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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 370

XIII_rocks | Posted 9/27/2006 8:24:53 AM | message detail
and that HL2 likely brought more new fans to the series than Tomb Raider's latest game did

Attempt to back this up. I dare you.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/27/2006 8:27:07 AM | message detail
I'm not saying Alyx is a bad character, she definitely isn't, but the odds of any npc from a game that isn't an antaganist holding any semblence of strength is slim to none. Just ask Cortana.

I doubt Alyx is that weak. I'd take her over Yuri or MAYBE Laharl. She's still very much fodder, but she's not Tanner or Yuri-esque.

-=-

Oh, LOL @ people presuming Lara staying constant from 2004. Antivotes dying down + Legend = Significantly stronger.
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dragoontheguy | Posted 9/27/2006 8:30:22 AM | message detail
Attempt to back this up. I dare you.

...I honestly don't see how what he said is wrong. HL2 experienced extreme commercial success, and was ported to xbox which helped create a fanbase for it in the console market. ...What did the newest tomb-raider do to increase its fanbase? Anything?
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/27/2006 8:34:42 AM | message detail
It had TV Advertising (over here, anyway), was the big game of the month when it was released, had a multi-console launch (soon to be released on GC and DS, as well), appealed to the casual market as well as the hardcore fans with the revamped and simple style.

In terms of bringing in new fans, Legend likely trumped HL2 all-ends up. On a worldwide scale, anyway.
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dragoontheguy | Posted 9/27/2006 8:38:13 AM | message detail
It had TV Advertising (over here, anyway), was the big game of the month when it was released, had a multi-console launch (soon to be released on GC and DS, as well), appealed to the casual market as well as the hardcore fans with the revamped and simple style.

How is being multi platform plus having good advertising different then what tomb raider has usually done? It's always been a well known series.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/27/2006 9:06:42 AM | message detail
(I stand corrected. Already out on GC and DS)

The main games were ALWAYS PS1 exclusives. AoD was a PS2 exclusive. Legend is now on all current and next-gen consoles, including handhelds. That's a new market right there.

I can't remember another TR game getting TV advertising, ever. >_>
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/27/2006 9:29:23 AM | message detail
Nobody is Tanner-esque. Let's just clear that up. He's in a league of suck all his own.

At the 12:25 mark, this match has 46915 votes. To compare with other matches at the same time:

Ada/Jade - 47220
Terra/Kerrigan - 48280
Joanna/Cortana - 48002
Chun-Li/Kasumi - 50229

Looks like we've got a new contender for bottom of the barrel!
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/27/2006 9:30:40 AM | message detail
Oh, LOL @ people presuming Lara staying constant from 2004. Antivotes dying down + Legend = Significantly stronger.

She'll be stronger than in 2k4 because 2k4 was an anomaly for her, just like it was for Sam Fisher.

The main games were ALWAYS PS1 exclusives. AoD was a PS2 exclusive. Legend is now on all current and next-gen consoles, including handhelds. That's a new market right there.

Uh, it sold like crap on all the non-PS2 consoles anyway, so how does that matter? Its combined sales across all consoles are barely better than AoD's, and the other four Tomb Raider games completely crush it. I doubt TRL had more effect than Viewtiful Joe 2, let alone Half-Life 2.

I can't remember another TR game getting TV advertising, ever. >_>

And I never saw any advertising for TRL on TV either. lol anecdotal evidence.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Haste_2 | Posted 9/27/2006 10:10:23 AM | message detail
Meh, I'm thinking Lara gets in the high 30's or low 40's against Chun Li next round.

On another note, I'm very curious to see how Soma Cruz does tomorrow. I think being above the fodder line is a bit of a stretch, but maybe he can surprise people a bit. He should be stronger than Simon Belmont ever was, though I could easily be wrong there, due to Soma's games being handheld.

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THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/27/2006 10:13:11 AM | message detail
If Soma is equal to 2002 Simon (tentative ground, but it's just a rough estimate anyway), he will get 23.51% on Solid Snake. If Soma is at exactly 20% on BL, he'll get 27.05% on Solid Snake.

