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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 368

TheCruelAngel | Posted 9/23/2006 5:21:55 PM | message detail
Sonic sucks too much to boost!
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 9/23/2006 5:22:04 PM | message detail
Actually that Sonic trailor just made me like Sonic less, much like all his new games lately!

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Explicit Content
Philadelphia's Path to Cheer Up Emo Kids (1-1) - Next week @ SanFran 49ers.
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/23/2006 5:22:38 PM | message detail
Bestiality for the lose, sir.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/23/2006 5:34:13 PM | message detail
And yet you endorse Ganondorf?
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
KingBartz | Posted 9/23/2006 6:43:30 PM | message detail
lol that sonic trailer is cliched thru teh roof.
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The end of the world is nigh! Earth Life Remaining: 10 days
SC2K6: 10/11 Today's pick: Aeris Gainsborough
creativename | Posted 9/23/2006 7:07:26 PM | message detail
I'm very surprised that Marle managed to hang on with the day vote. That is baffling.
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Haste_2 | Posted 9/23/2006 7:07:51 PM | message detail
Just one more boring match tomorrow...at least, in my opinion.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Haste_2 | Posted 9/23/2006 7:11:40 PM | message detail
I'm very surprised that Marle managed to hang on with the day vote. That is baffling.

Well, Aeris had the morning vote...I guess it was too dominant in the morning for Aeris to keep on increasing her percentage throughout the day.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
shadow8021 | Posted 9/23/2006 7:11:56 PM | message detail
"VINCENT is going to beat GANON with 53%+!"

Fix'd
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Character Battle Score: 11/11
Today's Pick: Aeris Gainsborough
shadow8021 | Posted 9/23/2006 7:13:21 PM | message detail
And BTW, I bet that Marle ends up being the 3rd strongest in the division.
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Character Battle Score: 11/11
Today's Pick: Aeris Gainsborough
Keno316 | Posted 9/23/2006 7:15:09 PM | message detail
And BTW, I bet that Marle ends up being the 3rd strongest in the division.


Not that hard to do, really...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
Master Moltar | Posted 9/23/2006 7:16:10 PM | message detail
KOS-MOS will probably end up a little higher, but really, it isn't saying much.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Aeris vs. Marle - Bracket: Aeris - Vote: Aeris (10/11)
Haste_2 | Posted 9/23/2006 7:57:19 PM | message detail
If Marle ended up higher than KOS-MOS, odds would heavily favor Aeris over Zelda unless Zelda went up to Snake's level. Speaking of over-performances, could you guys imagine Aeris getting nearly 78% on Vyse?

Also, sign this petition pertaining to the GameFAQs Contests:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799

It'll be hard to keep the signs coming...

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/23/2006 8:10:37 PM | message detail
I'd take Zelda over either FF7 chick, with Tifa being noticeably stronger than Aeris.

Granted, that is just something I think and has no relevancy in terms of researching stats etc.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Haste_2 | Posted 9/23/2006 8:13:43 PM | message detail
At the very least I wouldn't want to discount Aeris being as strong as Tifa (or even slightly above). Aeris played a weaker Sonic, but 46.98% as opposed to 43.60%...it's something.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Haste_2 | Posted 9/23/2006 8:47:00 PM | message detail
Random statement: Sp2K5 had the best Round 1 of ANY contest for its size. 8/16 matches were within 60/40, and only 4/16 matches were truly gimmes to the casual bracket-maker. It was even difficult enough to knock the perfects down to, what, 20 or so perfects at the end of the round? We've never seen perfects weeded out that fast before.

Take this contest...we've had 12 matches so far and only 2 matches have been within 60/40 so far. 6 out of 12 have been a tripling or worse. Also, 7 out of these first 12 matches are going to have a prediction percentage of 80% or higher... it's no wonder there are so many perfects at this point. An upset could help, of course...

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Master Moltar | Posted 9/23/2006 8:55:19 PM | message detail
Triforce Division: Round 1 - Match 13 – (1)Yuna vs. (8)Roll

Moltar’s Analysis

Yuna
Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: 34th (23.66%)
Extrapolated Rank in 2005: 39th (19.93%) – Adjusted Value: 31st (23.92%)
Seed in 2003: 9
Seed in 2005: 6
Lost in 2003 to Knuckles in Round 1
Lost in 2005 to Ganondorf in Round 1

Yuna a number 1 seed for the females. I’m slightly impressed!

Roll
Game/Series Known From: Mega Man

Another Mega Man character…yep.

