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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 369

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/25/2006 10:47:07 PM | message detail
And since this is at 400, would you guys mind if I made the next stats topic?


TuRtLe
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I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Janus5000 | Posted 9/25/2006 10:49:31 PM | message detail
MG/SC was rSFF of the worst degree.

And Ulti already made 370.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/25/2006 10:50:23 PM | message detail
Mortal Kombat definitely outdoes Soul Calibur, no question. You'll get through three or four Mortal Kombat characters before you even think about getting to the strongest SC character, and MK definitely beats SC head-to-head...it's just that the board's nominations are so absurd that you'd never know it.

The tiering goes SF > MK > SC > DoA >= Tekken...Jin being the 'main' of Tekken probably gives him the edge on Kasumi strength-wise, but Kasumi was never the most popular character from her game anyway (what's up, Hayabusa).
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Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/25/2006 10:52:38 PM | message detail
But Chun-Li's only projected to get 63% on Jin as is, so I'm feeling pretty good about this Kasumi match.
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Commit it to memory.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/25/2006 11:52:26 PM | message detail
Nice to see one of my nominations doing well instead of costing me a point (Thanks Claire and Celes)...


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Supporter of Alucard.
transience | Posted 9/26/2006 3:07:20 AM | message detail
Chun Li's percentage is dropping pretty hard right now, she's looking to go under 70% with Street Fighter's legendary morning vote. that last update was only 64%, though it's probably just a fluke because there's so few votes coming in right now.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/26/2006 5:40:09 AM | message detail
Way to go, Thunder Thighs! Awesome performance here!

I'm calling a bit of overperformance on Chun-Li's part here though. Not necessarily a great one, but I can't imagine Kasumi dropping from 38% on Aeris to 30% on Chun-Li. That's a huge drop.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Who Cares? | Posted 9/26/2006 5:57:57 AM | message detail
I agree, there's gotta be some degree of genre SFF here. Really, of all the characters that's been sitting on the sidelines since 2k2, Kasumi has the least amount of reasons to take a major dive in the stats. Still, GO CHUNNY! :)
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: Currently giving Kasumi a Kikoushou to the face!
*Just 14 days until Tales of the Abyss*
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/26/2006 6:44:30 AM | message detail
At the moment, Kasumi is tied with Agent 47 with 15.04% on BL. That means her 2002 version wins with nearly 67% here.

At the 9:40 mark, this match has 38549 votes. To compare with other matches at the same time:

Samus/Nidoran F - 41373
Kairi/Claire - 39803
Jill/Sheena - 40896
Peach/Daisy - 39754

Hmmm...This match is looking good to reach 110,000.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/26/2006 7:31:56 AM | message detail
Why is it so hard to believe that Kasumi has dropped significantly since 2k2? Hell, even in 2k3 she'd have gotten nowhere near that same value on Aeris.

Times change, and timeless characters like Mario and Crono are the only ones who don't drop.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/26/2006 7:34:10 AM | message detail
Nobody's denying a drop, but that's a HUGE drop.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/26/2006 7:41:02 AM | message detail
So?

I have a feeling that Kasumi's and Claire's drops will be similar once Kairi gets exposed next round.

It's been 4 years since they last made an appearance and the vote-base has expanded and changed completely.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/26/2006 7:45:04 AM | message detail
Claire's drop could look bad because of a Rikku overperformance, too, you know.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Samurai7 | Posted 9/26/2006 7:46:54 AM | message detail
Even still, RE characters age poorly. As will forgetable fighting game characters... IE everything but SF
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It's a sad fact that you had to derail this topic because you are afraid of the power of the PS3 -- cade
Who Cares? | Posted 9/26/2006 7:49:36 AM | message detail
Considering Kasumi's had DoA3, Ultimate, the Volleyball game, DoA4 as a launch title for the 360, and has decent popularity with the casuals, she shouldn't really be significantly less popular now than she was then.
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: Currently giving Kasumi a Kikoushou to the face!
*Just 14 days until Tales of the Abyss*
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/26/2006 8:05:04 AM | message detail
Whoa, good performance by Chun-li. But Lara will still evade the doubling!
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/26/2006 8:08:11 AM | message detail
Chun-Li > Samus against Lara next round, baby! Book it!
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/26/2006 8:33:22 AM | message detail
From Who Cares? Posted 9/26/2006 10:49:36 AM
Considering Kasumi's had DoA3, Ultimate, the Volleyball game, DoA4 as a launch title for the 360, and has decent popularity with the casuals, she shouldn't really be significantly less popular now than she was then.

Those titles mean nothing if nobody that visits this site plays them.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Haste_2 | Posted 9/26/2006 9:31:10 AM | message detail
MK > Soul Calibur with characters (in popularity).
Soul Calibur > MK with games.

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SowlLikesMen | Posted 9/26/2006 9:35:48 AM | message detail
If you don't think there's any sort of overperformance here you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. We already know this site isn't that big on fighting games, and now we have two fighting game characters facing off, and one's from SF... hmmm, I wonder who's going to get the advantage there! It's almost as stupid as thinking Kasumi would lose to Roll.
BDawg | Posted 9/26/2006 9:48:15 AM | message detail
Thinking about 2002 just makes me think of how I've wasted the last four years of my life. MAKE IT STOP! Oh yeah I also find it funny that the top 50 has a Phoenix pick and an Alucard pick and yet...no Sonic pick?
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Should I start running now?
ExplicitAriel | Posted 9/26/2006 9:49:52 AM | message detail
It's actually 3 Alucard picks, and that's because Sonic sucks.

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Angsty Mermaids.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/26/2006 9:54:27 AM | message detail
It's all a part of Alucard's plan to have three brackets in the top 50.
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Supporter of Alucard.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/26/2006 9:56:53 AM | message detail
Alucard has three because they're all the same person.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
ExplicitAriel | Posted 9/26/2006 9:57:41 AM | message detail
I know they're all the same person, do you really think I'm unaware of The Plan?

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Angsty Mermaids.
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/26/2006 9:58:43 AM | message detail
Which is awesome.

(Lara > Chun-Li)
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/26/2006 10:46:20 AM | message detail
Claire's drop could look bad because of a Rikku overperformance, too, you know.

That would have to be a pretty big overperformance for me to consider it SFF. Personally, I'm expecting Rikku to get ~70% without SFF.

Considering Kasumi's had DoA3, Ultimate, the Volleyball game, DoA4 as a launch title for the 360, and has decent popularity with the casuals, she shouldn't really be significantly less popular now than she was then.

DoA3 was a launch title for the Xbox, it was out before 2k2.

DoA4 wasn't a launch title for the 360. Its sales suffered accordingly.

If you don't think there's any sort of overperformance here you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. We already know this site isn't that big on fighting games, and now we have two fighting game characters facing off, and one's from SF... hmmm, I wonder who's going to get the advantage there! It's almost as stupid as thinking Kasumi would lose to Roll.

3D fighting games and 2D fighting games are completely different genres. Like I said, DoA has about as much overlap with SF as CT does with Zelda.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/26/2006 10:52:36 AM | message detail
Anyone who would take SC over MK -- whether as a series or in the tiering of individual games, or who thinks SF and DoA don't have a significant overlap is foolish. Not that this match has be SFF, of course, but the end result X-Stats will do a lot more toward convincing people one way or another than anything I can say about it.
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Commit it to memory.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/26/2006 11:00:52 AM | message detail
Eh, I wouldn't be on any MK game being stronger than SC2 or SC1 back in 2k3. Now MK2 might do it, but I'm skeptical even so, and SC1 and SC2 would easily beat any other MK game. MK as a series would definitely win, though.

And every game has overlap. This match doesn't have substantially more SFF than any of the matches we've seen so far.

Which is interesting, given that before the contest, some people speculated that "female SFF" might exist. So far, I'm kinda doubting it.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/26/2006 1:13:28 PM | message detail
3D fighting games and 2D fighting games are completely different genres.

The only problem is that most fighting game fans started with SFII or have at least played some form of it at one point in their lives.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
ExplicitAriel | Posted 9/26/2006 1:34:51 PM | message detail
And that there are nearly no 2D fighting games still around today, you're kidding yourself beyond belief if you don't think there's a huge overlap between the two, bigger than Link and Crono anyway, not to say that people who have played one probably haven't played the other, but in the sense that they are different enough of games where people are going to be split in who they like more as they have more distinct fanbases who will consistently like one more than the other. The same can't be said for Chun-Li and Kasumi.

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Angsty Mermaids.
XxSoulxX | Posted 9/26/2006 1:58:03 PM | message detail
Alyx/Lara will be closer then Kairi/Claire.
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
RIP Eddie Guerrero. 1967-2005. Deputy Chief!
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/26/2006 1:58:47 PM | message detail
Oh please, Alyx couldn't even beat Lara Croft HERE, and that's saying something.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
ExplicitAriel | Posted 9/26/2006 1:59:39 PM | message detail
If you had a picture of my balls and the voting option was "EC's balls" they would beat Alyx.

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Angsty Mermaids.
trannyscience | Posted 9/26/2006 2:01:46 PM | message detail
I have no idea what to expect from that match as far as percentages go.
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xyzzy
ExplicitAriel | Posted 9/26/2006 2:02:17 PM | message detail
The one with my balls, or Lara?

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Angsty Mermaids.
GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/26/2006 2:55:11 PM | message detail
I'd vote for the balls
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CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: Chun Li with 64.04%
MasterMoltar | Posted 9/26/2006 2:58:39 PM | message detail
Heh, I was looking at the Oracle earlier, and I admit, I "WTF'd" at all the "Lara with 60.xx%" picks. I don't even think that one will be close at all. If Lara fails to break 70%, it'd be a poor showing IMO.

Anyway, I hope Kasumi gets this under 68%...
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It's MOOOOOOLLLLLTTTAAAARRRR!!!!
Dark115 | Posted 9/26/2006 3:02:35 PM | message detail
I dunno I think Alyx might actually have a chance, and people are underestimating her. I have Lara in my bracket but I wouldn't be surprised if she blew it
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Current Content Score: 15/15
My Collection: http://club.ign.com/b/list/custom?lid=100018&owner=Dark115.&mode=vown
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/26/2006 3:04:53 PM | message detail
Lara is weak, but Alyx is going to be pitiful. I don't know if I'd take her over Lenneth.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
trannyscience | Posted 9/26/2006 3:06:00 PM | message detail
she's Gordon Freeman lite. good luck with that one. the only way she wins is if Lara is hated at this point.
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xyzzy
cyko | Posted 9/26/2006 4:07:55 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb5/cb516.jpg

XD!!

Alyx looks somewhat mentally disabled in that pic to me. does she always look like that? and Lara doesn't get TJF, but she does get the BFGF, so she does look pretty cool.

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/26/2006 4:09:42 PM | message detail
I think the pic covers the match pretty well

lol one-sided
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/26/2006 4:10:50 PM | message detail
...Oh my.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Janus5000 | Posted 9/26/2006 4:12:12 PM | message detail
Lara always gets BFGF. It's just literal in thsi case.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
trannyscience | Posted 9/26/2006 4:12:45 PM | message detail
yeah, when I googled Alyx to figure out who the hell she was, I was like "oh this isn't gonna go well if she looks like that".
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xyzzy
Draco1214 | Posted 9/26/2006 4:15:27 PM | message detail
Lara looks badass. Since I don't care about either character, that's enough for me to give her the vote.
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Character Battle V Score - 14/14 points
Current Prediction - Chun-Li vs. Kasumi
Master Moltar | Posted 9/26/2006 4:17:27 PM | message detail
Well, that picture represents the match well.

Hell, I want to vote for Lara because of that pic. That's what she needed against Chun-Li!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Chun-Li vs. Kasumi - Bracket: Chun-Li - Vote: Chun-Li (13/14)
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/26/2006 4:21:57 PM | message detail
If you don't think there's any sort of overperformance here you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. We already know this site isn't that big on fighting games, and now we have two fighting game characters facing off, and one's from SF... hmmm, I wonder who's going to get the advantage there! It's almost as stupid as thinking Kasumi would lose to Roll.

Wait.... GameFAQs isn't big on fighting games, yet you think Kasumi losing to Roll is completely out of the question?

And I fail to see how there's any "SFF" here. If you think that this match is SFF because current gen fighting game fans grew up on Street Fighter is SFF, then you're saying that Mario and Sonic SFF any and all platforming characters in the current gen because they all grew up playing the Sonic and Mario games.


TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
greatone10 | Posted 9/26/2006 4:23:35 PM | message detail
Alyx Vance's sole purpose in this contest is to keep the universe from imploding by losing for Gordon Freeman.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest.