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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 371

LeonhartForever | Posted 9/28/2006 6:30:53 PM | message detail
The time has come...As I leave for the night, I expect to return to Squall domination.

Squall's run to the championship has begun!
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Tidus
Draco1214 | Posted 9/28/2006 6:31:21 PM | message detail
Probably because Zero is a proven contest force.
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Character Battle V Score - 16/16 points
Current Prediction - Solid Snake vs. Soma Cruz
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/28/2006 6:32:02 PM | message detail
So, what if Tidus rSFFs? Everyone likes FFX more than FFVIII!
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KingBartz | Posted 9/28/2006 6:32:37 PM | message detail
I took Luigi to win that fourpack. My biggest upset of the conteat, IMO. This is from someone who has 14 upset picks.

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The end of the world is nigh! Earth Life Remaining: 5 days
SC2K6: 15/16 Today's pick: Solid Snake
longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/28/2006 6:32:43 PM | message detail
They really don't. Maybe on this board, but not in the world.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/28/2006 6:33:26 PM | message detail
I don't think so. The whole world likes FFX better.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 6:35:05 PM | message detail
The massive, healthier sales of FFX combined with the fact that its sales weren't nearly as front-loaded as FFVIII (which a lot of people bought simply due to FFVII and ended up hating it), along with FFX-2 about to pass FFIX in sales says to me that FFX > FFVIII in worldwide popularity.
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Commit it to memory.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/28/2006 6:39:12 PM | message detail
So if Ryu Hayabusa underperforms greatly, the Devil Division isn't overrated. If Ryu overperforms, something happened in Mario/Ryu or the Devil Division was overrated, or a combination of both. If things happen around expected.. .. they could be proportionally underrated/overrated? >_>
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Solid Snake vs. Soma Cruz / Bracket: Snake / Vote: Snake (14/15)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Squall / Vote: Tidus
Draco1214 | Posted 9/28/2006 6:41:00 PM | message detail
I agree that Dante/Hayabusa won't tell us much up front. I think the next match will, assuming no SFF of any kind.
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Character Battle V Score - 16/16 points
Current Prediction - Solid Snake vs. Soma Cruz
longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/28/2006 6:42:28 PM | message detail
But Tidus is like....a jobber in Kingdom Hearts. Hell so is Wakka for that matter. Squall, now he whoops some tricks. Thats gotta mean somethin.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
trannyscience | Posted 9/28/2006 6:43:29 PM | message detail
I really don't see how you can call Kirby/Bowser rSFF based on low vote totals. why? we've seen SFF matches with low votes, but that doesn't mean anything. we already know Kirby and Bowser draw from the same audience. plus Squall overperforming would make Kirby look better, not worse.

unless I'm just completely missing something, and if so feel free to set me straight.
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 6:43:38 PM | message detail
Yes, it means that Squall is more popular than Tidus.

Now, if you think this has an implication on their respective games...well, just remember that Auron stole the show in KH2.
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Commit it to memory.
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/28/2006 6:44:39 PM | message detail
Pfft, I can't even tell that the guy in the picture is Leon. All the KH votes will go to Tidus by default! >_>
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 6:45:37 PM | message detail
plus Squall overperforming would make Kirby look better, not worse.

Tidus goes through Kirby 2k5, him underperforming in that match could potentially be due to Kirby being overrated.

Doesn't really matter to me though...every single drop of Kirby 2k5 can be legitimate, I'm still regretting taking him out of his fourpack.
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Commit it to memory.
Draco1214 | Posted 9/28/2006 6:46:24 PM | message detail
unless I'm just completely missing something, and if so feel free to set me straight.

Kirby and Squall were near equals according to 2005 stats. If Squall does significantly better than Kirby did, I'd say this makes Kirby look bad.

