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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 371

Mega Mana | Posted 9/28/2006 11:04:21 AM | message detail
*hangs out int he corner, hoping some of this stat knowledge stuff will rub off for later contets*
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consolefreak | Posted 9/28/2006 11:07:58 AM | message detail
I want to see how the afterschool vote holds before making any conclusions about this match for Snake...this is actually more about trends for me since we can't establish any conclusions on strength.

Amen to that. Though this is a great performance either way: I would certainly expect Soma to beat Manny comfortably.

Who would win between squall and ganondorf?

Just like Vincent, Squall would dispose of Ganny with minimal effort!!!

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Heroic Mario | Posted 9/28/2006 11:10:02 AM | message detail
Seeing Vincent get beat as bad as Auron is going to be glorious.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 11:11:32 AM | message detail
I like this line of thought that Vincent is as weak as pre-KH2 Auron. It makes you seem that much more delusional! =D
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Heroic Mario | Posted 9/28/2006 11:12:27 AM | message detail
Uh huh.

That Devil Division wasn't overrated or anything! Nope! And Ganon's going to remain static this year! Oh yeah! Completely!

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Haste_2 | Posted 9/28/2006 11:15:55 AM | message detail
Ganon beats Squall. Vincent's a little different story. The effect Dirge of Cerberus and Animal...er, Advent Children will be better for Vincent than KH2 will be for Squall, as Squall already had KH1.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 11:16:12 AM | message detail
I thought the Devil Division was overrated "like 2%, if anything" !!

And I scoff at -dorf boosting. Both he and Zelda are in for a rude awakening -- though Christmas comes two rounds early for Ganon!
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Heroic Mario | Posted 9/28/2006 11:18:30 AM | message detail
I thought the Devil Division was overrated "like 2%, if anything" !!

He'll just gain what he lost from being overrated with his crappy game and that movie! That means he's right back where he was...except now Ganon is stronger than he was last year. Take it to the bank.

Ganon > Sonic is alive and well, folks!

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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 11:21:29 AM | message detail
It just wouldn't be a contest without HM sticking to his crazy upset pick until the very end!

(y'know, when it explodes in flames and we all point and laugh and he says "But I picked Vincent to win the Devil Division. =(")
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Heroic Mario | Posted 9/28/2006 11:23:48 AM | message detail
Pfft. I'll erase any mistakes I will have made in the past when The King of Evil takes care of that hedgehog. It would be me calling the end of the Noble Nine correctly! What a day it will be!


And for even more injury, Zelda takes care of Final Fantasy VII three times this contest! Some of you chose FFVII in every instance, too -- ouch to that!

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Kaxon | Posted 9/28/2006 11:26:37 AM | message detail
It wouldn't be a contest without HM defending some kind of ridiculous prediction...

Expecting Ganon to do significiantly better than his best year for no reason is pretty optimistic. And post-AC, post-DoC Vincent is on a completely different level from pre-KH2 Auron.
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Heroic Mario | Posted 9/28/2006 11:28:07 AM | message detail
Except he doesn't need to be significantly better than last year. He was, you know, underrated that year in the stats.

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/28/2006 11:28:41 AM | message detail
Soma Cruz's went below expectations and his games are handheld...yet Phoenix Wright's only game is handheld. Bad sign for Phoenix?

Bad sign for Kirby is more like it. >_>

Just like Vincent, Squall would dispose of Ganny with minimal effort!!!

Psh, Ganon is to Squall as Auron is to Master Chief. You'd have to believe MC > Auron (not to mention Chunners/Lara > Yuna) to believe Squall could dispose of Ganny with minimal effort.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 11:31:03 AM | message detail
Psh, Ganon is to Squall as Auron is to Master Chief. You'd have to believe MC > Auron (not to mention Chunners/Lara > Yuna) to believe Squall could dispose of Ganny with minimal effort.

Heh, MC = OVERRATED (if I've said it once I've said it a thousand times), and Chun Li is taking out Yuna. =P

Plus Squall has KH2 on his side, yo.
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Heroic Mario | Posted 9/28/2006 11:32:02 AM | message detail
Fear the tiny KH2 boost Squall will get!

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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 11:33:32 AM | message detail
I'll fear it more than the nonexistent Ganon > Sonic boost!
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/28/2006 11:36:18 AM | message detail
Quick! How much is the strongest Tidus projected to get on Squall?
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Kaxon | Posted 9/28/2006 11:36:30 AM | message detail
Except he doesn't need to be significantly better than last year. He was, you know, underrated that year in the stats.

Not by as much as you'd like to think. Magus, Tidus, and Alucard all put him comfortably below his 2005 ranking. In fact, extrapolating through any of them gives Vincent around 56% against Ganon. Yeah, he increased some in 2005, but that's a lot of ground to make up, and Vincent has more reason to have increased this year than Ganon.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/28/2006 11:36:50 AM | message detail
I'll fear it more than the nonexistent Ganon > Sonic boost!

Psh, Ganon will boost in 2k6 for the same reason he boosted in 2k5!
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 11:37:22 AM | message detail
Though on a serious note I'd expect Ganon to edge out Vincent and Squall in 2k5...but it's an uneasy pick. Now factor in that it's DoC/AC or KH2 versus nothing, and...

