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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 371

SquallidSnake | Posted 9/28/2006 2:30:46 PM | message detail
I fail to see the point you're trying to make here. Just because MGS3 hasn't surpassed MGS2 doesn't mean it's weaker when DMC3 surpassed DMC2.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 2:31:01 PM | message detail
You know, Final Fantasy IX sold a heckuva lot more than Final Fantasy VI...I would hate to see what VI would do to it in a direct match.

MGS2 selling more than MGS3 means very little. Despite its sales being comparable to MGS's, it's not even in the same league as the original.
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Kaxon | Posted 9/28/2006 2:41:40 PM | message detail
Vincent/Ganondorf is easily an Elite Eight worthy match

It's really not. Vincent and Ganondorf don't deserve two of the top four male spots, unless you think they'd have beaten Snake and Sonic to earn them. Vincent/Ganon should be a round 2 match.
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CATS's Road to the Character Battle V Championship
Round 1: Sonic
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 2:45:48 PM | message detail
I could see Vincent/Ganon being Elite Eight worthy in a standard 64 field (this is a 32 field) with Clinkeroth and Mario taken out...
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/28/2006 2:53:57 PM | message detail
I fail to see the point you're trying to make here. Just because MGS3 hasn't surpassed MGS2 doesn't mean it's weaker when DMC3 surpassed DMC2.

MGS3 would've had much better legs than it did if it's as well-liked as you claim.

You know, Final Fantasy IX sold a heckuva lot more than Final Fantasy VI...I would hate to see what VI would do to it in a direct match.

Heh, if FFVI's SNES strength was its only source of power I'd certainly take FFIX over FFVI. I shudder to think what Dante would've gotten on Terra without Anthologies and emulation.

Er, checking sales, maybe not? Apparently, FFVI had 870K in SNES sales, which is actually relatively impressive. Still, FFVI vs. FFIX would be a tough match without those additional factors.

Also, FFIX's sales are certainly a strong argument for why it's so weak. Kuja wouldn't have lost to Master Hand if FFIX had sold as well as FFVIII/FFX/FFX-2 (yes, FFX-2 sold better than FFIX...*cries*).
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 2:58:20 PM | message detail
MGS3 would've had much better legs than it did if it's as well-liked as you claim.

Being more well-liked than Metal Gear Solid 2 isn't *that* hard...

The only thing that keeps me from writing the damn thing off completely is that performance on SSBM, and I'm tempted to call that a fluke. The entire MGS series isn't expected to break 40% on that "series" now (and please no one try to argue that SSB 64 adds more to the series than MGS and MGS3 does for its).
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trannyscience | Posted 9/28/2006 2:59:44 PM | message detail
Nintendo boost, etc? in 2004 you could have made a case for MGS > SSBM; today, maybe not so much.
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 3:02:02 PM | message detail
Even with the Nintendo boost, that's a little extreme for my tastes. Like I said, MGS2 isn't even in MGS's league.

There's also Vice City to consider...anything that does that well against SSBM yet bombed against freaking Warcraft makes my mind boggle.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/28/2006 3:03:09 PM | message detail
Geez. Is this one of the most consistent matches ever?

I don't think it's really moved since the first hour
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/28/2006 3:03:49 PM | message detail
Not counting the close matches I mean >_>
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Haste_2 | Posted 9/28/2006 3:06:44 PM | message detail
Hrm, MGS > FFX, too? I don't believe it. It was the weakest year for MGS strength, for one. MGS2 managed to be so close to MGS because it was the newest one and was still rather recent. I think recency is a big thing on GameFAQs...more than given credit for. We've seen how many characters have fallen like a rock in just a few years. MGS2 is starting to get old now, and with MGS3 around, I'm sure MGS is easily in front of MGS2 these days, though.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 3:07:45 PM | message detail
Also, does anyone else think Starcraft might bomb if we have another Games Contest (and by bomb, I mean bomb HARD)? I wouldn't be too surprised if it came in as a 2 or 3 seed and ended up losing to something like Metroid Prime 2...
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Haste_2 | Posted 9/28/2006 3:10:45 PM | message detail
Maybe it'd be paired against Pokemon RBY and lose. =P

You know, I wish Halo was against Pokemon in the series contest...it could've been the most hilarious upset in GameFAQs history.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 3:11:11 PM | message detail
I could definitely see MGS make a match with FFX (well, at least indirectly), at least to the point where it would never have to worry about MGS2 being near it. And while MGS2 was more recent, hate for it was also much higher back then.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/28/2006 3:11:31 PM | message detail
Hmm.. FFX over MGS would be pretty hard for me to do.
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Lara Croft vs. Alyx Vance / Bracket: Lara Croft / Vote: Abstain (14/15)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Solid Snake / Vote: Solid Snake
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 3:18:14 PM | message detail
These are some slightly disappointing votals for today, at least in the sense that I wanted the male bracket to DESTROY THE FEMALE HALF'S PUNY VOTES HA HA

I hope it's just some carryover from yesterday's debacle or that Konami SFF actually exists (though that would really chap my hide). Let's hope we get a big voting day on Riku/Yoshi...
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H__RR____H | Posted 9/28/2006 3:24:56 PM | message detail
...Right. The majority of nominees were from this board, and I can think of maybe 5 regular users who would cast-iron nominate Lara. She must have some sort of support.

So, wait, did you just reversed your arguement from "the board got her a two-seed so she isn't hated anymore" to "since only afew people from the board nominated her it shows that lots of off-board people did and will vote for her", or did I miss something?


TRL and antivotes dying down would give her the 4.

I think somebody asked not too long ago if TRL ever even broke the top fifty here, and I never heard a response. Now, I'm sure it did, but just the fact that it had to be brought into question, not to mention Lara dropping in worth the past few years, doesn't instill me with lots of hope. I know it sold well, I know it's got good reviews...but I wanna see if any of those sales and reviews mean **** here.


Heh

It was more of a smart-ass point than anything, but it shouldn't be COMPLETELY ignored either.


And Lara is well above that now.

Not convinced. People cared alot more about Lara in 2k3 than just before TRL came out, and Lara had her movie come out that weekend in 2k3 too...hard to ask for much more from her than that. TRL will definitely help, but again, how much? Her being close to her 2k2 value is questionable enough, and she's have to noticably outdo her 2k3 value and hope Kasumi's wrong about how strong Chun-Li is to stand a chance.


TR:L was MASSIVE for her, and plenty give a damn about her now. Specifically, 75,464 people.

Oh goddamn, don't give me that *insert total votes* bologna. I voted AND nominated Lara, and I couldn't care less about her -- she's just lucky she's facing other crap. She'll still do fair enough against Chun-Li, don't mistake me for that, but but she'll be doing amazing to break 45%.


To clarify, I still think Lara underperformed slightly yesterday. Give her a Legend pic against Chunners and 45% is in the bag.

Why would you think Lara under-performed? That was easily Lara's biggest win to date and we haven't seen her in two years (where she looked PATHETIC that year) while we've never seen Alyx...and Lara still had the easy picture advantage over her. What more do you want? Those two different Lara's hardly look that different -- not different enough for that.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 3:26:32 PM | message detail
HaRR is dead-set on proving that Chun-Li can upset Lara!!!
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WilhuffTarkin | Posted 9/28/2006 3:26:33 PM | message detail
How do you think the prediction percentages will be for Squall v. Tidus? I figure maybe 62-ish for Squall.
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Evacuate? In our moment of triumph? I think you overestimate their chances.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 3:28:04 PM | message detail
I honestly don't expect Squall to get over 58% for that prediction percentage, and it could very well be below 54% or so. To the vast majority of bracketmakers, this will be FFX versus FF8, and I don't expect anyone to have a significant advantage.
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H__RR____H | Posted 9/28/2006 3:28:24 PM | message detail
KH cracks me up.


I gotta go though, it's Preview-Night for the play I'm in ("Bent"). Wish me luck guys.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 3:29:57 PM | message detail
Break a leg! Get bent!
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/28/2006 3:32:15 PM | message detail
I know it sold well,

Actually, it didn't. It barely did better than AoD, and it did worse than any other TR game.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
SquallidSnake | Posted 9/28/2006 3:35:55 PM | message detail
Squall gets 70% of the brackets against Tidus!
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
Haste_2 | Posted 9/28/2006 3:37:55 PM | message detail
Squall'll get around 60%, I say. I've seen a lot of brackets around picking Tidus, but Kirby was the favorite against Tidus, but not against Squall...then again, Kirby was a 1-seed last year.

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SquallidSnake | Posted 9/28/2006 3:58:12 PM | message detail
The 1 seed means a lot. There's no way Vincent has only 25% of the brackets winning his four-pack if Dante isn't a 1 seed.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/28/2006 4:00:32 PM | message detail
From SquallidSnake Posted 9/28/2006 6:58:12 PM #226
The 1 seed means a lot. There's no way Vincent has only 25% of the brackets winning his four-pack if Dante isn't a 1 seed.

BANG!

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI
wavedash101 | Posted 9/28/2006 4:02:25 PM | message detail
Dammit, you shot me!

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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/28/2006 6:00:54 PM | message detail
Yeah, but it was worth it. SquallidSnake really hit the nail on the head there.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
wavedash101 | Posted 9/28/2006 6:03:13 PM | message detail
*casts autolife*

*dies*

*comes back*

It was worth getting shot for.
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Draco1214 | Posted 9/28/2006 6:04:39 PM | message detail
This will be the first time someone from the Devil Division is put to the test. If Squall does much better than expected here, I'll think one of three things:

1) MASSIVE SFF
2) Kirby really is overrated and will be exposed soon.
3) Squall is a very real threat to Snake.

I'm calling for #2, personally.
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Character Battle V Score - 16/16 points
Current Prediction - Solid Snake vs. Soma Cruz
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 6:05:47 PM | message detail
Hmm...actually, I think the match to watch now is Dante/Hayabusa. If Dante impresses against Hayabusa, it could mean

A) The Devil Division wasn't overrated at all and Ganon needs to start sweating

B) Mario/Zero wasn't SFF at all and Zero is going to have to brace himself for a hell of a struggle with Luigi

C) lol action game SFF

or vice-versa.
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Draco1214 | Posted 9/28/2006 6:07:34 PM | message detail
It's tough to tell. If Hayabusa impresses, it could mean that either that there was SFF in Mario/Zero or that Dante is overrated.
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Character Battle V Score - 16/16 points
Current Prediction - Solid Snake vs. Soma Cruz
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 6:09:15 PM | message detail
Yeah, it's a one or the other dealie.

Or maybe characters don't stay perfectly constant from year to year?

*shoots dissenter*
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/28/2006 6:09:37 PM | message detail
SFF or not, something funky happened in Mario/Zero, and the Devil Division is self explanatory. Zero putting away Luigi and Kirby and Dante getting around what Zero got on Hayabusa will clear everything up!
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 6:10:27 PM | message detail
SFF or not, something funky happened in Mario/Zero, and the Devil Division is self explanatory. Zero putting away Luigi and Kirby and Dante getting around what Zero got on Hayabusa will clear everything up!

...that would just make me ask more questions.
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SecksThaNemesis | Posted 9/28/2006 6:10:51 PM | message detail
This is late, but good luck HaRRicH.
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Pride. Power. Pinstripes.
Draco1214 | Posted 9/28/2006 6:13:36 PM | message detail
I'm actually feeling pretty confident in Kirby being overrated, which is why I'm fully expecting a Squall overperformance tonight.

Here's a list of matches. What do they have in common?

Max Payne vs. Dirk the Daring
Max Payne vs. Gordon Freeman
Final Fantasy Tactics Advance vs. Fire Emblem
Vyse vs. Laharl
Luca Blight vs. Albert Wesker
Kirby vs. Bowser
Fire Emblem vs. Silent Hill

That's right. They were the lowest vote drawing matches in each contest. Now what's the difference between Kirby/Bowser and all the other aforementioned matches? They were all fodder vs. fodder matches. As a matter of fact, if you remove Kirby/Bowser, Lloyd vs. Wesker becomes the lowest scoring match of the contest (a fodder/fodder match!).

Now why would a match with two high profile characters like Kirby and Bowser score the lowest votals of the 2005 contest?
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Character Battle V Score - 16/16 points
Current Prediction - Solid Snake vs. Soma Cruz
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 6:15:56 PM | message detail
Are you implying that Bowser and Kirby are fodder? =(
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Draco1214 | Posted 9/28/2006 6:16:59 PM | message detail
Nah, I'm implying that there was something fishy with that match. Most likely rSFF.

Unless that was sarcasm, in which case, I new need sarcasm detector batteries. <_<
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Character Battle V Score - 16/16 points
Current Prediction - Solid Snake vs. Soma Cruz
Yesmar | Posted 9/28/2006 6:18:06 PM | message detail
I'm predicting Squall Vs. Tidus will become another Mega Man Vs. Zero in that I don't see Tidus getting SFF'd all that much if at all.

I don't really have any strong justification behind this, but I just think that Tidus should be able to hold his own. Any main character SFF he would be the victim of can be countered by FFX > FFVII.*



*I understand this is a controversial decision, but that's what I believe.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
Yesmar | Posted 9/28/2006 6:19:25 PM | message detail
Crap. That should be FFX > FFVIII. In other words, I think FFX being more popular than FFVIII will help Tidus avoid being SFF'd.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
WarThaNemesis | Posted 9/28/2006 6:20:36 PM | message detail
FFX > FFVII?

On a site where FFVII is by far the favorite game?

FFX > FFVIII MAYBE, but no Final Fantasy is anywhere CLOSE to FFVII. Heck, an optional character from FFVII beat the main character from FFVIII.
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War13104 had something weak beating something strong and he looks smarter than you or something - TessaTestarossa
WarThaNemesis | Posted 9/28/2006 6:21:06 PM | message detail
Oh, k.
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War13104 had something weak beating something strong and he looks smarter than you or something - TessaTestarossa
Draco1214 | Posted 9/28/2006 6:21:56 PM | message detail
I could see FFVIII being like the more powerful, game version of Master Chief in these contests.
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Character Battle V Score - 16/16 points
Current Prediction - Solid Snake vs. Soma Cruz
Garsha_III | Posted 9/28/2006 6:22:28 PM | message detail
FFTA vs. FFX was the match with the lowest votes back in Spring 2004.
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George Harrison > Flonne
Draco1214 | Posted 9/28/2006 6:23:19 PM | message detail
Ah, sorry about that then. Heh, it was an SFF match, which further proves my point.
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Character Battle V Score - 16/16 points
Current Prediction - Solid Snake vs. Soma Cruz
longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/28/2006 6:25:03 PM | message detail
...that would just make me ask more questions.

I can never please this KH fellow can I >_>
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
charmander6000 | Posted 9/28/2006 6:25:03 PM | message detail
Match XVIII: (4) Squall Leonhart vs. (5) Tidus

Contest History

Squall Leonhart


Summer 2002
Lost to Solid Snake, 34.57% - 65.43%
Ranked: 20th

Summer 2003
Defeated Jill Valentine, 59.99% - 40.01%
Defeated Luigi, 60.21% - 39.79%
Lost to Samus Aran, 41.80% - 58.20%
Ranked: 16th

Summer 2004
Defeated Bomberman, 64.75% - 35.25%
Defeated Kirby, 55.01% - 44.99%
Lost to Cloud Strife, 23.79% - 76.21%
Ranked: 19th

Summer 2005
Defeated Geno, 74.84% - 25.16%
Defeated Knuckles the Echidna, 53.80% - 46.20%
Lost to Vincent Valentine, 49.41% - 50.59%
Ranked: 11th

Tidus

Summer 2002
Defeated Claire Redfield, 55.46% - 44.54%
Lost to Sonic the Hedgehog, 41.17% - 58.83%
Ranked: 11th

Summer 2003
Lost to Ganondorf Dragmire, 49.32% - 50.68%
Ranked: 13th

Summer 2004
Defeated Shadow the Hedgehog, 50.81% - 49.19%
Lost to Mega Man, 35.22% - 64.78%
Ranked: 20th

Summer 2005
Defeated King of All Cosmos, 72.54% - 27.46%
Lost to Kirby, 42.35% - 57.65%
Ranked: 24th

Analysis:

Squall is from Final Fantasy VIII. Squall was one of those characters that started badly in 2k2, but got better as the years passed by. Before he was just first round fodder for Snake, but now he is one of the strongest non-Noble 9 characters. Tidus is from Final Fantasy X. What Squall did from 2k2 to 2k5 Tidus did the opposite. With FFX being released a year before the first contest Tidus started on fire and did just as well in 2k3, but as his game began to age so did his strength. Tidus is still quite strong; it’s just that he’s not as strong as he used to be.

If this match was held back in 2k4 it would’ve been very debated (though not close), but now it’s going to be an easy win for Squall and everybody on Board 8 knows it. One of the things that are up in the air is by how much Squall will win by. Last year Squall could’ve been overrated because of AC being leaked just days before Vincent lost to Crono. I think Squall is slightly overrated, but I also think that Tidus may also be overrated because of either Kirby overperforming against Bowser or Bowser overperforming against Snake or a combination of the two. With any luck it’ll probably cancel each other out.

Another thing is the possibility of SFF. Now I know Square doesn’t SFF each other that badly unless they are from the same game, but I do think Squall will be able to SFF Tidus. It won’t be anything like Aeris/Sora, but it will be noticeable enough for us to say that there was SFF.

During the first few contests Tidus was on top of the world, but what we weren’t expecting was for Tidus to age and become weaker. Squall will take this easily and will be getting ready for a rematch against Solid Snake next round.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Squall Leonhart over Tidus

charmander6000’s Prediction: Squall wins, 60.65% - 39.35%

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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 6:30:38 PM | message detail
I can never please this KH fellow can I >_>

Eh, it just raises questions because Hayabusa getting destroyed like that would imply a weaker Zero, but Zero ends up taking his fourpack anyway...

I really am having a hard time seeing Zero lose that fourpack, though...I don't know why I took Kirby. Stupid X-Stats.
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