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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 372

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/30/2006 2:39:24 PM | message detail

man, if the KH2 boost is worth 5% or so like this is seeming to indicate, I'd hate to have seen Kairi/Claire before KH2. that would have been a blowout.

Meh, I think this says more about Yoshi than it does about Riku. As many have mentioned in this topic, Riku's role in KH2 was tiny, and I can't see him getting a 5% boost from that.

And if Hayabusa breaks 40% tomorrow, it's because he's stronger than he was last year. Zero may beat Dante, but it'd be no means an easy victory.

After DMC3SE, sure, but Zero would've crushed Dante last year.

I think Dante has a better chance of approaching the doubling than Hayabusa does of breaking 40%. It's a battle of two stereotypical badass-types; Dante easily has the upper hand. I wouldn't be too surprised if he outperforms Zero and the board goes nuts.

Zero's a stereotypical badass too. Why would Dante get more SFF than Zero did?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/30/2006 2:39:26 PM | message detail

Or Knuckles.

THAT'S RIGHT I WENT THERE
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.

Draco1214 | Posted 9/30/2006 2:40:43 PM | message detail

I also think Hayabusa was wasted in this bracket. He can cause some stir if given a better position in the bracket.
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Character Battle V Score - 18/18 points
Current Prediction - Riku vs. Yoshi

transience | Posted 9/30/2006 2:41:10 PM | message detail

well, Ryu is both a ninja and represents the xbox. I don't see the two fanbases overlapping all that much. that's like saying Snake will overperform on Master Chief or something similar.

as for Zero vs. Dante, Dante's from a 3d action series that's from the same generation. Zero's more of a 2d SNES kinda guy. I think that makes a difference.

yeah, this is overanalyzing. oh well.
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xyzzy

Who Cares? | Posted 9/30/2006 2:44:32 PM | message detail

I also think Hayabusa was wasted in this bracket. He can cause some stir if given a better position in the bracket.

Unfortunately, this is a phrase that's been used far too often thus far! :(
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Lara Croft (October 21th) One down, two to go!
*Just 10 days until Tales of the Abyss*

AmazingKirby | Posted 9/30/2006 2:44:32 PM | message detail

17:25:03 199 214 48.18% 51.82%
17:40:01 214 199 51.82% 48.18%

Cool!
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caps

FastFalcon05 | Posted 9/30/2006 2:44:50 PM | message detail

Meh, I think this says more about Yoshi than it does about Riku. As many have mentioned in this topic, Riku's role in KH2 was tiny, and I can't see him getting a 5% boost from that.

It says more about Riku, definitely, almost. Regardless of how large is role in the game was, it still was there, and it still was Kingdom Hearts II regardless.

SPOILERS
You could take villain Ansem from the first game, put him in this contest now, and even though that Ansem wasn't involved, he'd still be much stronger.
END
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.

LeonhartForever | Posted 9/30/2006 2:45:03 PM | message detail

After DMC3SE, sure, but Zero would've crushed Dante last year.

Crushed? What, like 55-45 at best?

that's like saying Snake will overperform on Master Chief or something similar.

And he would.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D

AmazingKirby | Posted 9/30/2006 2:45:49 PM | message detail

2 updates in a row! 2 updates in a row!
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caps

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2006 2:46:43 PM | message detail

lol kh2 boost

lol vincent > ganny looking possible

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.

Heroic Mario | Posted 9/30/2006 2:46:44 PM | message detail

man, if the KH2 boost is worth 5% or so like this is seeming to indicate, I'd hate to have seen Kairi/Claire before KH2. that would have been a blowout.

...What? This doesn't indicate a 5% boost. Yoshi was projected to get 58.40% on Riku by the adjustment made in CN's stats. That indicates a 2.55% boost for Riku, if that adjustment is even accurate.

It'd be silly to think that Riku got a 5% boost from KH2. That's something one might expect from Sora, but certainly not Riku or Kairi.

---
"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg

Janus5000 | Posted 9/30/2006 2:46:58 PM | message detail

OH GOD SOUND THE COMEBACK ALARM OUR BRACKETS ARE SO SCREWED
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4

AmazingKirby | Posted 9/30/2006 2:48:31 PM | message detail

OUR BRACKETS ARE SCREWED BUT OUR HEARTS WILL LIVE ON!
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caps

Draco1214 | Posted 9/30/2006 2:48:41 PM | message detail

I mean, put Hayabusa up against Chun-Li (forget this female/male split crap) and I would've struggled.
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Character Battle V Score - 18/18 points
Current Prediction - Riku vs. Yoshi

transience | Posted 9/30/2006 2:48:47 PM | message detail

Luigi (2005c) VS Yoshi (2005c)

Luigi has a strength of 31.32.
Yoshi has a strength of 29.01.

Luigi wins with 53.69% of the vote!
A win of 6,815 with 92,403 total votes cast.
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xyzzy

Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/30/2006 2:49:04 PM | message detail

Crushed? What, like 55-45 at best?

Yep. That's a crushing when the characters are that strong. But Dante this year is gonna be on a whole new level from Dante last year. It's just a shame we're seeing Yoshi flop so hard today, or Dante vs. Yoshi could be a great match.

SPOILERS
You could take villain Ansem from the first game, put him in this contest now, and even though that Ansem wasn't involved, he'd still be much stronger.
END

"Much" is an exaggeration, IMO. And one might expect Ansem to get a bigger boost from KH2 than Riku would, given the relative size of Riku's roles in KH and CoM vs. his role in KH2.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Heroic Mario | Posted 9/30/2006 2:50:29 PM | message detail

If you're trying to tell me that Yoshi is at least at Luigi's level, then don't. There's nothing to indicate that is the case at all. Luigi gaining more and being indirectly stronger is hardly out of the question. Anyone who has been using Luigi as Yoshi's floor is thinking they are attached at the hip in increases, strength, and whatever else is just silly.

---
"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg

Draco1214 | Posted 9/30/2006 2:50:40 PM | message detail

I've said it before. I don't think Yoshi and Luigi are joined at the hip. Luigi could rank above Yoshi this year and I wouldn't be surprised at all.
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Character Battle V Score - 18/18 points
Current Prediction - Riku vs. Yoshi

Heroic Mario | Posted 9/30/2006 2:51:19 PM | message detail

I've said it before. I don't think Yoshi and Luigi are joined at the hip. Luigi could rank above Yoshi this year and I wouldn't be surprised at all.

Bingo. I'm glad someone else knows how to approach this.

---
"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2006 2:53:17 PM | message detail

From Draco1214 Posted 9/30/2006 5:48:41 PM
I mean, put Hayabusa up against Chun-Li (forget this female/male split crap) and I would've struggled.

After what Chunners did to Kasumi...

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.

Draco1214 | Posted 9/30/2006 2:54:36 PM | message detail

Kasumi is fodder. After 4 years and two sitewide voting pool shifts, it'd be foolish to think she maintained whatever strength she had back then.
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Character Battle V Score - 18/18 points
Current Prediction - Riku vs. Yoshi

transience | Posted 9/30/2006 2:56:28 PM | message detail

Heroic Mario | Posted 9/30/2006 2:56:36 PM | message detail

After what Chunners did to Kasumi...

I would hope you wouldn't expect Kasumi to maintain her strength. We haven't seen Kasumi four years; it's the equivalent of thinking Claire has remained the same strength. She has obviously gone down in strength combined whatever potential fanbase overlap there might have been there with two fighting game chicks. Chun-Li didn't suddenly shoot up miles in strength.

---
"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg

LeonhartForever | Posted 9/30/2006 2:56:48 PM | message detail

Eh, I think it's a little more difficult for people to accept a change in an SFF match because, well...it's SFF. But either way, for as much as people say "We don't ever have a solid reading on Yoshi!", what's wrong with Bowser? I've never believed there was any SFF there (hey, it predicted Yoshi/Luigi almost perfectly), nor was there any against Luigi.

Don't ask me why Luigi would've been a bigger benefactor of the boost than Yoshi would have 'cause I don't know. It's in the same general area as people saying "There's no way Samus didn't increase when everyone else in Nintendo did!" We really can't say for sure. Honestly, that matchup with Laharl is looking to be worth more than we thought.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D

transience | Posted 9/30/2006 2:57:31 PM | message detail

eh, constant is the wrong word there since Yoshi boosted a little bit. but it's not nearly as much as everyone else did.
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xyzzy

Draco1214 | Posted 9/30/2006 3:00:37 PM | message detail

Now that Terra and Kerrigan proved fodder fluctation is a load of bunk, I also think that match with Laharl is telling me Yoshi barely boosted.
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Character Battle V Score - 18/18 points
Current Prediction - Riku vs. Yoshi

transience | Posted 9/30/2006 3:03:22 PM | message detail

Terra and Kerrigan are well-known though - Laharl, not even close. I would trust a value of them a lot faster than I would Laharl. I'd take someone known like Kasumi or Kerrigan over Laharl in a heartbeat.

Laharl's the kind of guy that I think would look better against stronger opponents than weaker ones because of his cult backing. kinda like how Yuri would get 10% on Link and 15% on Zero.
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xyzzy

AmazingKirby | Posted 9/30/2006 3:03:36 PM | message detail

Whoa, Laharl was in two contests!? How did he manage that?
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caps

LeonhartForever | Posted 9/30/2006 3:04:41 PM | message detail

It's the cult backing that would make me trust Laharl more than a lot of other fodder, as long as he's not facing other fodder.

Still, that match with Vyse doesn't seem to have messed him up too badly.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D

Draco1214 | Posted 9/30/2006 3:05:30 PM | message detail

Yeah, now that you mention it, Laharl isn't really that good of a standard to judge Yoshi's strength. He can't really draw votes outside of the few people who've played his game.
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Character Battle V Score - 18/18 points
Current Prediction - Riku vs. Yoshi

Tediz247 | Posted 9/30/2006 3:06:27 PM | message detail

We don't even have an accurate reading on Laharl. He was behind Cloud/Vyse, and with what Tifa did to Vyse, I wouldn't try to base Vyse off of that match.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end.
ZSB [aX]

Draco1214 | Posted 9/30/2006 3:07:58 PM | message detail

The weird thing about Vyse 2004 is that he did almost exactly what he was projected to get on Cloud the year before.
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Character Battle V Score - 18/18 points
Current Prediction - Riku vs. Yoshi

Big Bob | Posted 9/30/2006 3:09:05 PM | message detail

Speaking of Laharl, does anyone think he would defeat Vyse in a rematch? SoA was already getting old at that point, while Disgaea is still fresh and Disgaea 2 will have made a lot of new fans.

I know Laharl isn't in Disgaea 2, but I think it'll encourage people to check out the original.

Or maybe I'm just crazy because I've been playing through it and that now I realize how much more badass Laharl is than Vyse. >_>
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My bracket is so screwed.

transience | Posted 9/30/2006 3:09:36 PM | message detail

I think Cloud / Vyse just happens to line up with the numbers because Cloud is so much stronger than Tifa. Link/Samus is similar in this regard - it's just hard to noticably SFF someone when you're that much stronger. Link probably SFFed Samus 1-2%, but not much more than that. when you get a weaker character like Mario, it's a lot more noticable.
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xyzzy

Tediz247 | Posted 9/30/2006 3:10:21 PM | message detail

I know Laharl isn't in Disgaea 2,

He actually is, but his role basically amounts to him being thrown in for fanservice.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end.
ZSB [aX]

Glarbluk | Posted 9/30/2006 3:10:54 PM | message detail

Go Yoshi!
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Happy Peanut soar over chocolate covered mountain tops and waterfalls of caramel... Prancing nougat in the meadow sings a song of satisfaction to the world...

Heroic Mario | Posted 9/30/2006 3:13:13 PM | message detail

Mario, Luigi and Bowser all received pretty large boosts last year. it seems kind of weird to me that Yoshi didn't receive one as well.

now, Yoshi may be overrated in general because we've never had a good read on him and his "good" matches involve Mario characters, but I don't think those three boosted and just stayed constant.

You answered your own problem right there. We have never had a good read on Yoshi before. His most impressive matches tend to come from beating fellow Mario characters or losing to fellow Mario characters.

But Yoshi still gets a boost last year from CN's stats. He increases by 2%, which is better than absolutely nothing or remaining constant. It's not like they should all receive the same boost across the board. I realize it may be hard to accept in a match with possible SFF, but thinking Luigi is Yoshi's floor is a bit...crazy. The two just aren't joined at the hip like that -- no characters are.

I predicted this match for Yoshi with 56% with his current value in mind, not the crazy belief that he's at least as strong as Luigi. It seems much more reasonable to me than to expect a 5% boost for Riku or that Yoshi was severly overrated or whatever else. He just happened to boost less than the others.

---
"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg

FastFalcon05 | Posted 9/30/2006 3:24:29 PM | message detail

LeonhartForever | Posted 9/30/2006 3:25:49 PM | message detail

Thinking it's completely plausible for Luigi to be stronger than Yoshi is a bit crazy, too. Yoshi beat Luigi, and very decisively, at that; why all of a sudden is Luigi going to be a stronger competitor if Yoshi is clearly preferred?

It's like asking why any match changes results.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D

Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/30/2006 3:28:03 PM | message detail

How strong is Yoshi through Bowser? If you take into account that Bowser's possibly overrated, he's likely weaker than Yoshi through Luigi...
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

FastFalcon05 | Posted 9/30/2006 3:28:37 PM | message detail

There aren't very many results that change all that drastically, though. Luigi/Yoshi was close, but it wasn't 50/50.

Yoshi 54.48% 41151
Luigi 45.52% 34382
TOTAL VOTES 75533

That's a pretty comfortable win, sure, it isn't glamorous, but, you know, it's there.

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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.

Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2006 3:31:21 PM | message detail

Hmm, Yoshi could have Kirby syndrome, as in overperforms against other Nintendo characters, even though they are stronger than him.

Kinda explains his match against Bowser, but I wouldn't say Luigi was stronger than him back in 2004. Perhaps they were very close though. If you set Luigi = to Yoshi's adjusted value, it makes his boost alot less crazy.

This only makes the thought of a Kirby/Yoshi match even crazier.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Riku vs. Yoshi - Bracket: Yoshi - Vote: Yoshi (17/18)

transience | Posted 9/30/2006 3:33:06 PM | message detail

that was my thought process in picking Dante, Moltar. if anything, Kirby has Yoshi syndrome.

still, I don't think it'll be an easy win and it's far from proven. if Yoshi's win over Luigi is legitimate, Dante's got an uphill battle to win that match, especially if his 2005 number is too high.
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xyzzy

Heroic Mario | Posted 9/30/2006 3:34:31 PM | message detail

Thinking it's completely plausible for Luigi to be stronger than Yoshi is a bit crazy, too. Yoshi beat Luigi, and very decisively, at that; why all of a sudden is Luigi going to be a stronger competitor if Yoshi is clearly preferred? It's a SFF match, but it's not as if entirely different voters vote in SFF matches than regular ones.

If the match between Luigi and Yoshi was riddled with SFF, then it wouldn't be surprising if the two were basically 50/50 without any type of SFF, or indirectly near each other. Then in 2005, Luigi gets a far bigger boost than Yoshi does and ends up ahead of him. There's really nothing all that crazy about it. What if Yoshi rSFFed Luigi in that match? That result changing by our stats when they don't encounter each other is not crazy in the slightest. It is nothing short of silly to think that Yoshi's absolute floor is wherever Luigi is -- that makes no sense.

I don't see why this match has to be a larger mix of Yoshi failing than Riku getting a very sizeable boost from what has been the game of the year up until now.

Yoshi is not failing at anything other than the people who were expecting him to be even stronger than what the stats indicated. The adjustment made to Yoshi last year gave him a nice 2% boost from the year before and put him at 58% on pre-KH2 Riku. Now we see Riku getting a nice boost from KH2, Yoshi not really going up or down, and here is the result today. Nothing crazy, nothing out of whack, nothing indicative of the later matches.

---
"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg

FastFalcon05 | Posted 9/30/2006 3:44:31 PM | message detail

It is nothing short of silly to think that Yoshi's absolute floor is wherever Luigi is -- that makes no sense.

It makes sense in that Yoshi beat him, though. It isn't extreme to think Yoshi wouldn't be close to Luigi, especially after beating him. And in the same year that we want to think Luigi got a bigger boost than Yoshi, Yoshi had the same credits, if not more, than Luigi for that boost. They both were in the revamped Super Mario 64, and Yoshi had, I believe, two other ds games. Or am I mashing two years into one? I don't even know anymore.

But anyway, I'm just in a bad mood and this isn't the best result Yoshi could have had today. I still have confidence.
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.

transience | Posted 9/30/2006 3:48:19 PM | message detail

If the match between Luigi and Yoshi was riddled with SFF, then it wouldn't be surprising if the two were basically 50/50 without any type of SFF

in that case..

Riku (2005c) VS Luigi (2005c)

Riku has a strength of 24.13.
Luigi has a strength of 31.32.

Luigi wins with 61.48% of the vote!
A win of 21,735 with 94,677 total votes cast.

you're still looking at a pretty sizable boost. this looks to maybe finish under 55%.
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xyzzy

LeonhartForever | Posted 9/30/2006 3:48:47 PM | message detail

It makes sense in that Yoshi beat him, though.

...In 2004.

But just because Yoshi had as much reason to boost as Luigi doesn't mean he would.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D

Luis_Sera89 | Posted 9/30/2006 3:50:02 PM | message detail

Luigi > Zero
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Damn you Z1mZum! Were it not for my owning at the hands of you I would've claimed the guru crown at the 1st attempt!

MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/30/2006 3:50:03 PM | message detail

Who would you guys take in a rematch: Yoshi or Luigi?
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Riku vs. Yoshi / Bracket: Yoshi / Vote: Yoshi (17/18)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Dante / Vote: Ryu

MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/30/2006 3:50:21 PM | message detail

Yoshi > Snake
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Riku vs. Yoshi / Bracket: Yoshi / Vote: Yoshi (17/18)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Dante / Vote: Ryu

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