Basically, if Soma breaks 30%, that should be considered an achievement for him.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Samurai7 | Posted 9/27/2006 10:15:08 AM | message detail
Low 20s sounds right for Soma to me >.>
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It's a sad fact that you had to derail this topic because you are afraid of the power of the PS3 -- cade
H__RR____H | Posted 9/27/2006 10:43:56 AM | message detail
Attempt to back this up. I dare you.

1) Hold your horses -- there's a reason I said "likely", and that's because I don't know it for fact. Neither do you.

2) I think the GameFAQs database had fifteen or sixteen different Tomb Raider games that have spread across various systems, not to mention that Lara is a not-so-current icon who had popular movies. So, needless to say, it's going to be harder for her to gain in strength from a new release; TRL will help, yes, I'm not questioning that, but I'm asking about how many new fans it will bring (especially HERE). Meanwhile, HL2 is Gordon's first game in about seven years (I think that's right?) and second game ever, and HL2 has been raved about from all directions -- moreso than TRL -- and considering the success it's shown to have here BEFORE it was ported to the Xbox (made it into the second GotY poll in 2k4 with other massive hits, Gordon jumped big in strength last year) and that Alyx even made this contest, heh...

...at best, it's arguable, but that's if you're talking about the gaming industry in general; if you narrow it down to here, I feel safe thinking HL2 soundly whips TRL's ass in bringing new fans to their series.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
SonicRaptor | Posted 9/27/2006 11:19:11 AM | message detail
Nobody is Tanner-esque. Let's just clear that up. He's in a league of suck all his own.

Exactly, it wasn't a case of hate against him. It was more of a "who the hell is Tanner?" kind of deal, nobody knew who he was. The fact he was just a guy in a suit didn't help him stand out either.

I believe that Tingle is the one that will be at the bottom of the X-Stats this contest.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
Big Bob | Posted 9/27/2006 11:23:55 AM | message detail
I still stand by Daisy.
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My bracket is so screwed.
greatone10 | Posted 9/27/2006 11:25:15 AM | message detail
Tanner also had the horrible distinction of being a PS1 era action character facing Solid Snake. Whatever insignificant fanbase he had on this site was not going to vote for him over Snake.
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Haste_2 | Posted 9/27/2006 11:31:28 AM | message detail
Tingle will be down there, I'm sure, but that would require around 15% against Sora to be underneath Jade and Alyx, probably, and like 13% to be below Daisy. I suppose it's -possible-, but unlikely. I do say, however, that Tingle will be beyond worthless, and will contradict all theories of LoZ's strength. Tingle is ugly beyond belief, has a disturbing name, very small role, only gives burdons on Link, etc. Epona is a powerhouse compared to Tingle, I assure you.

The fact he was just a guy in a suit didn't help him stand out either.

Heh, if he had an Anime design, Tanner probably would've done twice as well.

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H__RR____H | Posted 9/27/2006 12:02:31 PM | message detail
Daisy and Carmen are lookin' to be the fore-runners in this race, and I'm guessing Daisy.



One thing I'd keep in mind about Tingle, on top of what Haste said, is that he's also from arguably the two least-liked LoZ games -- Majora's Mask and Wind Waker. I dunno if he's made any handhelds or not, but considering he's from both the two newest and the two least-liked LoZ games...on top of the rest of the things Haste said, and he's gonna look bad.

He'll still do better than lots of characters though, thanks to the female side.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/27/2006 12:09:23 PM | message detail
I hope Tingle gets crushed and anti-voted like crazy. He really pisses me off in Four Swords Adventures.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/27/2006 12:20:30 PM | message detail
Daisy and Carmen are lookin' to be the fore-runners in this race, and I'm guessing Daisy.

I dunno. Alyx looks really bad right now.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Kid Radd | Posted 9/27/2006 12:23:28 PM | message detail
SO SOWL HOW'S THAT PICK WORKING OUT FOR YOU, LOL WATE.

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Explicit Content
darn you cjay
Kid Radd | Posted 9/27/2006 12:26:37 PM | message detail
Roll would overperform on Kasumi for the exact same reason Thunder Thighs is.

That's one of the stupider things I've seen posted in a CS&D topic.

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Explicit Content
darn you cjay
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/27/2006 12:32:18 PM | message detail
And finally, the female bracket is over. 16 long days with only 1 match that was actually debatable.

