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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 370

Janus5000 | Posted 9/26/2006 9:19:25 PM | message detail
Good news for Alyx - if she finishes with 25% based on 2k4 Lara, she's above unadjusted Guybrush!
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
XxSoulxX | Posted 9/26/2006 9:21:18 PM | message detail
And she's stabilizing.

;-; bye perfect! bye zero! Another year without landing on the top 50...
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
RIP Eddie Guerrero. 1967-2005. Deputy Chief!
trannyscience | Posted 9/26/2006 9:22:17 PM | message detail
what's the highest something's stabilized at and still lost? 55/45?
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/26/2006 9:23:46 PM | message detail
I would say around 60-40 (Frog/MC), but I always forget that damn thing actually won the match. =/
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Commit it to memory.
Lopen | Posted 9/26/2006 9:23:57 PM | message detail
What do you mean by "stablilized"? After the board vote?

MC/Frog was 60-40 after the board vote wore off.

Well, MC didn't win that... but he very well could've!!
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trannyscience | Posted 9/26/2006 9:27:32 PM | message detail
yeah. the two that come to mind for me are Knuckles/Magus and GTA/WC. DK/MC might have had something big as well.
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/26/2006 9:31:31 PM | message detail
GTA/WC had a big board vote, but by the end of the first hour it was 51-49 at best. Knux/Magus had Magus with over 54% by the end of those first few hours before he started to really drop off. MC/DK is probably the best one as DK had 54% after the first 7 hours, after which he just more or less TANKED.
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Commit it to memory.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/26/2006 9:32:18 PM | message detail
Alyx is gettin' decimated by somebody who should never be decimating in a GameFAQs contest.


Gordon's still gonna embarrass Phoenix Wright though.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
charmander6000 | Posted 9/26/2006 9:34:20 PM | message detail
Donkey Kong vs. Duck Hunt had DK with 56%, sure DK still won, but give DH a little more time then it would've won.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
charmander6000 | Posted 9/26/2006 9:35:50 PM | message detail
Looks like Lara is gaining percent.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Yesmar | Posted 9/26/2006 9:35:51 PM | message detail
Donkey Kong had 56% 7 hours into its match with Duck Hunt, although the percentage started dropping off soon after, and the comeback proper started 10 and a half hours in.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/26/2006 9:36:59 PM | message detail
Another reason I hate the female bracket -- it's the reason we have no MOTHER****ING DONKEY KONG. Sure he was pathetic, but he always ended up in the most entertaining matches. I'll take that over seeing Clinkeroth decimate fodder -- or in the case of this contest, fodder decimate fodder. =(
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Commit it to memory.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/26/2006 9:39:48 PM | message detail
And she's stabilizing.

;-; bye perfect! bye zero! Another year without landing on the top 50...


.. You actually thought Alyx had a chance? Come on.


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Chun Li vs. Kasumi / Bracket: Chun Li / Vote: Chun Li (13/14)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Lara Croft / Vote: Lara Croft
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/26/2006 9:41:38 PM | message detail
All of the male snubs were some of the most entertaining contestants.

Frog, Magus, Knuckles, DK. They all had interesting matches.

TuRtLe
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I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Yesmar | Posted 9/26/2006 9:41:41 PM | message detail
Doh! Beaten by a minute!

Looking at Vote Updates from 2004 is kind of cool though.

Super Mario RPG was an absolute beast with the day vote. Street Fighter II was actually winning until the morning vote came in and took SMRPG to 56%.

Tetris also tanked the day vote against Galaga. It had 84% initially but dropped all the way down to 78% with the day vote. Pretty bad considering how high the percentages were.

Random question: Does anyone know when the polls began to start at 3:00 AM?
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/26/2006 9:42:06 PM | message detail
And Shadow. Don't forget about him!

TuRtLe
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I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/26/2006 9:43:38 PM | message detail
Just as much, if not more failure than MC 2k5. Vincent and the Devil Division as a whole may not be overrated, but Magus sure as hell is.

WTF? You think Magus 2k5 is overrated? I suppose it's possible, as he's a little more above Tidus than maybe he should be, but it's still no more than ~1.5%, and Tidus certainly had more reason to fall than Magus did.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 9/26/2006 9:44:32 PM | message detail
The male bracket for R1 should be good. We have PW/Gordon, Ganon/Vincent and Luigi/Zero. And matches like Squall/Tidus and Auron/Alucard are way more interesting than Joanna/Cortana and Ada/Jade. But it's going to suck again once we get back to the females. We get Jill/Peach for Round 2 and that's it.

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Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/26/2006 9:46:26 PM | message detail
Unless Lara absolutely crushes Alyx with the day vote, my Oracle pick of 72 isn't looking too bad for today. Following my trend from the BSE contest, my oracle performances vary based one what division I'm in. I tanked with the Limit division, and did pretty good with the Aeon.

