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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 364

HaRRicH | Posted 9/17/2006 9:13:52 PM | message detail
I don't see Terra, Joanna, AND Squall going below 70%. Maybe two out of three, probably one...but not all three.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/17/2006 9:14:32 PM | message detail
No they won't, because I'm betting a lot of casual people are gonna pick Cortana. So whoever wins the % will be below 70.
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CB06 - Score: 6/6 Rank: Tied - 1st Yesterday's Pick: Tifa
Today's Pick: The Boss Tomorrow's Pick: Jill Valentine
cyko | Posted 9/17/2006 9:16:05 PM | message detail
for the record - since Ryu Hayabusa and Lloyd were in the same 4-pack, it's pretty easy to figure out that Lloyd would be expected to get 36.15% against Hayabusa. take it for what you will, but if Sheena is a little below Lloyd, then 34 - 35% for Sheena sounds about right.

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/17/2006 9:16:08 PM | message detail
Impressive by Sheena. Pretty big percentage cut.
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Demyx > Axel
Z1mZum owned me in the Guru Contest with his mad skills!
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/17/2006 9:16:56 PM | message detail
From Draco1214 Posted 9/18/2006 12:06:17 AM #241
Looks like a certain princess has to be shaking in her dress about now...<_<

MAN Jill is doing awesome against a fodder character we've never seen Peach is so screwed.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2006 9:17:39 PM | message detail
Think Jill can get up to 68 during the day?

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
cyko | Posted 9/17/2006 9:17:43 PM | message detail
maybe he was talking about Daisy? >_>

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/17/2006 9:18:11 PM | message detail
Well, at least this match is more varied than stupid Boss/Celes.

And I've been thinking, what if for some reason, everyone likes Tidus better than Squall, and super rSFFs him? I mean, it's not likely but...it would be funny.
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caps
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/17/2006 9:19:36 PM | message detail
For no reason at all, here's that wonderful Tales of Symphonia favorite character poll from Namco's website!!


Lloyd 11% [ 146 ]
Genis 6% [ 86 ]
Colette 5% [ 69 ]
Kratos 27% [ 343 ]
Raine 4% [ 55 ]
Sheena 15% [ 186 ]
Zelos 12% [ 159 ]
Presea 10% [ 131 ]
Regal 4% [ 54 ]
Total Votes : 1229


Not particularly useful, but this is probably the last time we'll see it!!

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/17/2006 9:20:15 PM | message detail
To be fair, the Hayabusa we saw in 2k5 should be a lil' stronger than the Hayabusa we saw in 2k4...so, unless Sheena >= Lloyd (which HM says there was a ToS-favorite poll on Namco's site saying practically that), then Jill should look to be about where she was, if not a touch stronger thanks to the REsurgence.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Phediuk | Posted 9/17/2006 9:20:31 PM | message detail
Sheena doing MUCH better than I expected.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
Draco1214 | Posted 9/17/2006 9:20:39 PM | message detail
For the record, if Sheena = Lloyd and Jill finishes with a doubling, Jill ranks at around 25% on BL -- above Hayabusa.

And I was joking, Ulti, hence the shifty eyes.
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Character Battle V Score - 6/6 points
Current Prediction - Jill Valentine vs. Sheena Fujibayashi
Janus5000 | Posted 9/17/2006 9:20:59 PM | message detail
Colette 5% [ 69 ]
Raine 4% [ 55 ]
Regal 4% [ 54 ]


Imbeciles.

...Is Sheena trying to take the night vote or something?
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/17/2006 9:21:20 PM | message detail
And I've been thinking, what if for some reason, everyone likes Tidus better than Squall, and super rSFFs him? I mean, it's not likely but...it would be funny.

It'd be awesome because Tidus is one of the best in the male half!!

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/17/2006 9:22:01 PM | message detail
...way to beat me there, HM. =P

If Sheena is stronger than Lloyd though, then Princess Peach could be in some trouble. Even if she's not far behind him, Peach may be in for a scare at least. I can't wait to see where she's actually at in strength though.....
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
HaRRicH | Posted 9/17/2006 9:22:56 PM | message detail
It would be awesome due to guaranteeing no perfect brackets this year, heh.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2006 9:23:05 PM | message detail
Tidus = whiny *****

You know it to be true!

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/17/2006 9:23:25 PM | message detail
Well, I would wager that Lloyd is at least equal to her, if not a good bit stronger. That is a poll primarily based entirely around the more hardcore ToS fans...and Sheena just barely got away from Lloyd there. I would imagine on a site like this one, Lloyd would do better than her after seeing this match.

It probably was a bit too optimistic to think Sheena would fit in between Lloyd and Kratos. Heh.

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/17/2006 9:25:43 PM | message detail
Sheena just keeps chopping that percentage down.
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Demyx > Axel
Z1mZum owned me in the Guru Contest with his mad skills!
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/17/2006 9:26:17 PM | message detail
The closer Jill gets to my prediction percentage the better! Keep chopping away!

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/17/2006 9:28:08 PM | message detail
True, but it's also just ToS fans in that poll, which describes most of the people who'll vote for Sheena here, heh. It's worth consindering, and I don't see Sheena being far away from Lloyd one way or another...but I'm not ruling the possibility out for now.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Phediuk | Posted 9/17/2006 9:34:03 PM | message detail
Heroic Mario, overly optimistic?

UNPRECEDENTED.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
FastFalcon05 | Posted 9/17/2006 9:37:16 PM | message detail
No they won't, because I'm betting a lot of casual people are gonna pick Cortana. So whoever wins the % will be below 70.

We frequently underestimate the casuals though, take yesterday as a fine example of that. They know who Cortana is, after all, they did get her into the contest. I don't think she'll have considerable bracket support, even though she'll do just fine in the poll.
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
greatone10 | Posted 9/17/2006 10:51:34 PM | message detail
Cortana could gain considerable bracket support against a lot of characters around Joanna's level, but not against Jo herself, considering the Xbox fanbase overlap.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest.
Lopen | Posted 9/17/2006 10:59:01 PM | message detail
Casual bracketmaker sees "Halo vs something else".
Casual bracketmaker does not see X-Box vs X-Box.
Casual bracketmaker has irrational hatred for X-Box!
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
Janus5000 | Posted 9/17/2006 11:18:50 PM | message detail
Hopefully voters see the same thing!
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
HaRRicH | Posted 9/17/2006 11:20:35 PM | message detail
I actually never thought of the Xbox overlap...

...but imagine if the relentlessness and favoritism of those who vote for her is carried over from those who vote for MC or Halo or in the Top 100 List. If that was to stay true for her for the most part, no matter where her strength is at, that would take away a lot of Joanna's boost from PD0. If Cortana is at, say, 16% on Link, then Joanna/Cortana could actually be very interesting.....



I think she's gonna be a lil' weaker though, not to mention I don't see Halo/MC fans being as fanatic about her. Still though, the match may still prove interesting.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Lopen | Posted 9/17/2006 11:20:55 PM | message detail
I don't foresee any SFF in Cortana/Joanna. And honestly I'd put the SFF going Cortana's way if there is. Halo getting SFFed doesn't seem logical to me.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
HaRRicH | Posted 9/17/2006 11:23:25 PM | message detail
Oh, and as a lil' note, I wish Cortana and Marle would have switched places. Not only would we get to see where Marle should actually be, but we could also compare how Cortana did against Aeris to how MC did and have perhaps the best idea yet to just how dedicated the Xbox fanbase could be.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/17/2006 11:27:03 PM | message detail
From: greatone10
Cortana could gain considerable bracket support against a lot of characters around Joanna's level, but not against Jo herself, considering the Xbox fanbase overlap.

There's not really an overlap, PDZ was mediocre and didn't sell too well. Did it even get over 500k copies? Halo and Halo 2 both sold 8 mil+.
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CB06 - Score: 6/6 Rank: Tied - 1st Yesterday's Pick: The Boss
Today's Pick: Jill Valentine Tomorrow's Pick: Princess Peach
HaRRicH | Posted 9/17/2006 11:37:09 PM | message detail
There's bound to be an overlap of some sort -- considering the Xbox was the home of the two biggest FPS games this past generation (yes, I thought of HL2, but correct me if I'm not giving it proper credit), the 360 is the follow-up system of it, and PD0 was a hyped FPS lauch game while there is no Halo competition in site...there almost HAS to be a good sized overlap, no matter its sales.

It's just a matter of if it means anything or not, and I'm guessing it means very little, but the idea of how rabid the Halo fanbase supposedly is makes it interesting to think about.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/17/2006 11:42:23 PM | message detail
Yes, it was hyped a year ago, but right now PDZ's message board has virtually no activity and I doubt anyone really cares too much about the game on GameFAQs. People still care about Halo and Cortana. The thing that could drive Joanna to a win is the original Perfect Dark I think, as that game is beloved by many fans including myself.
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CB06 - Score: 6/6 Rank: Tied - 1st Yesterday's Pick: The Boss
Today's Pick: Jill Valentine Tomorrow's Pick: Princess Peach
PlatinumSmurf | Posted 9/18/2006 12:01:27 AM | message detail
Since Jill seems to be performing as expected, that would mean that Peach would have to be significantly more popular than Wario to have a shot.
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Smurf
The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 9/18/2006 3:42:46 AM | message detail
It probably was a bit too optimistic to think Sheena would fit in between Lloyd and Kratos. Heh.

I never really understood why anyone would think Sheena was stronger than Lloyd, at least by a significant margin anyway. Sure the hardcores may like her better, but when you get into a poll with the size of the numbers that we do, it's VERY hard to end up being stronger than the lead role. Kratos is an exception, one I saw coming from a mile away. Sheena isn't Kratos though... this is kinda like how I have no idea why people think WARIO of all ****ing people will be stronger than Peach.

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Explicit Content
Philadelphia's Path to Cheer Up Emo Kids (1-1) - Next week @ SanFran 49ers.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/18/2006 6:06:55 AM | message detail
It was still GameFAQs's most anticipated 360 game before it was released though -- the 360 owners here are bound to have played it. Though it certainly fell short of expectations, that's still crucial new exposure for her. Even without it though, she's still at least at 15% and probably up a percent or two higher if you think Mario over-performed on her, which would be a level that's tough for Cortana to reach before we count in PD0...

...plus, Cortana could really suffer from the whole Kerrigan-effect -- a sweet comparison, really, considering how Starcraft and Halo get along.....
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Phediuk | Posted 9/18/2006 6:19:00 AM | message detail
I'm having a difficult time thinking that Cortana would beat Joanna. From what I've heard, Cortana is a complete nothing character. Wouldn't be able to tell you, considering I've only played Halo multiplayer. If Cortana was in FFVII, then we'd talk. But Halo?...Nah.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/18/2006 6:22:25 AM | message detail
Cortana scares me...I mean, she's obviously the most prominent character in Halo's campaign (there's a reason why Cortana's voice actress gets top billing instead of MC's). If this were PDZ Joanna v. Cortana, I'd take Cortana no problem.

As it stands, I think Perfect Dark for the N64 is popular enough to give Jo the win here. And if not...I hate fodder/fodder matches too much to really care that much. <_<
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Commit it to memory.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/18/2006 6:34:09 AM | message detail
Since Jill seems to be performing as expected, that would mean that Peach would have to be significantly more popular than Wario to have a shot.

pff Peach won't even make it to Jill.
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Supporter of Daisy.
Who Cares? | Posted 9/18/2006 6:39:45 AM | message detail
Oh, and as a lil' note, I wish Cortana and Marle would have switched places. Not only would we get to see where Marle should actually be, but we could also compare how Cortana did against Aeris to how MC did and have perhaps the best idea yet to just how dedicated the Xbox fanbase could be.

If there's any female that can claim to be screwed by bracket placement, it's Marle. And Sheena definately should have been slotted in one of the 4/5 matchups. *Sigh* this bracket really could have been great if Ceej swapped a few of these characters on both sides :(
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Kasumi (Septemeber 26th)
*Just 22 days until Tales of the Abyss*
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 9/18/2006 6:40:45 AM | message detail

MAN Jill is doing awesome against a fodder character we've never seen Peach is so screwed.


If you can defeat fodder characters, you have every ability needed to dismantle Peach. ¬_¬
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My World is still Smurf!
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/18/2006 8:22:40 AM | message detail
The Boss frickin owned Celes after I left last night. Over 61% over a main FF character (granted, one that sucks)?

The Boss > Tifa
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
Hi-ho, Hi-ho, Z1m Zum, Z1m Zum...our guru champ.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/18/2006 8:35:53 AM | message detail
Wow, The Boss had over 2/3 of the brackets against Celes?

...Anyone thinking that MGS characters might have rollover bracket support, a la the Villains Contest, with Metal Gear making the Final Four there? Of course, that doesn't explain much when she went up against a Final Fantasy character, but it's worth noting.

And I didn't even see that poll asking who people thought would win. That was while my internet connection was cut, and I didn't check past PotDs. Wow, people think Sora or somebody other than a top seed has a better chance of winning than Sonic? That's...surprising. Well, not so much Sora, but saying somebody else would is. Solid Snake seeming to be the overall favorite is awesome, but that doesn't mean it'll translate into success. After all, that precontest 2003 poll wasn't indicative of success, that's for sure.

Looks like the spread for Jill/Sheena was pretty accurate, after all. I thought Ms. Fujibayashi could do a little better, but oh well. At least Jill blowing her out doesn't have me wavering against Peach next round.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/18/2006 9:24:17 AM | message detail
Man, I just realized that we have to wait until Riku/Yoshi to find a seeding upset.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Who Cares? | Posted 9/18/2006 9:27:18 AM | message detail
The Boss/Celes -- 56916 [4th]
Samus/Nidoran F -- 52372 [2nd]
Jill/Sheena -- 51651
Rikku/Lenneth -- 50761 [3rd]
Kairi/Claire -- 50137 [5th]

Not sure if we lost an update or two thanks to the site acting up around the 8am hour, but still good nonetheless.

And going by the 2k5 adjusted, Sheena's currently a shade under Jo Dark, who is just under Lloyd. And her % is back on the upswing.
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Kasumi (Septemeber 26th)
*Just 22 days until Tales of the Abyss*
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/18/2006 9:32:47 AM | message detail
Lloyd and Kratos did pretty well in the day in their matches. And Jill is more known for her night performance.

Maybe we can see it drop to 64.5%

Wouldn't that put her around the same level as Lloyd? Granted that is if Jill didn't drop much or anything...
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/18/2006 9:33:59 AM | message detail
Of course, it's still entirely possible that Jill 2004 is too low.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 9/18/2006 9:40:09 AM | message detail
I took Jill with 63%, still having it work out that Sheena ends up below Lloyd. I just don't think Jill is as low as she is in '04.

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Explicit Content
Philadelphia's Path to Cheer Up Emo Kids (1-1) - Next week @ SanFran 49ers.
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/18/2006 9:45:14 AM | message detail
From: Karma Hunter
Cortana scares me...I mean, she's obviously the most prominent character in Halo's campaign (there's a reason why Cortana's voice actress gets top billing instead of MC's). If this were PDZ Joanna v. Cortana, I'd take Cortana no problem.

As it stands, I think Perfect Dark for the N64 is popular enough to give Jo the win here. And if not...I hate fodder/fodder matches too much to really care that much. >_>


Exactly, and it's not like Halo fans hate Cortana or something. She's not like Navi who constantly annoys you, and she's most likely the second biggest character in the game. The only other prominent character I can think of is Captain Keyes in Halo 1, who got very little screen time, while Halo 2's campaign isn't nearly as loved, and I can't really think of a major character there besides Miranda Keyes, who sucks (the Arbiter and other Covenant characters aren't really well liked by Halo fans either).

Jo is a main character in a series well below Halo. She's still the favourite, but Halo fans will not forget Cortana and I'm gonna say she'll get at least 45%. My reasoning is... if 50% of people vote MC over the likes of Frog/DK than certainly Cortana has a shot at beating Joanna.
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CB06 - Score: 6/6 Rank: Tied - 1st Yesterday's Pick: The Boss
Today's Pick: Jill Valentine Tomorrow's Pick: Princess Peach
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/18/2006 9:47:38 AM | message detail
I'm getting a Kerrigan vibe out of Cortana.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/18/2006 9:48:49 AM | message detail
Man, I'm not looking forward to Joanna/Cortana at all. That might be the match with the lowest combined strength of the two characters.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow