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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 369

Haste_2 | Posted 9/25/2006 10:48:50 AM | message detail
But, you know, if you don't mess with the seedings, the female bracket is going to be easy regardless (though swapping the Tifa and Yuna divisions certainly wouldn't have hurt). I get the feeling (i.e. reasoning) that CJayC does far more with switching characters between divisions (and leaving the seed as is) than he does with swapping seeds.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2006 10:54:46 AM | message detail
Switch Peach and Lara, too, and you have a mean set-up in Yuna's division...not to mention Lara/Daisy, heh -- not that she'd pull the upset, but almost no matter what Lara would come out looking bad.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
PlatinumSmurf | Posted 9/25/2006 10:56:44 AM | message detail
Don't underestimate Lara. Legend was very good and well received. Plus she secured enough nominations that would have got her into the contest proper. She could suprise people and take down chunners.
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Smurf
The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism
HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2006 11:01:19 AM | message detail
I think she'll do better than expected, but in no way do I take her to beat Chun-Li. She'll be doing good to get 45%...

...but, even if that's the case and she could take her down, that means she could still have a good match with Jill like my set-up had, and Peach would have people going from losing in the second round to entering the Final Four. As is, Peach isn't getting past the Sweet Sixteen and Lara would be rather lucky to even make it that far.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2006 11:03:38 AM | message detail
Wait, Smurf, didn't you say KOS-MOS wouldn't have made it in for a proper contest and defended it like it was a fact? Lara is only one seed higher, and I know I nominated her because I didn't really care after my first five or six. For her being one of the more iconic females, I would think she would draw many more of those types of nominations than KOS-MOS...

...and don't say the new game helped her with it, 'cuz KOS-MOS had one too.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
PlatinumSmurf | Posted 9/25/2006 11:07:26 AM | message detail
Lara Croft 49.76% 44,822
KOS-MOS 50.24% 45,254
TOTAL VOTES 90,075

It's a close call whatever way you look at it.
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Smurf
The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism
XxSoulxX | Posted 9/25/2006 11:09:50 AM | message detail
Plus she secured enough nominations that would have got her into the contest proper.

Only because of the 7 female nominations. Take those out and she would miss the cut easily.
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
RIP Eddie Guerrero. 1967-2005. Deputy Chief!
consolefreak | Posted 9/25/2006 11:13:59 AM | message detail
Does anyone have a link to the board odds thing? The topic appears to have purged.
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CB: 13/13. Today: Joanna vs. Cortana.Tomorrow: Chun Li vs. Kasumi.
consolefreak | Posted 9/25/2006 11:16:00 AM | message detail
Lara Croft 49.76% 44,822
KOS-MOS 50.24% 45,254
TOTAL VOTES 90,075

It's a close call whatever way you look at it.


You have got to stop doing that.

Lara Croft 32.47% 30,441
KOS-MOS 67.53% 63,312
TOTAL VOTES 93,754



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CB: 13/13. Today: Joanna vs. Cortana.Tomorrow: Chun Li vs. Kasumi.
PlatinumSmurf | Posted 9/25/2006 11:17:08 AM | message detail
Only because of the 7 female nominations. Take those out and she would miss the cut easily.

Prove it. Saying because she's "Iconic" doesn't cut it. She has fans here, heck she even got a 1st seed before. She missed out on one contest, she's still qualified for 4. I think it's fair to say that with a new game, she's to be expected to qualify again.
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Smurf
The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/25/2006 11:17:44 AM | message detail
Considering the circumstances of that 1 seed, it's not even worth bringing up
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
XxSoulxX | Posted 9/25/2006 11:21:25 AM | message detail
She got a one seed in 2002, when CJayC made the bracket.

And even though she qualified for the next 2 contests, you could obviously see her popularity slipping. She made it in as a 15 seed in 2004 and performed horribly.

And just because she has a new game does not mean she's any more popular.
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
RIP Eddie Guerrero. 1967-2005. Deputy Chief!
Yesmar | Posted 9/25/2006 11:37:48 AM | message detail
I agree that the "suckiness" of the female bracket is due to poor bracket making. While the Villain Contest ended up being boring, I still think it had a very good bracket on paper.

2003 and the two 2005 brackets are the standouts to me in terms of bracket making. Everything else has at least some glaring fault to it. Even Sp2005 totally missed Ganon/Bowser and Bowser/Liquid which 2004 said would be really close. I totally respect and appreciate Ceej for running this contest every year, but I have no idea what he was thinking with 2004's SFF-athon. I also think Division by Eras was a horrible decision in Sp2004, but I can at least understand why he thought that might be interesting.

I also think that this Female Bracket has way more fodder than is necessary. This is totally the nominators fault, however; I think Yuffie, Rinoa, Garnet, Cammy, Saria, Epona, Meryl, and Morrigan would be able to beat half this field, and that's just to name a few.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2006 11:39:14 AM | message detail
So, wait, KOS-MOS was a 3-seed and you argued vehemiently that she wouldn't make it in a normal contest, yet Lara has a 2-seed (granted, better, but not much better when it comes to the ladies) and you talk like there's no possible way she misses out. Let's recap on their seeding for a minute, shall we?

2k2: Lara: - 1, KOS-MOS - snubbed
2k3: Lara - 7, KOS-MOS - 7
2k4: Lara - 15, KOS-MOS - 8
2k5: Lara - snubbed, KOS-MOS - 7 (13/14)
2k6: Lara - 2 (3/4), KOS-MOS - 3 (5/6)

So, aside from the year that CJayC 100% made and had seeded characters seemingly based on their iconic status (not entirely, but just look at those top seeds), KOS-MOS had matched or out-seeded Lara every contest until this one. Also, in 2k3 and 2k4 (the only two contests they've shared until this year), KOS-MOS outdoes her in the x-stats both years (though barely in 2k3, but you could argue Link/Samus SFF). Now, granted, Lara did outdo KOS-MOS in seeding this year, but I don't see why one would take Lara to beat KOS-MOS expect purely on exposure, and KOS-MOS is a good-looking woman from some popular RPG's...so I'm not worried about exposure at all.


I'm just saying you can't say anything about KOS-MOS not deserving to be in the contest that you can't say about Lara except for being one seed lower, but they're both still 2/3-seeds so that should hardly matter.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/25/2006 11:40:45 AM | message detail
Uhh...why are we talking about KOS-MOS and Lara Croft again? Oh yeah, there is the whole \"this match sucks\" part and all, but thats beside the point.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2006 11:43:39 AM | message detail
Also, Smurf, correct me if I'm wrong...but thinkin' harder, didn't you say Peach would have missed a normal bracket's field this year?
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Haste_2 | Posted 9/25/2006 11:44:20 AM | message detail
I agree that the "suckiness" of the female bracket is due to poor bracket making. While the Villain Contest ended up being boring, I still think it had a very good bracket on paper.

2003 and the two 2005 brackets are the standouts to me in terms of bracket making. Everything else has at least some glaring fault to it.


Exactly.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2006 11:49:59 AM | message detail
I'm still amazed that five of the VC matches were as close as they were (Sigma/Andross, Revolver/Nemesis, Kefka/Mithos, Ansem/CATS, and Liquid/Lavos -- not to mention Bowser and Ganon, enough said)...so props to CJay for that.

However, while Kuja/MH was a killer match and Ridley-through-Kefka/Diablo was a fun upset run, there wasn't really anything else good that came out of it. It had some good matches, but I wouldn't call it a good bracket...yet it turned out much better than it looked on paper.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
dragoontheguy | Posted 9/25/2006 11:50:10 AM | message detail
Looks like Cortana is suffering from Kerrigan syndrome. No matter how popular halo gets, nothing can change the fact that it's fanbase couldn't give two craps about her.

Actually, that's a bad comparison. At least some of starcrafts fanbase cares about Kerrigan. Can't say the same about halo fans and Cortana.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/25/2006 11:53:06 AM | message detail
Yeah, this match would totally be closer if Tron Bonne was in Cortanas place. Hell she could BEAT Joanna man!

Ok, I will stop now >_>

But yeah, Lara Croft vs Chun Li...close match or no?
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2006 11:55:45 AM | message detail
Heh...we needed Kerrigan and Joanna to switch places, badly.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/25/2006 11:57:22 AM | message detail
Chun-Li will annihilate Lara. I don't really care what the circumstances were, in no world does Chun-Li fail to break 20% on Samus.
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Commit it to memory.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2006 12:01:52 PM | message detail
Depends on which Lara shows up. If we see Lara-2k3 (which had her face Zelda the weekend one of her movies hit the box-office, FYI), she gets 45.85% on Chun-Li. If it's Lara-2k4 though...try 29.92%.

Do keep in mind that Lara's last game supposedly revived the series and Chun-Li may be a bit over-rated thanks to Solid/Bowser...but even then, I wouldn't expect the match to be close -- her 2k3 value will NOT hold up and she will only match that if her series truly is revived (which I'm kind of doubting). I'm not saying 2k4 is right, not at all, but she's got an uphill fight to get 48+% on her.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Haste_2 | Posted 9/25/2006 12:03:38 PM | message detail
Samus/Lara was a fluke. It's not like Lara Croft had fans in 2K3 and then suddenly lost them all in 2K4, especially since she actually went UP a percent between 2K2 and 2K3. I imagine Lara'll be weaker now than 2K3 suggests, but not nearly as low as her 2K4 value.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2006 12:05:12 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2006 12:07:01 PM | message detail
I can run with that idea, though I still think she dropped a decent bit -- I wonder how much that mainstream of a movie opening that weekend helped her. If it was much, it could have hid some dropping she did between 2k2 and 2k4...

...but no, I don't think 2k4 is legit.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
dragoontheguy | Posted 9/25/2006 12:20:50 PM | message detail
Question: How much would Alyx Vance have to get on lara for you to doubt she has any chance at all of beating chun-li?

Personally I'd say if she fails a doubling, but maybe I'm underestimating Alyx... I severely doubt it though, I'm more then likely overestimating her.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/25/2006 12:24:31 PM | message detail
She has no chance. Lara could get 80%+ on her and all it would prove is that Alyx is uber-fodder (and that Lara isn't getting anti-voted for some reason). I would be really, *really* surprised if she even made a match out of it with Chun-Li...I just can't see GameFAQs' preference going like that.
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Commit it to memory.
dragoontheguy | Posted 9/25/2006 12:30:44 PM | message detail
I'm not disagreeing KH, but a lot of people think it's a potential upset. I'm just wondering how badly lara would have to do for them to change their mind.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
MegaReincarnate | Posted 9/25/2006 12:41:39 PM | message detail
Smurf's a few posts away from earning his own "lol smurf-stats".
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Hispanics 4 | Whites 5
Asians 5 | Blacks 4
wavedash101 | Posted 9/25/2006 12:48:00 PM | message detail
lol Smtats!
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Haste_2 | Posted 9/25/2006 1:11:57 PM | message detail
Question: How much would Alyx Vance have to get on lara for you to doubt she has any chance at all of beating chun-li?

I have no faith in Lara whatsoever in the first place. If Lara Croft managed 85+% against Alyx I might start being skeptical about Chun-Li's chances, but that's obviously not going to come close happening.

I have absolutely no clue how popular Alyx Vance is, especially since Gordon Freeman is apparently fickle. I haven't played HL2, either. I think she'd be lucky to be mid-fodder, if I had to wager a guess. We did see Lara Croft get 59% against Ryo Hazuki, who's mid/low fodder.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Luis_Sera89 | Posted 9/25/2006 1:14:08 PM | message detail
With the direction GameFAQs seems to be going at the moment (lol ZeldaFAQs), I'm think Tingle could escape the doubling from Sora or at least not be too far off. What do you reckon the chances of this are?
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Damn you Z1mZum! Were it not for my owning at the hands of you I would've claimed the guru crown at the 1st attempt!
Haste_2 | Posted 9/25/2006 1:15:18 PM | message detail
Oh, and check out Cortana's after-school vote...she might end up with above 40% at the end.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/25/2006 1:16:39 PM | message detail
With the direction GameFAQs seems to be going at the moment (lol ZeldaFAQs), I'm think Tingle could escape the doubling from Sora or at least not be too far off. What do you reckon the chances of this are?

About the chances of Sora losing to Phoenix Wright.
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Commit it to memory.
Xuxon | Posted 9/25/2006 1:18:28 PM | message detail
I really doubt Cortana ends up above 40. She's not even pulling 42 now, and more than half the votes have definitely been cast.
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Take off every sig.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/25/2006 1:22:17 PM | message detail
Heh...we needed Kerrigan and Joanna to switch places, badly.

Kerrigan vs. Cortana? Just when I thought this setup couldn't get any worse. Terra/Joanna isn't particularly interesting to me either. Sure, it'd be closer, but I still don't see Terra losing that.

And why do people still insist on arguing with Smurf, especially people who should know better? This baffles me.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
trannyscience | Posted 9/25/2006 1:25:09 PM | message detail
agreed with Leon... except I take Joanna over Terra.
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xyzzy
HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2006 1:36:22 PM | message detail
Just saying, Terra/Joanna and Cortana/Kerrigan are much more debatable than Terra/Kerrigan and Joanna/Cortana...I mean, come on, Terra/Kerrigan were in the same four-pack last year, and the idea of another Halo/Starcraft match behind Cortana/Kerrigan would have had the board talking alot more. Throw in that they both would have likely been closer than the matches we got, and that would have been better.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
KingBartz | Posted 9/25/2006 2:01:18 PM | message detail
In one more hour, with school out everywhere, I predict Cortana gets +45% updates.

That would be nice for my pick.

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The end of the world is nigh! Earth Life Remaining: 8 days
SC2K6: 12/13 Today's pick: Joanna Dark
KingBartz | Posted 9/25/2006 2:05:20 PM | message detail
Updates are so completely erratic for this match...
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The end of the world is nigh! Earth Life Remaining: 8 days
SC2K6: 12/13 Today's pick: Joanna Dark
Draco1214 | Posted 9/25/2006 2:06:04 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Draco1214 | Posted 9/25/2006 2:06:50 PM | message detail
A question about the Lara/Alyx match: How much does Lara have to get on Alyx for you guys to begin to doubt the HL2 boost? Remember that Lara is pure fodder herself and that Alyx Vance is actually visible throughout HL2, unlike Gordon Freeman (though she isn't the main). Also, Lara Croft is like the fodderific PS1 version of Master Chief.
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Character Battle V Score - 13/13 points
Current Prediction - Joanna Dark vs. Cortana
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/25/2006 2:07:35 PM | message detail
I really don't give a crap about what Alyx does against Lara. It won't prove a single thing to me one way or the other.

...Unless she beats Lara, that is.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
KingBartz | Posted 9/25/2006 2:08:41 PM | message detail
So that's who Alyx Vance is. Okay...

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The end of the world is nigh! Earth Life Remaining: 8 days
SC2K6: 12/13 Today's pick: Joanna Dark
warning_crazy | Posted 9/25/2006 2:11:10 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
KingBartz | Posted 9/25/2006 2:11:54 PM | message detail
EVERYBODY VOTE ALYX NOW!

I'm holding you to that.

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The end of the world is nigh! Earth Life Remaining: 8 days
SC2K6: 12/13 Today's pick: Joanna Dark
Master Moltar | Posted 9/25/2006 2:11:55 PM | message detail
Yeah, I'm with Leon. That match isn't going to say anything about anything to me.

And these Chun-Li/Kasumi write-ups are...interesting. I didn't think a majority would actually have Kasumi doing decently.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Joanna vs. Cortana - Bracket: Joanna - Vote: Joanna (12/13)
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/25/2006 2:12:49 PM | message detail
Remember that Kasumi almost did as well as Master Chief against Aeris. Sure, that was 2002, but she did a LOT better than Tina.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Big Bob | Posted 9/25/2006 2:12:52 PM | message detail
I still have yet to see pics of ExTha vomiting on Kingdom Hearts. I doubt if Alyx wins he's gonna do it.
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My bracket is so screwed.