*roots for Soma to do well*

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Z1mZum won the Guru Contest. I picked Pokemon over Metroid, GTA over Warcraft, Halo over CV, Street Fighter over RE, and FF over Zelda.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/27/2006 12:34:45 PM | message detail
Well, Lara's going up. Good for her.

Yay male bracket! Snake/Soma alone will be more exciting than the whole female half combined!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Lara vs. Alyx - Bracket: Lara - Vote: Lara (14/15)
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/27/2006 12:46:02 PM | message detail
Well, duh. It's Solid Snake.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
MegaReincarnate | Posted 9/27/2006 12:51:48 PM | message detail
The main reason the female half sucked:

I still have a perfect bracket. If some ****-up like me can manage to remain perfect in round 1, you know it's bad.

At least Round 1 has some matches I'm going to sweat over, like Phoenix Wright/Gordon Freeman and Vincent/The Dorf.
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Hispanics 4 | Whites 5
Asians 5 | Blacks 4
Draco1214 | Posted 9/27/2006 12:58:08 PM | message detail
For the record, Gordon Freeman has a horrendous day vote. I expect Lara Croft to begin pummeling Alyx worse now, possibly pushing 78-80%. That last update confirms it for me.
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Character Battle V Score - 15/15 points
Current Prediction - Lara Croft vs. Alyx Vance
therealmnm | Posted 9/27/2006 1:22:32 PM | message detail
He should be stronger than Simon Belmont ever was, though I could easily be wrong there, due to Soma's games being handheld.

Not if we're talking Simon Belmont of the early 90s!!! Only video game icons made it to cartoon shows!
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Vote for Soma Cruz
Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
H__RR____H | Posted 9/27/2006 1:27:17 PM | message detail
omg guys like dont forget konamisff this is konamifaqs aftrll naked snake shoold get 94$ letz not forget im super serioul
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
therealmnm | Posted 9/27/2006 1:28:05 PM | message detail
Oh, and I don't want to hear one more word about Alyx Vance. None. Sara Kerrigan, who is very fodderific herself, got 21% on Vincent Valentine. Alyx is getting 23% on Lara Croft.
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Vote for Soma Cruz
Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
Draco1214 | Posted 9/27/2006 1:29:19 PM | message detail
Actually, if Lara finishes with 79-80% and Lara 2k4 = Lara 2k6, Alyx Vance is projected to struggle with Mr. Driller
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Character Battle V Score - 15/15 points
Current Prediction - Lara Croft vs. Alyx Vance
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/27/2006 1:30:03 PM | message detail
Wow, did we actually find a THIRD character Serious Sam could beat?
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Haste_2 | Posted 9/27/2006 1:30:14 PM | message detail
Extra piece of evidence that Zero 2K5's natural x-stat is legit:

Vercetti fell between 2K3 and 2K5...what if Vercetti had his 2K5 strength in 2K4? The reason I'm questioning this is that Vercetti underperformed against Max Payne. Of course, that would also mean rSFF against Mega Man, and the right amount of it to make Zero's and Vercetti's x-stat about the same as the previous year, which seems like too much of a coincidence, so whatever.

I think I'd still side with Zero underperforming and all that still, but I could take either way, especially since 2K5 was a new year and all, anyway. We don't even know how Zero (or Luigi/Kirby) may have changed this year, anyway.

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Heroic Mario | Posted 9/27/2006 1:31:12 PM | message detail
I do say, however, that Tingle will be beyond worthless, and will contradict all theories of LoZ's strength.

Tingle isn't going to be a powerhouse, but he is goign to middle of the road fodder, not bottom of the barrel. Sora isn't going to even break 75% against him.

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cyko | Posted 9/27/2006 1:35:26 PM | message detail
okay, so for the male bracket, we seem to have 11 matches that everyone is unanimous on:

Snake over Soma
Squall over Tidus
Dante over Hayabusa
Sora over Tingle
Ryu over Kratos
Megaman over Axel
Sonic over CATS
Kirby over Prince
Crono over Captain Falcon
Bowser over Leon
Auron over Alucard


do you think that any of these matches have even a remote chance of being an upset?

also, in what order are you confident about the five debated matches:

