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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 371

Haste_2 | Posted 9/28/2006 9:54:34 PM | message detail
Whoops, I meant Aeris beating Sora and Marle. =p

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transience | Posted 9/28/2006 9:55:14 PM | message detail
oh, you mean Aeris. I don't know.. I'm not sure if we're really going to have any kind of a read on what's happening here with Squall / Snake being potentially weird.
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Haste_2 | Posted 9/28/2006 9:56:02 PM | message detail
One reason SFF may be so severe: Tidus rides the popularity of FFX much more than Squall from FFVIII, and FFX is significantly more popular.

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TheCruelAngel | Posted 9/28/2006 10:01:06 PM | message detail
Is it fair to say that Squall has a decent shot at achieving the tripling?
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Haste_2 | Posted 9/28/2006 10:01:51 PM | message detail
Man, I -so- wish this match would've taken place last year.

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/28/2006 10:02:16 PM | message detail
Prince of Persia > Kirby? Believe.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/28/2006 10:02:39 PM | message detail
XDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD

Oh Teedus, not only do you completely suck in your game, but you suck in everything else too.

Feeling very comfortable about Zero taking his fourpack now. And after this, I'd say Squall/Bowser is too close to call.

And if Round 2 is a sprite round..... may God help us all!


TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 9/28/2006 10:02:40 PM | message detail
I don't think so. Tidus will probably gain once the overnight vote hits and from there.. well, who knows. I think it's a safe bet to stay in the low 70's.

I don't remember Squall being good with the day vote either. I know he lost it vs. Vincent and, of course, vs. Knuckles. I don't recall him flopping with it though.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
dragoontheguy | Posted 9/28/2006 10:03:28 PM | message detail
Is it fair to say that Squall has a decent shot at achieving the tripling?

It depends mostly on what happens in the day, but a half hour ago I would've said he has no chance at all... now he's making significant percentage gains per update again. It's entirely possible.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
Starion | Posted 9/28/2006 10:04:37 PM | message detail
Well, Tidus' day vote sucked against Kirby. But then again, the pink ball is a Nintendo character.

Squall actually beating Snake = major bracket buster.

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dragoontheguy | Posted 9/28/2006 10:05:47 PM | message detail
Isn't squall a major KH character? Could kh2 potentially have improved his day vote?
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
Haste_2 | Posted 9/28/2006 10:06:00 PM | message detail
People are so sure about Zero winning his 4-pack? Don't forget Luigi, yo. And, if Luigi gets by Zero, Kirby has the 4-pack in the bag. :p

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dragoontheguy | Posted 9/28/2006 10:10:47 PM | message detail
I think zero was slightly underrated, and luigi slightly overrated by last years stats, but that's just me. I don't see luigi winning that match, although I guess it's possible.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/28/2006 10:11:23 PM | message detail
People are so sure about Zero winning his 4-pack? Don't forget Luigi, yo. And, if Luigi gets by Zero, Kirby has the 4-pack in the bag. :p

Zero > Tifa > Luigi
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Haste_2 | Posted 9/28/2006 10:12:02 PM | message detail
If Zero > Tifa, Aeris > Tifa!

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/28/2006 10:12:41 PM | message detail
From Haste_2 Posted 9/29/2006 1:06:00 AM
People are so sure about Zero winning his 4-pack? Don't forget Luigi, yo. And, if Luigi gets by Zero, Kirby has the 4-pack in the bag. :p

To me, Zero/Luigi is no contest.

Zero got over 45% on Mega Man and Sonic.

Luigi barely broke that against Tifa.


TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Haste_2 | Posted 9/28/2006 10:14:08 PM | message detail
For what it's worth, SMB exceeded anybody's expectations against FF in the series contest. Luigi might've boosted again. And, we still can't say for sure if Zero's underrated. But, yeah, odds are very much in Zero's favor.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/28/2006 10:16:57 PM | message detail
I'm a firm believer that Zero underratedness through Mario and Kirby overratedness through Bowser and Snake means that Zero should have his fourpack in the bag.

Not to mention Tidus really being this damn weak and Kirby overperforming on Bowser who in turn overperformed against Snake really meshes up, and helps explain Kirby's mysterious boost and Tidus sucking more than he should have.


TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 9/28/2006 10:18:45 PM | message detail
say that ten times fast.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
Kyle Bowen | Posted 9/28/2006 10:26:45 PM | message detail
Yes, I am feeling bad about my Kirby>Zero pick... at least for the moment.

Zero seemed like he was on the down... Kirby on the up... but it is just one match... and you cant take what Kirby did against Bowser away...

Ehh...

GO SQUALL.


KB
Haste_2 | Posted 9/28/2006 10:27:56 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Haste_2 | Posted 9/28/2006 10:29:18 PM | message detail
Zero's winning the 4-pack on my alt bracket! Thing is...I have Auron winning it all with that set of picks.

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/28/2006 10:39:58 PM | message detail
If Zero > Tifa, Aeris > Tifa!

Pre-KH2, of course. And back then, what's wrong with Aeris > Tifa? It doesn't necessarily follow though, as 2k3 gave us some pretty decent evidence that Zero's stronger than Aeris, so Zero > Aeris = Tifa is quite possible.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/28/2006 10:42:07 PM | message detail
I wouldn't take Aeris over Tifa.

A good chunk of the FF7 fanbase doesn't like Aeris at all, while a bigger chunk either likes, or is indifferent towards Tifa.


TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Kyle Bowen | Posted 9/28/2006 10:51:22 PM | message detail
I guess bedtime is calling... I am guessing this score wont move much until daytime comes... then we see if Squall has anymore KH Juice in him.


Mmm.... Squalls KH juice...


KB
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/28/2006 10:58:03 PM | message detail
Wasn't the male bracket going to stop kinda of matches?

Hopefully this is a sign of true FFX weakness so Alucard wins over Auron. Believe
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/28/2006 11:00:20 PM | message detail
Squall has absolutely kicked Tidus's ass.

Even then though, it's still mostly SFF with a big pinch of KH2 thrown in as well. I'm not gonna use this match to say this match means Squall will really impress against Solid, but this match does mean Squall has a very impressive win here.




Hey guys, since we use to toy around with this alot...Sora/Tidus, who ya got now? =P
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therealmnm | Posted 9/28/2006 11:03:50 PM | message detail
Sora
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transience | Posted 9/28/2006 11:05:39 PM | message detail
I had Sora before this match.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
YoboD | Posted 9/28/2006 11:07:51 PM | message detail
I'd take Sora.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/28/2006 11:17:47 PM | message detail
Sora, but not because of this match.


TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Gaddswell | Posted 9/28/2006 11:47:34 PM | message detail
Whoa, Squall started climbing again.

Squall Leonhart -------------73.1% --------------- 13926
Tidus ---------------------------26.9% ----------------- 5125
TOTAL VOTES ---------------------------------------- 19051
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__Smurf__ | Posted 9/29/2006 12:24:55 AM | message detail
No SFF here, folks. Squall's justs going to defeat Link, that's all. ¬_¬

Link 72.85% 70,701
Tidus 27.15% 26,354
TOTAL VOTES 97,054
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creativename | Posted 9/29/2006 12:33:47 AM | message detail
Goodness gracious...this is a helluva whupping.

I suspected Squall could push a doubling but this is hilarious (and I voted for Tidus).

Given Squall's presence in Kingdom Hearts he's probably more likely to take the day vote too. A tripling might even be likely at this point.

Interesting how Squall goes up every year while Tidus drops every year.


I never would think that Tidus fans are that loyal to him. They have to spend enough time justifying why he's a good character in the first place!

Heh.
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creativename | Posted 9/29/2006 12:36:23 AM | message detail
Regarding Zero/Kirby, the two things that never made sense to me were Kirby being favored over Zero and Yoshi being favored over Dante.

Glad to see that people are coming to their senses on Zero/Kirby. Kirby has a good shot to win, but Zero deserves to be the favorite.

Though on Dante, as I said earlier I wouldn't be surprised to see Ryu overperform on him. I don't really think that would indicate weakness on Dante's part.
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transience | Posted 9/29/2006 12:42:19 AM | message detail
I believe the stats topic faves are Zero and Dante, actually. it's the rest of the board that believes in all things Nintendo - which, given the last contest, is not all that bad of an idea.
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xyzzy
creativename | Posted 9/29/2006 12:51:17 AM | message detail
The BOP is pretty much the definitive source for who the pre-contest board favorites are. No way to judge stats topic favorites outside of that. I doubt it would differ much anyway.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/29/2006 2:00:37 AM | message detail
Now is another good time to say it:

Link is so screwed.

Interesting result, makes me wish I had gone a bit higher...but yeah, I'm definitely feeling better about KH2 doing wonders for Squall...like I said, he definitely has a shot against Snake, it's just that I think in the end Snake is going to pull rSFF to win if he has to.

Hey, if KH2 didn't do much -- sorry Ganon, no Devil Division overratedness for you! In fact, this might be partially Squall's real strength being hidden thanks to Crono/Vincent SFF! =D

Also, Kirby is screwed, as if I needed more convincing. And no overrating for Dante, but I considered the strongest Dante possible when taking Yoshi over him -- I like to rely on a character's strengths, rather than their weaknesses.

...no one getting a little antsy about Link/Cloud? You all have seemed to take the idea that KH2 won't do nearly as much as KH1 for granted...
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transience | Posted 9/29/2006 2:10:29 AM | message detail
heh, didn't even think about Cloud vs. Link with this in mind. again, I don't think we should read too much into it - this is just a Square/Square SFF match and we've seen those before. heck, Cloud beat Squall worse than Squall's beating Tidus - of course Cloud is in a whole different stratosphere than Squall or Tidus are, but the point stands. to me, this match is more about what KH in general has done for Squall. you could make the point that Squall and Tidus were approximately equal before KH came out, and I think the stats actually say that Tidus is stronger. *looks* yeah, almost 10% stronger, though those are 2k2 and, well, lol 2k2 stats.

does Squall beat Tidus in 2k2? yeah, probably. but a lot of this result is just showing what Kingdom Hearts can do for a character.
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transience | Posted 9/29/2006 2:12:31 AM | message detail
The BOP is pretty much the definitive source for who the pre-contest board favorites are. No way to judge stats topic favorites outside of that. I doubt it would differ much anyway.

you'd be amazed, actually. the frequent posters in this topic are a slightly different crowd to the main board. for example, the stats topic was Mario Kart > Mega Man's biggest supporter whereas the board was almost overwhelmingly in Mega Man's favour. (of course, once a couple of us started arguing the pick, a lot of the board switched.) I'm fairly certain that Zero is the majority pick of the frequent posters in here.
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/29/2006 2:13:59 AM | message detail
I don't call this as picture proof of anything, but I'll be damned if all this Squall > Snake hype goes around and I don't get a Cloud > Link shot edgewise.

And Tidus > Squall that decisively in 2k2 makes me think something's up there. Part of it is Tidus being overrated, but another part is likely, yes, Snake/Squall. So that helps Squall's case for being stronger...but not so much for him actually winning against Snake.

I mean, I'm not the only one that would take Squall > Sonic before Squall > Snake, right?
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creativename | Posted 9/29/2006 2:14:01 AM | message detail
I doubt Squall would've beat Tidus in 2K2 actually. Things have just changed a lot since then.
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transience | Posted 9/29/2006 2:14:30 AM | message detail
also, it's rather interesting how Squall/Snake SFF has become accepted here to the point where you don't have to argue it. that's interesting for a matchup with no company or even genre similarities.
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 9/29/2006 2:15:46 AM | message detail
I mean, I'm not the only one that would take Squall > Sonic before Squall > Snake, right?

I thought about this once and figured Sonic / Squall was the best matchup. or maybe Mega Man / Squall, though Mega Man did a real number on Tidus. granted Tidus is no Squall, but the point stands.

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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/29/2006 2:16:42 AM | message detail
Meh, I don't necessarily accept it as fact, it's just too weird to ignore. It might have been a random fluke for all we know, which would make Squall's upset prospects tons better.

Though there's still Snake/Sora to think about...
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creativename | Posted 9/29/2006 2:18:50 AM | message detail
you'd be amazed, actually.

Nope.

the frequent posters in this topic are a slightly different crowd to the main board. for example, the stats topic was Mario Kart > Mega Man's biggest supporter whereas the board was almost overwhelmingly in Mega Man's favour. (of course, once a couple of us started arguing the pick, a lot of the board switched.)

That match was 87-46 in the BOP, which probably reflects the stats topic pretty accurately as far as we can tell.

I'm fairly certain that Zero is the majority pick of the frequent posters in here.

Now way to tell so it's not worth mentioning.

also, it's rather interesting how Squall/Snake SFF has become accepted here to the point where you don't have to argue it

What? I don't buy it at all, it's bogus. Squall was a lot weaker in 2K2 than he is now.

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transience | Posted 9/29/2006 2:19:10 AM | message detail
well, if there's been one theme of this contest so far, it's "lol 2k2 stats". a direct match means a little bit more than x-stats, but I still question a four year old match.

..though 65/35 is tough to ignore. plus Squall's had a couple big reasons to boost and we never saw him in any other matches, so we have no idea what to think of that Snake match. for all we know KH could be his main source of strength.
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xyzzy
Mainland 0 reborN | Posted 9/29/2006 2:19:50 AM | message detail
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/29/2006 2:21:55 AM | message detail
Squall was a lot weaker in 2K2 than he is now.

But weak enough to lose to Tidus...?

...and honestly, why people think Tidus has lost strength baffles me. The man was overrated in 2k2 and 2k3. Thing is, even Tidus' worst value beats 2k2 Squall...
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transience | Posted 9/29/2006 2:23:34 AM | message detail
yeah, something just seems weird there. but I don't want to say it's "SFF", you know?
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xyzzy