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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 364

Ayvuir | Posted 9/18/2006 9:53:04 AM | message detail
Joanna a cert to win that match yes?
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Being drunk doesn't make me do stupid things, it gives me an excuse to do stupid things - Caelus
The Real Truth | Posted 9/18/2006 9:54:44 AM | message detail
Do people just choose to ignore the first Perfect Dark game which was for a NINTENDO console? Joanna will have Nintendo support as well as a mix of some of the Xbox's. Joanna is also the main character of her game.
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Let's welcome Chaos.
4/6 Next picks- Jill > Sheena, Peach > Daisy
Samurai7 | Posted 9/18/2006 9:57:17 AM | message detail
I went with the "I don't know who Cortana is so she loses in my bracket strategy."

I've only ever played halo multiplayer, and every character I don't know or barly know has lost thus far >.>
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It's a sad fact that you had to derail this topic because you are afraid of the power of the PS3 -- cade
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/18/2006 9:59:48 AM | message detail
From: The Real Truth
Do people just choose to ignore the first Perfect Dark game which was for a NINTENDO console? Joanna will have Nintendo support as well as a mix of some of the Xbox's. Joanna is also the main character of her game.

No.. we're not ignoring it. In fact several people in this topic are saying her first game will propel her to victory if she wins, including me.
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CB06 - Score: 6/6 Rank: Tied - 1st Yesterday's Pick: The Boss
Today's Pick: Jill Valentine Tomorrow's Pick: Princess Peach
HaRRicH | Posted 9/18/2006 10:21:59 AM | message detail
No, the original PD hasn't been forgotten by any means -- we just know right now that JD is at 15%-16% last year, when we saw Joanna before PD0. We know PD >>> PD0, N64 >>> Xbox/360, and Cortana will take many of the votes Joanna could have benefitted from by being in a 360 game...so it's now almost solely a matter of where Cortana is at. If the Halo fanbase is rabid for her like they have been for MC, Halo, and Halo 2 OR if HBO linked to the match (though they haven't linked lately)...Joanna and most of our brackets could hurt.

Like I already said though, Cortana feels very Kerrigan-y to me. Halo/Starcraft is incredibly known for its multi-player action though many fans of the series can enjoy the single-player as well. However, it's not like people buy Halo/Starcraft for the single-player, nor do most of them think of the single-player mode again once they beat it. In the single-player, Cortana/Kerrigan are big-name characters to know...but outside of the single-player, there's no need to ever know her, nor do they have that many fans*.

Cortana is a NPC, and Kerrigan is only playable in the RTS sense, that she's almost exactly like most other units you'll use or at least easily mix her up with that group, so that's not so much better. Halo and Starcraft -- no matter how screwy their match went -- probably have comparable strength, and they's pretty close together in the Top 100 List as well (match = SC > Halo, list = Halo > SC).

That covers most of the bases about why Cortana should be the Kerrigan of Halo, except that I think Halo fans are both more rabid than Starcraft fans and are more familiar with the single-player than Starcraft (from both personal experience and anecdotal evidence). Also, in a rematch, I would totally take Halo again against Starcraft...but, despite Cortana > Kerrigan (believe it or not, that's no proud achievement!), it shouldn't be enough to topple Ms. Dark.



*Don't dare give me anything about Kerrigan having many fans -- between how badly she did in the unadjusted stats, the chance that the Devil Division is over-rated, and the Starcraft site from last year that had the poll showing Kerrigan barely winning in a favorites-poll of Starcraft characters...no, just don't.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
The Real Truth | Posted 9/18/2006 10:25:10 AM | message detail
People are using her match against Mario to gauge her strength? That would be like trying to determine Ness' strength by his match with Mario.
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Let's welcome Chaos.
4/6 Next picks- Jill > Sheena, Peach > Daisy
PlatinumSmurf | Posted 9/18/2006 10:26:17 AM | message detail
Someone explain to me how Cortana and Jade got in in front of Rinoa......
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Smurf
The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism
HaRRicH | Posted 9/18/2006 10:27:57 AM | message detail
Hey, I'm a fan of Joanna being SFF'd as much as the next guy, but don't fool yourself into thinking she was SFF'd much, either. She was at 15.12% last year unadjusted, and she'd be doing great to have been at a legit 17% before PD0.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/18/2006 10:28:07 AM | message detail
I think CjayC removed many FF girls from the bracket. I can't see Tifa and Aeris getting high seeds and Yuffie not even get enough nominations for an 8th seed.
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Supporter of Daisy.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/18/2006 10:30:54 AM | message detail
Thankfully, people hate Yuffie. She's got very few people who consider her a favorite and well over half of FF fans know her for bein' the stealin' lil' ***** she is.

OH AND SHE'S OPTIONAL TOO
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
PlatinumSmurf | Posted 9/18/2006 10:32:14 AM | message detail
Doesn't stop Vincent. He's even worse. At least Yuffie has a side quest.
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Smurf
The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism
The Real Truth | Posted 9/18/2006 10:32:34 AM | message detail
Seriously, Barret or Cid needs to make a contest. Actually that's it, I'm rallying for Barret soon.
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Let's welcome Chaos.
4/6 Next picks- Jill > Sheena, Peach > Daisy
The Real Truth | Posted 9/18/2006 10:37:31 AM | message detail
Here we go.
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Nominate Barret Wallace for SC2k7, you know you want to Contest score= 5/7
Haste_2 | Posted 9/18/2006 10:39:36 AM | message detail
In 2K4 Ryu Hayabusa was expected to beat Lloyd Irving with 63.85% based on their matches against Zero. So, if Ryu H in 2K5 is similar to Jill in 2K6, Sheena is slightly weaker than Lloyd currently.

I think Cortana will be a good contender for the weakest female (well, aside from Jade), though I have no real reasoning for this.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 9/18/2006 10:43:05 AM | message detail
Do people just choose to ignore the first Perfect Dark game which was for a NINTENDO console? Joanna will have Nintendo support as well as a mix of some of the Xbox's. Joanna is also the main character of her game.

Not to mention that when she faced off against Mario the ONLY console she had ever appeared on was Nintendo.

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Explicit Content
Philadelphia's Path to Cheer Up Emo Kids (1-1) - Next week @ SanFran 49ers.
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 9/18/2006 10:46:50 AM | message detail
Screw this Barret and Cid talk, Cait Sith for SC2K7!

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Explicit Content
Philadelphia's Path to Cheer Up Emo Kids (1-1) - Next week @ SanFran 49ers.
cyko | Posted 9/18/2006 10:56:21 AM | message detail
and don't forget about the last intangible of Joanna vs. Cortana: the Match Pic!!

seriously, though, we're pretty certain that both of these ladies will be weaklings with few hardcore fans. therefore, your average voter will look at the match pic and see:

http://canalgame.com/data/docs/20051004034042/11283462783.jpg

against:

http://www.the-junkyard.net/images/characters/halo2/cortana_holo.jpg

then they will say, "Joanna Dark the FHM cover babe FTW!!"

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/18/2006 11:19:36 AM | message detail
Harrich, you make a good case, but I think Halo's single player gets a lot more credit than you think it does. There are tons of fan groups dedicated to unearthing the Halo story. Remember I Love Bees? That had nothing to do with the multiplayer but it created a big buzz. Hell, I think the Halo novels sold at least marginally well, considering there are 3 of them and another coming. Obviously the books are selling otherwise they wouldn't continue to put them out (btw, Cortana has a semi-big role in the novels).

Also, a lot of people played the single player a ton, at least Halo 1's. Most Halo fans have dedicated time to completing it on Legendary, the hardest difficulty, and also have dedicated time to doing speed runs and find out practically every glitch/trick in the game within months of release. So obviously they care somewhat about the single player.
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CB06 - Score: 6/6 Rank: Tied - 1st Yesterday's Pick: The Boss
Today's Pick: Jill Valentine Tomorrow's Pick: Princess Peach
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/18/2006 11:20:12 AM | message detail
Oh, and I HIGHLY doubt any FHM pics will be used in the match pic. I'm giving that a 1% chance...
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CB06 - Score: 6/6 Rank: Tied - 1st Yesterday's Pick: The Boss
Today's Pick: Jill Valentine Tomorrow's Pick: Princess Peach
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/18/2006 11:21:23 AM | message detail
Halo's single player is popular among its fans, yes. Halo 2's single player mode is not, however, which is why I give Arbiter no shot at being worth anything in a contest. Heck, he might not even be stronger than Cortana.
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Commit it to memory.
Haste_2 | Posted 9/18/2006 11:29:00 AM | message detail
I've gotten minus 2 in Round 1 of EVERY character contest since 2K3, including the Villains Contest. My trend will continue this year. I've already missed Kairi vs. Claire Redfield. Looking ahead, I have Vincent over Ganondorf, and otherwise I'm cookie-cutter.

So, if we want to the perfects to be destroyed well by Round 1's end, Vincent must win, so that my second lost point can come from a REAL upset!

On another note, I always get -3 in Round 1 of every contest involving games...--;

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
HaRRicH | Posted 9/18/2006 11:31:10 AM | message detail
Smurf, 'twas fine sarcasm you missed in the caps buddy. =P


DtG, I Love Bees did cause a big stir, but I would think that was more for Halo 2 in general than just its single-player, even if the information being released was related to the single-player. People were looking for anything new for Halo 2, and the hunt was as big or bigger than the actual realization of whatever info that was found...or so it seemed to me.

Other than that, I'll loosen up on the single-player a bit more because beating the Legendary levels is a pretty popular thing to do...but I'm not close to your level as far as that goes, so we should still probably agree to disagree there, heh.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/18/2006 11:32:01 AM | message detail
From: Karma Hunter
Halo's single player is popular among its fans, yes. Halo 2's single player mode is not, however, which is why I give Arbiter no shot at being worth anything in a contest. Heck, he might not even be stronger than Cortana.

Yeah, a vast majority hate the Arbiter and only wanted to play as MC. Myself, I didn't really mind it, but I didn't prefer the Arbiter either.
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CB06 - Score: 6/6 Rank: Tied - 1st Yesterday's Pick: The Boss
Today's Pick: Jill Valentine Tomorrow's Pick: Princess Peach
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/18/2006 11:33:43 AM | message detail
From: HaRRicH
Smurf, 'twas fine sarcasm you missed in the caps buddy. =P


DtG, I Love Bees did cause a big stir, but I would think that was more for Halo 2 in general than just its single-player, even if the information being released was related to the single-player. People were looking for anything new for Halo 2, and the hunt was as big or bigger than the actual realization of whatever info that was found...or so it seemed to me.

Other than that, I'll loosen up on the single-player a bit more because beating the Legendary levels is a pretty popular thing to do...but I'm not close to your level as far as that goes, so we should still probably agree to disagree there, heh.


Yeah, how about we just stop arguing and we'll see what happens a week from now. I'm giving you a 70+% chance of being right that Joanna will win anyway, I was just taking a chance on an upset.
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CB06 - Score: 6/6 Rank: Tied - 1st Yesterday's Pick: The Boss
Today's Pick: Jill Valentine Tomorrow's Pick: Princess Peach
Kaxon | Posted 9/18/2006 11:36:01 AM | message detail
And I didn't even see that poll asking who people thought would win. That was while my internet connection was cut, and I didn't check past PotDs. Wow, people think Sora or somebody other than a top seed has a better chance of winning than Sonic? That's...surprising. Well, not so much Sora, but saying somebody else would is.

Considering that everyone else includes Mega Man (AND 27 other characters), I don't think that's too surprising.
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CATS's Road to the Character Battle V Championship
Round 1: Sonic
HaRRicH | Posted 9/18/2006 11:36:14 AM | message detail
I'd give it more upset potential than some other more debated matches, at least. I don't think it'll happen, but I'm up for a wait-and-see stance here too.....
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Haste_2 | Posted 9/18/2006 11:37:18 AM | message detail
I think a lot of people voted "other" thinking that Clinkerothio would be in the contest.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
KingBartz | Posted 9/18/2006 11:58:15 AM | message detail
Jill's performing as I expected. Hopefully I can salvage my shattered bracket somehow.
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The end of the world is nigh! Earth Life Remaining: 15 days, 9 hours, 2 minutes.
SC2K6: 5/6 Today's pick: Jill Valentine
HaRRicH | Posted 9/18/2006 12:31:32 PM | message detail
Sheena's kicking ass with the after-school vote.

You know how I mean that, too, shut up.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/18/2006 12:31:37 PM | message detail
From Zylo the wolf Posted 9/18/2006 1:28:07 PM
I think CjayC removed many FF girls from the bracket. I can't see Tifa and Aeris getting high seeds and Yuffie not even get enough nominations for an 8th seed.

I can. Nobody likes Yuffie except for the underage hentai creeps on this board.

TuRtLe
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I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
meche313 | Posted 9/18/2006 12:31:56 PM | message detail
And Jill is dropping like a rock now. The last four updates have been below 61% and the trend looks like it will keep up.
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Happy Happyists 4th on the Oracle Team Challenge. 3rd on Spread Betting!
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/18/2006 12:32:49 PM | message detail
This point is as good as mine!
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Commit it to memory.
KingBartz | Posted 9/18/2006 12:33:46 PM | message detail
Jill just lost .1% in ten minutes.

Nothing big, but it should strengthen my oracle pick.

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The end of the world is nigh! Earth Life Remaining: 15 days
SC2K6: 5/6 Today's pick: Jill Valentine
PlatinumSmurf | Posted 9/18/2006 12:34:24 PM | message detail
Sheena has hacked off .5% in the last hour and is still going strong. o_0

Tos wins the after school vote?
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Smurf
The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/18/2006 12:35:25 PM | message detail
Gah, c'mon Jill, use your wider fanbase and actual appeal to get me back on the oracle track.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
KingBartz | Posted 9/18/2006 12:35:51 PM | message detail
No way. Sheena hasn't even come close to winning an update the whole match.

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The end of the world is nigh! Earth Life Remaining: 15 days
SC2K6: 5/6 Today's pick: Jill Valentine
HaRRicH | Posted 9/18/2006 12:38:23 PM | message detail
I wouldn't say ToS is good with it -- we know RE usually ain't special with the day vote by ANY means, Claire got killed by Kairi with it, and Lloyd gained on Wesker with it as well. I don't know how Kratos did on Diablo, but Diablo tends to have a strong day-vote so I would think he lost that one, heh...

...but I wouldn't think ToS is too good with it. Maybe a lil' above average, but I'm skeptical for now.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/18/2006 12:41:07 PM | message detail
A quick glance at Kratos/Diablo leads me to believe that Kratos did slightly better in the day, or at least was able to go even during it. There wasn't much in the way of percentage shifting in that one, though...
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Commit it to memory.
PlatinumSmurf | Posted 9/18/2006 12:41:42 PM | message detail
Well, I'd say Sheena is on a tear but she's still losing 100 votes per update. -_-

But in comparison to what Jill was doing to her earlier... she is certainly winning the after school vote. From what Resi has shown, they'd surrender the school vote to Kefka. <_<


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Smurf
The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism
HaRRicH | Posted 9/18/2006 12:43:18 PM | message detail
...did Sheena just get nearly 44% of that last update?
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/18/2006 12:44:05 PM | message detail
Man, Sheena's taking this off a bit too fast for my liking, though. If she keeps this up, I may lose the point to the Guest...

...or worse, Moltar! =O
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Commit it to memory.
KingBartz | Posted 9/18/2006 12:44:39 PM | message detail
Even if Sheena doubled Jill on every update from now on, she still couldn't win.
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The end of the world is nigh! Earth Life Remaining: 15 days
SC2K6: 5/6 Today's pick: Jill Valentine
PlatinumSmurf | Posted 9/18/2006 12:44:44 PM | message detail
I'm concerned now that Jill v Peach could turn into another Claire v Kairi with the school vote being the decider.
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Smurf
The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/18/2006 12:45:11 PM | message detail
Dude...we know.
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Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/18/2006 12:46:21 PM | message detail
It could be another Kairi/Claire, but something in the back of my mind now tells me we've got another The Boss/Celes on our hands...
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Commit it to memory.
PlatinumSmurf | Posted 9/18/2006 12:47:10 PM | message detail
Hopefully, and Jill is The Boss.
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Smurf
The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism
HaRRicH | Posted 9/18/2006 12:47:45 PM | message detail
Oh, I'm not worried about Sheena winning -- she should have 40% right now and be doubling Jill, and she would still probably fall just shy of winning if she kept that up for every update until the match ended.

This just makes the Sheena/Lloyd comparisons interesting again.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
HaRRicH | Posted 9/18/2006 12:48:26 PM | message detail
Then Peach is Naked Snake!
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Master Moltar | Posted 9/18/2006 1:11:19 PM | message detail
Great to see Sheena back under the spread. And for KH's sake, I hope it ends near 64%, as that was my original pick for the Crew (still had 64% for the Oracle though).

And directly, Lloyd would beat Sheena, but indirectly, I can't see her that far under him, if at all. Jill '03 would double Lloyd, but Jill '04 would only get 61% on Lloyd. I don't think Jill is as weak as her 2004 value says, but not as high as '03 either. Perhaps indirectly, Lloyd >= Sheena, which I'd have no problem with.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Jill vs. Sheena - Bracket: Jill - Vote: Sheena (5/6)
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/18/2006 1:15:15 PM | message detail
Remember that Lloyd being underrated due to Mario/Zero is a very real possibility. As is Jill simply being underrated; even Jill 2k3 would *barely* double Lloyd as is. If Sheena is anywhere close, and Mario/Zero SFF is real (Luigi/Zero will help us on this front) that means good things for her...
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Commit it to memory.