******** very confident ********

1. Master Chief over Sub-Zero
2. Vincent over Ganondorf
3. Gordon over Phoenix
4. Zero over Luigi
5. Yoshi over Riku

******** very nervous ********



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Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
trannyscience | Posted 9/27/2006 1:36:48 PM | message detail
5. Yoshi over Riku
4. Zero over Luigi
2. Vincent over Ganondorf
3. Gordon over Phoenix
1. Master Chief over Sub-Zero
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xyzzy
therealmnm | Posted 9/27/2006 1:37:29 PM | message detail
I just don't see why Zero would be getting weaker from 2k3 to 2k5 when mostly all the other "classic" characters (Nintendo, Sonic crew, Mega Man, etc.) seem to be getting at least a bit stronger with the voter shift since 2k3. Unless he was simply overrated against Sonic? But I don't see him losing popularity when he has gotten a handheld fanbase as well since 2k3...
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Vote for Soma Cruz
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/27/2006 1:38:18 PM | message detail
Sub-Zero over MC has quite a lot of potential, especially if the date that match happens is October 11th, release date of MK Armageddon.

>_>
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
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Heroic Mario | Posted 9/27/2006 1:39:31 PM | message detail
Most confident to least confident...

1.) Ganon over Ganon
2.) Yoshi over Riku
3.) Master Chief over Sub-Zero
4.) Gordon Freeman over Phoenix Wright
5.) Zero over Luigi


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"Master using it and you can have this."
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trannyscience | Posted 9/27/2006 1:39:32 PM | message detail
it happens about four days after the release.
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xyzzy
trannyscience | Posted 9/27/2006 1:39:45 PM | message detail
1.) Ganon over Ganon

hot damn!
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xyzzy
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/27/2006 1:40:28 PM | message detail
Master Chief laughs at another craptacular Mortal Kombat release. He has the newly announced Halo Wars RTS. That's right, folks, prepare for rallying courtesy of HALO.NET!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/27/2006 1:40:48 PM | message detail
Eh, I'm starting to worry about Vincent > Ganondorf now.
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Chun Li vs. Kasumi / Bracket: Chun Li / Vote: Chun Li (13/14)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Lara Croft / Vote: Lara Croft
longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/27/2006 1:40:59 PM | message detail
it happens about four days after the release.

Ooh, thats exciting. Hopefully it'll be better then Deception and all the rest of the new stuff and get oldschool MKers back into the franchise.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
wavedash101 | Posted 9/27/2006 1:41:30 PM | message detail
HM=Mission Success
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Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/27/2006 1:41:36 PM | message detail
I got Ganon on the brain, Tran Man!


(Note: For the slower among us, that is supposed to be "Ganon over Vincent"!)

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"Master using it and you can have this."
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therealmnm | Posted 9/27/2006 1:41:45 PM | message detail
Absolutely no chance for any of those 11 matches to be an upset. Of course, there may be some characters who can be a bit stronger than anticipated in those matchups (Hayabusa, Captain Falcon, Prince of Persia), but none of them actually have a chance of beating their opponents.

also, in what order are you confident about the five debated matches:

******** very confident ********

Yoshi over Riku
Gordon over Phoenix
Zero over Luigi
Vincent over Ganondorf (eh? I have Ganondorf over Vincent..., but it would go here)
Master Chief over Sub-Zero

******** very nervous ********
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Vote for Soma Cruz
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Draco1214 | Posted 9/27/2006 1:42:18 PM | message detail
Most confident to least confident:

1) Master Chief over Sub-Zero
2) Yoshi over Riku
3) Zero over Luigi
4) Vincent Valentine over Ganondorf
5) Phoenix Wright over Gordon Freeman
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Character Battle V Score - 15/15 points
Current Prediction - Lara Croft vs. Alyx Vance
trannyscience | Posted 9/27/2006 1:42:37 PM | message detail
you know, for all the debate Vincent vs. Ganon has gotten, to 95% of us it's a one-point match and that's it. we're not going to be losing any more points on it unless something crazy happens. it's worth exactly as much as Joanna/Cortana.
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xyzzy
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/27/2006 1:43:21 PM | message detail
Oh, no, this is a multi-point match. Ganon is taking out Sonic -- just you wait and see!

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longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/27/2006 1:43:41 PM | message detail
But the point is no one cared about Cortana/Joanna with the exception of Moltar cause hes a big Perfect Dark fan. Now Vincent/Ganon, here we got two contest hosses dukin it out.
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