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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 368

AmazingKirby | Posted 9/24/2006 9:16:44 AM | message detail
Yuna to break 100k? o_O
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caps
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/24/2006 10:39:02 AM | message detail
this poll's making me happy about my Snake > Mega Man pck.
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Pride. Power. Pinstripes.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/24/2006 10:58:52 AM | message detail
Though Roll is definitely, no way around it, undoubtedly, without question, forever and always weak-ass fodder that we can't use to appropriately judge Yuna...she's still looking mighty fine. It's not as if she wasn't the favorite to win the division anyway, but hey, this doesn't hurt her chances any. Also, as it's already been said, this makes Ganon look better as well.


I'm going to try to tally up points in Ganon's favor and compare the points in Vincent's favor...and see how things look. Feel free to add to the list:



Ganon:
~He has lots of reason to be adjusted much higher last year.
~Vincent could be a little over-rated.
~DS ownership has jumped about 20% since last year.
~The hype for the Wii and/or LoZ:TP is big and close.
~LoZ upset the board against FF in the Series Contest this summer.
~Ganon has both the LoZ and SSB fanbase to draw from, and SSB impressed this summer.
~He has the higher seed.
~He'll likely have the bracket support.
~Zelda broke 100,000 votes against Carmen in the only match we've seen feature a Nintendo character not in a SFF match -- Peach couldn't do that to Daisy though, for what it's worth.
~Samus/Nidoran has only been outdone in vote-totals by Tifa/Ivy and Zelda/Carmen. Tifa/Ivy outdid Zelda/Carmen though, sou you could take that as a small point for Vincent, but with the next three being (in order) Samus/Nidoran, Aeris/Marle, and Peach/Daisy, as well as Tifa/Aeris being in KH2 while Vincent wasn't, I'll take it as a small point for Ganon here.

Vincent:
~In the unadjusted stats, Vincent has a huge lead on Ganon (Ganon gets 39.39% according to them).
~Aeris/Marle could have one argue Vincent didn't rSFF Crono, thus was legitimately that strong last year.
~He impressed with very minor bracket support last year.
~FF:AC showed him be very bad-ass, and lots of the site has seen it.
~DoC:FF7 has Vincent...
~~~...his first role since 1999 (yes, I counted Ehrgeiz).
~~~...goes outside his original genre.
~~~...was big on advertisements.
~~~...in a rather new game.
~FF7 in the Top 100 List says that it's still the top game around GameFAQs.
~Behind Cloud and Sephiroth, Vincent's consistantly the next in line in FF7-favorites.
~The KH2 wave brought a more Square-oriented influx here, and KH2 is probably still the biggest game released yet this year.
~HM supports Ganon with his bracket and heart. =P






Did I miss any? Am I wrong on anything?
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/24/2006 11:01:29 AM | message detail
Tifa/Ivy outdid Zelda/Carmen though,

For what it's worth, Tifa/Ivy was on a weekend and Zelda/Carmen was on a weekday.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/24/2006 11:05:45 AM | message detail
Celes/Boss looked good for Ganon and bad for Vincent. Yuna/Roll could be seen as a match in Vincent's favor. Ganon's boosted every year since he appeared (just like Crono lol).
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/24/2006 11:09:56 AM | message detail
Eh, I would sooner see Yuna/Roll being something in favor of Ganon. If Yuna was underrated last year, it would be because of Samus/Mario, Samus/Ganon or both.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/24/2006 11:12:51 AM | message detail
Er, yeah, I meant Ganon. Stupid typos...
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/24/2006 11:18:31 AM | message detail
Navi is annoying. Cortana is not.

And Joanna has a tenth of Kirby's strength...
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CB06 - Score: 12/12 Rank: Tied - 1st Yesterday's Pick: Aeris
Today's Pick: Yuna Tomorrow's Pick: Cortana
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/24/2006 11:36:13 AM | message detail
What kind of logic is that? Joanna has absolutely nothing in common with Kirby except that they both made an appearance on the N64 at one time, and the comparison between Cortana and Navi is weak at best.

I figured the gap between Master Chief and Joanna would be around the same as the gap between Link and someone like Kirby.

Although now that I think about it...

TuRtLe
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I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
ExplicitAriel | Posted 9/24/2006 12:23:42 PM | message detail
Right now Roll is expected to go 50/50 with Yuri... excuse me while I believe Yuna is underrated!

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Angsty Mermaids.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/24/2006 12:25:39 PM | message detail
Carmen Sandiego is expected to lose to Yuri. Excuse me if I believe that Samus is OVERRATED!
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Commit it to memory.
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/24/2006 12:26:22 PM | message detail
Excuse me while I think of an excuse for why Rikku is still stronger than Yuna!
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Lopen | Posted 9/24/2006 12:27:06 PM | message detail
Excuse me if I believe X-Stats don't work for fodder of this sort! Okay, I said this about Terra/Kerrigan... but I just set the line too high! Let's put the standard at 14% or so!

I don't think Yuna's stronger than she looks, and I don't think Roll has any trouble destroying Yuri. (Ulti style destruction, here)
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/24/2006 12:27:51 PM | message detail
WELL EXCUUUUSE ME PRINCESS
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Commit it to memory.
PlatinumSmurf | Posted 9/24/2006 12:33:20 PM | message detail
Honestly, I feel that Vincent overperformed by a decent chunk last year. Mainly because FF7 generally SFF's other Square games.

If Vincent really is at Squall's level, he should have beaten him by more than a few hundred. In actual fact, he's probably below Squall's level. At somebody like Knuckles level.

Although at the same time. Knuckles > Magus > Ganondorf. >_<

And the best character that Ganon has ever beaten is Tidus, and that was narrow at best too. I think the winner is going to choke aganist Sonic.
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Smurf
The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism
ExplicitAriel | Posted 9/24/2006 12:39:01 PM | message detail
HI, I'M BIAS!












....I hope every single one of you read that in the voice of Daisy.
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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Angsty Mermaids.
Janus5000 | Posted 9/24/2006 12:49:05 PM | message detail
I wish I had.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
consolefreak | Posted 9/24/2006 12:51:46 PM | message detail
I think the winner is going to choke aganist Sonic.

How is that, when Ganon and Vincent broke 40% on Sephiroth and Crono respectively? What kind of "choke" are you expecting, really?
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CB: 12/12. Today: Yuna vs. Roll.Tomorrow: Joanna vs. Cortana
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/24/2006 12:53:26 PM | message detail
You know, as much as I love Sonic and hope he's in the finals, I'd rather he just lose to CATS so Smurf can go jump off the face of the earth.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/24/2006 12:55:08 PM | message detail
You silly goose, that would just begin the "Let's kick Mega Man out of the Noble Nine and put in CATS" schtick!
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Commit it to memory.
Lopen | Posted 9/24/2006 12:55:28 PM | message detail
Psh, would you guys stop bringing up the Ganon/Seph match? Jeez.

But hey, I could see Sonic winning against Ganon/Vincent 55-45... and that would be a "choke" in my books.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
PlatinumSmurf | Posted 9/24/2006 12:55:40 PM | message detail
Look at it this way, Vincent almost directly scored 54% on Knuckles.

No, there is no way in hell that Knuckles is anywhere near Sonic. So Vincent would not be able to mount any sort of challenge on Sonic.

45% at best.

Which means that it's up to Ganon to better 55% on Vincent. Which he's not capable of doing. -_-
So, I think it's almost likely that Ganon/Vincent will hover around 45% on Sonic. Assuming they haven't dropped for some reason.
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Smurf
The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 9/24/2006 1:00:13 PM | message detail
Sonic 62.03% 53,729
Dante 37.97% 32,887
TOTAL VOTES 86,617


Vincent 54.01% 49,171
Dante 45.99% 41,878
TOTAL VOTES 91,049


lol. Vincent is so screwed.
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My World is still Smurf!
Draco1214 | Posted 9/24/2006 1:02:24 PM | message detail
Yeah, it's not like Dante and Vincent have had new games since 2004 or anything.
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Character Battle V Score - 12/12 points
Current Prediction - Yuna vs. Roll
consolefreak | Posted 9/24/2006 1:08:25 PM | message detail
But hey, I could see Sonic winning against Ganon/Vincent 55-45... and that would be a "choke" in my books.

What? The stats predict Sonic to beat Vincent with 53.8%, and to beat -adjusted- Ganon with 56.31%. 55-45 is pretty much the expected range. Sonic is still the heavy favourite. Few people have the Ganon/Vincent upset.

Look at it this way, Vincent almost directly scored 54% on Knuckles.

No, there is no way in hell that Knuckles is anywhere near Sonic. So Vincent would not be able to mount any sort of challenge on Sonic.

45% at best.

Which means that it's up to Ganon to better 55% on Vincent. Which he's not capable of doing. -_-
So, I think it's almost likely that Ganon/Vincent will hover around 45% on Sonic. Assuming they haven't dropped for some reason.


So you define choking as them simply losing? That's practically a given for most people.

Sonic 62.03% 53,729
Dante 37.97% 32,887
TOTAL VOTES 86,617


Vincent 54.01% 49,171
Dante 45.99% 41,878
TOTAL VOTES 91,049

lol. Vincent is so screwed.



http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2018
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2110

CATS 61.60% 53,514
Ganondorf 38.40% 33,363
TOTAL VOTES 86,877


lol. Sonic is so screwed.

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CB: 12/12. Today: Yuna vs. Roll.Tomorrow: Joanna vs. Cortana
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/24/2006 1:10:15 PM | message detail
Although at the same time. Knuckles > Magus > Ganondorf. >_<

You are not intelligent. Quit this.

And the best character that Ganon has ever beaten is Tidus, and that was narrow at best too. I think the winner is going to choke aganist Sonic.

Yeah. He didn't beat Auron with 54% or anything.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
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Lopen | Posted 9/24/2006 1:12:32 PM | message detail
55-45 is pretty much the expected range

Even so, just "doing the expected" would be a disappointment for me. Maybe "choke" isn't quite the right word... but it'll work!
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
consolefreak | Posted 9/24/2006 1:13:59 PM | message detail
Even so, just "doing the expected" would be a disappointment for me. Maybe "choke" isn't quite the right word... but it'll work!

It would be disappointing. Certainly considering I have Vincent > Crono >_>
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CB: 12/12. Today: Yuna vs. Roll.Tomorrow: Joanna vs. Cortana
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/24/2006 1:16:18 PM | message detail
55/45 is definitely not "choking." Something like 60/40 would be choking. <<

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
__Smurf__ | Posted 9/24/2006 1:16:36 PM | message detail
Woah, Who said Auron > Tidus. The fact that Tidus performed 2% better on Ganon, proves it.

--2003--

Tidus 58.06% 53,278
Auron 41.94% 38,488

--2004--

Tidus 46.29% 42,847
Auron 53.71% 49,718

--2005--

Tidus 56.58% 51,979
Auron 43.42% 39,887



Tidus 2 v 1 Auron
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Smurf. The Cream of Knuckles Fanboyism.
consolefreak | Posted 9/24/2006 1:17:43 PM | message detail
Woah, Who said Auron > Tidus. The fact that Tidus performed 2% better on Ganon, proves it.


Stop acting like characters don't boost/drop. Auron > Tidus.

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CB: 12/12. Today: Yuna vs. Roll.Tomorrow: Joanna vs. Cortana
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/24/2006 1:18:09 PM | message detail

Tidus 56.58% 51,979
Auron 43.42% 39,887


Did you do something stupid again and use the unadjusted stats?

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"Master using it and you can have this."
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Draco1214 | Posted 9/24/2006 1:18:46 PM | message detail
Let's see, in 2003 Tidus was behind an overrated Magus, while Auron was SFFd into oblivion by Cloud. In 2004, Tidus was exposed and Auron was behind another wall of SFF thanks to Sephiroth. In 2005, Tidus was exposed yet again and could possibly be overrated thanks to Bowser/Kirby and Solid ****. Auron, meanwhile, was behind potential double SFF.
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Character Battle V Score - 12/12 points
Current Prediction - Yuna vs. Roll
Janus5000 | Posted 9/24/2006 1:19:20 PM | message detail

--2005--

Tidus 56.58% 51,979
Auron 43.42% 39,887


Tidus > Ganon (who is naturally so screwed) !!
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
TRE Public Account | Posted 9/24/2006 1:30:11 PM | message detail
Although at the same time. Knuckles > Magus > Ganondorf. >_<

Knuckles > Magus > Sonic > Ganondorf
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/14

Stop using 2k3 to support Sonic.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/24/2006 1:32:47 PM | message detail
Much as I recognize Smurf's arguments being laughable, it's not exactly like Magus 2k3 is legit, is it? Knuckles 2k5 > Ganon 2k3.
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Commit it to memory.
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/24/2006 1:34:08 PM | message detail
Why anyone even bothers bringing up 2003 anymore confuses me. That was three long years ago. >>

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"Master using it and you can have this."
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/24/2006 1:43:10 PM | message detail
What's the next best Ganon value we have? 2004? lol CATS. Villains? Hey, I guess Ganon is taking the male bracket after all! (lol HM)

2005 is almost definitely the closest to his "true" value, though I'd still think it underrates him significantly.
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Commit it to memory.
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/24/2006 1:50:03 PM | message detail
Yeah, 2k3 is no longer feasible. You couldn't use 2002 stats in 2005, so it stands to reason you can't use 2003 stats now.

Next year 2004 will be GONE. Woo.
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Kratos_42 | Posted 9/24/2006 1:53:47 PM | message detail
Oh no, I've seen 2002 stats used before.
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He wields the blade of a fallen hero, but now he is the hero, and it is the others who fall. He is rising.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/24/2006 1:56:09 PM | message detail
2004's stats were nigh-useless to begin with. 2003 serves as a reference point for exactly how high Ganon has to have boosted since his midcarder days. 50.5 on Tidus to 54 on Auron is no joke, though it's damn hard to tell exactly where Auron stands in previous years. Using either Tails or Scorpion presents problems.

If Ganondorf does end up with a comparable percentage on Vincent as he did with Auron, I'm going to start feeling very scared for Master Chief.
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Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/24/2006 1:57:26 PM | message detail
And 2002's stats not being used anymore? You think Solid would be the unanimous pick over Squall if it weren't for Snake/Squall 2k2?
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Commit it to memory.
Draco1214 | Posted 9/24/2006 1:59:43 PM | message detail
Uh, why would feel scared for Master Chief? Did you take him over Auron?
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Character Battle V Score - 12/12 points
Current Prediction - Yuna vs. Roll
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/24/2006 2:00:38 PM | message detail
I'm pleased that we can finally get a good value on Ganon this year. He's go no one to run into that would present a problem with SFF!


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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/24/2006 2:01:25 PM | message detail
Auron being that good makes Scorpion look much better, which in turn benefits Sub-Zero. Factor in Annihilation coming out right around that match and it gives me reason to sweat. I almost took that upset, after all.
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Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/24/2006 2:02:18 PM | message detail
Indeed. No more excuses with Ganon, for either side.

...I can't wait for this female bracket to be over.
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Commit it to memory.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/24/2006 2:03:07 PM | message detail
I'm pleased that we can finally get a good value on Ganon this year. He's go no one to run into that would present a problem with SFF!

Samus/Ganon had SFF last year. Why would things change this year? >_>
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Draco1214 | Posted 9/24/2006 2:03:43 PM | message detail
Yeah, I too heavily considered Sub-Zero over Master Chief.

I think Master Chief's going to put on another show like he's done with DK and Frog.
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Character Battle V Score - 12/12 points
Current Prediction - Yuna vs. Roll
__Smurf__ | Posted 9/24/2006 2:03:55 PM | message detail
I'm pleased that we can finally get a good value on Ganon this year. He's go no one to run into that would present a problem with SFF!

Too bad the same can't be said for Tidus. -_-
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Smurf. The Cream of Knuckles Fanboyism.
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/24/2006 2:05:33 PM | message detail
Samus/Ganon had SFF last year. Why would things change this year?

Zelda > Samus, obviously!

(<<)

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"Master using it and you can have this."
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