GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 365
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/19/2006 9:56:37 PM | message detail |
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lol lopen Peach > Jill is anything but a sure thing, but between NintendoFAQs still going strong and Jill's performance on Sheena I'm feeling pretty good about having Peach in my bracket. --- Commit it to memory. |
| Haste_2 | Posted 9/19/2006 9:56:38 PM | message detail |
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Average prediction percentage so far: 80.97%. It's been quite a
predictable contest so far, but not quite as much as the first 8
matches of SC2K4. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| Lopen | Posted 9/19/2006 9:58:48 PM | message detail |
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Sheena > Peach... that's what I'm saying. You just wait! --- Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/19/2006 10:01:14 PM | message detail |
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Though I would laugh so hard if Jill did
to Sheena and Peach what Squall did to her and Luigi in 2k3. Turning a
heavy favorite into someone even weaker than the character that wasn't
even supposed to be in their league? Heh. But this isn't 2003, much as Squareites and Smurf might wish it to be. --- Commit it to memory. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/19/2006 10:02:44 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, while I'm not ruling out Jill being able to win, I've only felt
better and better about Peach > Jill the past two days. So far,
we've seen Zelda, Peach, and Nidoran F
impress, not to mention Samus getting a quad and Daisy doing okay for
being practically a color-swap (in so many more ways than
Sub-Zero/Scorpion, don't dare say it). Samus, Zelda, and Peach have all
got very high seeds (with Peach outseeding Jill, no less), and Peach
has probably gained a little bit more of a legit fanbase now thanks to
having her own game. Add to it the much higher DS ownership than last
year and NSMB coming out over the summer, not to mention that SMB
and/or SSB >> RE (which ain't that far ahead of MK) as well as
Peach being playable in many spin-off games, being more classic, more
recognizable, what have you... ...the pressure is on Jill now, that's all. --- Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest. It still hurts to be rear-ended like that..... |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/19/2006 10:08:49 PM | message detail |
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Well, my first rally failed miserably. Poor Carmen ;__; Unless this is weird NES/Apple II SFF >_> Carmen for 2k7!!! TuRtLe ~~~ I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory. |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/19/2006 10:10:06 PM | message detail |
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On Yoshi/Dante, we've had NO reliable readings on Yoshi. Ever. So is it
all that unreasonable to just assume he's as strong as SC2K5 Kirby? Dante 46.77% 40,526 [Yoshi] 53.23% 46,123 TOTAL VOTES 86,649 ~*ST*~ --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI |
| Haste_2 | Posted 9/19/2006 10:10:56 PM | message detail |
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But this isn't 2003, much as Squareites and Smurf might wish it to be. Actually, Square characters haven't gotten weaker since then, except for maybe Tidus. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 9/19/2006 10:14:37 PM | message detail |
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Wow, zelda has really climbed in percentage those last two updates. Quick without thinking: Does zelda have a shot at finishing with over 85% this match? --- When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory! |
| Haste_2 | Posted 9/19/2006 10:15:32 PM | message detail |
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Yes. I was thinking possibly 87%, actually, though that might be a little too high, now. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/19/2006 10:16:28 PM | message detail |
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Carmen takes the day vote. We all know how kids these days want to desperately be like we were back in the 90's. TuRtLe ~~~ I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/19/2006 10:19:32 PM | message detail |
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It's not like Yoshi/Bowser was a bad-reading, Yoshi/Luigi tells us that
-- whether Luigi's still weaker than Yoshi or not -- that they're
fairly close, the common opponent in Ryo Hazuki says Dante > Yoshi,
and both Laharl and Pac-Man say Yoshi should be around the same area he
was in at 2k4. Add to it that DMC3:SE has been released since last year
(and I think DMC3 became a Greatest Hit to sell more) and Dante is
out-seeding Yoshi even more than he was last year (1 to 3, 2 to
6)...then let's not forget that Kirby was ahead of Yoshi by just a lil'
bit in 2k3 and, thanks to adjustments, 2k4 as well, and you may want to
consider Kirby being even a little bit over-rated for either rSFF or
Bowser having the pic-advantage against Solid... ...Yoshi still has the intangables like "it's ****in' Nintendo" and the DS has certainly picked up on popularity, but I don't think any of the Yoshi's we've see in the contest thus far can beat last year's Dante, even if the Devil Division is over-rated. --- Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest. It still hurts to be rear-ended like that..... |
| FastFalcon05 | Posted 9/19/2006 10:20:40 PM | message detail |
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(in so many more ways than Sub-Zero/Scorpion, don't dare say it) You so didn't just go there. You can just about literally copy sub-zero into microsoft paint, click the little paint bucket, fill in everything blue with yellow, and bam! Scorpion. Daisy is Luigi's girl, Peach is Mario's. They are not color swaps! --- Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest. |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 9/19/2006 10:21:16 PM | message detail |
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Quick without thinking: Does zelda have a shot at finishing with over 85% this match? I do believe she'll end up at or above 85%. --- ...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible. |
| The_Ocelot | Posted 9/19/2006 10:21:20 PM | message detail |
| no |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 9/19/2006 10:22:19 PM | message detail |
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As for that DS jump in popularity, it went from around 33% or so ownership before the contest in 2005 to around 55% before this contest. Quite a jump there. --- ...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/19/2006 10:22:48 PM | message detail |
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You suck, Falcon! =P I'm afraid Zelda'll break 85%, too. I'll say 86% for Zelda, it seems..... --- Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest. It still hurts to be rear-ended like that..... |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 9/19/2006 10:26:17 PM | message detail |
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If she keeps this up 85% might be the floor of where zelda could
finish... she might even hit a few more percent higher. If she were to
finish with 85% that would probably rank Carmen Sandiego as one of the
five or so weakest characters we've ever seen based on a constant
zelda... I think a noticable increase isn't out of the question. Then
again, maybe I'm jumping to conclusions, since it really isn't out of
the question or even surprising for Carmen to be that weak. --- When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory! |
| transience | Posted 9/20/2006 2:31:04 AM | message detail |
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eh, Carmen is a joke character to me. she'd get a similar percentage if
she was up against Link. you'd have to be just about completely unknown
to lose to Carmen Sandiego. which prompts the question - does Daisy beat Carmen Sandiego? (I HATE YOU, FEMALE BRACKET.) --- iddqd "MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage |
| PlatinumSmurf | Posted 9/20/2006 2:48:36 AM | message detail |
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But this isn't 2003, much as Squareites and Smurf might wish it to be. YOU TAKE THAT BACK! --- Smurf The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism |
| PlatinumSmurf | Posted 9/20/2006 2:52:10 AM | message detail |
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Actually, Square characters haven't gotten weaker since then, except for maybe Tidus. I'm yet to hear somebody actually explain Tidus. I mean he nearly lost to Claire, almost got doubled by Megaman and got owned by Kirby. But he also scored 42% on a Sonic that was more popular than Cloud, almost beat Ganondorf, demolished the King and beat Shadow who equalled Mario for half a match. He's unpredictable at best, and when you throw him into an SFF duel aganist Squall. Anything could happen. He could win, he could get doubled. --- Smurf The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism |
| PlatinumSmurf | Posted 9/20/2006 2:58:44 AM | message detail |
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I think any doubt about who the favorite is between these two can
be laid to rest, given that SFF matches usually have much lower vote
outputs than everything else. Traditionally Nintendo and Square characters draw in higher votes than normal and well, it was still 4000 behind Jill's match so I wouldn't draw anything from that. The relevant stat here, IMO is Wario. Peach would need to be considerably stronger than Wario to defeat Jill. The fact that she never got more nominations than Wario and failed to qualify in normal character battles suggests that she isn't. I also would find it very difficult to believe that Peach could resist a doubling from Shadow like Wario did. Now, while Jill didn't show any amazing strength aganist Sheena. She didn't have to. This is still the same character that defeat Kirby in 2002 and indirectly Luigi in 2003. Peach is a long way down that Nintendo heirarchy and Jill hasn't dropped that much. --- Smurf The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/20/2006 3:07:49 AM | message detail |
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Tidus is an oddball, which is a surprisingly astute observation you
make there. While I personally would never entertain him beating
Squall, there is an actual case there that can be made apart from
simple Tidus fanboyism. Going purely by the 2002 stats, Tidus is projected to get 64% on Squall before SFF. While that role is more or less reversed today thanks in great part to our good friend KHF, you have to wonder if the core Final Fantasy fanbase might prefer Tidus to Squall enough to create a kind of rSFF situation not unlike the one theorized for Mario/Samus. Of course, this would have to assume that Tidus wasn't overrated in 2002 -- this is where that pesky WDF comes in -- and that Squall wasn't underrated in 2002 thanks to his Snake. Then you've got to assume that Tidus hasn't dropped since 2002, or at least that his core FF fanbase hasn't dropped in relation to Squall enough for him to not get SFF. Which reminds me, you have to assume that the fanbase favors him enough for him to get SFF in the first place. Which, seeing as how it's Tidus, is quite doubtful. Even if the KH series didn't exist, I'd take Squall in that matchup. So, yeah. If Auron was here this would be a much better matchup for Squall, especially with his KH2 role evening out things. Alucard/Tidus is also a far better matchup...bah. --- Commit it to memory. |
| PlatinumSmurf | Posted 9/20/2006 3:12:09 AM | message detail |
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Tidus has always finished above Auron, so I think that it's really more
hope that Auron would gain for a close match, than anything else. One thing worth noting is that Tidus is infamous for breaking brackets. He was slight favourite in a an untested 4 pack in 2003, he lost his first match. He was slight underdog aganist Shadow in 2004. He won. And in 2005, our friends the x-stats told us that he'd cruise aganist Kirby. He lost. I just wonder when he's given little chance aganist Squall, if he's going to suprise everyone and actually put in a good performance. >_< --- Smurf The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/20/2006 3:12:28 AM | message detail |
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Looking at Tidus, though, I'm quite surprised to see that he's not as
far behind Sora's 2k4 value as I thought. And by that, I mean he's
actually a fair bit ahead. His 2k4 value is a lil' behind, but...man,
Tidus/Sora is a tough matchup for me now, even after KH2. Even if Sora
is indirectly stronger, would the core FF fanbase abandon a true FF
lead for him? --- Commit it to memory. |
| PlatinumSmurf | Posted 9/20/2006 3:21:38 AM | message detail |
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Tidus v Sora, over the years. Talk about incosistency on both ends. Sora has ranged from Fodder to a potential noble beater and back. Tidus has ranged from a potential noble beater to midcarder. --2003-- Tidus 68.06% 60,757 Sora 31.94% 28,515 TOTAL VOTES 89,272 --2004-- Tidus 46.99% 42,060 Sora 53.01% 47,444 TOTAL VOTES 89,504 --2005-- Tidus 56.65% 50,643 Sora 43.35% 38,755 TOTAL VOTES 89,398 --- Smurf The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism |
| shadow8021 | Posted 9/20/2006 3:48:33 AM | message detail |
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Tidus was largely overrated in 2002. If his poll with Sonic did not start late, Sonic would've easily broken 60%. --- Character Battle Score: 8/8 Today's Pick: Zelda |
| PlatinumSmurf | Posted 9/20/2006 3:54:22 AM | message detail |
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In 2002, Tidus was overrated due to WDF and late poll. In 2003, Tidus was overrated due to Magus overperformance In 2004, Tidus was underrated due to MegaMan overperformance and/or MM/Link SFF In 2005, Tidus was overrated due to Kirby rSFF on Bowser. I'm completly baffled as to what strength Tidus has. @_@ --- Smurf The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/20/2006 4:00:55 AM | message detail |
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And Sora was never fodder, he was just SFF'd by Aeris. --- Peach vs. Daisy / Bracket: Peach / Vote: Daisy (6/7) Tomorrow / Bracket: Zelda / Vote: Zelda |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/20/2006 4:03:22 AM | message detail |
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I'd say Tidus is around 27-28% on BL. --- Zelda vs. Carmen Sandiego / Bracket: Zelda / Vote: Zelda (7/8) Tomorrow / Bracket: Terra / Vote: Terra |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/20/2006 4:36:34 AM | message detail |
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[Tidus] was slight underdog aganist Shadow in 2004. He won. Smurf, Tidus had just over 70% over the brackets against Shadow. --- Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest. It still hurts to be rear-ended like that..... |
| PlatinumSmurf | Posted 9/20/2006 4:47:13 AM | message detail |
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I'm talking about board favourite. Shadow had the slight edge since
they were practically level in the stats and I guess nobody really
likes Tidus. <_< --- Smurf The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/20/2006 5:33:17 AM | message detail |
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In considering Ganon/Vincent, it was enough to know that Vincent
more or less equaled Squall to safely choose Ganondorf (and Bowser)
over him. Squall > Ganon in 2005 AND 2006! --- "...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow |
| consolefreak | Posted 9/20/2006 5:34:15 AM | message detail |
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Squall > Ganon in 2005 AND 2006! --- CB: 8/8. Today: Zelda vs. Carmen Tomorrow: Terra vs. Kerrigan |
| Who Cares? | Posted 9/20/2006 5:59:04 AM | message detail |
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Man, we really could have used Yuffie, Riona, Cammy, & Lyndis in this thing! Poor Carmen :( --- Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Kasumi (Septemeber 26th) *Just 20 days until Tales of the Abyss* |
| __Smurf__ | Posted 9/20/2006 6:07:55 AM | message detail |
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This would be such a kickass, unpredictable and actually intresting female bracket. ~~Spazer Division~~ (1) Samus Aran (8) Nidoran F (4) Ada Wong (5) Sheena Fujibayashi (3) Rikku (6) Krystal (2) Kairi (7) Rinoa Heartily ~~Limit Division~~ (1) Tifa Lockhart (8) Carmen Sandiego (4) The Boss (5) Cammy (3) Amy Rose (6) Lyndis (2) Princess Peach (7) Celes Chere ~~Triforce Division~~ (1) Zelda (8) Cortana (4) Aeris Gainsborough (5) Sarah Kerrigan (3) KOS-MOS (6) Marle (2) Jill Valentine (7) Yuffie Kisaragi ~~Aeon Division~~ (1) Yuna (8) Alyx Vance (4) Chun Li (5) Roll (3) Terra Branford (6) Kasumi (2) Lara Croft (7) Princess Diasy --- Smurf. The Cream of Knuckles Fanboyism. |
| MegaReincarnate | Posted 9/20/2006 6:08:59 AM | message detail |
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Looks like Nidoran F > Carmen Sandiego. And I know how these things almost never work out, but screw it, I'm starting this bandwagon. Zelda > Samus --- Hispanics 5 | Whites 5 Asians 5 | Blacks 4 |
| leo3leo | Posted 9/20/2006 6:11:36 AM | message detail |
| A few questions; who is the 'Red' of such infamy that someone as accused of being his alt, and how is the creator of the stats topic decided? |
| __Smurf__ | Posted 9/20/2006 6:13:33 AM | message detail |
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Red is a running where everyone accuses everyone else of being a red alt. The real red left this place years ago. --- Smurf. The Cream of Knuckles Fanboyism. |
| slice sabre | Posted 9/20/2006 6:15:39 AM | message detail |
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I don't understand how a nobody like Carmen got in the contest anyway. --- Genius may have its limitations, but stupidity is not thus handicapped. The Veteran of Nothing |
| charmander6000 | Posted 9/20/2006 6:25:43 AM | message detail |
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And Zelda breaks 85% --- "I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 9/20/2006 7:48:18 AM | message detail |
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Squall > Ganon in 2005 AND 2006! Negative! --- ...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible. |
| TheCruelAngel | Posted 9/20/2006 8:01:14 AM | message detail |
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Squall 2006 > Snake 2006! Bank on it! --- Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!? Squall: ...Flower. |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/20/2006 8:08:42 AM | message detail |
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I like your boldness! It's like an HM prediction, only realistic! --- "...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 9/20/2006 8:17:40 AM | message detail |
| Holy crap. If Zelda keeps going up, I'll start to
wonder if even Samus could match this performance. There's no way I'll
believe that Carmen is weaker than Yuri, and Zelda is only 2% off
Samus's result in that match. --- The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD Coming October 3, 2006 |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 9/20/2006 8:18:22 AM | message detail |
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I like your boldness! It's like an HM prediction, only realistic! Hah! Ganon over Sonic is far more realistic! --- ...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible. |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 9/20/2006 8:20:15 AM | message detail |
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And right now, assuming the after school vote goes Zelda's way, this
might turn into a rather scary performance. Last night when I held
Zelda constant and put her ending at 85%, it had Yuri escaping with
~52% over Carmen. If Zelda keeps climbing like this all day, Yuri would
do one of those Ulti style blowouts. Of course, I think it's fair to guess that Zelda may have increased since last year. --- ...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/20/2006 8:21:54 AM | message detail |
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Zelda broke 84%...and 85%...and, with enough bad luck, 86%. I'm about to start dropping bombs on *****es if this keeps up. Smurf, Shadow was the slight favorite in the BOP by, what, one person? I think in the Gurus that year that they were either tied or Tidus had the lead by one, so the board was split to say the least... ...then couple that with Tidus having 70.##% of the total brackets, and you don't really have room to still call Shadow the favorite, even slightly -- the board was split at best, and the casuals killed Shadow prediction-wise. --- Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest. It still hurts to be rear-ended like that..... |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/20/2006 8:22:51 AM | message detail |
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...Yuri > Carmen in the stats right now? Hey, how is Carmen expected to do against Ms. Pac-Man? --- Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest. It still hurts to be rear-ended like that..... |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/20/2006 8:23:11 AM | message detail |
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*assuming Zelkda is constant from last year. --- Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest. It still hurts to be rear-ended like that..... |