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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 369

Master Moltar | Posted 9/25/2006 8:36:40 PM | message detail
It's not like Kasumi ever had a chance anyway, even WITH DoA4. However, I wouldn't be surprised if Kasumi does better than everyone thinks. and by this I mean break 40%.

Prediction: Chun-Li with 59.99%



HM’s Analysis

Hey, two females facing each other that we have actual data on! These two female fighting characters have both made their presence known in these contests before – Kasumi in 2002 and Chun-Li in 2005. Both of them were pretty impressive in their respective years, but there is a definite nod to Chun-Li in this match.

Thunder Thighs comes from the most popular fighting game series, Street Fighter, and Kasumi comes from Dead or Alive. It’s really a no-brainer there who is already at an advantage – but there’s more! In 2002, Kasumi clocked in at 22.85% on Base Link while Chun-Li came in at 24.92% on Base Link. If I had to guess, I would wager that Kasumi has definitely dropped off the map over the past couple of years, so this should match should really never come into question.

Chunners should be able to take this one with ease.

Aitch Emm’s Bracket: Chun-Li

Aitch Emm’s Prediction: Chun-Li – 60% ; Kasumi – 40%

Aitch Emm’s Vote: Chun-Li



Yoblazer’s Analysis

My god, Chun-Li looks so awesome in the pic. Kasumi doesn't look bad, but the picture doesn't really accentuate her enormous TJF, so there goes about 800% of her vote. Seriously, though, folks... *realizes that no one is laughing*

Bunch of bastards.

Anyway, this match is another one that belongs in the "tough to gauge because we have very little information" category. Both of these lovely ladies have only been in one match (both losses), but the matches are three years apart. It's very shakey information, but NGamer's X-Stats calculator says that Chun wins this with a little over 54% of the vote. I think Kasumi migh have slightly been overrated in 2002 (boobs = votes). Also, there might be some slight female fighting character SFF to deal with here, so I think Chun-Li will overshoot that percentage. I'm guessing this one ends up in the standard 60/40 Snake/Knuckles range.

My prediction: Chun-Li def. Kasumi (59-41)



Lopen’s Analysis

So I'm looking at the 2002 X-Stats, and they seem to imply that Kasumi might not be fodder. Well, we know how jacked up those things are (I'm looking at you, Claire! Way to flop into foddersville!). Thanks, but no thanks. As far as the fighting game pecking order goes, if you're not from Street Fighter and you're not from Mortal Kombat, you might as well just go home (or Guilty Gear… Ky Kiske = 39% on Base Link… what?). Chun Li is from Street Fighter, Kasumi isn't, that's all there is to it. Dead or Alive 4 isn't going to help, Dead or Alive Beach Volleyball isn't gonna help.

I'm about getting bored with the female half… sorry… you've gotta forgive my lack of enthusiasm…please?

Lopen's Prediction: Chun Li with 68.99%



KH’s Analysis

lol x-stats history

Chun-Li

Summer 2005 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 34th Place [22.84%]

A Street Fighter character that happens to be a midcarder? I'm shocked, truly shocked! Though thanks to the female bracket, she escapes the fate of Ken and has the potential now of M. Bison in the Villains Contest. Come to think of it, if she can upset Yuna, Chun-Li will have made it farther in a bracket than any SF character. Including Ryu.

...damn.

Kasumi

Summer 2002 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 25th Place [22.82%]
Master Moltar | Posted 9/25/2006 8:37:28 PM | message detail
Also benefitting from the female bracket is Kasumi, although instead of enjoying the rewards of winnable matches she's just plain happy to be in the field again. Though her showing in 2002 is now in retrospect more or less respectable, back then she was just another 'one-and-done' character that 2002's field would be infamous for.

Unlike the other long-running 2k2 absentee Claire Redfield, Kasumi is up against tested competition in her first match. Her big goal here isn't winning ('cause that ain't happening), but to give the 2k2 stats a smidge of credibility. Getting 45% or so would do wonders for that, even though people might blame the Snake/Bowser nonsense on such an 'underperformance'...

Notable Releases Since Last Appearance

Chun-Li: N/A
Kasumi: Dead or Alive XTreme Beach Volleyball (XBox), Dead or Alive 4 (X360)

Upcoming Releases

Chun-Li: N/A
Kasumi: N/A

However, Kasumi will be doing good to break 40% here. Really good. Claire's already shown her 2k2 value to be all but false against Kairi, and Kasumi's primed to follow suit. Then there's the fact that SF > DoA, the fact that Kasumi's not the most popular character from her own game ('sup, Hayabusa), and that I'd probably take Chun-Li over Ryu H. myself...Kasumi just doesn't have much luck here. Cortana, Kerrigan, Jade, there'd be a ton of matches she could have won here. Welcome back, I suppose -- and don't let the door hit you on the way out. <_<

Karma Hunter's Vote: Thunder Thighs. Why? Well, the fact that I just called her "Thunder Thighs", for one. =/

Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Chun-Li with 63.74%.

This is a percent higher than Aeris got in 2002. Even with "lol 2k2 stats", I don't feel comfortable going any higher.

Upset Potential: 4.2%

Y'know, just looking at the stats and taking Kasumi's new games into account, this ain't a bad upset. Still not happening.

Upset Prediction: Kasumi with 51.51%



Guest’s Analysis - MrPatch

Projected Winner: Chun Li

This match, to me anyway, is pretty clear. First we have Chun Li of Street Fighter fame. To put it simply, she is a Chinese girl with thighs that can probably crush boulders. Oh yeah, she’s supposed to kick your ass too. Her opponent is Kasumi, a ninja who along with most of the female cast of the Dead or Alive series, has breasts the size of Barry Bond’s fat head. She is also made to kick ass. However, no matter the amount of kickassery both of these ladies have, they have a pretty bad shot at getting past what seems to be a mini-powerhouse in Yuna (blame the Final Fantasy hax) being in their division.

Now let’s get into the match itself. This isn’t going to be a blow out of any sort, but it will be a decent win. Street Fighter itself gives Chun-Li the advantage as it probably is the more popular game on the site. I don’t even remember DoA characters even doing remotely well in a contest so I think this match should be an easy decision for you bracket voters. Chun Li probably takes this in about a 53-47 split. I just don’t see Kasumi doing anything going up against Chun Li. Maybe if TJF actually kicked in for once.



Crew Consensus: We have Chun-Li winning. Low-to-mid 60's seems to be the average.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/25/2006 8:40:22 PM | message detail
Also, for my own quick predictions:

Mog Division
1) Moogle

4) Tonberry

3) Cactuar

2) Shy Guy

Goombella Division
1) Goomba

5) Boo

3) Octorock

2) Charizard

Koops Division
1) Koopa Troopa

4) Grunt (Halo)

3) Lakitu

2) Chocobo

Rocket Division
8) Midgar Zolom

5) Majora's Moon

3) Waddle Dee

2) Metool

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Mog Division
1) Moogle
2) Shy Guy

Goombella Division
1) Goomba
2) Charizard

Koops Division
1) Koopa Troopa
2) Chocobo

Rocket Division
5) Majora's Moon
2) Metool

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1) Moogle
2) Charizard
1) Koopa Troopa
2) Metool

2) Charizard
1) Koopa Troopa

2) Charizard

Struggled with a bunch of matches, but I'm fairly comfortable with most of the end result.
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Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/25/2006 8:42:52 PM | message detail
because Kasumi's far stronger than Roll and Chun-Li's not stronger than Yuna. if they weren't both fighting game characters I'd think this would be a lot closer.

Correction: Kasumi was stronger than Roll. If that match were to happen today, I bet it'd actually be pretty damn close. Chun-Li will get a tonne of votes based solely on the fact that she's as easily recognizable as Ryu (the good one)


TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2006 8:46:35 PM | message detail
I am certain Kasumi takes care of Roll without a problem. I'm not worried about that, at all. She ought to do well against Chun-Li, though not really be in contention to win.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
ShadowOwns | Posted 9/25/2006 8:47:20 PM | message detail
Am I the only one who is suprised that this match is about to hit 100k votes?
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10 days!Can't wait for the raising of the western conference champs banner. Lovin Oil Country.
charmander6000 | Posted 9/25/2006 8:50:58 PM | message detail
And we just broke 100k with 10 min. to go.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
trannyscience | Posted 9/25/2006 8:51:22 PM | message detail
Kasumi would beat Roll silly.
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/25/2006 8:52:34 PM | message detail
Turtle seems to think if he's never heard of a character before a match that no one else has either, therefore it follows that they must be fodder of the worst kind.

lol Celes/Boss
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Commit it to memory.
Draco1214 | Posted 9/25/2006 8:52:35 PM | message detail
My predictions:

Round 1:
1) Moogle
4) Tonberry
3) Cactuar
2) Shy Guy

1) Goomba
5) Boo
3) Octorock
2) Charizard

1) Koopa Troopa
5) Hydralisk
6) Goron
2) Chocobo

8) Midgar Zolom
5) Majora's Moon
3) Waddle Dee
2) Metool

Round 2:
1) Moogle
2) Shy Guy

1) Goomba
2) Charizard

1) Koopa Troopa
2) Chocobo

5) Majora's Moon
2) Metool

Round 3:
1) Moogle
2) Charizard

1) Koopa Troopa
5) Majora's Moon

Final Four:
1) Moogle
1) Koopa Troopa

Winner: 1) Moogle

...Yeah, I'm putting a lot of faith into the Moon.
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Character Battle V Score - 14/14 points
Current Prediction - Chun-Li vs. Kasumi
HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2006 8:52:54 PM | message detail
Hopefully so, probably not -- the vote totals are just a little bit better than Terra/Kerrigan and Joanna/Terra and Cortana/Kerrigan are comparable, so it shouldn't have been too big of a stretch for this match to hit 100,000 considering Terra/Kerrigan had 99,063.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/25/2006 8:53:49 PM | message detail
It's not so much faith in the Moon as it is that being a piss-poor division. I mean, I have the 1 seed being upended by Midgar Zolom!
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Commit it to memory.
cyko | Posted 9/25/2006 8:54:04 PM | message detail
i dunno, Harrich. i'm expecting Kasumi to barely pass 30%. this is the worst possible matchup she could've gotten. she's up against another fighting game female who is certainly more popular. this match has SFF written all over it, no matter where Kasumi lies. besides that, our only info on Kasumi is from one of the earliest 2002 matches. i take her match against Aeris with a grain of salt.

i will be very surprised to see Kasumi avoid the doubling.

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/25/2006 8:54:15 PM | message detail
Eh, "piss-poor" makes it sound like bad bracket-making, excuse me. It's just weak.
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Commit it to memory.
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/25/2006 8:55:13 PM | message detail
LOL Kasumi/Roll being close.
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caps
Draco1214 | Posted 9/25/2006 8:55:24 PM | message detail
I also have the Zolom upending the 1 seed. However, I have the Moon beating the Metool and I think it would give Koopa Troopa a match.
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Character Battle V Score - 14/14 points
Current Prediction - Chun-Li vs. Kasumi
therealmnm | Posted 9/25/2006 8:55:29 PM | message detail
Why not?

1) Moogle
4) Tonberry
3) Cactuar
2) Shy Guy

1) Goomba
4) Pikachu
3) Octorock
2) Charizard

1) Koopa Troopa
5) Hydralisk
6) Goron
2) Chocobo

8) Midgar Zolom
5) Majora's Moon
3) Waddle Dee
2) Metool


Charizard > Koopa Troopa
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Vote for Soma Cruz
Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2006 8:56:16 PM | message detail
Even if Kasumi goes that low or even lower, I still have no problem with her smashing Roll and just chalk her match with Chun-Li as an anomaly of some sort.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
charmander6000 | Posted 9/25/2006 8:57:49 PM | message detail
I'm beginning to think that there might be some fighter SFF. Depends on how badly Chun-Li wins.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
cyko | Posted 9/25/2006 8:58:01 PM | message detail
ok, that part i do agree with. i'd most likely take Kasumi over Roll. i already admitted that i'm expecting this match to be chalked up to SFF.

and Joanna with 61% of the brackets!!

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2006 8:58:45 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Draco1214 | Posted 9/25/2006 8:59:03 PM | message detail
Casual bracketmakers love to overestimate Halo. Expect an even split.

Joanna with 50% of the brackets.
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Character Battle V Score - 14/14 points
Current Prediction - Chun-Li vs. Kasumi
HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2006 8:59:14 PM | message detail
Joanna with 55.12% of the brackets.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/25/2006 9:00:06 PM | message detail
I don't think casual bracketmakers will realize Cortana = Halo. 61.6% for Joanna.
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Commit it to memory.
trannyscience | Posted 9/25/2006 9:00:14 PM | message detail
whoa
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xyzzy
Master Moltar | Posted 9/25/2006 9:00:15 PM | message detail
Chun Li 78.72% 37
Kasumi 21.28% 10
TOTAL VOTES 47

Ouch
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Chun-Li vs. Kasumi - Bracket: Chun-Li - Vote: Chun-Li (13/14)
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/25/2006 9:00:35 PM | message detail
Wow. 65.75% for Joanna.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Master Moltar | Posted 9/25/2006 9:00:38 PM | message detail
65.75% for Joanna...poor Casuals
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Chun-Li vs. Kasumi - Bracket: Chun-Li - Vote: Chun-Li (13/14)
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/25/2006 9:00:50 PM | message detail
Big start for Thunder Thighs??? Watch out, Yuna!
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Commit it to memory.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2006 9:01:10 PM | message detail
Dammit, I deleted my 62.12% prediction. Sucks for me!
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/25/2006 9:01:31 PM | message detail
Chun Li 73.05% 271
Kasumi 26.95% 100
TOTAL VOTES 371

Destruction!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
therealmnm | Posted 9/25/2006 9:01:43 PM | message detail
Oooooooaaaaaaaaa KIKOSHO!
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Vote for Soma Cruz
Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 9/25/2006 9:01:48 PM | message detail
I love seeing Chun Li dominate <3
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Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden
charmander6000 | Posted 9/25/2006 9:02:07 PM | message detail
Chun Li 73.05% 271
Kasumi 26.95% 100
TOTAL VOTES 371

65% took Joanna
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
trannyscience | Posted 9/25/2006 9:02:07 PM | message detail
I still take her to smash Roll no matter what's happening here. this might be bracket voting, too.
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xyzzy
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/25/2006 9:02:28 PM | message detail
Chun Li is officially the worst character of all time!
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caps
The_Ocelot | Posted 9/25/2006 9:02:48 PM | message detail
1st vote for Kasumi
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Current Character Battle 5 Score 13/14 Today's Pick: Chun Li Next Pick: Lara Croft Incorrect Picks: Celes
Who Cares? | Posted 9/25/2006 9:03:03 PM | message detail
Ah yeah, Saints are 3-0 & Chun-Li's bringing the pain...today is a good day! :)
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: Currently giving Kasumi a Kikoushou to the face!
*Just 14 days until Tales of the Abyss*
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/25/2006 9:03:05 PM | message detail
I still take her to smash Roll no matter what's happening here. this might be bracket voting, too.

I'll take this to mean Yuna is so screwed.
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Commit it to memory.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/25/2006 9:04:01 PM | message detail
Funny how the this is going around what someone used off of the "Strongest female fighter of all time" thing <_<.
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Joanna vs. Cortana / Bracket: Joanna / Vote: Cortana (12/13)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Chun-Li / Vote: Chun-Li
trannyscience | Posted 9/25/2006 9:04:01 PM | message detail
I almost took Chun Li over Yuna... this match doesn't really say much to me about Chun Li, it tells me that SF is preferred over DOA by far. I'll wait to see how badly she whips on Lara.
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xyzzy
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/25/2006 9:04:47 PM | message detail
From Karma Hunter Posted 9/25/2006 11:52:34 PM
Turtle seems to think if he's never heard of a character before a match that no one else has either, therefore it follows that they must be fodder of the worst kind.

lol Celes/Boss


Karma seems to think that if a character performed well in 2k2 that their strength would transfer to 2k6 despite missing 3 contests

lol kaira/claire


TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 9/25/2006 9:04:54 PM | message detail
Do your hear that Yuna? That's the sound of Thunder Thighs coming to send you to the Farplane!

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Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/25/2006 9:05:03 PM | message detail
This doesn't tell me much about that match with Yuna, really.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/25/2006 9:06:16 PM | message detail
Also, expect Chunners to take the day vote


TuRtLe
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I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/25/2006 9:06:17 PM | message detail
Karma seems to think that if a character performed well in 2k2 that their strength would transfer to 2k6 despite missing 3 contests

lol kaira/claire


You seem to forget I predicted Kairi to win that matchup -- with ease, as well. She massively underperformed there in my eyes.

This is more a general observation of mine, it has little to do with 2k2. I'm still perfect, after all. =P
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Commit it to memory.
MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/25/2006 9:06:31 PM | message detail
This definitely seems like Female Fighter SFF to me.
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Demyx > Axel
Z1mZum owned me in the Guru Contest with his mad skills!
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/25/2006 9:06:32 PM | message detail
Man the perfects are dropping like flies.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/25/2006 9:06:56 PM | message detail
And like I said, Roll/Kisumi would be too close to call. This match tells us nothing.


TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/25/2006 9:07:07 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=952
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2513

Yuna^h^h^h^h 2002 is so screwed
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf