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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 369

transience | Posted 9/24/2006 9:34:09 PM | message detail
what day is the final on? is it a weekday or a weekend?
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
Same Orphanage | Posted 9/24/2006 9:36:23 PM | message detail
Final as in bracket final or BR final?
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CB5 Points: 12/13, Current Oracle placement: 20/156
Now playing: Xenosaga 3 (kinda)
transience | Posted 9/24/2006 9:37:09 PM | message detail
bracket final.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
Who Cares? | Posted 9/24/2006 9:37:41 PM | message detail
I counted it up the other day, so unless my math is off...Female final is on a Saturday, and Male is on Sunday.
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Kasumi (Tomorrow)
*Just 15 days until Tales of the Abyss*
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/24/2006 9:37:52 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Same Orphanage | Posted 9/24/2006 9:38:00 PM | message detail
November 13th for the bracket final...'

That's a Monday.
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CB5 Points: 12/13, Current Oracle placement: 20/156
Now playing: Xenosaga 3 (kinda)
SonicRaptor | Posted 9/24/2006 9:38:30 PM | message detail
That's assuming another Ryu/Jill match doesn't happen.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/24/2006 9:38:30 PM | message detail
Nevermind. Bracket final is on November 13th, I believe, which is a Monday.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Phediuk | Posted 9/24/2006 9:41:33 PM | message detail
Haven't posted here for about a week. Just goes to show how boring this contest's been so far. :/
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/24/2006 9:45:19 PM | message detail
I agree with Harrich wholeheartedly.

Ada/Jade was easily 10 times worse than this match, if only because who the hell are they?

At least Joanna and Cortana are both from extremely successful games (not sure how successful RE:2 was)

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/24/2006 9:45:50 PM | message detail
Resident Evil 4 was extremely successful, sir.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Same Orphanage | Posted 9/24/2006 9:46:27 PM | message detail
I'm not sure how successfull RE2 was, but I can tell you that RE4 was.
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CB5 Points: 12/13, Current Oracle placement: 20/156
Now playing: Xenosaga 3 (kinda)
Same Orphanage | Posted 9/24/2006 9:46:40 PM | message detail
darn you hm
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CB5 Points: 12/13, Current Oracle placement: 20/156
Now playing: Xenosaga 3 (kinda)
MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/24/2006 9:47:00 PM | message detail
RE2 is the best selling RE game to date.
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Demyx > Axel
Z1mZum owned me in the Guru Contest with his mad skills!
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/24/2006 9:48:32 PM | message detail
I can say with relative confidence that I'd take Ada to thrash either of these jokers. Well, maybe not thrash Joanna, but I wouldn't see it much closer than 55-45.
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Commit it to memory.
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/24/2006 9:51:53 PM | message detail
http://gonintendo.com/wp-content/photos/4g9742f.jpg

The advertising begins!!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
HaRRicH | Posted 9/24/2006 9:52:52 PM | message detail
I'll remain skeptical on Ada decisively beating Joanna until further notice. I'm not sold on her, no matter how badly she beat Jade. I know she's in bot RE2 and RE4, the two biggest RE games in the series (and maybe the two best-selling as well?), but I know Ada's not too big in either game and I've never heard my brother mention her (who is an RE nut).
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Same Orphanage | Posted 9/24/2006 9:57:42 PM | message detail
I think Ada would be a pretty safe pick on Joanna. Sure you can't use Jade as a good scale to judge her strength, but I really can't see Joanna be all that strong.
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CB5 Points: 12/13, Current Oracle placement: 20/156
Now playing: Xenosaga 3 (kinda)
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/24/2006 9:59:44 PM | message detail
Meh, Ada only did so well on Jade because of Asian SFF. Joanna would beat Ada easily, thanks to GameFAQs being so racist.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/24/2006 10:07:08 PM | message detail
Oh, I'm not saying Joanna would win, but I'm saying that right now just because Ada winning is the safe bet doesn't mean it's infallible. I don't have THAT much faith in her, and if Joanna was SFF'd more than a little, not to mention PD0 helping some, then it becomes debatable.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Same Orphanage | Posted 9/24/2006 10:09:30 PM | message detail
I'd say KH hit it about right with a 55-45 in favor of Ada. Maybe a bit closer.
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CB5 Points: 12/13, Current Oracle placement: 20/156
Now playing: Xenosaga 3 (kinda)
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/24/2006 10:22:34 PM | message detail
64% update, then a 55% update? WTF.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI
HaRRicH | Posted 9/24/2006 10:24:43 PM | message detail
There is only one explanation: Romero.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
HaRRicH | Posted 9/24/2006 11:16:18 PM | message detail
As I go to bed, Cortana's got 38.1%. As this point, using Joanna's 2k5 value, she's at 11.52% on last year's Link...but with the chances of Joanna being SFF'd, PD0 helping her out, and Cortana rising through-out the day, expect her to finish a decent bit higher than that. Not alot higher, but noticably if all goes well.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
transience | Posted 9/24/2006 11:47:38 PM | message detail
come on now, Cortana is not getting SFF'd. most of Joanna's strength is coming from the 64 game, and either way Halo is miles more popular than PDZ.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
Same Orphanage | Posted 9/24/2006 11:48:49 PM | message detail
I'd say nearly all of Joanna's strength is from the N64 game. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't PDZ get less than spectacular ratings?
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CB5 Points: 12/13, Current Oracle placement: 20/156
Now playing: Xenosaga 3 (kinda)
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/24/2006 11:58:52 PM | message detail
Ratings aren't that big a deal. I think PDZ is enough to give Joanna a tiny boost. When you're the star of a very hyped game after having been completely absent for five years, you're bound to get something.

Anyway, I'm hoping Joanna wins the day vote. After Castlevania took it against Halo, I'll never say never again.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
Same Orphanage | Posted 9/25/2006 12:01:46 AM | message detail
I'm just taking ratings into account because in a lot of cases, better ratings mean more people will play the game.
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CB5 Points: 12/13, Current Oracle placement: 20/156
Now playing: Xenosaga 3 (kinda)
transience | Posted 9/25/2006 12:02:19 AM | message detail
but Castlevania didn't take it from Halo, it just didn't do as much as we expected it to. Castlevania still fell 1% during the day - you could call it a wash, but Castlevania in no way "took it" from Halo.

I think it was more of a surprise that Castlevania didn't fall apart in the daytime, personally. Joanna (or rather, Nintendo) has a better day vote than does Castlevania. I'd expect her to do better than I would Alucard for example.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
Jericoholic | Posted 9/25/2006 12:03:34 AM | message detail
My thoughts on this contest so far:

I'm glad I didn't really listen to you guys after the bracket is released. Just like every year, I make the bracket within the first few hours by contest knowledge and instincts, and never touch the bracket again. As a lurked here, read all the debates between Kairi/Claire and The Boss/Celes, I doubted by picks, but never changed them, and in the end, I end up with my name on the contest stats...

Unfortunately, instincts told me GF would NW...
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I don't have an ego.
I'm way too cool for that.
Same Orphanage | Posted 9/25/2006 12:04:35 AM | message detail
GFNW will remain true for at least one more year. BOOK IT!
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CB5 Points: 12/13, Current Oracle placement: 20/156
Now playing: Xenosaga 3 (kinda)
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/25/2006 12:07:35 AM | message detail
Huh, I remember Castlevania taking it. Ah well, **** GameFAQs.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
Xuxon | Posted 9/25/2006 1:32:55 AM | message detail
come on now, Cortana is not getting SFF'd. most of Joanna's strength is coming from the 64 game, and either way Halo is miles more popular than PDZ.

HaRRicH was referring to the fact that Joanna may have been SFFed by Mario last year, not Cortana being SFFed by Joanna. Thus underrating her strength from which Cortana's 11.52% value is derived. And that that plus other factors mean this year's x-stats will have Cortana ranking higher than that.
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Take off every sig.
transience | Posted 9/25/2006 1:35:26 AM | message detail
oh... I seem to have completely misread that or something. sorry.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
greatone10 | Posted 9/25/2006 3:06:54 AM | message detail
I'm glad I didn't really listen to you guys after the bracket is released. Just like every year, I make the bracket within the first few hours by contest knowledge and instincts, and never touch the bracket again. As a lurked here, read all the debates between Kairi/Claire and The Boss/Celes, I doubted by picks, but never changed them, and in the end, I end up with my name on the contest stats...

Christ, if you are going to post something like this, at least wait until a board favorite loses. So far that has yet to happen.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest.
Kratos_42 | Posted 9/25/2006 3:40:46 AM | message detail
Damn, did we lose ANY perfects?
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He wields the blade of a fallen hero, but now he is the hero, and it is the others who fall. He is rising.
Jericoholic | Posted 9/25/2006 4:24:21 AM | message detail
Nah. I felt like posting it now. The board tends to overevaluate the match to the point where it becomes a toss up. Every year, people complain about listening to others here, and how they should have stuck with their initial guess. That's my strategy, and that's how it works. Of course, people need stuff to talk about for the month or so when the bracket is released, and with alot boring matches in the bracket, reasonably close ones get blown out of proportions. Not saying its bad, since then the board would be dead, but that it happens.

And we lost a few perfects somehow according to TRE's numbers...
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I don't have an ego.
I'm way too cool for that.
transience | Posted 9/25/2006 4:25:34 AM | message detail
but you act as if the board has been wrong. it's been right 100% of the time so far.

..what exactly are you trying to say?
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
Xuxon | Posted 9/25/2006 5:21:48 AM | message detail
Joanna... winning the day vote?
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Take off every sig.
Mr Lasastryke | Posted 9/25/2006 5:23:59 AM | message detail
but you act as if the board has been wrong. it's been right 100% of the time so far.

I distinctly remember a big portion of the board saying Claire would beat Kairi.
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It belongs to the imperfection of everything human that man can only attain his desire by passing through its opposite. ~ Kierkegaard
charmander6000 | Posted 9/25/2006 5:37:42 AM | message detail
True just not the majority.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
charmander6000 | Posted 9/25/2006 5:44:20 AM | message detail
Looks like we are going to have a close race for least vote totals. Right now it's projected that Joanna/Cortana will finish 400 ahead of Ada/Jade and that would easily change depending on the day vote.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
MegaReincarnate | Posted 9/25/2006 6:07:49 AM | message detail
This match is depressing.

What's also depressing is that I haven't bothered voting in half these horrible matches.

It's also sad that Nidoran F actually deserves a 5 or 6 seed in this field. I mean, this field is just horrible.
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Hispanics 4 | Whites 5
Asians 5 | Blacks 4
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/25/2006 6:21:39 AM | message detail
Wow. Joanna doing a little better in the before-school hours.

Cortanna being so bad that she might not even benefit from her game's day vote? Tsk tsk tsk.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/25/2006 6:30:12 AM | message detail
Amy got the day vote against KOS-MOS, it stands to reason that Cortana should concievably get the day vote in this match.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Who Cares? | Posted 9/25/2006 6:31:35 AM | message detail
I still maintain much of the fault on the female half is just poor bracketmaking. Hell, the Villains had just as much fodder, but yet the bracket was still put together fairly well. The only thing we were really missing in that one was Bowser/Ganondorf.

However with this bracket, there's been too many times I found myself saying "If only ____ switched positions with ____!" And believe me, this is a phrase we'll be saying a few times in the male side too.
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Kasumi (Tomorrow)
*Just 15 days until Tales of the Abyss*
ShadowOwns | Posted 9/25/2006 8:49:15 AM | message detail
But we can always say "if this guy was here......." Cjay does his best (sometimes?) and we just have to accept that maybe he was putting a little more effort intoo the male bracket this time around. Maybe he was even planning the female bracket being this boring :S
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10 days!Can't wait for the raising of the western conference champs banner. Lovin Oil Country.
wavedash101 | Posted 9/25/2006 8:50:12 AM | message detail
Slowest match ever. Agree?
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/25/2006 8:54:49 AM | message detail
At the 11:50 mark, this match has 45593 votes. To compare with other matches at the same time:

Ada/Jade - 44976
Peach/Daisy - 49519
Terra/Kerrigan - 45903
KOS-MOS/Amy - 47749
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Who Cares? | Posted 9/25/2006 8:57:28 AM | message detail
But we can always say "if this guy was here......." Cjay does his best (sometimes?) and we just have to accept that maybe he was putting a little more effort intoo the male bracket this time around. Maybe he was even planning the female bracket being this boring :S

Honestly, the only brackets prior to this year I felt needed serious tweaks were 2k4 & the series contest. Every other bracket was pretty good.

IMO 2k5 was the best he put together. Just look up & down that thing and tell me he didn't have the X-Stats in mind!
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Kasumi (Tomorrow)
*Just 15 days until Tales of the Abyss*