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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 365

Heroic Mario | Posted 9/20/2006 8:25:18 AM | message detail
Carmen's expected to get around 66%, I believe.

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/20/2006 8:26:36 AM | message detail
Also, I suppose I have to admit my wrong in saying Zelda wouldn't pull the biggest blowout here against Carmen Sandiego. I guess she really has been forgotten by the sands of time (Kirby > The Prince!).

And I think it was HaRRicH who asked about how much the cartoons help other characters. I don't really think that's a valid conclusion to draw from this match. After all, Carmen never had that kind of widespread popularity, and she's probably more well-known from the show anyway. This might speak more for how characters from non-video game origins would perform, but I'd be wary of saying that much, too.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/20/2006 8:28:26 AM | message detail
Link's cartoon clearly accounts for 25% of his popularity!!

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/20/2006 8:29:02 AM | message detail
Of course, I think it's fair to guess that Zelda may have increased since last year.

That's what I'm starting to wonder as well. If that's the case, I wonder if it's another widespread increase for Nintendo. I'd sure hope that Samus could break 80% on Nidoran F before this year though...Yes, I know Nidoran F is Nintendo, too, but I sure wouldn't expect her to benefit much from any sort of boost.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/20/2006 8:29:46 AM | message detail
This might speak more for how characters from non-video game origins would perform, but I'd be wary of saying that much, too.

I wouldn't! Link doubles Batman, Vader, and James Bond with ease!
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/20/2006 8:31:03 AM | message detail
Psh, James Bond could hang in there because of GoldenEye!
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/20/2006 8:31:28 AM | message detail
It wouldn't be too shocking if there is another widespread Nintendo increase. One may wonder what would cause another boost, but between Nintendo's amazing E3 performance, the release of the Nintendo DS Lite in June, DS ownership going from 32% to 55% over one year, and NSMB might have helped keep the voters all about Nintendo.

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/20/2006 8:32:30 AM | message detail
Red is a running where everyone accuses everyone else of being a red alt. The real red left this place years ago.

Heh.

-=-

Anyway. A few potentially winnable matches for The Boss: Who would you take her over?

The Boss vs. Kratos (GoW)
The Boss vs. Kefka
The Boss vs. Kratos Aurion
The Boss vs. Diablo
The Boss vs. Gordon Freeman
The Boss vs. KOS-MOS
The Boss vs. Chun-Li
The Boss (without melting art) vs. Revolver Ocelot (with Melting Art)
The Boss vs. Revolver Ocelot (Even picture)
The Boss (melting art) vs. Pac-Man
The Boss vs. Pac-Man (even pic)
The Boss vs. Ness.

I just got these by using Terra in the lol x-sts simulator. Some of them have a good chance of happening if you believe in Terra slightly > Celes.

I'd take her over both Kratoses, Gordon, KOS, Ocelot when she had the pic advantage, maybe Pac-Man (with an even pic), and Ness.

As for Ocelot with an even pic, haven't got a clue. Same with Kefka. I don't give her a big chance against Chunners or Diablo, though. She COULD sneak it, but I doubt it.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/20/2006 8:35:57 AM | message detail
I wouldn't pick her to beat GoW Kratos or Ness. Both of those are stronger than their stats indicate.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/20/2006 8:36:22 AM | message detail
Whoa, 91% update for Zelda.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/20/2006 8:36:31 AM | message detail
I wouldn't take The Boss over Kratos at this point. He should be quite a bit higher than that 2005 value says for a number of reasons.

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/20/2006 8:37:48 AM | message detail
Psh, James Bond could hang in there because of GoldenEye!

Oh, you mean like how LoZ:OoT didn't nearly triple Goldeneye 007?


I'm calling it now, Link SFF's James Bond!
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/20/2006 8:39:31 AM | message detail
Wow. I didn't realize how few votes Carmen is pulling in until I checked the updater. A whopping 36 votes last update to Zelda's 367...oh yeah.

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/20/2006 8:40:31 AM | message detail
I figured Ness would be stronger, but I don't think that MUCH stronger.

GoW Kratos would probably be a 50-50% affair for me, and my picks ALWAYS* come down to personal preference when it comes to 50-50s.


*With some exceptions, VV-Ganon being one of them.
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Heroic Mario | Posted 9/20/2006 8:41:16 AM | message detail
I really don't think GoW Kratos is a 50/50 deal with The Boss. I can see him winning that match without any problem.

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/20/2006 8:41:41 AM | message detail
The after-school vote is going to totally kill Carmen if she's already got a friggin' 91% update. Wow.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Haste_2 | Posted 9/20/2006 8:41:50 AM | message detail
Alright, that's it...with this big of a blowout (and Zelda on the rise) I claim SFF. No arguments!

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Samurai7 | Posted 9/20/2006 8:42:50 AM | message detail
Carmen Sandiego is just about equal with Ms. Pac Man... thats all this means.
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It's a sad fact that you had to derail this topic because you are afraid of the power of the PS3 -- cade
ShadowOwns | Posted 9/20/2006 8:43:23 AM | message detail
This had to be expected by some people. Carmen was only really popular because of her show, and the only people that i suspect that even remember her show are most of the adults that use gamefaqs now. And we know how well cartoon characters would do here :D.
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Oil fan til the death.
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/20/2006 8:43:49 AM | message detail
I really don't think GoW Kratos is a 50/50 deal with The Boss. I can see him winning that match without any problem.

You underestimate WXTOOHAIATF!
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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/20/2006 8:44:21 AM | message detail
Does this performance change anyone's opinion regarding Vincent/Ganondorf?
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/20/2006 8:45:06 AM | message detail
It increases my confidence in Ganon even more!

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/20/2006 8:47:07 AM | message detail
Does this performance change anyone's opinion regarding Vincent/Ganondorf?

Nay. Fodder matches/1 vs. 8 matches = unreliable...most of the time.
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Who Cares? | Posted 9/20/2006 8:47:53 AM | message detail
I could see The Boss going toe-to-toe with KOS-MOS, but not Kratos. (His ranking is stuck behind Snake/Sora, & iirc his game sold like crazy the past year)
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Kasumi (Septemeber 26th)
*Just 20 days until Tales of the Abyss*
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/20/2006 8:48:44 AM | message detail
Yeah. Once God of War went down to $20, it sold like mad. It went from 600,000 last year to over 1.2 million now...just for America.

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/20/2006 8:49:00 AM | message detail
(His ranking is stuck behind Snake/Sora, & iirc his game sold like crazy the past year)

Ah. Forgot about these two factors, but I still think she could break 47.5.
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Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 9/20/2006 8:54:03 AM | message detail
I'd take the Boss over Kefka, if only because I now have no respect for FF6 characters in these contests.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/20/2006 8:56:54 AM | message detail
Ganon's looking better than before, sure, but you can only take so much from a 1/8-match against somebody new, too. I wouldn't go guaranteeing a Ganon victory, and I'm still stickin' with Vincent winning...but this can't hurt Ganon's chances.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/20/2006 8:57:07 AM | message detail
I'd take the Boss over Kefka, if only because I now have no respect for FF6 characters in these contests.

Respect for Turtle + Sideways 8
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Who Cares? | Posted 9/20/2006 9:01:18 AM | message detail
Votals at the halfway mark:

Tifa/Ivy -- 64797 [1st]
The Boss/Celes -- 56916 [5th]
Zelda/Carmen -- 54184
Samus/Nidoran F -- 52372 [2nd]
Jill/Sheena -- 51651 [3rd]

Right now it's the highest scoring weekday match, can the afterschool surge push it to #1?
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Kasumi (Septemeber 26th)
*Just 20 days until Tales of the Abyss*
Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 9/20/2006 9:02:05 AM | message detail
At any rate, how the hell is Carmen getting blown out so badly? Damn this new generation with their 3-D video games and computer animated cartoons >_<

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 9/20/2006 9:03:47 AM | message detail
Zelda is underperforming :( I expected 90% easily.
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/20/2006 9:06:15 AM | message detail
Zelda needs to be the first contestant this contest to break 100,000 individual votes.

Feel the power of Zelda.


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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/20/2006 9:09:12 AM | message detail
IB Zelda > Samus
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Heroic Mario | Posted 9/20/2006 9:09:41 AM | message detail
The first entry last year to break 100,000 votes was The Legend of Zelda, which later went on to win the entire contest. If Zelda breaks that here, it would be the second time that a Zelda-related contestant was the first to break 100,000 individual votes for their respective contests....Zelda to win the main bracket?! Dun dun dun!

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/20/2006 9:10:13 AM | message detail
Told you so.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/20/2006 9:12:13 AM | message detail
The Boss likely ain't far above or below Revolver, and we've seen that -- barring unforeseen changes -- Kefka >= Pac-Man >= Revolver. Also, The Boss got 38.92% on Celes...and Terra is expected to get 41.07% on Kefka (unadjusted and before SFF), which means this isn't factoring in the chance of Terra being over-rated by the Devil Division or that Kefka should have been just a touch stronger due to Some Fishy Factor in the end of Vercetti/Kefka (remember that weird surge for Vercetti at the end?). If Terra > Celes, that's just that much tougher of a time for The Boss to match Kefka...

...The Boss is completely capable of winning the match, but there's more evidence to her losing than winning in a close match. I do like the idea of The Boss/Kefka though.....
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Who Cares? | Posted 9/20/2006 9:12:51 AM | message detail
Zelda > Samus would be such an awesome upset if it happened!
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Kasumi (Septemeber 26th)
*Just 20 days until Tales of the Abyss*
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/20/2006 9:15:15 AM | message detail
I made mention during the Series Contest that the last contestant to break 80% for three consecutive matches (Link) went on to win the entire thing.

The Legend of Zelda broke 80% for three consecutive matches and won it all. All about precedents!!

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/20/2006 9:23:34 AM | message detail
I made mention during the Series Contest that the last contestant to break 80% for three consecutive matches (Link) went on to win the entire thing.

The Legend of Zelda broke 80% for three consecutive matches and won it all. All about precedents!!


Zelda breaking 80% on Aeris FTW?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/20/2006 9:25:30 AM | message detail
I'll settle for nearly two matches and 100,000 votes broke -- it's a mixture of both! Twice the powa!!

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
The Real Truth | Posted 9/20/2006 9:28:05 AM | message detail
Zelda > Link in the battle royale!!
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Nominate Barret Wallace for SC2k7, you know you want to
Contest score= 5/7, Next= Peach, Zelda, Terra
KingBartz | Posted 9/20/2006 9:28:07 AM | message detail
Grah, Carmen is being destroyed...
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The end of the world is nigh! Earth Life Remaining: 13 days, 11 hours, 32 minutes
SC2K6: 7/8 Today's pick: Zelda
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/20/2006 9:28:26 AM | message detail
You'd rather a DID like Zelda win the contest than, say, Snake? OR GANONDORF?

TRAITOR!
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Heroic Mario | Posted 9/20/2006 9:30:47 AM | message detail
DID's rather have swords; that's right, Zelda has Teh Sword Factor!



...But I would rather Ganon win!

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 9/20/2006 9:34:28 AM | message detail
If this ends up being the highest scoring match in terms of votals.... I fear Ganondorf might actually have a shot against snoic. If this keeps up, things look very good for Ganon > Vincent.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
chocoboslayer | Posted 9/20/2006 9:41:08 AM | message detail
*demands a moment of silence for Carmen*
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Contest Score: 7/8! Next Match: Zelda vs. Carmen Sandiego
~~Choco~~
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/20/2006 9:42:07 AM | message detail
*takes part*
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Samurai7 | Posted 9/20/2006 9:43:39 AM | message detail
LOUD NOISES!!!
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It's a sad fact that you had to derail this topic because you are afraid of the power of the PS3 -- cade
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/20/2006 9:43:57 AM | message detail
*cheers loudly*

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.