So let’s see, after Samus, Zelda and Tifa we have…Yuna? We have to go that far down to find a female decent enough for the 4th one seed not named Aeris? Oh well…

Even though Yuna isn’t all that strong, she has an easy match in Round 1. Roll will be nothing more than fodder, so the FFX star has nothing to worry about here. I mean, we’ve seen other Mega Man characters like Protoman and Dr. Wily, who I would take over Roll, and even based on their past performances, I wouldn’t take them over Yuna.

Also, you know your sad when Yuna is going to blow you out. Only a few more Round 1 female matches to go, yay!

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Yuna will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Yuna: 73% - Roll: 27%



Ulti’s Analysis

I'm not even going to dignify this with a response. **** Roll and her goddamn bolt crap in Mega Man 8. GIVE me the goddamn upgrades.

Nice to see Yunie as a 1, though. It's tough to defend her character given her crap voice acting and the laughing scene, but I maintain that her character in FFX is one of the finest RPG roles for any girl to ever grace the genre.

Prediction: Yuna with 68.24%



HM’s Analysis

Hurrah for Yuna getting a first seed! It’s nice to see three of my favorite female characters sporting the top seed in this bracket. Yuna is going up against Roll from the Mega Man series here – and this will be ugly. Yuna came out pretty strong last year with a nice boost from Final Fantasy X-2. This year, she’s got some help thanks to Kingdom Hearts II, even with her minute role, but that’s pretty much irrelevant thanks to how fodderific Roll is going to be.

Judging by how poorly Protoman performed in 2004, it’s safe to say that this one could approach the 70%+ range for Yuna. She’s already projected to get 63% on Protoman, and I wouldn’t suspect she’d be anywhere close to him. This is one of many easy wins for Yuna as she goes and plows through this division with ease.

Aitch Emm’s Bracket: Yuna

Aitch Emm’s Prediction: Yuna – 68% ; Roll – 32%

Aitch Emm’s Vote: Yuna



Yoblazer’s Analysis

This should be a very boring match between the last (and weakest) top seeded female and a very generic looking opponent. How many voters will even realize Roll is from Mega Man? She just looks like a background character to me. Yuna won't have any trouble here, but she's still forced to count the days until her inevitable match with Zelda.

My prediction: Yuna def. Roll (72-28)



Lopen’s Analysis

Another unpopular character from a popular franchise. I'm getting sick of seeing these. Amy Rose, Daisy, Roll. At least Zelda and Metal Gear spared us of these things!
Master Moltar | Posted 9/23/2006 8:55:55 PM | message detail
Okay, I see this as being a huge beating. Roll's a very minor character in the Mega Man games... I think her most notable role was the item shop chick in MM7/8? Otherwise she's just a punk who shows her face in the ending once in a while. The only reason I give Roll a chance to draw any votes is because of Marvel vs. Capcom 1 and 2 (and maybe that old Mega Man cartoon!). We know they were pretty popular games in 2002... right? Look at how well Servbot, Strider, and Morrigan did! Well, the heck with that. It had nowhere to go but down… and I imagine Roll's an even less popular pick than any of these. (Yes, even Servbot… he's got more novelty) Not to mention Servbot was probably flukish anyway.

Yuna could do way worse than I expect here. And if she does… I totally blame Marvel vs. Capcom! But she won't.

Lopen's prediction: Yuna with 80.01%



KH’s Analysis

lol x-stats history

Yuna

Summer 2003 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 34th Place [23.66%]

Summer 2005 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 31st Place [23.92%]

Yuna as a 1 seed? Geez, will wonders never cease? She really should have switched her division with Tifa's, though...

Still, it'll be nice to see the summoner finally win a match. Though she could have more respectable opposition...

Roll

lol N/A

LOL, indeed. Roll? Roll?! I could not believe my eyes when I saw Roll made this damn contest, and the now iconic "darn you cjay" sums up my feelings on her and this entire match. Not that I don't like Roll, of course -- she's damn good in the MML games, of which I'm a huge fanboy of...but other than that and MvC2, she's nothing but an NPC. No, she's worse -- she's an NPC that only appears in minor storyline scenes. Y'know that "I want to grow up to be a blitzball!" kid in FFX? Yeah, he's got more relevance to his game than Roll typically does to hers.

****ing female bracket.

Notable Releases Since Last Appearance

Yuna: Kingdom Hearts II (PS2)
Roll: Mega Man Legends (PS1), Marvel vs Capcom 2 (Multi)

Upcoming Releases

Yuna: N/A
Roll: N/A

I could see Yuna steamrolling Protoman. That's all ya need ta know for this match.

Karma Hunter's Vote: Roll. Hey, I like ya Yuna. I really do. But MML Roll holds a space near and dear to my heart, AND YOU'RE GONNA ****ING KILL HER

Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Yuna with 76.62% .

Another total guess, and I'm trying not to go too low thanks to my MML fanboyism.

Upset Potential: 0%

HAHAHAHAHAHA



Guest’s Analysis - XIII_Rocks

God damn time differences and the need for sleep :( I got lumbered with a fodder match. Ah, well. Anyway, this match gives us a chance to see the first ever female megaman character in a contest setting vs. ...random idiotic bleghgirl from FFX/-2. Yeah, fun.

I fully expect Roll to be much weaker than Protoman (who would be a fairly decent addition to the contest - I'm nominating him for the returners in the NRT this year), seeing as she doesn't have a massive role and most MM fans probably don't care for her. Yuna, on the other hand, is fresh off a cameo KH2.

KH2, the prequel to which propelled a Cloud who lost to Mario to all of a sudden beating LINK. Yeah, Roll has no chance of avoiding a quadrupling here, and after Nidoran's performance today, I expect Roll to look TERRIBLE in the stats.

Yuna with 82%, and I'm being generous.


Crew Consensus: Yuna wins. It's short, go ahead and skim it. 5 minutes, yadda yadda.
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/23/2006 8:57:51 PM | message detail
You know, I'm starting to think Yuna is going to surprise us with a very large percentage...
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caps
charmander6000 | Posted 9/23/2006 8:58:25 PM | message detail
it's no wonder there are so many perfects at this point. An upset could help, of course...

Well if you really think about it, why aren't there more perfects left? After 11 matches 1/10 brackets are still perfect and there have been what, two hyped matches according to the board and the lowest perdiction percent was 56.5%.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Master Moltar | Posted 9/23/2006 9:00:19 PM | message detail
Yuna 50% 7
Roll 50% 7
TOTAL VOTES 14

My bes this contest so far!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Yuna vs. Roll - Bracket: Yuna - Vote: Yuna (11/12)
Master Moltar | Posted 9/23/2006 9:00:34 PM | message detail
87.71% for Aeris, not bad...
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Yuna vs. Roll - Bracket: Yuna - Vote: Yuna (11/12)
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/23/2006 9:01:00 PM | message detail
lol roll

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/23/2006 9:02:00 PM | message detail
TOLD YOU! *cries in corner for a low oracle because everyone else did it*
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caps
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/23/2006 9:02:12 PM | message detail
Yuna 77.61% 253
Roll 22.39% 73
TOTAL VOTES 326

THAT'S THE SOUND OF AN UNDERRATED YUNA TO ME!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/23/2006 9:02:54 PM | message detail
Or a weak Roll!
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198
Master Moltar | Posted 9/23/2006 9:03:09 PM | message detail
That means Ganon > Male bracket

Believe It!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Yuna vs. Roll - Bracket: Yuna - Vote: Yuna (11/12)
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/23/2006 9:03:10 PM | message detail
GANONDORF OVER VINCENT WITH EASE BAY-BEEEEEEEEE
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/23/2006 9:03:22 PM | message detail
This is nearly Yuri-level weak!!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
HaRRicH | Posted 9/23/2006 9:03:54 PM | message detail
Roll was going to be pathetic anyway. She never had room to be strong...though, ya know, this weak would still be unexpected, almost no matter what value you put Yuna.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/23/2006 9:04:40 PM | message detail
Seriously people, what possessed you to think a 5-year old girl could get 25% on anything!?
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caps
GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/23/2006 9:05:35 PM | message detail
up to 79%+
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CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: Aeris Gainsborough with 74.00%
Master Moltar | Posted 9/23/2006 9:05:42 PM | message detail
Pushing 80%...

LOPEN WAS RIGHT?!?!?!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Yuna vs. Roll - Bracket: Yuna - Vote: Yuna (11/12)
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/23/2006 9:06:11 PM | message detail
Roll is absolutely pathetic. I don't know why anyone thought she would be anything different, and that's about the worst picture you could give her in terms of where her actual fanbase comes from (specifically MvC2 and MML to a lesser extent).

Also, I thought it was a given that G-dorf had always been slightly underrated...Rikku's not stronger than Yuna. Heck, I think Ganon 2k5 > Vincent 2k5.

Doesn't mean he'll win against Vinnie 2k6.
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Commit it to memory.
Who Cares? | Posted 9/23/2006 9:06:32 PM | message detail
Yeah, maybe Roll Casket or Roll.EXE could, but not 'Classic' Roll
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Kasumi (Septemeber 26th)
*Just 17 days until Tales of the Abyss*
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/23/2006 9:06:57 PM | message detail
OH MY GAWWWWWD
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/23/2006 9:07:07 PM | message detail
Oh he'll take care of 2006 Vincent without a problem, yo.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 9/23/2006 9:07:36 PM | message detail
Yuna 79.17% 996
Roll 20.83% 262
TOTAL VOTES 1258

Ouch and I thought Roll had some strength or any for that matter.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/23/2006 9:08:12 PM | message detail
Most casuals I know, mostly know Roll from MMBN. I'm sure she would be doing better with a pic from that or Legends. She looks like some random anime loli here.
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Demyx > Axel
Z1mZum owned me in the Guru Contest with his mad skills!
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/23/2006 9:09:12 PM | message detail
Yuna gets 80% on Roll, but Rikku gets 75% on Lenneth?

We better hope Lenneth is super strong because of her new games!
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caps
Garsha_III | Posted 9/23/2006 9:09:25 PM | message detail
*laughs at Roll*
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George Harrison > Flonne
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 9/23/2006 9:09:26 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
11-----4254-----97.9313587
10-----10100----95.4752475
9------11778----91.1614875
8------8749-----85.0154303
7------4702-----76.4355593
6------1928-----69.7095436
5------625------59.3600000
4------177------49.7175141
3------72-------25.0000000
2------67-------5.9701493
1------99-------2.0202020
0------95-------0.0000000

Overall prediction percentage: 87.71%

And the 0s go zero! For the first time this contest, we didn't lose any 0 brackets on a match. Although the perfects did quite a bit better than the average, some of them still got the match wrong.

Only one person fell off the Top 50 today. Tsukasora thought Marle had a chance to take out Aeris, but she didn't pull it off.
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I got pwnt by Z1mZum in the July 2006 Guru Contest.
Support Toadette for the Summer 2006 Contest!
GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/23/2006 9:10:31 PM | message detail
mmm % going down a bit
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CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: Yuna with 75.27%
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/23/2006 9:10:45 PM | message detail
Oh, oops.

Lenneth > Roll with 55%! Rikku > Yuna!
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caps
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/23/2006 9:11:23 PM | message detail
We better hope Lenneth is super strong because of her new games!

Nah, I'm perfectly fine with Yuna being beyond Rikku's capabilities, being a much better character and all.

I would have actually been interested to see Yuna/Ryu this year. darn you cjay
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Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/23/2006 9:12:02 PM | message detail
Nice percent comeback there <_<

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/23/2006 9:12:41 PM | message detail
Oh he'll take care of 2006 Vincent without a problem, yo.

My confidence in Ganon grows with each passing day. At this rate, I wouldn't be too surprised if he beats Vincent as easily as he did Auron last year, and I would be almost shocked if Vincent were to win that match without a struggle. Unfortunately, I doubt he'll get past Sonic, but every downed foe after Vincent will be like a glorious, fantasmic, chocolatey bonus.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/23/2006 9:14:06 PM | message detail
If he beats Vincent like he did Auron, Sonic is going down hard!!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Haste_2 | Posted 9/23/2006 9:24:09 PM | message detail
You know...I know nothing about Cortana, but I can see Joanna doubling Cortana tomorrow. *shrugs* She's not -that- big of a character, is she? And just...look at her.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/23/2006 9:28:49 PM | message detail
Unless Aeris got a massive boost, what she did to Marle doesn't speak much of any big-time FF7/CT SFF. Marle being above Lavos is believeable, but there's a limit to how close she can get to Frog...unless CT fans will just vote for ANYTHING, which, again, doesn't lend itself to large SFF.

There's also the matter that any big-time FFVII/CT SFF in the Games Contest places CT *much* closer to OoT...not impossible, but considering that the game barely beat LttP I'm not buying it. OoT has always been a class above LttP here.

Vincent/Crono being pure rSFF seems less likely going by this, but a boost caused by the AC leak still seems possible. Allotting for such a thing (i.e. making a pure guess) and measuring Ganon through Summer Diablo 2k5 gives G-dorf the slight advantage through my stats. G-dorf could be stronger, but Vincent may not have been overrated at all...I'm counting on DoC to do the bulk of this, and I think we'll be surprised how strong Vincent ends up in the stats, whether or not he loses that match.

If it really was the AC leak that did that much, though...heh, Aeris is going to kill Zelda. =D
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Commit it to memory.