Ganon is hard to pinpoint, but him behind SFF doesn't suddenly make him stronger than Crono.
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Kaxon | Posted 9/28/2006 11:38:35 AM | message detail
Psh, Ganon is to Squall as Auron is to Master Chief. You'd have to believe MC > Auron (not to mention Chunners/Lara > Yuna) to believe Squall could dispose of Ganny with minimal effort.

Maybe I'm dumb, but how are those characters related at all?
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Round 1: Sonic
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 11:39:38 AM | message detail
Maybe I'm dumb, but how are those characters related at all?

Auron and Yuna are behind Ganon. He's implying that can only hold true if you assume Ganon's not underrated.
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/28/2006 11:44:07 AM | message detail
No really, strongest Squall vs strongest Tidus expected x-stats now plz. I have theories to develop >_>
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
creativename | Posted 9/28/2006 11:44:22 AM | message detail
I have a feeling that poor Tidus is going to get his ass beat down tomorrow.
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transience | Posted 9/28/2006 11:45:31 AM | message detail
I've got no idea what to expect tomorrow. I almost feel like the female bracket was more predictable as far as percentages go despite not knowing who the hell they were and having no data on them.
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Heroic Mario | Posted 9/28/2006 11:45:51 AM | message detail
Not by as much as you'd like to think. Magus, Tidus, and Alucard all put him comfortably below his 2005 ranking.

You would be absolutely dumb to even think about using any of those three to try to determine Ganon's most recent value. Ganon is not attached to Magus or Tidus in any way, shape, or form. The fact that Magus was exposed as overrated has no effect on Ganon anymore. He likely boosted in 2004 and again in 2005, which should put him far away from Magus and Tidus. There's zero reason to even bring them up in relation to Ganon anymore.

And Alucard is a whole different mess. What Ganon got on Alucard in 2004 would not be what Ganon would get on Alucard today. Sora got 55% on Alucard for crying out loud. Unless Sora is insanely underrated -- and he is by at least three percent, I would say -- then Alucard is not going to break 40% on Ganon at any point in time anymore. Characters can increase and decrease; Alucard doing this would not be a shock.

In fact, extrapolating through any of them gives Vincent around 56% against Ganon. Yeah, he increased some in 2005, but that's a lot of ground to make up, and Vincent has more reason to have increased this year than Ganon.

Ganon beat Yuna by a few percentage points more than Bowser is projected to beat Tidus. Yuna should be very close to Tidus, but definitely not having the advantage. Ganon is not, not, not that far behind Bowser. The entire idea that Bowser is that far ahead is just stupid. The two of them are very close to each other. And Ganon putting up 40% on Samus of all characters is enough proof to me that he's got plenty of strength there to take care of Vincent, who is most certainly not boosting from his current value.

Ganon has far more reason to be underrated than he ever had to be overrated.

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voltch | Posted 9/28/2006 11:46:50 AM | message detail
so since most people expect tidus to crumble under mighty squall how would auron fare?

and it's benn proven that auron>tidus right?
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 11:49:13 AM | message detail
As of their last appearances:

Squall (2005c) VS Tidus (2005c)

Squall has a strength of 35.16.
Tidus has a strength of 29.63.

Squall wins with 57.86% of the vote!
A win of 14,597 with 92,812 total votes cast.


Going by strongest appearances (lol Magus):

Squall (2005c) VS Tidus (2003c)

Squall has a strength of 35.16.
Tidus has a strength of 34.25.

Squall wins with 51.29% of the vote!
A win of 2,391 with 92,370 total votes cast.


By weakest appearances:

Squall (2002c) VS Tidus (2004c)

Squall has a strength of 24.36.
Tidus has a strength of 27.19.

Tidus wins with 55.20% of the vote!
A win of 9,569 with 91,932 total votes cast.


...I guess if you pretend KH never existed and nothing funny happened in Snake/Squall that Tidus has a shot!

Also, you should consider using THIS wonderful site in the future. I know *I* do!!!

thengamer.com/xstats

Exclusively, even!
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Heroic Mario | Posted 9/28/2006 11:49:50 AM | message detail
Auron would hold up much better than what Tidus will end up doing. I wouldn't be surprised if Tidus didn't break 40% and Auron would easily be able to get over 45% in a match with Squall.

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Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/28/2006 11:50:31 AM | message detail
I'm pretty sure that 2002 and 2003 Tidus > Squall's strongest.

Don't get me wrong, I've Squall winning and I think Squall could be the 10th strongest character this year, but the Magus fourpack in 2003 was totally awesome.
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/28/2006 11:51:17 AM | message detail
And KH just proved that I was wrong XD
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Supporter of Alucard.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 11:52:32 AM | message detail
I think without KH, Squall/Auron would be an extremely tough match for me. Now Auron has KH2, and has arguably the best role out of any FF character in it. I'm very tempted to take Auron in that setup, much like I'd be tempted to take him in a rematch against Ganny.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 11:59:07 AM | message detail
The problem with Ganondorf is that it's just so hard to think of him as not being a near-elite, despite the fact that he never was in 2003 or 2004. Other than that, his most impressive value comes from the Villains Contest, which is very suspect...and it's not like you can't take certain characters that reappeared in 2005 to make it a minus as well as a plus.

Hmm...I'm with mnm with this. Ganon's big victory over Auron is definitely the most impressive thing he's ever done in these contests...especially now that I've played FFX (which got me upset over that result in hindsight, LOL). If it weren't for that I'd categorize him in the same group as Magus.
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Heroic Mario | Posted 9/28/2006 12:03:09 PM | message detail
Out of curiosity, would anyone here even think about taking Magus over Ganon now?

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Draco1214 | Posted 9/28/2006 12:03:45 PM | message detail
Of course not, but I don't think Ganon would break 55%.
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Haste_2 | Posted 9/28/2006 12:04:09 PM | message detail
I say measuring Ganondorf through Diablo is more reliable than any other match, since he went through Kefka, and predicting Kefka/Diablo using SC2K5's stats is almost on the dot. That predicts a Vincent victory with about 51% there for last year.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 12:04:15 PM | message detail
lol Magus

Maybe after a CT remake...no, not even then.
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Heroic Mario | Posted 9/28/2006 12:06:44 PM | message detail
I think Ganon would beat Magus with more than 55% myself. It's not hard to imagine a 50/50 result going in Ganon's favor after, what, three years and a nice Nintendo shift? It's certainly not a close match, I'll say that much.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 12:07:51 PM | message detail
I like Ganon through Diablo myself, but it's not perfect. Diablo just comes off as a character that would suffer more when put into a regular field thanks to votals...I'd take M. Bison to really put the fear into him in a regular contest after seeing what Kratos pulled off.

Though it's worth considering that Diablo didn't even get linked against Ganon...eh, I like Dorf a smidge above where Diablo puts him. And maybe Vincent a bit below where he looks, so Ganon gets that slight victory that can still be overcome due to AC/DoC.

Yes! Everything is lining up with my imaginary stats!!!
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/28/2006 12:14:31 PM | message detail
I still think Magus would take down Ganondorf.

I just don't see any reason why Ganondorf would make Tidus and Alucard much stronger than they actually where. And I think the same will be proven for Auron. Juding by previous years, Auron is just 3% stronger than Alucard and Ganondorf is just 2% stronger than pre KH2 Sora.
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shadow8021 | Posted 9/28/2006 12:16:21 PM | message detail
As for the Devil Division, everybody except Vincent was overrated, because Vincent increased before facing Crono with some nice AC leakage. Now that AC is out and DoC is there, it's not a stretch to see Vincent on the same level as Snake or Sonic, IMO. As for Ganon, he really doesn't have much room for improvement. I think what he showed against Samus was not SFF, because why could she SFF him, and not NIDORAN F???
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 12:27:40 PM | message detail
We don't have any data on Nidoran F, so the case could be made that she *was* SFFed...very doubtful, though. This is why I don't buy her SFFing Ganon significantly, though the possibility of her being stronger than Mario indirectly certainly exists.

(though it won't matter when Mega Man takes her down a notch come finals time!)
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 12:31:02 PM | message detail
Also, clearly all Ganondorf needs is an appearance as a random Pokemon to reverse the result of his match with Samus entirely. Kryptonite, indeed...
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/28/2006 12:45:48 PM | message detail
That Devil Division wasn't overrated or anything

Now you're catching on! Honestly, Knuckles is the only character I'd have any question about, and that's no reason to discount an entire division on that.

You'd have to believe MC > Auron (not to mention Chunners/Lara > Yuna) to believe Squall could dispose of Ganny with minimal effort.

Maybe not minimal effort, but Ganon through Diablo is below 2005 Squall, so it's not like it's impossible.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 12:48:38 PM | message detail
I ascribe to the Ulti-philosophy of contest margins, where "minimal effort" is 51%+. <<
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/28/2006 12:50:26 PM | message detail
I'm not going to ask how much Squall can get before you worry about him beating Snake since any massive performance will be attributed to SFF, but how much can Tidus get on Squall before we Vincent pickers get worried about Ganondorf?
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Garsha_III | Posted 9/28/2006 12:50:54 PM | message detail
Ganondorf will beat Magus with at least 55%, possibly over 60%.

Magus has proven himself to be a fraud, and is overrated in the Devil Division. Ganondorf got 42% against Sephiroth.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/28/2006 12:52:29 PM | message detail
Ganondorf will beat Magus with at least 55%, possibly over 60%.

60% is a little beyond Ganondorf's max, in my opinion.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/28/2006 12:53:51 PM | message detail
Tidus could get 45% and I wouldn't bat an eye...this is a weird match for me, for reasons that will be explained in my writeup.

Magus has proven himself to be a fraud

Which retroactively in turn proved Ganon and Tidus to be frauds as well.

Ganondorf got 42% against Sephiroth.

So you're taking him to win the male bracket, I assume?
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SquallidSnake | Posted 9/28/2006 12:56:00 PM | message detail
Glad to see Solid Snake maintaining as the after school vote begins. Hopefully, this is a sign of things to come...
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October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake