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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 365

XIII_rocks | Posted 9/20/2006 9:44:14 AM | message detail
:(
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
Hi-ho, Hi-ho, Z1m Zum, Z1m Zum...our guru champ.
KingBartz | Posted 9/20/2006 9:45:16 AM | message detail
oh, what does lol x-stats say for Terra vs. kerrigan(I'm lazy)?
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The end of the world is nigh! Earth Life Remaining: 13 days, 11 hours, 15 minutes.
SC2K6: 7/8 Today's pick: Zelda
HaRRicH | Posted 9/20/2006 9:47:11 AM | message detail
*quietly thinks about telling them to shut the **** up* =P


Carmen's going to loow rather pathetic in the stats...but at least Zelda will probably be a lil' stronger this year and there's no doubt in my mind Carmen can still beat most of the fodder she's nearby just on recognizability alone.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 9/20/2006 9:47:11 AM | message detail
Terra wins with 55% I think.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/20/2006 9:47:21 AM | message detail
Terra (2005c) VS Sarah Kerrigan (2005c)

Terra has a strength of 18.65.
Sarah Kerrigan has a strength of 14.95.

Terra wins with 59.92% of the vote!
A win of 19,507 with 98,324 total votes cast.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/20/2006 9:47:31 AM | message detail
Terra with just shy of 60%.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/20/2006 9:55:55 AM | message detail
Owned.

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Hi-ho, Hi-ho, Z1m Zum, Z1m Zum...our guru champ.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/20/2006 9:56:32 AM | message detail
Between Zelda killing Carmen a good deal worse than Samus did to Nidoran F, Tifa getting a higher individual-total against arguably a tougher opponent than Samus had as well as a much higher match-total than her (and Zelda may be looking to say the same soon...though in Samus's defense, her match was Ninty/Ninty), and the expected winner poll just before the contest where Samus didn't even have as many people vote to say she would win as there were Sephiroth-by-a-landslide votes last year, then seeing and knowing that LoZ, SSB, and FF are far bigger franchises here than Metroid...

...I am NOT calling for the upset, but Samus could get a scare sooner than we expect.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
KingBartz | Posted 9/20/2006 9:57:37 AM | message detail
^^ indeed
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The end of the world is nigh! Earth Life Remaining: 13 days
SC2K6: 7/8 Today's pick: Zelda
__Smurf__ | Posted 9/20/2006 10:01:34 AM | message detail
I wouldn't hold a match aganist joke opposition in any regard at all. When Samus stretches over 80% aganist Ada, that'll be clear.
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Smurf. The Cream of Knuckles Fanboyism.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/20/2006 10:04:08 AM | message detail
Joke opposition or not, I would have still thought Ivy or Carmen could beat/outdo Nidoran F before the contest.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
HaRRicH | Posted 9/20/2006 10:04:47 AM | message detail
Oh, and CATS predicted two contest-champions correctly.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Haste_2 | Posted 9/20/2006 10:06:51 AM | message detail
Bub did better than Terry Bogard.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/20/2006 10:07:29 AM | message detail
This is still impressive no matter how you slice it, even moreso if Zelda can be the first to get 100,000 individual votes.

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/20/2006 10:08:06 AM | message detail
Yeah -- if Zelda doesn't do it now, the next in line to would probably be Tingle.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 9/20/2006 10:12:54 AM | message detail
Tifa, for whatever reason is an expert at overperforming aganist weaker characters.
She was predicted to be near to Clinkeroth through Vyse, didn't help her when Sonic came to town.

As for Samus. Joke opponent. Remember when Duke Nukem got that Milk pic? He pulled nearly 20 freakin percent off Cloud. The voters are suckers for joke votes.

So why is Carmen not getting the same level of joke votes? Because she's not as well known. She's an edutainment character who a lot of people would not have heard of, and as such wouldn't appreciate the joke.
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My World is still Smurf!
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/20/2006 10:16:06 AM | message detail
Not sure if it has been mentioned yet, but this is a pretty historic day in contest history. Zelda is the first non-Noble 9 character to ever break 85%. Incidentally, the most dominant performance (percentage-wise) before this match for non-Noble 9ers was Ganondorf's 84.98% walloping of Giygas. Also, Sonic the Hedgehog is the only Noble 9 member to have never scored 85%.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
consolefreak | Posted 9/20/2006 10:17:14 AM | message detail
Heh. I was just taking a look at the bracket again, and realised Riku/Yoshi happens 1 day after Kingdom Hearts 2 releases in Europe.

Scary stuff.
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CB: 8/8. Today: Zelda vs. Carmen Tomorrow: Terra vs. Kerrigan
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 9/20/2006 10:17:23 AM | message detail
Didn't Knuckles break 85% on Akira?
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My World is still Smurf!
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/20/2006 10:18:00 AM | message detail
Nope, Knuckles got around 80% in that one.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
consolefreak | Posted 9/20/2006 10:19:54 AM | message detail
Not sure if it has been mentioned yet, but this is a pretty historic day in contest history. Zelda is the first non-Noble 9 character to ever break 85%. Incidentally, the most dominant performance (percentage-wise) before this match for non-Noble 9ers was Ganondorf's 84.98% walloping of Giygas. Also, Sonic the Hedgehog is the only Noble 9 member to have never scored 85%.

Interesting stuff indeed.

I wouldn't look too much into these type of statistics though (I'm looking at you, Heroic Mario) -- Peach was almost the one to do the history writing.
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CB: 8/8. Today: Zelda vs. Carmen Tomorrow: Terra vs. Kerrigan
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/20/2006 10:20:19 AM | message detail
Sonic won't be doing it this year, either. Sucks. :(
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Heroic Mario | Posted 9/20/2006 10:20:21 AM | message detail
Not sure if it has been mentioned yet, but this is a pretty historic day in contest history. Zelda is the first non-Noble 9 character to ever break 85%.

Very nice. I hadn't even realized that.

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/20/2006 10:21:20 AM | message detail
Yes, but Peach was fortunate enough to be involved in probably the second biggest SFF match ever.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/20/2006 10:23:03 AM | message detail
I wouldn't look too much into these type of statistics though (I'm looking at you, Heroic Mario)

They're just interesting to note and look at. One of the primary reasons I thought Zelda might win the Series Contest was because it was following Link's pattern in 2004 exactly -- 80% on three opponents plus 100,000+ in each match. It isn't really any type of determining factor, but they're interesting to look at what happens when we see these type of dominative performances from Zelda-related entries.

The Legend of Zelda was the first contestant to ever break 100,000 votes and Zelda may be the first character to ever break 100,000 votes. That's pretty good stuff.

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
consolefreak | Posted 9/20/2006 10:23:34 AM | message detail
Yes, but Peach was fortunate enough to be involved in probably the second biggest SFF match ever.

The point stands though that the statistic doesn't relate to contest strength very accurately. I was merely illustrating this.

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CB: 8/8. Today: Zelda vs. Carmen Tomorrow: Terra vs. Kerrigan
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 9/20/2006 10:25:51 AM | message detail
Dante/Vergil for SC2k7 so I can say Dante is God for breaking 85%
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
consolefreak | Posted 9/20/2006 10:28:06 AM | message detail
They're just interesting to note and look at. One of the primary reasons I thought Zelda might win the Series Contest was because it was following Link's pattern in 2004 exactly -- 80% on three opponents plus 100,000+ in each match. It isn't really any type of determining factor, but they're interesting to look at what happens when we see these type of dominative performances from Zelda-related entries.

They are interesting, yes.


The Legend of Zelda was the first contestant to ever break 100,000 votes and Zelda may be the first character to ever break 100,000 votes. That's pretty good stuff.

Man, no character broke 100,000 yet? Tifa got so close too :(

And at this point, it would be pretty surprising if Zelda didn't break the 100,000 votes. She should have this.

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CB: 8/8. Today: Zelda vs. Carmen Tomorrow: Terra vs. Kerrigan
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/20/2006 10:30:42 AM | message detail
This match is on a weekday, too. This match being the highest in vote totals would be pretty impressive.

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
consolefreak | Posted 9/20/2006 10:33:49 AM | message detail
This match is on a weekday, too. This match being the highest in vote totals would be pretty impressive.

Ah, that may be a tad optimistic. I doubt it'll surpass Tifa - Ivy. The 100,000 is pretty much a given though.
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CB: 8/8. Today: Zelda vs. Carmen Tomorrow: Terra vs. Kerrigan
HaRRicH | Posted 9/20/2006 10:53:03 AM | message detail
How are the vote-totals doin' right now, anyway?
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
HaRRicH | Posted 9/20/2006 11:07:39 AM | message detail
Also, since the after-school vote is about to come up forty minutes from now...Zelda should make a killing with it, even compared to what she's doing now. The people that will be getting out of their schools will mostly be no older than 18, meaning they were born in 1988 or later. Wiki says the shows aired until 1998, so no of them have seen the show since then unless I missed something or if they got it recorded or some **** like that, heh...but what I'm saying is that even the oldest of those coming from the after-school vote haven't seen the show in eight years and haven't seen it since they were ten years old, and that's if they even watched it. Furthermore, the younger they are, the less likely they are to have ever even played one of her games that got her well-liked in the first place...

...then, from there, Zelda is from LoZ (obviously, I know), which has generally had a positive day-vote -- not fantastic, but above average. Nintendo has shown time and time again it's good with the day-vote, ignoring DK. SSBM has shown to be killer with the after-school vote, and the people coming back from school are more likely to have been playing newer games from the past generation, two, or three...than, you know...games on the Apple.



Zelda will push this even further, sadly.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
zurbergram7 | Posted 9/20/2006 11:09:16 AM | message detail
how many of you actually watched Where in the world is Carmen San Diego?
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/20/2006 11:10:09 AM | message detail
*raises hand*
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
HaRRicH | Posted 9/20/2006 11:10:10 AM | message detail
I did when I saw it on, though I don't think I actually tuned in for it...it's been a long time for me.

I'm 21.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Big Bob | Posted 9/20/2006 11:11:09 AM | message detail
Wow, I didn't realize it's only 2 days until KOS-MOS/Rose.

My first upset pick better be right. >_>;
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September 22nd! Amy Rose > KOS-MOS
Currently Playing: Disgaea: Hour of Darkness, God of War, Tales of Symphonia (again)
HaRRicH | Posted 9/20/2006 11:18:24 AM | message detail
Sorry, but...um...I'd doubting it. She'll be lucky to match Crash against KOS-MOS.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
ShadowOwns | Posted 9/20/2006 11:23:06 AM | message detail
*remebers carmen like it was yesturday* *is almost 19*
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Oil fan til the death.
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/20/2006 11:23:26 AM | message detail
I hardly watched the show, but I remember the Megadrive/Genesis game being awesomely awesome.
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Yesmar | Posted 9/20/2006 11:23:56 AM | message detail
Am I the only who thinks Carmen might be suffering from Pac-Man syndrome?

Meaning that most of her popularity comes purely from name recognition, so she can do decent against characters with no "name appeal" but collapses against characters that actually have some.

Maybe I'm just a Carmen fanboy, but I just can't see her being bottom-level fodder like this implies.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
HaRRicH | Posted 9/20/2006 11:28:03 AM | message detail
I'll agree to a point -- Haste brought it up yesterday, and I said it would be minimal...but right now, just barely over Yuri (is she even still above Yuri?!) makes me think something is up. I know I would have no problem taking her over Yuri or Manny, so...maybe there is. Also, for what it's worth, Zelda is bigger and stronger here than Yoshi or Luigi, so maybe that makes it more likely for Carmen to have suffered some (though I'm not trying to imply she would suffer more than Pac-Man proportionately).
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Haste_2 | Posted 9/20/2006 11:30:34 AM | message detail
XIII pointed out Terra being expected to get 59.98% on Kerrigan. Let's just use creativename's most recent adjusted x-stats to predict EVERY possible Round 1 match....

Chun Li beats Kasumi - 54.21%
Squall beats Tidus - 57.86%
Dante beats Hayabusa - 63.72%
Yoshi beats Riku - 58.41%
Ryu beats Kratos - 65.98%
Sonic over CATS - 75.01%
Vincent over Ganondorf - 52.73%
Zero over Luigi - 51.20%
Bowser over Leon - 62.37%
Auron over Alucard - 62.86%

Ryu vs. Kratos will probably the furthest off...Kratos' game has been continuing to sell, and he was underrated in the first place. Oh, and Chun Li will probably win by a lot more than 54%....I'd say more, but I don't feel like mentioning debatable things right now.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Jmast7 | Posted 9/20/2006 11:34:04 AM | message detail
Okay, I'm lazy... so how close were the lol x-stats on the matches we've already had? Or are there just too many new characters to draw any conclusions?
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"I've tried 'em all, I really have, and the only church that truly feeds the soul, day in, day out, is the Church of Baseball." - Annie Savoy
Haste_2 | Posted 9/20/2006 11:34:56 AM | message detail
We haven't had any lol x-stats matches yet. Tomorrow will be the first!

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/20/2006 11:35:40 AM | message detail
Auron over Alucard - 62.86%


Hopefully he will do better than that...
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Supporter of Alucard.
Jmast7 | Posted 9/20/2006 11:35:57 AM | message detail
Cool, then! Yay for data! =)
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"I've tried 'em all, I really have, and the only church that truly feeds the soul, day in, day out, is the Church of Baseball." - Annie Savoy
Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 9/20/2006 11:36:15 AM | message detail
I used to watch the shows and played the games in school. I'm 19.

I also watched the old Mario Brothers Super Show.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 9/20/2006 11:41:15 AM | message detail
Wow, the stats are close for Ganon/Vincent without accounting for Smaus/Ganon SFF and Vincent/Crono rSFF.

Then again, every time I see Samus compete, I doubt more and more that she SFF'd Ganon <_<

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 9/20/2006 11:42:11 AM | message detail
And I think we need to get Carmen a higher seed in 2k7 so we can get an accurate read on her. I know she's my pick if I win the Guru.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
voltch | Posted 9/20/2006 11:51:59 AM | message detail
carmen looks much better than zelda in today's pic.
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Z1mZum humiliated me to hell and back in the Best.Series.Ever contest.