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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 367

UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/21/2006 3:44:59 PM | message detail
The only thing that worries me is Ganon's 54% on Auron. Everything else lines up with Vincent whipping some ass.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI
longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/21/2006 3:45:36 PM | message detail
Lopen and EC would actually pick a great upset there if they followed suite, tranman! Dante > pre-KH2 Auron would be close no doubt, but Dante has a good enough fanbase for him to pull away and pick up the win.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/21/2006 3:47:02 PM | message detail
Everything else lines up with Vincent whipping some ass.

No, it doesn't. The only thing even in Vincent's favor is the fact that he has a really crappy game that didn't sell well and Advent Children. If there is any sort of Nintendo boost still hanging around, Ganon has something in his favor to combat that.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
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Draco1214 | Posted 9/21/2006 3:47:20 PM | message detail
Also, on the subject of Kirby, I think he's overrated and he'll be exposed by Zero. Look at the vote totals for Kirby/Bowser. 83k -- the lowest of the entire contest, behind even Lloyd/Wesker. And he was behind Solid ****.
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Character Battle V Score - 9/9 points
Current Prediction - Terra Branford vs. Sarah Kerrigan
trannyscience | Posted 9/21/2006 3:47:34 PM | message detail
we're talking about the same Dante, right?

Auron 64.47% 70199
Miles "Tails" Prower 35.53% 38685
TOTAL VOTES 108884

Miles "Tails" Prower 42.6% 33472
Dante 57.4% 45109
TOTAL VOTES 78581

times have changed since 2003/4, but not that much.
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xyzzy
longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/21/2006 3:47:51 PM | message detail
Yes, we know Magus was overrated; there were plenty of signs present that told us he was overrated

We didn't have crap until Knuckles exposed him far as I'm concerned. So he gets SFF'd up a bit by Crono and loses to some upper midcarders? Whats so overrated bout that?
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/21/2006 3:48:54 PM | message detail
Speaking of Auron...who do you think is stronger, pre-KH2 Auron or pre-KH Squall? I ask this because my gut tells me to go with Auron being stronger. And if KH was the one thing that separated the two, Auron -- with his great performance in KH2 -- could potentially overtake him, and possibly every other Non-Noble Square character.

Auron and Squall are just wasted in this bracket, sadly.
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Commit it to memory.
trannyscience | Posted 9/21/2006 3:48:57 PM | message detail
*waits for the inevitable Sam Fisher / Luca Blight comparison*
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xyzzy
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/21/2006 3:49:03 PM | message detail
We didn't have crap until Knuckles exposed him far as I'm concerned. So he gets SFF'd up a bit by Crono and loses to some upper midcarders? Whats so overrated bout that?

Luca Blight and Sam Fisher were sounding off alarms that a couple of us (Leonhart and I!!) picked up on and ended up taking Squall over Magus in 2005. Sure, no one expected him to lose to Knuckles, but a few of us had him done in round 2, which was just unheard of around here.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/21/2006 3:49:22 PM | message detail
times have changed since 2003/4, but not that much.

Do know that Tails' value in 2004 is based off of his match with Dante, and Dante's value is based off of his match with Sonic. Remember the match picture of Sonic vs Dante? Crap, crap, and crappier. Tails can be a little overrated in terms of 2004 stats if you ask me.

Just trying to make a little sense, I guess.
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Terra vs. Sarah Kerrigan / Bracket: Terra / Vote: Terra (8/9)
Tomorrow / Bracket: KOS-MOS / Vote: Amy Rose
longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/21/2006 3:49:48 PM | message detail
times have changed since 2003/4, but not that much.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Dante probably dropped a little from the lack of success DMC2 received. However its safe to assume he got a pretty good boost from DMC3 correct? Now don't get me wrong, if there was a most opportune moment for Dante > Auron, it'd be 2K5. Now a DMC4 boosted Dante vs a KH2 boosted Auron? Now that is what I call a good lookin brawl.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/21/2006 3:50:14 PM | message detail
er, underrated*
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Terra vs. Sarah Kerrigan / Bracket: Terra / Vote: Terra (8/9)
Tomorrow / Bracket: KOS-MOS / Vote: Amy Rose
trannyscience | Posted 9/21/2006 3:50:28 PM | message detail
Do know that Tails' value in 2004 is based off of his match with Dante, and Dante's value is based off of his match with Sonic. Remember the match picture of Sonic vs Dante? Crap, crap, and crappier. Tails can be a little overrated in terms of 2004 stats if you ask me.

it has nothing to do with values. that's a direct match. you don't even need to know what x-stats are to look at that.
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xyzzy
longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/21/2006 3:51:17 PM | message detail
Sure, no one expected him to lose to Knuckles, but a few of us had him done in round 2, which was just unheard of around here.

I saw the upset potential there just barely, but dismissed it too soon. Probably because I'm a big Chrono Trigger fan.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
trannyscience | Posted 9/21/2006 3:52:14 PM | message detail
as for Auron vs. Squall.... I dunno. we have no way of knowing anything about pre-KH Squall - that one match with Snake and we've never seen FF8 in action. I would say Auron, but not sure there.
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xyzzy
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/21/2006 3:53:28 PM | message detail
it has nothing to do with values. that's a direct match. you don't even need to know what x-stats are to look at that

I kinda looked at the stuff wrong, I thought you were trying to compare what Dante's expected on 2004 Tails in 2005 compared to what he actually got in 2004. <_<;
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Terra vs. Sarah Kerrigan / Bracket: Terra / Vote: Terra (8/9)
Tomorrow / Bracket: KOS-MOS / Vote: Amy Rose
longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/21/2006 3:53:29 PM | message detail
Squall is featured prominently in KH1 and Auron has a big party member role in KH2...so it would be a close fight indeed.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/21/2006 3:57:36 PM | message detail
it has nothing to do with values. that's a direct match. you don't even need to know what x-stats are to look at that.

But it does help to consider that Tails may have boosted. Looking at Sonic's dismal performance in 2003 and his rebound in 2004, it's entirely possible that the same boost extended to his brethren. We just don't have an accurate reading on Shadow from 2k3, and Knuckles is behind Link/Mega Man.

And do note that Auron behind definite Cloud/Auron SFF is still far higher than Squall behind potential Snake/Squall SFF...
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Commit it to memory.
Osfan | Posted 9/21/2006 3:58:50 PM | message detail
So what does everyone think will be the greatest bracket buster of the tourney? Ganon Vince is a heated debate but its even on both sides...
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"I'll do it with my magic!" Tellah-Final Fantasy 4
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/21/2006 3:59:42 PM | message detail
Ganon over Sonic.

Game over Noble Nine.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
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Draco1214 | Posted 9/21/2006 4:00:36 PM | message detail
In terms of prediction percentage, Zero's matches if he manages to defeat his fourpack.
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Character Battle V Score - 9/9 points
Current Prediction - Terra Branford vs. Sarah Kerrigan
Osfan | Posted 9/21/2006 4:01:50 PM | message detail
I hope your right cuz i went with that ;-) I have faith HM and with your bet obviously you do too
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"I'll do it with my magic!" Tellah-Final Fantasy 4
longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/21/2006 4:02:25 PM | message detail
Zero is gonna whoop them hos.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/21/2006 4:02:47 PM | message detail
I have faith HM and with your bet obviously you do too

That pick was made with TP being out before the match in mind. HM doesn't have any faith, he's just trying to be cute. =P
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Commit it to memory.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/21/2006 4:03:29 PM | message detail
in 2005 I take Ganondorf over Vincent, no question. 54% on Auron > 54% on Dante

Ehh, I'm not so sure the disparity between the two is THAT large. Sure, you can look back on the comparisons against Tails, but keep in mind that 2003 was Sonic's worst year, and 2004 saw the crew return to form a bit. 2004 turned out to be Dante's worst year, too. I think it's difficult to say that he wasn't noticeably stronger in 2005. After all, he goes from only 38% on Sonic to around 42% on Crono, who is a good bit stronger than 2004 Sonic. He's shown that he's in the same league with a Squall who got 42% on Samus back in 2003 as well.

Honestly, I wouldn't struggle on picking Squall or Vincent to beat Auron in 2005, so it can't be too much better than 54% on Dante, really. Plus, factor in Dirge of Cerberus for Vincent, and I really can't see Ganondorf winning this match big time. There's no way he outdoes what he did on Auron anyway. If he does, Sonic better watch out.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/21/2006 4:03:40 PM | message detail
I have the faith -- Zelda renewed it, baby!


Don't listen to Kay Aitch; he'll stick all sorts of nonsensical crap into your head!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
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Heroic Mario | Posted 9/21/2006 4:05:25 PM | message detail
Honestly, I wouldn't struggle on picking Squall or Vincent to beat Auron in 2005,

That is because I would wager the fanbase liking Squall and Vincent more than Auron. Not necessarily because Auron is not indirectly near them.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/21/2006 4:06:46 PM | message detail
I don't think Squall or Vincent would have needed SFF to win, and it's difficult to say that they're more favored than Auron to the point where they could overperform significantly.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
trannyscience | Posted 9/21/2006 4:07:59 PM | message detail

But it does help to consider that Tails may have boosted. Looking at Sonic's dismal performance in 2003 and his rebound in 2004, it's entirely possible that the same boost extended to his brethren. We just don't have an accurate reading on Shadow from 2k3, and Knuckles is behind Link/Mega Man.


that's a lot to make up, especially for something that "may" have happened. if you believe Samus overperformed on Cloud for whatever reason, Sonic doesn't look as good.

Ehh, I'm not so sure the disparity between the two is THAT large. Sure, you can look back on the comparisons against Tails, but keep in mind that 2003 was Sonic's worst year, and 2004 saw the crew return to form a bit. 2004 turned out to be Dante's worst year, too. I think it's difficult to say that he wasn't noticeably stronger in 2005. After all, he goes from only 38% on Sonic to around 42% on Crono, who is a good bit stronger than 2004 Sonic. He's shown that he's in the same league with a Squall who got 42% on Samus back in 2003 as well.

yeah, I agree, Dante is stronger now than he was then. but strong enough to topple Auron? I don't think so.
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xyzzy
longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/21/2006 4:08:50 PM | message detail
Dantes still gonna own Yoshi. Oh, and I don't even like Dante.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/21/2006 4:09:42 PM | message detail
I wouldn't expect them to overperform significantly, but enough to get a comfortable win over him. Indirectly, I would expect Auron, Squall, and Vincent to all be within a couple of percents of each other.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
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Heroic Mario | Posted 9/21/2006 4:11:42 PM | message detail
And looking at the stats now, Dante is expected to go 50/50 with Ganon.


Yeah...that's not ever happening.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/21/2006 4:13:19 PM | message detail
....Oh yes it would
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/21/2006 4:13:41 PM | message detail
Honestly, Auron doesn't beat Dante with more than 52-53%, and that's being generous, really.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/21/2006 4:13:50 PM | message detail
The only thing that would happen in such a match is Ganon beating Dante down without trouble, yo.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Osfan | Posted 9/21/2006 4:15:31 PM | message detail
Overall I think one thing can be taken from todays match Rydia beats both Terra and Sarah ;-) on a serious note though how was Rydia left out and characters like Lara Croft got in? *tries to draw attention away from the crazy Ganon over Sonic pick* ;-)
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"I'll do it with my magic!" Tellah-Final Fantasy 4
Lopen | Posted 9/21/2006 4:15:32 PM | message detail
times have changed since 2003/4, but not that much.

Absolutely they could've. Tails might've increased from 2003-2004. Auron almost certainly dropped a bit from 2003-2005, (Square influx) and Dante had a massive boost from 2004-2005 (DMC3).

Dante > Auron is a very real possibility. Even now, because I don't expect a "KHF" for Auron. Maybe a slight boost, but I'm not saying he gets much from it.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/21/2006 4:16:13 PM | message detail
Boost Ganon three percent to put him slightly above Bowser and under Snake and Auron is projected to beat Dante with 52.09%.

Oh yes.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
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Incompetence | Posted 9/21/2006 4:17:01 PM | message detail
http://i83.photobucket.com/albums/j320/Nisuka/untitled.jpg


Why did KOS-MOS' eyes change color? O_o
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My name says it all.
Draco1214 | Posted 9/21/2006 4:18:05 PM | message detail
I'm expecting a good boost for Auron, considering his role in KH2.
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Character Battle V Score - 9/9 points
Current Prediction - Terra Branford vs. Sarah Kerrigan
trannyscience | Posted 9/21/2006 4:18:12 PM | message detail
Rydia would get smashed, badly.

..gah, this makes me wonder how the hell Crono is so strong. IT MAKES NO SENSE
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xyzzy
longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/21/2006 4:18:16 PM | message detail
Maybe a slight boost, but I'm not saying he gets much from it.

Fun Trivia Fact for Lopen: I'm going to an anime/video game convention this weekend, and I can almost guarantee you KH2 characters are gonna dominate. And guess who fights with you in Olympus? LOL!
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
Lopen | Posted 9/21/2006 4:21:39 PM | message detail
I've played and beaten Kingdom Hearts 2, I know exactly what he does in the game. Honestly, I'd expect Sephiroth, Cloud... maybe even Squall and Tifa to boost more. Auron doesn't really do much.

The thing that Auron doesn't have that the original "KH Boost" people do is a new system exposure. FFX is on PS2, FF VII was only on the PS1. Yeah, I think that makes a difference.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/21/2006 4:23:11 PM | message detail
People were all over Auron's role in KH2 when it came out. Everyone loved it. It doesn't need to be a monstrous boost or anything, but him boosting a few percentage points is certainly likely to happen.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Osfan | Posted 9/21/2006 4:24:40 PM | message detail
Rydia would get smashed, badly.

while she wouldnt win she wouldnt lose badly her fanbase is almost shared with terra and the SNES FF fans, and FF4 had more remakes just less people have played FF4 which is the greatest tragedy of all. She is pretty well like to as can be seen by the number of noms she tallied compared to Cecil this year on this board. I mean who can resist the lawl that is the FF2 SNES translation. See sig ;-)
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"I'll do it with my magic!" Tellah-Final Fantasy 4
trannyscience | Posted 9/21/2006 4:26:00 PM | message detail
just less people have played FF4

'sall you needed to say. FF4 is in my top 10, but she's going to do even worse than Cecil did. which is worse than Terra did.
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xyzzy
Draco1214 | Posted 9/21/2006 4:27:01 PM | message detail
Honestly, I'd expect Sephiroth, Cloud... maybe even Squall and Tifa to boost more. Auron doesn't really do much.

...What?
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Character Battle V Score - 9/9 points
Current Prediction - Terra Branford vs. Sarah Kerrigan
Lopen | Posted 9/21/2006 4:28:49 PM | message detail
Well, I didn't love it. I was kinda disappointed. Most people who loved it were probably Auron fans anyway.

And yes, a few %age points is beyond what I think he'll boost. I give him one at best. The role was so small, and the big selling point is he's not getting as many new fans from the role as Cloud or Sephiroth would've from the first.

Then again, I have Master Chief beating him, so I've pretty much gotta doubt a big KH boost to have any faith in that one. Maybe you can just ignore me on this topic. I'll wait until Auron/Alucard to decide whether I should abandon ship on that one.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/21/2006 4:30:09 PM | message detail
Well, I didn't love it. I was kinda disappointed. Most people who loved it were probably Auron fans anyway.

I played KH2 long before I played FFX. Auron's badass role in KH2 was what convinced me to pick up FFX in the first place.
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Commit it to memory.
Lopen | Posted 9/21/2006 4:30:18 PM | message detail
Auron doesn't do much. He might have the most limited role out of any of the world characters. You can't even use him in the Colosseum, for crissakes!
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef