Frog BEFORE Kingdom Hearts II. On the other hand, nobody really knows where Yoshi stands. He got SFF'd to death by Link in 2k4, and may have been SFF'd by Mega Man last year. This will be the first year Yoshi isn't going to die in a SFF match, and the first chance we'll get to see how strong he is. He may end up strong enough to beat Dante (which I agonized over just as much as this match), or he could lose to Riku in round 1.

The sheer randomness of these two characters is what makes this match so hard to call. I picked Yoshi, but the upset potential is there.

Yoshi with 53.4%.



Crew Consensus: We all have Yoshi winning!...Oh wait...Lopen doesn't...well, it's Lopen! Average seems to be Yoshi in the mid-50's.
Dilated Chemist | Posted 9/29/2006 8:22:07 PM | message detail
Riku will win.

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Remember, remember. The 7th of October - the day Ganondorf was beat.
By the Valentine, who N fans despise - another win, another great feat.
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/29/2006 8:23:27 PM | message detail
Riku will win.
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caps