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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 370

Draco1214 | Posted 9/27/2006 6:43:29 PM | message detail
Can we talk about other things? I'm getting sick of PW/GF discussion. Everything that could have been argued has already been argued.

So:

Soma Cruz vs. Kefka.
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Character Battle V Score - 15/15 points
Current Prediction - Lara Croft vs. Alyx Vance
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/27/2006 6:44:33 PM | message detail
Soma. I am never taking anything FF6 in a close match. It's worked so far.

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Z1mZum won the Guru Contest. I picked Pokemon over Metroid, GTA over Warcraft, Halo over CV, Street Fighter over RE, and FF over Zelda.
longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/27/2006 6:44:40 PM | message detail
Soma wins with say 55%.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
Draco1214 | Posted 9/27/2006 6:47:15 PM | message detail
I don't think we'll be seeing a quadding by Snake tonight. Especially if Soma's stronger than Kefka.
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Character Battle V Score - 15/15 points
Current Prediction - Lara Croft vs. Alyx Vance
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/27/2006 6:54:53 PM | message detail
Have we ever seen Soma in a poll before? I don't get why he'd beat Kefka without a struggle; he's only starred in two handheld games.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
Haste_2 | Posted 9/27/2006 6:55:22 PM | message detail
If Soma's stronger than Kefka, Snake wouldn't even manage 70%.

I think Soma vs. Conker would be a good match...*hides*

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Sign the Petition for more stats in the GameFAQs Contests here:
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trannyscience | Posted 9/27/2006 6:55:23 PM | message detail
amen.

I've actually been thinking about Soma vs. Kefka today and I checked out the x-stat projection before putting in my oracle today. I think Soma's at the fodder line, not well below like some people seem to think.
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xyzzy
Draco1214 | Posted 9/27/2006 6:56:06 PM | message detail
The DS is showing to be decently strong on this site and Soma's from a very strong series. I just don't think he's weak enough to let Snake quad him.
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Character Battle V Score - 15/15 points
Current Prediction - Lara Croft vs. Alyx Vance
Haste_2 | Posted 9/27/2006 6:57:10 PM | message detail
It's difficult for me to see a Castlevania character that could make a GameFAQs contest be worse than high fodder.

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Draco1214 | Posted 9/27/2006 6:58:33 PM | message detail
Isn't Simon Belmont projected to avoid the quadding?
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Character Battle V Score - 15/15 points
Current Prediction - Lara Croft vs. Alyx Vance
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/27/2006 6:59:31 PM | message detail
I'd take Kefka over Soma easily.
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Lara Croft vs. Alyx Vance / Bracket: Lara Croft / Vote: Abstain (14/15)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Solid Snake / Vote: Solid Snake
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/27/2006 7:05:11 PM | message detail
I think Soma should end up around Kefka's strength when all is said and done. He comes from two rather popular Castlevania titles that are designed similar to SOTN. Given the presence of the DS and GBA at this site, he should be able to at least be high end fodder.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/27/2006 7:07:19 PM | message detail
Isn't Simon Belmont projected to avoid the quadding?

Yeah. Snake's projected to get 76.49% on Simon Belmont.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
frisqo | Posted 9/27/2006 7:28:33 PM | message detail
who wants to give me the link to he contest pics?
Same Orphanage | Posted 9/27/2006 7:30:43 PM | message detail
I'm hoping Soma surprises and gets something like 30% on Snake. It's not that likely, but it would be nice to see.
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CB5 Points: 14/15, Current Oracle placement: 20/156
Now playing: Xenosaga 3 (kinda)
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/27/2006 7:30:43 PM | message detail
Meh, I just can't picture Soma being that much stronger than Simon.
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Lara Croft vs. Alyx Vance / Bracket: Lara Croft / Vote: Abstain (14/15)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Solid Snake / Vote: Solid Snake
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 9/27/2006 7:32:47 PM | message detail
I predict Soma will fall flat on his face and you all be calling Snake as the contest winner in a few hours. >_>

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Can't think of a good sig.
trannyscience | Posted 9/27/2006 7:35:56 PM | message detail
Simon is Soma's floor, in my opinion. both Sorrow games would beat the old CV titles easily. the only thing Simon has going for him is nostalgia, and his game is getting a lot older as time passes.

though I think Snake would beat Simon with over 80%. this Snake should be stronger than last year's and Simon is undoubtedly weaker.. not to mention it's 2002 stats.
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xyzzy
Same Orphanage | Posted 9/27/2006 7:38:02 PM | message detail
Yeah, especially with the Sorrow games being quasi-successful.

Who would you take in Simon/Soma?
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CB5 Points: 14/15, Current Oracle placement: 20/156
Now playing: Xenosaga 3 (kinda)
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/27/2006 7:39:19 PM | message detail
I'd take Soma without much trouble.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
trannyscience | Posted 9/27/2006 7:42:20 PM | message detail
Which Castlevania title is your all-time favorite?

1431 3.7% Aria of Sorrow (GBA)
589 1.52% Bloodlines (GEN)
735 1.9% Dracula X (SNES)
2899 7.49% Castlevania (NES)
2200 5.68% Castlevania II (NES)
1598 4.13% Castlevania III (NES)
2034 5.25% Castlevania 64 (N64)
3073 7.94% Circle of the Moon (GBA)
1174 3.03% Harmony of Dissonance (GBA)
913 2.36% Legacy of Darkness (N64)
584 1.51% Rondo of Blood (TCD)
2996 7.74% Super Castlevania IV (SNES)
17842 46.07% Symphony of the Night (PSX)
656 1.69% White Night Concerto (GBA)

TOTAL VOTES: 38724


this was taken just two weeks after Aria came out. Dawn is almost definitely stronger than Aria too.
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xyzzy
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/27/2006 7:43:32 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb5/cb528.jpg
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/displayimage.php?album=6&pos=27

The resemblence is uncanny...

Soma. I am never taking anything FF6 in a close match. It's worked so far.

Kefka vs. Pac-Man?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/27/2006 7:44:29 PM | message detail
White Night Concerto is the Japanese AoS, right?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/27/2006 7:45:28 PM | message detail
Kefka vs. Pac-Man?

Wasn't around for the contests then. I started seriously entering these things around the Villains Contest.

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Z1mZum won the Guru Contest. I picked Pokemon over Metroid, GTA over Warcraft, Halo over CV, Street Fighter over RE, and FF over Zelda.
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/27/2006 7:46:06 PM | message detail
...Which just reminded me that I picked Kefka to win his four pack in that contest. See? Even more of a reason for me not to trust FF6.

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Z1mZum won the Guru Contest. I picked Pokemon over Metroid, GTA over Warcraft, Halo over CV, Street Fighter over RE, and FF over Zelda.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/27/2006 7:56:03 PM | message detail
Kefka did win his fourpack, despite all the claims of a Wesker upset. What's your point?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/27/2006 7:59:57 PM | message detail
Hm.. Kefka struggled with Pac-Man, I guess Soma really would give Pac-Man a good match.
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Lara Croft vs. Alyx Vance / Bracket: Lara Croft / Vote: Abstain (14/15)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Solid Snake / Vote: Solid Snake
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/27/2006 8:00:03 PM | message detail
Er, Kefka*
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Lara Croft vs. Alyx Vance / Bracket: Lara Croft / Vote: Abstain (14/15)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Solid Snake / Vote: Solid Snake
Master Moltar | Posted 9/27/2006 8:08:06 PM | message detail
Patriot Division: Round 1 - Match 17 – (1)Solid Snake vs. (8)Soma Cruz

Moltar’s Analysis

Snake
Game/Series Known From: Metal Gear Solid
Extrapolated Rank in 2002: 9th (35.23%)
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: 8th (35.90%)
Extrapolated Rank in 2004: 11th (27.74%) - Adjusted Value: 12th (30.82%)
Extrapolated Rank in 2005: 8th (33.88%)
Seed in 2002: 2
Seed in 2003: 1
Seed in 2004: 2
Seed in 2005: 1
Lost in 2002 to Crono in the Elite 8
Lost in 2003 to Mega Man in the Elite 8
Lost in 2004 to Mega Man in the Elite 8
Lost in 2005 to Mario in the Final 4

Solid Snake leading the males. That’s awesome

Soma
Game/Series Known From: Castlevania

Soma Cruz makes his first Contest appearance here.

OH GOD YES! The female half is finally over! At least for now it is. First match on the male side is Snake vs. Soma.

Alright, it isn’t much to start off with, but we’ll have to make due. Soma Cruz probably won’t even be near Alucard in strength, and even if he was, he’d still be no match for Snake. That’s not to say Soma will end up like crap though. He should do decent enough. Also, with Snake looking to be his strongest yet, this should be a good indicator of how well of a chance he stands in the later rounds.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Snake will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Snake: 78% - Soma: 22%



Ulti’s Analysis

It's about goddamn time we see the men in action. I don't even care that the first five matches are mortal locks. A female bracket is something we never need to see again.

As for this match, uh... easy blowout win for Snake despite Soma being awesome. What more can be said? The only real thing we'll see here is Soma's position in relation to Alucard's. I'd consider it a moral victory if Soma broke 30%, but I doubt he does. His two roles are both on handhelds.

Prediction: Snake with 71.17%



HM’s Analysis


We are finally finished with that horrifically dull female half – hallelujah! I have been waiting for this match for a long time…yes, I know it’s a 1v8 match that has absolutely no shot at being remotely interesting and will in all likelihood be another blowout – but it features at least one good character!

Solid Snake is coming out strong after this year’s E3, where a brand-new Metal Gear Solid 4 trailer was shown and he was announced as a character in the new Super Smash Bros. As a result, it appears that people have placed a ton of confidence in him to take the entire bracket, at least if the Top 50 is any indication. He should no doubt come out looking good with his match against the untested Soma Cruz.

If I had to wager, I would guess that Soma is actually a bit below Alucard’s ranking in 2005, which is a bit off thanks to the strange match between Snake/Sora. He should end up not being too bad, but clearly nowhere near enough to even make this match remotely interesting. Solid Snake is so taking out Mega Man.

Aitch Emm’s Bracket: Solid Snake

Aitch Emm’s Prediction: Solid Snake – 74% ; Soma Cruz – 26%

Aitch Emm’s Vote: Solid Snake



Yoblazer’s Analysis

Holy ****, men! Glorious men! Tough, burly, hairy, *glances at Soma* effeminate, soft-spoken, smooth-skinned men! Watch out, girls; the boys are back, and who better to kick off this beer drinking, chain smoking, ass kicking sausage fest than the #1 badass in all of gamedom, Solid Snake!
Master Moltar | Posted 9/27/2006 8:08:31 PM | message detail
As everyone here already knows, Snake is having one hell of an outstanding year. Much like Link and (the then unnamed) Twilight Princess did in 2004, Snake completely stole this year's E3, dropping our jaws with MGS4 and then rocking our faces with his surprise appearance in SSBB. He's high as a box-shaped kite and twice as deadly, and I think with this double dose of super hype and the recent release of MGS3: Subsistence, this could potentially be Snake's best contest yet.

His opponent, Some Cruz, is pretty weak stuff. He has starred in two handheld Castlevania titles - one for the GBA and one for the DS. Honestly, that's all I know about him, and for the sake of this match, that's all anyone really needs to know. However, we still need to get some sort of gauge on his strength to see how well Snake will do.

The best strength indicator we have for Soma is Simon Belmont, who made his lone contest appearance in 2002. According to pretty much any set of X-Stats you use, Snake is projected to beat him somewhere between 75-77%. Now, I'm going to go high here for two reasons:

1. I don't think Soma will be quite as strong as Belmont, who was the series' first hero and has a recognizable name in his own right.
2. I think Snake is coming into this contest very beloved by both the Sony and Nintendo faithful. Obviously, this will help, especially when it comes to squeezing out those last few percentage points from weaker foes.

Prove me right, Snake. Prove me right.

My prediction: Solid Snake def. Soma Cruz (80-20)



Lopen’s Analysis

I give Solid Snake the best shot at blowing out fodder of the weakest sort out of anybody. No anti-votes, pretty well known, Snake's got it all. He really should be the one going against Tingle, I think. He's kinda wasted here. Why? Because I want to see Snake shut down a fool 90-10, and instead he's gonna shut down a fool 75-25.

What's that? It's because I don't think Soma's the kind of fodder we want here. In fact, I completely blame Soma for Castlevania's beating of Halo that I didn't see coming. Yeap. Because I said to myself… if it's that much more popular than Symphony of the Night, where is the support coming from? The NES and SNES games? Yeah, they help, but that much? I think the meat of that extra ground is coming from the newer Gameboy games. Dawn of Sorrow, Aria of Sorrow, Dandelion Field of Sorrow. You know, those games that feature our little buddy Soma. So I think he'll have a decent fanbase out there, enough to avoid being destroyed. And they're recent, too! That's all to the good!

Lopen's prediction: Solid Snake with 75.78%



KH’s Analysis

lol x-stats history

SOLID SNAKE

"Find something to believe in. And find it for yourself. And when you do, pass it on to the future."

Summer 2002 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 9th Place [35.23%]

Summer 2003 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 8th Place [34.74%]

Summer 2004 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 12th Place [30.82%]

Summer 2005 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 9th Place [33.88%]

The legend. The man who makes the impossible possible. The greatest character to EVER exist, and that's before you get to the good stuff. It's Solid Snake, people! SNAAAAAKE! And not only is he making another deserved return to the GameFAQs Contests after his stellar Final Four appearance last year, but he perhaps has the most potential out of any contestant we've ever seen for the future. Metal Gear Solid 4 and, AMAZINGLY, SSBB??? Unbelievable, and you can bet the main man's going to be an absolute force when these hit --

-- wait, not until mid-to-late 2007? Uh...on second thought, there's no time like the present. Snake for 2k6 Champ! WOO SNAKE

SOMA CRUZ

"Having power doesn't mean you can abuse it. Haven't you learned your lesson?"

N/A
Master Moltar | Posted 9/27/2006 8:09:22 PM | message detail
But hey -- he made it, and should be happy -- he's in the male bracket. That means that he doesn't suck! WOO SOMA

Notable Releases Since Last Appearance

Solid Snake: Metal Gear Solid 3: Subsistence (PS2), Super Smash Brothers Brawl Trailer (Internet)
Soma Cruz: Castlevania: Aria of Sorrow (GBA), Castlevania: Dawn of Sorrow (DS)

Upcoming Releases

Solid Snake: Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots (PS3), Super Smash Brothers Brawl (WII)
Soma Cruz: N/A

Man, this is a great match. I mean, Snake's a one seed and the top of the male bracket. And Soma made into a contest, so that's cool too! There should be lots of votes, making up for the atrocity that's happening right now. The picture is decent, and for a match involving Snake that's generally considered a miracle nowadays. I'm liking all of this. Happiness for everyone!

...oh, uh, match commentary? What?

Karma Hunter's Vote: VOTE SNAKE

Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Solid Snake with 80.22%.

I'm going to suffer massively every single match thanks to overrating Snake. I don't particularly care.

Upset Potential: 0%

SNAKE IS INVINCIBLE




Guest’s Analysis - ad00

After 16 (not-so) exciting days of female bracket fun, most regulars are eagerly looking forward to the start of the second half of the bracket for excitement and upsets. Unfortunately for them, they likely won't find it in this particular match.

The male contest starts off by pitting a board and site favorite, Solid Snake, to contest newcomer and hero of the latest Castlevania outings, Soma Cruz, inheritor of Dracula's powers.

Solid Snake, of Metal Gear Solid fame, is an old hand of the contest, part of the noble nine, and essentially a lock for winning his division, and some say possibly taking the male side of the bracket this year. It is doubtful, but that possibility will start to be gauged by seeing just how well he does in this match.

While many expect this match to be a blowout from a strong character pitted against first-time fodder, I predict Soma to actually do respectfully in this. Castlevania has emerged as a bit of a dark horse in these contests. From Alucard's haphazard performances, to Castlevania beating Halo and nearly edging out Kingdom Hearts in the BSE contest, the series is a fan favorite, and draws very little animosity.

Focusing specifically on Soma, many had been clamoring for his inclusion in the contest since Aria of Sorrow came out, and doubly so when Dawn of Sorrow became one of the first must-have DS titles very early in its life cycle. The character is likeable, and as a hero drawing his power from the source he came to eradicate, is almost a kind of anti-hero, on par with Alucard.

But he is not Alucard, and the Sorrow games lack the nostalgia appeal of SotN. Oh, and he's facing Snake. However between the rallying to get him in, and the simple fact he is a strong lead from a popular series, he should hold his own against even Snake. Unfortunately for Soma, Snake shares his same strengths: great character in a loved series, drawing no anti-votes.

Oracle Prediction: Snake with 77.77%
Revised Prediction: Snake with 75%



Crew Consensus: We're all happy about the male bracket, and we all have Snake beating Soma easily. 70% range seems good.
charmander6000 | Posted 9/27/2006 8:23:53 PM | message detail
Match XVII: (1) Solid Snake vs. (8) Soma Cruz

Contest History

Solid Snake


Summer 2002
Defeated Squall Leonhart, 65.43% - 34.57%
Defeated Knuckles the Echidna, 60.71% - 39.29%
Defeated Aeris Gainsborough, 56.54% - 43.46%
Lost to Crono, 47.07% - 52.93%
Ranked: 9th

Summer 2003
Defeated Raiden, 82.88% - 17.12%
Defeated Knuckles the Echidna, 63.13% - 36.87%
Defeated Ryu, 57.26% - 42.74%
Lost to Mega Man, 46.50% - 53.50%
Ranked: 8th

Summer 2004
Defeated Tanner, 94.30% - 5.70%
Defeated Knuckles the Echidna, 59.54% - 40.46%
Defeated Frog, 51.39% - 48.61%
Lost to Mega Man, 42.81% - 57.19%
Ranked: 11th

Summer 2005
Defeated Manny Calavera, 84.09% - 15.91%
Defeated Zelda, 54.41% - 45.59%
Defeated Sora, 65.26% - 34.74%
Defeated Bowser, 50.59% - 40.41%
Lost to Mario, 42.79% - 57.21%
Ranked: 8th

Soma Cruz

No Previous Contest Matches

Analysis:

Solid Snake is the main character from the Metal Gear series. Solid Snake is one of the members of the Noble 9 and last year he kept the group together by barely avoiding the lose against Bowser. Soma Cruz is the main character of some of the newer Castlevania games. Many people aren’t expecting him to perform like Alucard, but they also think he won’t be total fodder.

Welcome to the male half of the bracket and after a boring female half many people are glad that the male side has come. With any start we always start off with a huge blowout. Last year Alucard lost to a character that lost to Snake and according to many people Soma is no Alucard, although I think he won’t be that much weaker than him. From what I see he’s the new face in Castlevania and as long as he keeps appearing in games he’ll grow in strength.

Solid Snake will get the win easily. He does have a chance at wining the male side of the bracket and even though Soma is untested every single match will be look at until the clash of the Noble 9s in round 4.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Solid Snake over Soma Cruz

charmander6000’s Prediction: Solid Snake wins, 70.23% - 29.77%

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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
ejm5446 | Posted 9/27/2006 8:28:04 PM | message detail
Wouldn't be surprised to see Snake reach 80%.
redrocket | Posted 9/27/2006 8:33:38 PM | message detail
So if Snake over-performs, is it due to Snake boosting, or Soma bombing?
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/27/2006 8:34:04 PM | message detail
Yep.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/27/2006 8:34:23 PM | message detail
A bit of both, though more Soma-bomb.
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CB5 Points: 14/15, Current Oracle placement: 20/156
Now playing: Xenosaga 3 (kinda)
trannyscience | Posted 9/27/2006 8:50:28 PM | message detail
hmm.. Lara with 86% of the brackets.
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xyzzy
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/27/2006 8:51:00 PM | message detail
I'd say close to 90%
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CB5 Points: 14/15, Current Oracle placement: 20/156
Now playing: Xenosaga 3 (kinda)
Draco1214 | Posted 9/27/2006 8:51:28 PM | message detail
If this match has shown anything, it's that Alyx Vance is extremely obscure. Lara's 2 seed can't hurt either.

Lara Croft with 95% of the brackets.
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Character Battle V Score - 16/16 points
Current Prediction - Solid Snake vs. Soma Cruz
XxSoulxX | Posted 9/27/2006 8:54:42 PM | message detail
PW vs King of all Cosmos

KoaC.
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Why the hell did I bet against a character as deep, awesome and badass as Lara Croft, instead favouring a character from something as lame as HL2? Forgive me, XIII.
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/27/2006 8:55:28 PM | message detail
KoaC
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caps
Janus5000 | Posted 9/27/2006 8:57:15 PM | message detail
The King crushes Objection.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
Who Cares? | Posted 9/27/2006 8:59:58 PM | message detail
http://www.signsbyyou.com/images/decals/140c/TRADES1/cd/TOV10418.gif

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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Lara Croft (October 21st) One down, two to go!
*Just 12 days until Tales of the Abyss*
trannyscience | Posted 9/27/2006 9:00:45 PM | message detail
wow, good show here.
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xyzzy
MasterMoltar | Posted 9/27/2006 9:01:46 PM | message detail
Massive Snake board vote FTW

And Lara with 92...something, like I care.
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It's MOOOOOOLLLLLTTTAAAARRRR!!!!
Janus5000 | Posted 9/27/2006 9:01:46 PM | message detail
Solid Snake 83.44% 257
Soma Cruz 16.56% 51
TOTAL VOTES 308

Man, I always forget how much you guys love your Snake. >_>

Congrats to Draco for making the top 50.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/27/2006 9:02:29 PM | message detail
Dip a bit, Snake! Finish with exactly 80%!
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
trannyscience | Posted 9/27/2006 9:03:42 PM | message detail
I'd be surprised if he stayed this high. if I had to guess.. maybe 79%?
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xyzzy
The_Ocelot | Posted 9/27/2006 9:04:16 PM | message detail
How many perfects fell?
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Current Character Battle 5 Score 15/16 Today's Pick: Solid Snake Next Pick: Squall Incorrect Picks: Celes
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/27/2006 9:04:56 PM | message detail
79% would be perfect. Also, Soma has to do all of his work during the dead hours, since this is one of those matches where Metal Gear should win the day vote easily.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006