Or maybe it was a huge KH2 boost. Who knows?
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Character Battle V Score - 16/16 points
Current Prediction - Solid Snake vs. Soma Cruz
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 6:47:29 PM | message detail
Also, a question -- Sora v. Tidus, who ya got? I ask because Tidus beats Sora's 2k4 value pretty decisively, and Sora may never get over that stigma that Aeris left him...
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Commit it to memory.
Draco1214 | Posted 9/28/2006 6:48:11 PM | message detail
After KH2, Sora without question.
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Character Battle V Score - 16/16 points
Current Prediction - Solid Snake vs. Soma Cruz
trannyscience | Posted 9/28/2006 6:48:41 PM | message detail
oh, that. Squall's already beaten Kirby though, 55-45. it'd be a closer match today, but Squall still wins that. I don't think this match says anything about Kirby and I sure would be hesitant to draw conclusions based on two Square mains.
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xyzzy
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/28/2006 6:48:44 PM | message detail
How much should he get on Tidus to make Kirby look 'bad' ?
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Solid Snake vs. Soma Cruz / Bracket: Snake / Vote: Snake (14/15)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Squall / Vote: Tidus
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/28/2006 6:49:24 PM | message detail
Sora. 34% on Samus before KH2 vs. 35% on Mega Man and lowering? Sora Sora Sora!
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 6:50:27 PM | message detail
I think if Squall pushes 70% it'll be bad for either Kirby (overrated) or Snake (whoa KH2 boost). Square SFF generally isn't that bad.
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Commit it to memory.
XxSoulxX | Posted 9/28/2006 6:52:34 PM | message detail
we already know Kirby and Bowser draw from the same audience.

Wow... I just realized that's why SFF matches get so little votes. God damn I'm bad at these things.
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Why the hell did I bet against a character as deep, awesome and badass as Lara Croft, instead favouring a character from something as lame as HL2? Forgive me, XIII.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 6:53:09 PM | message detail
Though obviously, a 71% result would have to be riddled with SFF. There's just a point where you just have to attribute some of it to genuine character strength.
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Commit it to memory.
Draco1214 | Posted 9/28/2006 6:53:14 PM | message detail
I'm stil under the belief that Sora breaks 30% on BL with ease post-KH2. I don't believe Sora's 2005 value for a second and I'd think KH2 would benefit him more than anyone else due to him being the main and all.
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Character Battle V Score - 16/16 points
Current Prediction - Solid Snake vs. Soma Cruz
trannyscience | Posted 9/28/2006 6:53:54 PM | message detail
yeah, Nintendo vs. Square matches always get the most amount of votes. keep an eye on Riku/Yoshi.
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xyzzy
TheCruelAngel | Posted 9/28/2006 6:55:06 PM | message detail
Squall is going to dominate, bay-bee!
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
Draco1214 | Posted 9/28/2006 6:55:11 PM | message detail
Also, Riku/Yoshi will be a weekend match.

Hmmm...since there will be higher votals in that match than usual, who do you think this will benefit. I think most of us here believe Riku will perform respectably, and if the votals favor him, he could put quite the scare into Yoshi.
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Character Battle V Score - 16/16 points
Current Prediction - Solid Snake vs. Soma Cruz
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 6:56:20 PM | message detail
Riku "scaring" Yoshi at all depends on Yoshi being overestimated, plain and simple. I don't see that happening.
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Commit it to memory.
trannyscience | Posted 9/28/2006 6:57:04 PM | message detail
Yoshi should beat Riku like Kirby beat Tidus.
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xyzzy
Draco1214 | Posted 9/28/2006 6:57:56 PM | message detail
I'm expecting 52-53% for Yoshi. I really would not be surprised at all if Riku managed another Riku/Frog scare.
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Character Battle V Score - 17/17 points
Current Prediction - Squall Leonhart vs. Tidus
trannyscience | Posted 9/28/2006 6:58:41 PM | message detail
the difference is that Yoshi's not going to fall apart in the day like Frog did.
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 6:58:58 PM | message detail
If that's what you think of Yoshi, I feel tons better about having him whipping Dante!
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Commit it to memory.
trannyscience | Posted 9/28/2006 6:59:56 PM | message detail
no, it's not Yoshi - I just don't think a lot of Riku!
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 7:01:20 PM | message detail
I wasn't talking to you!
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Commit it to memory.
Draco1214 | Posted 9/28/2006 7:02:31 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Draco1214 | Posted 9/28/2006 7:03:03 PM | message detail
Yoshi's projected to get 58% on Riku now. I think Riku can make up 4-5% post-KH2.

(no I don't believe Yoshi's underrated)
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Character Battle V Score - 17/17 points
Current Prediction - Squall Leonhart vs. Tidus
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/28/2006 7:04:49 PM | message detail
As much as I want Riku to win, even Kairi > Rikku and Sora > Mega Man seem more likely at this point.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/28/2006 7:05:02 PM | message detail
Meh, I can't see Riku boosting THAT much.. o_O
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Solid Snake vs. Soma Cruz / Bracket: Snake / Vote: Snake (14/15)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Squall / Vote: Tidus
trannyscience | Posted 9/28/2006 7:05:14 PM | message detail
that's based on the idea of Samus not dropping / being overrated. I'm rather curious to see Samus's division, moreso than the Devil or any of those other fluky divisions.
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 7:08:18 PM | message detail
Riku's role in KH2 was nothing, at least for what I put stock into when it comes to character strength. If KH2 does that much for him Sora's going to be giving Mega Man a fight, Squall's whipping Snake, Auron's beating Crono, and Kairi would not have only lost to a speck of dust pre-KH2, Speck of Dust would have broken 90% on her ass.

(not going any further cuz of spoilers, LOL)
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Commit it to memory.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/28/2006 7:08:53 PM | message detail
oh yeah, I forgot RIku was based off of some made up average of Samus..

but even then, I still see him around 24-25% on BL.
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Solid Snake vs. Soma Cruz / Bracket: Snake / Vote: Snake (14/15)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Squall / Vote: Tidus
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/28/2006 7:09:26 PM | message detail
That is, pre-KH2.
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Solid Snake vs. Soma Cruz / Bracket: Snake / Vote: Snake (14/15)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Squall / Vote: Tidus
trannyscience | Posted 9/28/2006 7:10:37 PM | message detail
the Speck of Dust lives on!

it's weird, I don't think I saw any mention of Riku/Frog last year. granted some of that was because Frog was such an anomaly in 2k4, but unlike Magus everyone knew Frog was overrated. I don't think I remember anyone on the board taking Riku. maybe my memory is faulty.

now, all of a sudden, he's gonna be breaking 30%? now I believe Yoshi has the possibility to completely flop as much as anyone, but I don't think it's gonna be against Riku.
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xyzzy
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/28/2006 7:14:08 PM | message detail
I'll never understand why people say Riku's role was nothing.
Riku's role was better than Auron's, Squall's, Cloud's, and everyone else's combined. Riku's already so close to being the main character. He has his own story in CoM, and a lot of the series's story is about him. He's like a lesser Sora. I see Riku being far closer to Sora than to Kairi.
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Draco1214 | Posted 9/28/2006 7:14:10 PM | message detail
I don't think he's going to break 30% at all. If Yoshi isn't underrated and he only scores 53% on Riku, that puts him at around 27% on BL. A 3% boost for him is not farfetched, IMO.
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Character Battle V Score - 17/17 points
Current Prediction - Squall Leonhart vs. Tidus
wavedash101 | Posted 9/28/2006 7:15:08 PM | message detail
Session FTW. Riku's got this in the bag.
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 7:17:54 PM | message detail
I'll never understand why people say Riku's role was nothing.

Because for what counts in terms of contest strength, it *was*. KH1 and especially CoM, yes, Riku is very prominent and that alone puts him closer to Sora than Kairi, with ease. But KH2...really, no.
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Commit it to memory.
longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/28/2006 7:42:16 PM | message detail
Yeah, he doesn't really do jack anything till the last two hours or so of gameplay, but at least then you can use him as a party member and stuff.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 7:43:18 PM | message detail
...after all the effort I just went through trying to avoid spoilers...
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Commit it to memory.
trannyscience | Posted 9/28/2006 7:44:01 PM | message detail
oh well!
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xyzzy