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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 367

THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/22/2006 3:37:17 PM | message detail
Amy has taken off a full percent in the last two hours. Keep it up!
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/22/2006 3:42:45 PM | message detail
The more she takes off the better!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
wavedash101 | Posted 9/22/2006 3:44:13 PM | message detail
The more she takes off the better!

Why???

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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
H__RR____H | Posted 9/22/2006 3:46:04 PM | message detail
It makes Sonic look better the higher she goes, and the higher Sonic is the more impressive Ganon will look when he breaks 60+% on him!

</HM-exaggerated>
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/22/2006 3:46:21 PM | message detail
My Crew prediction was at 60%. I need to at least maintain second!!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
trannyscience | Posted 9/22/2006 3:46:32 PM | message detail
sheesh, this is gonna pass Terra/Kerrigan with some hours to spare.
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xyzzy
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 9/22/2006 3:48:17 PM | message detail
Grrr... KOS needs to get back up to 68.

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Explicit Content
Philadelphia's Path to Cheer Up Emo Kids (1-1) - Next week @ SanFran 49ers.
GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/22/2006 4:56:56 PM | message detail
What EC said.
But 66.89
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CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: KOS-MOS with 66.89%
Garsha_III | Posted 9/22/2006 5:03:27 PM | message detail
I don't like Marle very much, but I feel she got screwed in the bracket. She might have done something if was placed at another spot.
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George Harrison > Flonne
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/22/2006 5:05:06 PM | message detail
Yeah, we said that about Sheena and Carmen, too.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Who Cares? | Posted 9/22/2006 5:09:59 PM | message detail
^^^
Hey, Sheena against any of the 4/5 seeds (sans The Boss) would've created at least one more interesting match.
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Kasumi (Septemeber 26th)
*Just 18 days until Tales of the Abyss*
trannyscience | Posted 9/22/2006 5:14:08 PM | message detail
it's weird how Sheena is seemingly stronger than any FF6 playable character. I wonder who I'd pick in such a match.
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xyzzy
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/22/2006 5:15:34 PM | message detail
Based off of KOS-MOS 2005, Amy Rose currently stands at 14.64% on BL, slightly below Kerrigan 2005 (and rising! Go Amy!). I saw people around here saying Amy would probably beat Roll.

Assuming Amy = Roll as of right now, Yuna wins that match with 71.95%, assuming her value is perfectly accurate. She really only has room to go up.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/22/2006 5:17:19 PM | message detail
it's weird how Sheena is seemingly stronger than any FF6 playable character. I wonder who I'd pick in such a match.

Ehh...She may be stronger than Celes, but Terra? I doubt it. Terra is actually somewhat close to the fodder line. Of course, The Boss may be non-fodder, too, and that will make Celes look a little better. We just don't know yet.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
charmander6000 | Posted 9/22/2006 5:25:08 PM | message detail
Match XII: (2) Aeris Gainsborough vs. (7) Marle

Contest History

Aeris Gainsborough


Summer 2002
Defeated Kasumi, 62.73% - 37.27%
Defeated Tina Armstrong, 76.93% - 23.07%
Lost to Solid Snake, 43.46% - 56.54%
Ranked: 12th

Summer 2003
Defeated Sora, 66.66% - 33.34%
Defeated Master Chief, 60.15% - 39.85%
Lost to Sonic the Hedgehog, 46.98% - 53.02%
Ranked: 15th

Marle

No Previous Contest Matches

Analysis:

Aeris is from Final Fantasy VII and is remembered by one of the most known spoilers in gaming history. Aeris is considered to be the biggest contest snub and is the only character to have made the sweet 16 one contest and miss the next. During the times she was in the contest she showed that she has what it takes to take on the near elites. Marle is from Chrono Trigger and even though the characters have done well people aren’t really looking into Marle too much.

Out of all of the 2 seeds Marle could have been against it had to be against Aeris. At least with Kairi, Peach and Lara she would’ve had a small chance, but with Aeris she has none. Even though Aeris has been out of the contest spotlight for a couple of years it wouldn’t take too much in order to defeat Marle. Using lol x-stats she is expected to break 60% against Frog and one would think Marle would be weaker. So unless Aeris took a really bad drop (which looks very doubtful by looking at other FFVII characters performance) Marle won’t be touching Aeris.

One thing that is in question is how much Aeris would be able to SFF Marle. FFVII is part of new Square while CT is part of old Square. What difference does it make; well old Square was on Nintendo consoles while new Square is on Sony consoles. The only SFF these two characters share were from the people that left Nintendo consoles for Sony consoles because of Square’s move which means that there may be some SFF, but it won’t be as bad as say Nintendo SFF or Crono/Kefka.

Aeris should have no problem doubling Marle and is more than able to break 70% and could push as far as tripling her. This is just the next stepping stone to Zelda/Aeris and even though both of their first round matches mean nothing underperforming could very well mean death at the Division Finals.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Aeris Gainsborough over Marle

charmander6000’s Prediction: Aeris wins, 70.62% - 29.38%

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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
trannyscience | Posted 9/22/2006 5:28:42 PM | message detail
a small chance? I'd pick her over Lara in a heartbeat and Kairi in two heartbeats. Peach would be a struggle for me.
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xyzzy
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/22/2006 5:31:33 PM | message detail
Kairi/Marle would be a tough call for me, I think.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Draco1214 | Posted 9/22/2006 5:32:23 PM | message detail
I'd take Kairi with ease, personally.
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Character Battle V Score - 10/10 points
Current Prediction - KOS-MOS vs. Amy Rose
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/22/2006 5:37:15 PM | message detail
Oh, and for as little as I think of Peach, I wouldn't dare take Marle over her.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Garsha_III | Posted 9/22/2006 5:40:39 PM | message detail
*Can see Peach winning against Marle 50.05-49.95... twice*
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George Harrison > Flonne
trannyscience | Posted 9/22/2006 5:41:11 PM | message detail
well, I think Marle would be closer to Frog than Kairi is to Riku and Frog won. it's just a matter of how big a deal KH2 is.
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xyzzy
pete59902 | Posted 9/22/2006 5:42:43 PM | message detail
Amy should be winning, I've already lost one point. :(
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i was wondering how much ram would i need to make my games accelerate at top speed - doubleg392
KingBartz | Posted 9/22/2006 6:07:56 PM | message detail
How could you expect Amy to win? Still, it should be a lot closer than this.
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The end of the world is nigh! Earth Life Remaining: 11 days
SC2K6: 9/10 Today's pick: KOS-MOS
Master Moltar | Posted 9/22/2006 8:21:59 PM | message detail
Triforce Division: Round 1 - Match 12 – (2)Aeris Gainsborough vs. (7)Marle

Moltar’s Analysis

Aeris
Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy
Extrapolated Rank in 2002: 12th (30.62%)
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: 15th (32.81%)
Seed in 2002: 11
Seed in 2003: 11
Lost in 2002 to Solid Snake in Round 3
Lost in 2003 to Sonic in Round 3

Back from her absense, Aeris returns to the Contest scene.

Marle
Game/Series Known From: Chrono Trigger

In place of Magus and Frog, we get Marle! Ah well…

Aeris, Aeris, Aeris. It took you three years and a huge handicap, but you managed to find your way back into a GameFAQs Contest! Aeris fans, you should be proud. After years of putting in the wrong form of her name, you finally got it right for once and she came back.

Her first opponent in her glorious Contest return is against Marle. Now, Marle may be from Chrono Trigger, giving her some strength, but she would need to be stronger than Magus and Frog to win. Do you see that happening? Well, I don’t. With FF7:AC and KH2 behind her, Aeris has no reason to fall off the radar from 2003. She should be around as strong as she was back then, which is scary. Who knew that someone so *SPOILER DELETED* could still put up a fight?

Oh yeah, and obligatory “There will most likely be SFF” statement. Have fun reading this 6 more times!

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Aeris will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Aeris: 76% - Marle: 24%



Ulti’s Analysis

I'm not too big a fan of Marle, but seeing her first match be in an unwinnable SFF scenario is kind of a disappointment. There are a lot of spots on the female side where Marle would have been a hard character to choose against with being the female lead of CT and all.

Prediction: Aeris with 70.01%



HM’s Analysis

It’s nice to see that Chrono Trigger was able to get some female representation, but it sucks that she was wasted to Aerith. She could probably beat down more than half of the other female contestants without a problem. Unfortunately, we have to see her get a SFF beat down courtesy of the Flower Girl.

What will be most interesting about this match is seeing how Marle performs. In all likelihood, this’ll be a big blowout, but if Marle can keep it pretty respectable it would be really good for Zelda, I think. Aerith cannot really afford to disappoint and come out with something way under expectations – depending on how high those expectations are. It is a SFF match, but Square SFF usually isn’t as severe are Nintendo SFF.

Aitch Emm’s Bracket: Aerith Gainsborough

Aitch Emm’s Prediction: Aerith Gainsborough – 78% ; Marle – 22%

Aitch Emm’s Vote: Aerith Gainsborough



Yoblazer’s Analysis

Finally, the last of the top four female entrants is ready to make her long awaited return after an over THREE YEAR absence. Welcome back, Aeris! Luckily for Ms. Gainsborough, she's got some easy competition in her first match back. I don't know much about Chrono Trigger or Marle, but I know weaksauce when I see it, and let me just tell you: weaksauce.

Everyone will essentially be shooting in the dark when it comes to predictions here, as not only are we unsure just how weak Marle will be, but the possible SFF is also tough to gauge. Of course, I'm going to go about my own semi-dumbassed way of trying to figure it out. Let's see... Tifa beat Ivy Valentine with about 76%. While I doubt Aeris is quite as strong as Tifa, Marle is probably weaker than Ivy, and I think Aeris could get some SFF, so I'll tack on a few percentage points and call it a day. Once again, welcome back, you sexy thang!

My prediction: Aeris Gainsborough def. Marle (78-22)
Master Moltar | Posted 9/22/2006 8:22:16 PM | message detail
Lopen’s Analysis

So they took the two entrants I hate most in the bracket, and stuck them together! I don't know whether I should be ecstatic that one is guaranteed to lose, or be nauseous because one is guaranteed to win. Well, I guess I'll be optimistic and be ecstatic!

Yay Marle's gonna lose, Marle's gonna lose! (You can feel the joy!) Yeah, there really isn't that much room for debate here. All signs point to Aeris getting by the likes of Frog or Magus without much trouble. Why should Marle be more popular than them? I'd be damned surprised… and she shouldn't. Nobody likes her! She even loses to Aeris in the all important battle of TJF! You know what? As much as I love to talk about these two… instead of continuing this analysis (I summed it up in a couple of sentences anyway!), it's time for my Guilty Gear related rant of this contest! Fire up da beat!

Yo, Marle, you just a bag full of suck. Dizzy is… not a bag of suck! Word to your mother.

… what the hell was that? See what a match of this crappiness:character ratio did? It robbed me of everything… even my ranting and rapping skills! Don't worry, I'll do a good rap on a match later, I promise!

Lopen's prediction: Aeris with 77.18%



KH’s Analysis

lol x-stats history

Aeris Gainsborough

Summer 2002 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 12th Place [30.62%]

Summer 2003 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 15th Place [32.81%]

The most glaring snub in the Contest's history returns, and her reward is a very real chance at making the Final Four of this contest. Good things come to those who wait, I suppose?

Marle

lol N/A

Another waste. Marle could have caused havoc as the 7 seed for any other 2 seed, but in this match she'll be doing her damndest to just avoid a dosage of Square SFF. I, for one, think she'll be successful...for the most part. Then again, she's probably not packing all that much strength to begin with...

Notable Releases Since Last Appearance

Aeris Gainsborough: Kingdom Hearts II (PS2)
Marle: N/A

Upcoming Releases

Aeris Gainsborough: N/A
Marle: N/A

Not much to discuss in this match...um...the picture might help Marle a lil'? Meh. =/

Karma Hunter's Vote: Aeris. Welcome back.

Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Aeris Gainsborough with 71.94%.

Total guess here. Aeris hasn't been seen in years, and Marle is completely untested. Still, I'd expect Marle to be much worse than Frog, and she's looking at some potential SFF here.

Upset Potential: 0%

Nope.



Guest’s Analysis - BeTheMan

Admittedly, this is not one of the sexier first-round matchups, as there is very little doubt over how the match is going to turn out. Nevertheless, there are a couple of factors at play here that could prove to be important in later matchups, so Aeris/Marle is well worth a bit of analysis.

Aeris holds the distinction of being one of the most impressive non-Noble Nine characters in contest history. She made Sweet 16 runs in 2002 and 2003, scored sizeable victories over Sora and Master Chief, and turned in impressive performances in her losses to Snake and Sonic. Interestingly enough, Aeris couldn't muster enough support to land a spot in either of the last two character battles. This could be a sign that Ms. Gainsborough isn't quite as formidable as she once was.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/22/2006 8:23:04 PM | message detail
Still, Aeris has a couple of major advantages heading into her first round matchup. In the past year, she has made notable appearances in Advent Children and Kingdom Hearts 2. If nothing else, this should serve to make her character relevant again. Aeris also has the good fortune of being matched up against a Square character, and since FF7 is the crown jewel of the Square universe, Aeris should benefit from any SFF that shows up during this match.

We haven't seen Marle appear in a contest before now, so it's hard to say exactly how strong she should be...but since four other Chrono Trigger characters have shown up in past contests, we can make an educated guess. Crono has a solid standing in the Noble Nine, and while Magus and Frog have turned in mixed performances, they are both safely above the fodder line. Marle is almost certainly weaker than the aforementioned trio, but she's probably not as far off as some would expect. Lavos fared only 5% worse than Frog did against Liquid Snake, and it's difficult to imagine Lavos being more popular than Marle.

If I were to make an estimate of what Aeris and Marle should look like in the X-Stats (based off of Link at 50%), I would slot Aeris somewhere around 33%, and Marle somewhere around 22%. If that were the case, this match would project out to a doubling for Aeris. Of course, since Aeris doubled Sora in 2003, and Sora > Frog/Riku > Marle, we know that these numbers need an adjustment for SFF. To me, the amount of SFF that we wind up seeing should clue us in what we should expect from the FF and KH crew down the road. If Aeris stomps Marle into the ground, Square's elite have a chance to make some serious noise down the road. If Aeris struggles to break 70%, Squareheads should get their panic buttons ready. With that in mind...

Prediction: Aeris with 74.25%



Crew Consensus: Aeris wins in the 70% range.
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/22/2006 8:34:49 PM | message detail
Marle weaker than Ivy? o_O
We're talking about Marle from Chrono Trigger, right?
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caps
KingBartz | Posted 9/22/2006 8:35:56 PM | message detail
I'm really set on a blowout of bigger proportions, 80% range for sure. Marle is maybe one of the least well known CT characters, as well as the least likable(IMO). Combine that with slight square SFF and you have a blowout.

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The end of the world is nigh! Earth Life Remaining: 11 days, 24 minutes.
SC2K6: 9/10 Today's pick: KOS-MOS
MastaHealer | Posted 9/22/2006 8:38:04 PM | message detail
In no universe does Marle lose to Ivy.
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*is wavedash101*
Satai gets Biggest Surprise EVER Award! ^_^
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/22/2006 8:38:29 PM | message detail
Least well known? O_o
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caps
KingBartz | Posted 9/22/2006 8:40:42 PM | message detail
come on

Crono > Magus > Frog > Luca > Ayla > Marle > the robot guy i forgot his name.
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The end of the world is nigh! Earth Life Remaining: 11 days
SC2K6: 9/10 Today's pick: KOS-MOS
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/22/2006 8:42:00 PM | message detail
Marle is one of the first characters you meet, and how many people that haven't played CT are going to know some characters more than others? o_O
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caps
KingBartz | Posted 9/22/2006 8:45:07 PM | message detail
okay, i meant memorable characters.

Marle is a generic female support character.
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The end of the world is nigh! Earth Life Remaining: 11 days
SC2K6: 9/10 Today's pick: KOS-MOS
MastaHealer | Posted 9/22/2006 8:45:20 PM | message detail
Ozzie>Magus>Robo=Frog>Crono>Ayla>Lucca>Marle
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*is wavedash101*
Satai gets Biggest Surprise EVER Award! ^_^
charmander6000 | Posted 9/22/2006 8:47:35 PM | message detail
Crono > Magus > Frog > Luca > Ayla > Marle > the robot guy i forgot his name

In terms of contest strength.

Crono > Magus > Frog > Ayla > Marle > Robo > Lucca
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/22/2006 8:49:42 PM | message detail
Well, that makes more sense.
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caps
KingBartz | Posted 9/22/2006 8:50:37 PM | message detail
how old is that poll?
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The end of the world is nigh! Earth Life Remaining: 11 days
SC2K6: 9/10 Today's pick: KOS-MOS
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/22/2006 8:53:52 PM | message detail
Charmander's inequality seems agreeable to me. Although I can't see Robo and Lucca being that far apart.

AYLA FOR 2k7!!!!

TuRtLe
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I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
KingBartz | Posted 9/22/2006 8:57:38 PM | message detail
KOS-MOS with 67% of brackets.
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The end of the world is nigh! Earth Life Remaining: 11 days
SC2K6: 9/10 Today's pick: KOS-MOS
cyko | Posted 9/22/2006 8:58:37 PM | message detail
KOS-MOS with 73% of the brackets!!!

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
Draco1214 | Posted 9/22/2006 8:58:48 PM | message detail
KOS-MOS with 58% of the brackets.
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Character Battle V Score - 11/11 points
Current Prediction - Aeris Gainsborough vs. Marle
Master Moltar | Posted 9/22/2006 9:00:14 PM | message detail
Aeris Gainsborough 48.39% 15
Marle 51.61% 16
TOTAL VOTES 31

Snap...
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Aeris vs. Marle - Bracket: Aeris - Vote: Aeris (10/11)
Master Moltar | Posted 9/22/2006 9:00:32 PM | message detail
KOS-MOS with 71.23%, not bad...
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Aeris vs. Marle - Bracket: Aeris - Vote: Aeris (10/11)
KingBartz | Posted 9/22/2006 9:00:37 PM | message detail
Aeris Gainsborough 54.17% 26
Marle 45.83% 22

OMG TEH STRENGTH
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The end of the world is nigh! Earth Life Remaining: 11 days
SC2K6: 9/10 Today's pick: KOS-MOS
KingBartz | Posted 9/22/2006 9:01:33 PM | message detail
Aeris Gainsborough 71.28% 273
Marle 28.72% 110

Aeris can only gain from here.
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The end of the world is nigh! Earth Life Remaining: 11 days
SC2K6: 9/10 Today's pick: KOS-MOS
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/22/2006 9:01:56 PM | message detail
Does ANYTHING from FF7 not get anti-voted early?

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/22/2006 9:02:30 PM | message detail
I think it's more Marle being awesome and Aeris sucking than anti-voting.
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caps
KingBartz | Posted 9/22/2006 9:02:49 PM | message detail
nope.

FF7 ussually wins the day vote, yes?
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The end of the world is nigh! Earth Life Remaining: 11 days
SC2K6: 9/10 Today's pick: KOS-MOS
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/22/2006 9:03:01 PM | message detail
Holy crap there's a new match!


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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
KingBartz | Posted 9/22/2006 9:04:34 PM | message detail
oh, and the perfects didn't fare too well this time.
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The end of the world is nigh! Earth Life Remaining: 10 days
SC2K6: 10/11 Today's pick: Aeris Gainsborough