TuRtLe
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I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/26/2006 9:48:19 PM | message detail
At least female R2 isn't nearly as bad as the round 1. Although "nailbiters" like Tifa/Boss or Yuna/Joanna will be pretty damn dry.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/26/2006 9:55:53 PM | message detail
Round 2 of the female half will be much better than round 1. There may not be any nailbiter matches, but we've at least weeded out most of the unknown crap like Jade and Alyx.

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Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 9/26/2006 9:57:33 PM | message detail
Round 2 of the female half will be much better than round 1.


That isn't saying a whole lot. Will it be better than R1 females? Sure. I'm still not looking forward to it.


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Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden
transience | Posted 9/26/2006 10:12:20 PM | message detail
but at least we can get some reads on people. what did Chun Li / Kasumi tell us? not much, but Chun Li / Lara will tell us a lot more. we can look at Zelda vs. Terra to see how Zelda's looking. Samus gets a real opponent for the first time since the Mario match. Jill vs. Peach has some potential. I could go on.

Joanna vs. Cortana, on the other hand, tells us nothing. same with this match.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
Dark115 | Posted 9/26/2006 10:14:36 PM | message detail
Another boring match :(
Stupid female bracket
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WiggumFan267 | Posted 9/26/2006 10:20:30 PM | message detail
Sorry to whore out:

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30786881

=P


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UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/26/2006 11:16:07 PM | message detail
Bracket voting and Tails are really the only things making me worry about having Vincent over Ganon. You just KNOW that casuals are backing Zelda in their brackets.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
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greatone10 | Posted 9/26/2006 11:19:15 PM | message detail
While I would certainly expect Ganon to be the bracket favorite, there are those casuals out there who look at every GameFAQs contest and say OMG FINAEL FONTASY SEFEN WIINS EVRTYHING!, so Vincent will have his support as well.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest.
transience | Posted 9/26/2006 11:21:19 PM | message detail
yeah, that whole 12% support he had to win his division!

vs. Ganon probably having equal support to Samus. darn you villain contest
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/27/2006 12:31:03 AM | message detail
Y halo thar, awesome.

What's more, I guarantee Lara would be doing better with her Legend art.
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transience | Posted 9/27/2006 2:12:52 AM | message detail
wow, this is 1000 votes behind Ada/Jade despite someone as recognizable as Lara. Alyx looks to be fodder of the worst kind.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 9/27/2006 2:29:22 AM | message detail
"wow, this is 1000 votes behind Ada/Jade despite someone as recognizable as Lara. Alyx looks to be fodder of the worst kind."


Shes from Half Life ona site that hardly cares at all about computer games. Shes most likely near the same strength as Freeman. Why would anyone think shed be so much stronger anyway?

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Can't think of a good sig.
transience | Posted 9/27/2006 2:31:10 AM | message detail
Gordon Freeman (2005c) VS Lara Croft (2004c)

Gordon Freeman has a strength of 22.78.
Lara Croft has a strength of 14.91.

Gordon Freeman wins with 67.27% of the vote!
A win of 27,368 with 79,218 total votes cast.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 9/27/2006 2:33:51 AM | message detail
It would be hilarious if Lara has actually dropped since her last match, Chun Li crushes her with about the same percentage as she did Kasumi, and Alyx really is that weak.

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Can't think of a good sig.
transience | Posted 9/27/2006 2:36:28 AM | message detail
well, Alyx is already at about 7-8% assuming a constant Lara Croft, who may or may not be overrated thanks to Samus. I realize Alyx is weak, but I don't think she's Tanner weak.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 9/27/2006 2:40:58 AM | message detail
Hmm. I dont really follow the X Stats that closely. How does Kasumi with her old value compare to the latest value (not this match) for Lara?

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Can't think of a good sig.
transience | Posted 9/27/2006 3:01:06 AM | message detail
Lara Croft (2004c) VS Kasumi (2002c)

Lara Croft has a strength of 14.91.
Kasumi has a strength of 22.82.

Kasumi wins with 67.33% of the vote!
A win of 23,198 with 66,925 total votes cast.

this might just be the most unreliable, useless extrapolation ever.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
Who Cares? | Posted 9/27/2006 4:40:25 AM | message detail
Wow, even behind Ada/Jade in votes...I dunno if that says more about Alyx's obscurity or Lara's popularity (or lack thereof) Yeah, the contest as a whole gets better after this match.

Hmm, and it just occurred to me, some of the 'excitement' for this half of the bracket may have been hurt by females that broke into the contest last year. I think this half would've have looked a bit more intriguing if this was the first contest for Tifa, Rikku, Chun-Li, Terra, Kerrigan, and Jo Dark. (Imagines how severely overhyped Kerrigan would've been in this field! XD)
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: Kasumi's been Kikoushou'D! Awaiting next victim!
*Just 13 days until Tales of the Abyss*
transience | Posted 9/27/2006 4:42:36 AM | message detail
I've been thinking that for months.. Terra/Kerrigan would have been a debate and a half had they not been in last year. Rikku wouldn't be the lock that we know her to be either since most people doubted her strength.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/27/2006 5:26:39 AM | message detail
My second favorite game is a PC FPS, and I wouldn't have known who Alyx was if she wasn't in this board's NCAA tournament. <_<.

Heh, same here. That's kind of where I got any indication that she would be so pathetic.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
PlatinumSmurf | Posted 9/27/2006 6:42:25 AM | message detail
If you're going to use x-stats to match characters off, it makes sense to use the years that they were both in it..

Lara wins all 3 times, SHOCK AND HORROR.

(2002)

Lara Croft 74.06% 58,746
Gordon Freeman 25.94% 20,577
TOTAL VOTES 79,323

(2003)

Lara Croft 65.30% 51,780
Gordon Freeman 34.70% 27,521
TOTAL VOTES 79,301

(2004)

Lara Croft 51.81% 41,069
Gordon Freeman 48.19% 38,198
TOTAL VOTES 79,267
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Smurf
The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism
Samurai7 | Posted 9/27/2006 6:43:48 AM | message detail
You're right smurf. It makes sense to ignore any recent boosts a character might have had.
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It's a sad fact that you had to derail this topic because you are afraid of the power of the PS3 -- cade
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/27/2006 7:31:32 AM | message detail
That's quite the spectacular downward trend on Lara's part, Smurf.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/27/2006 7:39:49 AM | message detail
Yeah, and considering Lara didn't make it in the contest last year while Gordon has his most impressive performance yet, and now HL2 has been ported to the Xbox, and that HL2 likely brought more new fans to the series than Tomb Raider's latest game did, and that Gordon has more reason to boost from it since he has significantly less games...

...just saying.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
PlatinumSmurf | Posted 9/27/2006 7:46:04 AM | message detail
That's opinion. I'd say that Half Life 2 catered to the existing audience while Legend, being the first good Tomb Raider this decade would have attracted a new audience.

Lara's downward spiral was caused because of AoD. A game that has been put behind people at this stage. There's no reason whatsoever that with Legend behind her, Lara can't return to her 2002 high.

The fact that Lara is tripling someone here is significant, because it shows that the number of anti-votes aganist her is no longer huge. Hated characters don't triple anyone.

You're insane if you believe that Gordon could double Lara.
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Smurf
The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/27/2006 7:54:35 AM | message detail
The fact that Lara is tripling someone here is significant, because it shows that the number of anti-votes aganist her is no longer huge. Hated characters don't triple anyone.

Master Chief vs. Crash, Cloud vs. CATS/Vyse/etc., Mario/Donkey Kong, and many other matches disagree with you. Not to mention that Lara got a high percentage on Chop Chop Master Onion, despite this supposed anti-vote brigade.

That's opinion. I'd say that Half Life 2 catered to the existing audience while Legend, being the first good Tomb Raider this decade would have attracted a new audience.

Uh, the last good Tomb Raider game came out 1 year before HL2, and a large part of the argument for HL2 helping Gordon is that people who play it actually know Gordon's name. Lara never had that problem.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
charmander6000 | Posted 9/27/2006 8:07:21 AM | message detail
Master Chief vs. Crash, Cloud vs. CATS/Vyse/etc., Mario/Donkey Kong, and many other matches disagree with you. Not to mention that Lara got a high percentage on Chop Chop Master Onion, despite this supposed anti-vote brigade.

Cloud and Mario aren't as hated in the same terms as Lara. Crash is also very hated so they kind of cancelled each other. Lara let Chop Chop break 30% on her and looking at the x-stats, it has PaRappa only winning with 52.5% of the vote against Chop Chop.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
dragoontheguy | Posted 9/27/2006 8:20:32 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
dragoontheguy | Posted 9/27/2006 8:21:51 AM | message detail
Honestly, is anyone actually surprised to see how weak a npc from half-life is?

I'm not saying Alyx is a bad character, she definitely isn't, but the odds of any npc from a game that isn't an antaganist holding any semblence of strength is slim to none. Just ask Cortana.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
KingBartz | Posted 9/27/2006 8:23:28 AM | message detail
poor cortana...
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SC2K6: 14/15 Today's pick: Lara Croft
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/27/2006 8:23:45 AM | message detail
Anybody who even RENTED Legend would probably not be inclined to anti-vote Lara anymore.

The argument for Squall or Raiden hate dying down has been thrown around a ton recently; why can't it apply to Lara?

This is impressive whatever way you look at it. I'm now even more confident in Lara at least evading the doubling, possibly getting 35%, on Chun-Li.
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