GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 366
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/20/2006 8:34:01 PM | message detail |
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Oh, and also, even assuming my "X-Stats don't work for fodder" logic
doesn't work… Kerrigan has another factor going in: She'll probably
have a better match picture this time. Everybody whined about it last
year… and they should have. I surely didn't recognize her, nobody did.
That wasn't the chick on my Starcraft loading screen, or my Starcraft
box, or my Starcraft game! What? Her name? Maybe I forgot it! This
could be huge for Kerrigan, methinks. (Go picture factor!) Lopen's Prediction: Sarah Kerrigan with 54.91% KH’s Analysis lol x-stats history Terra Summer 2005 Contest Extrapolated Strength --- 50th Place [17.10%] Terra, considered by many to be the main character of Final Fantasy 6, is another glaring example of how characters from that game fail to be strong on nearly every level. The fact that the game's characters have three career wins against Pac-Man, Wesker, and Mithos is absolutely pathetic, and all of those wins come from Kefka. Terra is far weaker than the clown, and proved it when she stunk up the place in her match against Dante last year. What a disappointment. Sarah Kerrigan Summer 2005 Contest Extrapolated Strength --- 64th Place [13.70%] But if Terra was a disappointment, Kerrigan was a complete, total, utter disgrace. With a higher seed, the luxury of at least going up against untested competition, and the resounding successes of Blizzard entries such as Starcraft and Diablo, Kerrigan bombed to all hell against Vincent, ending up one of the five weakest characters in the entire contest going by the stats. ...there's not much more to say about these two. Notable Releases Since Last Appearance Terra: N/A Sarah Kerrigan: N/A Upcoming Releases Terra: N/A Sarah Kerrigan: N/A The first debatable match in a while, and I'm inclined to treat it like a 1 v. 8 blowout. That's how much I dislike this match. The fact that two of the biggest bombs we had in the last contest are able to be pitted against one another in a subsequent contest just makes me want to boycott this match altogether. In all honesty, when you get this low with fodder, I really don't think you can say anything for certain with this match. Things like match picture can have far more of a sway when the voters don't know or care about either contestant, and Kerrigan getting a Brood War picture might be the only thing she needs to tip this into a close match. Being Blizzard won't exactly hurt in terms of rallying potential. Then again, I have a hard time seeing more people care about Kerrigan than people care about Terra. I really don't think Starcraft is in FF6's league here. Yes, I know what that implies. I'll just be stubborn and stick to the X-Stats on this one. If it goes differently, fine, I hate this damn female bracket anyway. Karma Hunter's Vote: BOYCOTT Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Terra with 58.86%. ...yeah. I gotta win a point one of these times. =/ Upset Potential: 30% I'm not even going to grace this with the typical upset alert that accompanies such a high upset probability. Man, I hate this match. Upset Prediction: Kerrigan with 53.8%. Guest’s Analysis - cyko (4) Terra Branford (Final Fantasy3/6) vs. (5) Sarah Kerrigan (Starcraft) - at first glance, this seemed like an easy match to predict: unadjusted S2K5 x-stats - 47) Terra Branford - 17.10% ..... 18.65% . . . 58) Sarah Kerrigan - 13.70% ..... 14.95% that means that Terra is expected to win with 59.94% of the vote. therefore, most people in the BOP and the Guru Contest took Terra without giving this match a passing thought. in fact, pretty much noone talked about this match until this past Sunday, when Celes got absolutely clobbered by The Boss: |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/20/2006 8:34:25 PM | message detail |
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The Boss 61.08% 66787 Celes Chere 38.92% 42565 TOTAL VOTES 109352 everyone to the PANIC ROOM!!!! so, should we be panicing about Terra's chances? well, first of all, we have no guarantee of where Celes or The Boss lie in relation to Terra. most people feel that Celes had a slim, if any, chance at being stronger than Terra. there's really been no evidence (up until Sunday's match) that Celes was any stronger or weaker than Terra. as for The Boss, she did have a lot of casual bracket-maker support. and being a fan-favorite boss from the MGS series, she might be as strong as Revolver Ocelot, who was pretty even with Kefka (who in turn, seemed quite a bit stronger than Terra). so it's quite possible that The Boss would beat Terra as easily as she did Celes. the other thing that makes people a little nervous about picking against Kerrigan is that she's a Blizzard character and Blizzard keeps finding a way to throw matches in the face of this board. however, those same people keep forgetting that Kerrigan is NO Starcraft. the majority of Starcraft fans do not play Starcraft for the campaign or because of how much they love Kerrigan. she will not gather the Blizzard support the same way that Diablo, GTA, and Starcraft did. finally, don't forget about the pictures; because in fodder vs. fodder matches - they do make a difference. Terra holds a HUGE advantage in this department. i tried finding decent, recognizable pictures of Kerrigan. i really did. the only thing i could come up with was the cover of Starcraft: Brood War. and it seems highly unlikely that Ceej will use that pic because it just doesn't lend itself to the style of match pics that he uses. all that leaves is that ugly, unrecognizable pic that she got against Vincent last year. so, even though some people are still nervous about the Mass Carriers of Blizzard, they aren't gonna rescue Kerrigan. cyko's prediction - Terra Branford with 60.43% |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/20/2006 8:43:04 PM | message detail |
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Slippery slope on Ceej's part. Now we'll just hear 900000 whining topics whenever a bad pic comes up. ~*ST*~ --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/20/2006 8:43:53 PM | message detail |
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That always happens anyway! --- Commit it to memory. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/20/2006 8:43:53 PM | message detail |
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They were in the same four-pack and Terra was expected to win
60-40...Terra's got all the intangables, though Kerrigan at least has a
better pic now than before...and I still haven't heard anything about
rallies for Kerrigan. Terra should win with no less than 58%, and I'm calling for 59...point-twelve. --- Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest. It still hurts to be rear-ended like that..... |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/20/2006 8:44:12 PM | message detail |
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maybe it'll become a fad and people will get modded for it. eh, I can hope. the weird thing about this match is that if Kerrigan does indeed win, everyone will blame it on the picture. if the current picture was the original, I bet there'd be a lot less people saying something. --- xyzzy |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/20/2006 8:49:33 PM | message detail |
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Kerrigan will definitly do a bit better thanks to the new pic, but not enough to put her over Terra. --- CB5 Points: 7/8, Current Oracle placement: 46/155 Now playing: Xenosaga 3 (kinda) |
| creativename | Posted 9/20/2006 8:52:15 PM | message detail |
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I wonder who'll flop more with the day vote, Terra or Kerrigan. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/20/2006 8:52:44 PM | message detail |
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Both >_> --- CB5 Points: 7/8, Current Oracle placement: 46/155 Now playing: Xenosaga 3 (kinda) |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/20/2006 8:53:09 PM | message detail |
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Terra for sure. Terra would lose the day vote to a piece of air. --- xyzzy |
| Haste_2 | Posted 9/20/2006 8:54:03 PM | message detail |
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So, you're saying air is amazing with the night vote? =p --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| creativename | Posted 9/20/2006 8:54:45 PM | message detail |
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And Kerrigan wouldn't? A piece of air might be neutral in it's day/night tendencies... --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Janus5000 | Posted 9/20/2006 8:54:52 PM | message detail |
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I don't think anyone actually votes during the day in this case. --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4 |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 9/20/2006 8:56:00 PM | message detail |
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Zelda getting 102,000 votes is good stuff. That's more than LoZ got against Civilization. --- "Master using it and you can have this." http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/20/2006 8:56:28 PM | message detail |
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hmm... maybe people will just stop voting altogether. --- xyzzy |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/20/2006 8:57:14 PM | message detail |
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Terra [52.00%] - 52 votes Kerrigan [48.00%] - 48 votes --- CB5 Points: 7/8, Current Oracle placement: 46/155 Now playing: Xenosaga 3 (kinda) |
| charmander6000 | Posted 9/20/2006 8:57:23 PM | message detail |
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I say Terra does better during the day since Starcraft is strongest at night. --- "I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 9/20/2006 8:58:41 PM | message detail |
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I say Terra does better during the day since Starcraft is strongest at night. And ff6 isn't? --- When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory! |
| charmander6000 | Posted 9/20/2006 8:59:30 PM | message detail |
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*stronger --- "I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/20/2006 9:00:15 PM | message detail |
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Terra Branford 66.67% 8 Sarah Kerrigan 33.33% 4 TOTAL VOTES 12 FINISH'D --- Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded. Terra vs. Kerrigan - Bracket: Terra - Vote: Terra (8/9) |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/20/2006 9:00:34 PM | message detail |
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I say Terra does better during the day since Starcraft is strongest at night. The Boss won the day vote against Celes. --- Commit it to memory. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/20/2006 9:00:34 PM | message detail |
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98.13% for Zelda! Dayum! --- Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded. Terra vs. Kerrigan - Bracket: Terra - Vote: Terra (8/9) |
| Janus5000 | Posted 9/20/2006 9:00:51 PM | message detail |
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Terra Branford 64% 32 Sarah Kerrigan 36% 18 TOTAL VOTES 50 Hah, Zelda had a higher prediction % than Samus too. --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4 |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/20/2006 9:00:57 PM | message detail |
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lol x-stawhat? --- xyzzy |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 9/20/2006 9:01:41 PM | message detail |
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Terra Branford 60.98% 250 Sarah Kerrigan 39.02% 160 TOTAL VOTES 410 Bam! --- "Master using it and you can have this." http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/20/2006 9:02:22 PM | message detail |
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90 vote lead at the first freeze looks pretty good for Terra. Y'know, this was kinda what I expected in the second round of the Devil Division last year. <_< --- Mustache...and green... http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 9/20/2006 9:02:25 PM | message detail |
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Zelda had an insane bracket percentage. Zelda over Samus confirmed. --- "Master using it and you can have this." http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg |
| TheCruelAngel | Posted 9/20/2006 9:02:32 PM | message detail |
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Zelda > Samus. Ganon > Sonic. Link > Sephiroth + Cloud Yes! Yes! --- Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!? Squall: ...Flower. |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 9/20/2006 9:03:06 PM | message detail |
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Y'know, this was kinda what I expected in the second round of the Devil Division last year. <_< Don't worry, you weren't alone. >_> --- When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory! |
| Team Rocket Elite | Posted 9/20/2006 9:04:01 PM | message detail |
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Score-Brackets-% Right 8------8583-----99.7320284 7------15100----99.2913907 6------11169----98.8539708 5------5250-----97.6380952 4------1737-----95.3367876 3------425------88.7058824 2------129------56.5891473 1------126------16.6666667 0------127------0.7874016 Overall prediction percentage: 98.13% Close but not quite, we're still losing perfects and zeroes. It's still a good performance with the top 5 tiers breaking 90. Once again no one fell off the Top 50! --- I got pwnt by Z1mZum in the July 2006 Guru Contest. Support Toadette for the Summer 2006 Contest! |
| Lopen | Posted 9/20/2006 9:04:48 PM | message detail |
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The board vote should massively favor Terra... I expect the % to plummet... though Kerrigan winning ain't feeling so great. --- Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef |
| cyko | Posted 9/20/2006 9:05:36 PM | message detail |
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c'mon, Terra - stay over 60%!! --- i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest. Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!! |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/20/2006 9:05:46 PM | message detail |
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Just stay around here, gals, and I'll be sitting pretty! --- Commit it to memory. |
| Haste_2 | Posted 9/20/2006 9:06:01 PM | message detail |
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Kerrigan cuts into the percentage, but I think it's safe to say that Terra has it. Yeah, Terra had better win if her friggin' GAME can get 47% on Zelda: LttP. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 9/20/2006 9:06:13 PM | message detail |
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The board vote should massively favor Terra... I expect the % to plummet... though Kerrigan winning ain't feeling so great. Really now? =p --- "Master using it and you can have this." http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg |
| Big Bob | Posted 9/20/2006 9:07:26 PM | message detail |
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This has been a weird contest so far... I expected Kairi/Claire to be a blowout, and instead it was really close. I expected The Boss/Celes to be relatively close, but it was a blowout. Now I expected this match to be close, but instead it's a blowout. Yet, I've corrected all three of these winners correctly, so that means... Rose > KOS-MOS with 60%! --- September 22nd! Amy Rose > KOS-MOS Currently Playing: Disgaea: Hour of Darkness, God of War, Tales of Symphonia (again) |
| Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 9/20/2006 9:07:43 PM | message detail |
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Theoretically wouldn't a battle royale favor Link by default since the
Square fanbase will split their votes between Cloud and Sephiroth (who
are relatively close in strength)? Whereas I guarantee if Link and
Mario had another match right now Link would be around the 60% or more
range. --- Can't think of a good sig. |
| Lopen | Posted 9/20/2006 9:09:39 PM | message detail |
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What kinda plummeting is that? Come on, Kerrigan! --- Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/20/2006 9:10:42 PM | message detail |
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percentage has pretty much stabilized.. this should stay around this percentage unless there's a ton of bracket voting going on. --- xyzzy |
| cyko | Posted 9/20/2006 9:11:52 PM | message detail |
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now, i wonder if this match will turn out like Peach vs. Daisy and the entire match stays in the 58% range all day long.... --- i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest. Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!! |
| TheCruelAngel | Posted 9/20/2006 9:13:14 PM | message detail |
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I hope not. I want to see Terra 100tupling that *****. <_< --- Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!? Squall: ...Flower. |
| Haste_2 | Posted 9/20/2006 9:14:08 PM | message detail |
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Meh...maybe even fodder is more linear than I gave credit for. It's
pretty darn close to the x-stats right now. I thought x-stats for
fodder was really only accurate if they faced different opponents of
fairly similar strength (see CATS for 3 consec. years, see Conker, etc.) --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| Janus5000 | Posted 9/20/2006 9:14:21 PM | message detail |
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Relax. It takes a while to get carriers. --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4 |
| Team Rocket Elite | Posted 9/20/2006 9:14:32 PM | message detail |
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Theoretically wouldn't a battle royale favor Link by default since
the Square fanbase will split their votes between Cloud and Sephiroth
(who are relatively close in strength)? Whereas I guarantee if Link and
Mario had another match right now Link would be around the 60% or more
range. Not really. One on one, Link beats everybody with only a small chance of losing to Cloud. We've never seen a Battle Royale before so there is at least a chance something wierd happens and Link loses and Link STILL has to fight Cloud at the end. --- I got pwnt by Z1mZum in the July 2006 Guru Contest. Support Toadette for the Summer 2006 Contest! |
| Draco1214 | Posted 9/20/2006 9:16:21 PM | message detail |
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Bleh, this percentage slicing isn't looking good for my 59% Oracle. --- Character Battle V Score - 9/9 points Current Prediction - Terra Branford vs. Sarah Kerrigan |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 9/20/2006 9:17:53 PM | message detail |
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Looks like kerrigan will make this look a bit more respectable on her
part. She still has about as much chance of winning as Carmen sandiego
at this point though. --- When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory! |
| Draco1214 | Posted 9/20/2006 9:20:52 PM | message detail |
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Ah, that's better. NOW STAY THERE TERRA. --- Character Battle V Score - 9/9 points Current Prediction - Terra Branford vs. Sarah Kerrigan |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/20/2006 9:21:43 PM | message detail |
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Did Kerrigan have the board vote?!?!? --- Terra vs. Sarah Kerrigan / Bracket: Terra / Vote: Terra (8/9) Tomorrow / Bracket: KOS-MOS / Vote: Amy Rose |
| Lopen | Posted 9/20/2006 9:25:13 PM | message detail |
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You know what this %age slicing isn't looking good for? My 52% Kerrigan Oracle pick. Attack fiercer, woman! Damn it... man, Kerrigan just makes me sad. At least Sheena lost to a respectable opponent! Kerrigan shouldn't be this weak! --- Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef |
| creativename | Posted 9/20/2006 9:35:56 PM | message detail |
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Link STILL has to fight Cloud at the end. Or Sephiroth. Can't see Mario lasting to the final two, but Sephiroth has some shot. Not much hero SFF would be necessary. At any rate I expect to see something odd happen in the Battle Royale, as I think many of us do. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |