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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 368

AmazingKirby | Posted 9/23/2006 9:02:57 AM | message detail
If these high votals are for crappy female characters, just imagine the male Saturday votals!

Riku/Yoshi hitting 150k!
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/23/2006 9:42:48 AM | message detail
Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four ends when she faces Lara.
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Hi-ho, Hi-ho, Z1m Zum, Z1m Zum...our guru champ.
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/23/2006 9:45:50 AM | message detail
More like when she faces Kasumi.
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Haste_2 | Posted 9/23/2006 9:54:56 AM | message detail
Yeah, I'd presume Marle to be stronger than Lavos. Not by a huge amount, but I'd wager she puts 55+% on him without SFF.

That's how much stronger -Frog- is than Lavos...and considering in 2K5 Snake > 2K4 Snake I doubt LSnake was weaker when facing Lavos. Now that's not to say Marle can't be inbetween Lavos and Frog.

I'm not saying that Marle is necessarily getting SFF'd here, but I'm not automatically ruling it out because she got 30% on Aeris.

Yeah, it's certainly possible that there's SFF to the extent of Cloud/Auron, though we'll have no way of knowing...

To tell you the truth, I thought there would be SFF in Aeris vs. Marle, but not Aeris vs. Frog if that had taken place. I just thought Marle was just so worthless and hated among the CT fanbase that she'd be very vulnerable to that.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
cyko | Posted 9/23/2006 10:45:56 AM | message detail
hmph. while noone was paying attention, Marle started raising her percentage again. in the past 70 minutes Marle has gone from 29.27% to 29.46% while pulling in almost 34% on that last five minute update. if this keeps up, she very well could finish over 30%. that's not a huge deal, but it's gotta be some kind of moral victory for Marle if it happens. that, and it's very odd to see a Chrono Trigger character's percentage rise during the day.

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/23/2006 10:53:42 AM | message detail
At least we are on pace for 116k, better than the last two days.

Well, it's a Saturday featuring a FFVII character. Vote totals galore! Vincent/Ganondorf has the potential to be insanely high.

And again, we're assuming that Chrono Trigger/FFVII SFF is minimal, even though we know that there are TONS of people who like both. I think it's kinda absurd to think that the two biggest RPGs on this site don't share a fanbase.

It's absurd to think that FF and Zelda don't share a huge fanbase either, and I've never seen anyone call for SFF in any match they've ever shared.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/23/2006 10:58:12 AM | message detail
Based on Aeris 2003, Marle currently stands at 19.33% on BL, around the level of CATS and slightly above Terra.

Based on Tifa 2005, Marle would stand at 19.78% on BL, almost at the fodder line.

Basically, any amount of SFF and Marle is non-fodder. It's amazing to see how well Chrono Trigger fans seem to support its characters and how poorly FFVI fans support theirs. Marle is 4th place at best on the hierarchy, and she could possibly beat any FFVI character not named Kefka, and even then, she'd be expected to get 43.55% on him.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/23/2006 11:01:45 AM | message detail
Wouldn't Marle destroy CATS and Terra?
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/23/2006 11:08:35 AM | message detail
Well, CATS is likely overrated based on Master Chief, but she's not a full percent over Terra based on Aeris 2003. Of course, it's possible she's gone up since then.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/23/2006 11:12:44 AM | message detail
It'd be awesome if Marle was rSFFing Aeris. ¬_¬

Then Aeris could totally beat Zelda. ¬_¬


.. Why? It's rSFF.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198
Janus5000 | Posted 9/23/2006 11:14:19 AM | message detail
Because that means Aeris would normally be doing better.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/23/2006 11:20:05 AM | message detail
I was looking at it as if Aeris beats Zelda for sure.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198
Tediz247 | Posted 9/23/2006 11:30:49 AM | message detail
Aeris is actually losing a bit of percent here with the day vote. If she can't gain percent in an SFF match against a character from a game that traditionally isn't that good with the day vote, I shudder to think what Zelda will do to her.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/23/2006 11:31:30 AM | message detail
But don't think because Zelda will do well with the day vote that she'll win. That's not what this means.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
TheCruelAngel | Posted 9/23/2006 11:33:19 AM | message detail
Zelda: 57%
Aeris: 43%

Yes! Believe! (I can hope!)
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 9/23/2006 11:34:42 AM | message detail
Tediz, this isn't an SFF match.
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/23/2006 11:36:17 AM | message detail
BOLD PREDICTION!

Zelda beats Aeris by more than Snake beat Aeris in 2k2

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
TheCruelAngel | Posted 9/23/2006 11:37:03 AM | message detail
I can get behind that!
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/23/2006 11:37:19 AM | message detail
Psh, Aeris would whomp Vivi.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Keno316 | Posted 9/23/2006 11:50:43 AM | message detail
If these high votals are for crappy female characters, just imagine the male Saturday votals!


...As far as female characters go, today's lot is from a more than popular set of games in this site...so they'd hardly fall into the "crappy" category.


On that thought, its great to see Marle doing great here. Nice to see CT's fanbase still holds strong behind their characters.

Of course...considering Frog and Magus...I wouldn't be surprised to see Marle do a little worst if she were to return next year...

But still...I hope this is all Marle's strength, and that Aeris manages to perform decently on Zelda. And that Zelda doesn't get SFFed by Samus...so Marle true strength looks good in the final result.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/23/2006 11:52:35 AM | message detail
Of course...considering Frog and Magus

People need to learn the difference between dropping (which they didn't) and being exposed (which they were).
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 9/23/2006 11:53:13 AM | message detail

Zelda beats Aeris by more than Snake beat Aeris in 2k2


Joke post? Maybe if you switch Zelda and Aeris?
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
Master Moltar | Posted 9/23/2006 12:25:15 PM | message detail
Alright, alright, I'll admit it...

I underestimated Marle.

*cries in a corner*
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Aeris vs. Marle - Bracket: Aeris - Vote: Aeris (10/11)
Garsha_III | Posted 9/23/2006 12:37:57 PM | message detail
I too underestimated Marle. I expected Aeris to triple her. She should get another chance in these contests.
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George Harrison > Flonne
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/23/2006 1:03:48 PM | message detail
It's too bad she can only manage a 7 seed in a female divison, so we'll never see her again.

Though I'm surprised she's winning the day vote over Aeris. *insert "OMG she's only winning the day vote if she wins updates!!111"
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AmazingKirby | Posted 9/23/2006 1:06:22 PM | message detail
And there she goes with her 36% update!!
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transience | Posted 9/23/2006 1:10:58 PM | message detail
..CT winning the day vote?

well, this is unexpected.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
TheCruelAngel | Posted 9/23/2006 1:12:13 PM | message detail
MORE LIKE AERIS SUX LOL

...This is impressive my Marle, though.
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
therealmnm | Posted 9/23/2006 1:24:32 PM | message detail
It's absurd to think that FF and Zelda don't share a huge fanbase either, and I've never seen anyone call for SFF in any match they've ever shared.

Who said there wasn't? And what does that have to do with my post? I was pointing that out to the people who say that Chrono Trigger and FFVII have separate fanbases. Or are you trying to argue that FF and Zelda share more of a fanbase than CT and FF? Regardless, I don't see the point of it. All I was saying is that CT and FFVII probably overlap a lot, being the 2 most popular RPGs on the site, and just because certain CT entities stand up to FFVII, it doesn't mean ALL CT entities stand up to FFVII. Of course we have no proof yet, but I'm still not totally convinced there's no SFF between the CT/FFVII matches. Of course we're not talking major SFF, but I could see some of the matches possibly being skewed by a few percent.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/23/2006 1:26:15 PM | message detail
I'm just saying that a large overlap does not guarantee SFF at all, as we've seen between FF and Zelda. Heck, Mario could technically get SFF against anything.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
transience | Posted 9/23/2006 1:29:17 PM | message detail
the idea of SFF is that the fanbase overlaps and prefer one of the two more than usual. I know that you know this, but we've yet to see any evidence of such a thing with CT and FF7. if this is indeed SFF (or rSFF, whatever), it's not doing very much.

pretty much anything popular shares a fanbase. what matters is that the vast majority of the two fanbases side with one over the other.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
therealmnm | Posted 9/23/2006 1:29:36 PM | message detail
As for Marle having strength, I always considered it. I never understood why people wrote her off and said that Chrono Trigger fans don't care for her. Chrono Trigger is a very character-centric game, both storywise and gameplay-wise. Unlike FFVI, it only has a core set of characters, and they all get lots of screentime for the most part. Plus they also stand out from each other, both storywise and in battle. Throw in the highly appealing Toriyama artwork, and I don't really see any of the CT characters being total fodder.
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Vote for Soma Cruz
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therealmnm | Posted 9/23/2006 1:39:00 PM | message detail
*sigh* I've already said numerous times that sharing a fanbase doesn't guarantee SFF. But it also doesn't mean there wasn't any SFF just because we think the match "looks right". Again, I'm not talking anything drastic... but just because Marle gets 30%, it doesn't mean that there wasn't any SFF in the match. We don't really have any proof either way, but I'm not exactly shutting the door on it.

30% on Aeris puts Marle at Terra's level? Frankly, I would take Marle to destroy Terra Ulti style.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/23/2006 1:43:27 PM | message detail
Assuming Aeris hasn't boosted since AC and KH2

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/23/2006 1:44:47 PM | message detail
Ulti style? Well, as it stands, Marle is at 19.58% based on 2003 Aeris, meaning she beats Terra with 52.37% of the vote. To get to Ulti-level destruction, Marle is approximately equal to Kefka, whose value would get 56.89% based on where Marle is now. Either way, I can't see her beating him with ease, if she wins at all.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Who Cares? | Posted 9/23/2006 1:47:00 PM | message detail
I'm interested in seeing if Marle ends up outperforming whatever KOS-MOS does next round.

KOS is projected to get 32.46% on 2k3 Aeris & 31.72% on 2k5 Tifa.
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Kasumi (Septemeber 26th)
*Just 17 days until Tales of the Abyss*
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/23/2006 1:48:43 PM | message detail
Marle and Amy totally should have been switched!
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therealmnm | Posted 9/23/2006 1:49:10 PM | message detail
You can play with stats and make it look right if you want. Marle vs. Terra, I see an Ulti-style blowout! I don't care where it "puts her". :)
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/23/2006 1:49:11 PM | message detail
People are calling for a Tifa/Vyse situation next round in that match, which wouldn't really surprise me. I'm not saying it's a sure thing, but Final Fantasy VII will be infinitely preferred to any RPG (except Chrono Trigger, apparently).
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/23/2006 1:49:44 PM | message detail
Marle vs. Terra, I see an Ulti-style blowout!

And I'll call SFF!
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
trannyscience | Posted 9/23/2006 1:53:07 PM | message detail
Marle beats Terra with ease. it'd be far more than Ulti-style.
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xyzzy
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/23/2006 1:54:48 PM | message detail
Well, for an easier idea of what to expect from Terra/Marle...

Aeris vs. Dante: Percentages
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
trannyscience | Posted 9/23/2006 1:55:10 PM | message detail
Aeris with... uh, 53%.
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xyzzy
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/23/2006 1:57:36 PM | message detail
Then Terra gets 26.79% on Aeris. That means Marle wins with 55.11% assuming no SFF, which is possible (Crono/Kefka anyone?)
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/23/2006 1:59:09 PM | message detail
Oh, and that also means that Aeris beats 2005 Zelda with 51.72%! I can live with that!
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
trannyscience | Posted 9/23/2006 1:59:48 PM | message detail
yeah, I'd believe CT/FF6 SFF before CT/FF7, especially considering how FF6 characters are weak as it is.
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xyzzy
therealmnm | Posted 9/23/2006 2:02:07 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
therealmnm | Posted 9/23/2006 2:02:56 PM | message detail
Never mind... Direct matchup... :(
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Vote for Soma Cruz
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/23/2006 2:59:22 PM | message detail
Hmmm...I just realized that none of Aeris's 5 wins up to this point have been less than 60% of the vote. That'll change if she beats Zelda. If not, it probably won't, heh.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Keno316 | Posted 9/23/2006 3:09:40 PM | message detail
Zelda will completely run over Aeris with a Mack Truck...so we won't have to worry about the %s there.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB