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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 364

transience | Posted 9/17/2006 12:33:55 AM | message detail
er, 54% on Auron is more impressive than 54% on Dante. you know what I meant!
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/17/2006 1:02:04 AM | message detail
I went with Ganondorf for one reason: My gut. Too often I try to make a really logical pick, you can tell from my brackets that they're pretty cookie cutter. Hell, even this year I only have 1 pick going against the Guru consensus (Cortana).
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CB06 - Score: 6/6 Rank: Tied - 1st Yesterday's Pick: Tifa
Today's Pick: The Boss Tomorrow's Pick: Jill Valentine
voltch | Posted 9/17/2006 1:11:49 AM | message detail
yay i got another match right.

it's unusual for me to get so many first round matches right in a row.
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Z1mZum humiliated me to hell and back in the Best.Series.Ever contest.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/17/2006 1:19:03 AM | message detail
From transience Posted 9/17/2006 3:33:55 AM #051
er, 54% on Auron is more impressive than 54% on Dante. you know what I meant!

54% on Dante when Dante had most of the bracket support isn't something to pass off, I think.

~*ST*~
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greatone10 | Posted 9/17/2006 1:43:13 AM | message detail
Honestly, I think this ends up like Tidus vs. Shadow where they have the close match everyone expects them to, and then the winner faces Sonic and bombs like hell.
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Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest.
Janus5000 | Posted 9/17/2006 1:44:04 AM | message detail
And Smurf looks like a genius for saying Sonic breaks 60%.
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transience | Posted 9/17/2006 1:48:16 AM | message detail
54% on Dante when Dante had most of the bracket support isn't something to pass off, I think.

but then, why would that change? I don't think Vincent will have bracket support vs. Ganondorf. I'd expect Ganon with at least 60% of the brackets.

I look at Ganondorf this way: 51% on Tidus to 54% on Auron. who do you think's stronger, Tidus or Auron? I say Auron every time, yet he beat him by more than he beat Tidus. he may not be at 36% on BL or whatever it is, but he's not overrated to hell and back either. I'd place him above where I'd place Vincent.

debatable? absolutely, but my faith is in the Nintendo character here.


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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/17/2006 4:07:45 AM | message detail
Woo! Go Boss ^_^

So, if we take Celes to be a % weaker than Terra, where does that put The Boss? I suck at the maths involved here, but doesn't this mean she avoids a Dante Doubling?
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/17/2006 4:12:09 AM | message detail
I feel so stupid for picking Celes right now, at least Claire put up a fight against Kairi....

BTW did Aerith have a big role in KH2? I just realized that my whole bracket depends on her winning over Zelda (And Sonic winning the male side of course)
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Supporter of Daisy.
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/17/2006 4:15:53 AM | message detail
She was mostly useless and (no pun intended) her voice actor sounded like a damn zombie.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/17/2006 4:42:27 AM | message detail
Basically, Ganondorf being favored against Vincent is based off of warped stats from when everyone thought Magus 2003 was legit, and a villain's contest in which Sephiroth was anti-voted to hell and back in the last two rounds.

I'd say it's more based off of Samus SFFing Ganon (yes, it did happen) and Samus being potentially underrated in 2k5. Why would she be the only Nintendo character not to boost?

Also, today's match looks nice for Ganon, considering all the Boss = Big Boss and Celes = Terra comparisons that were going on earlier.

54% on Dante when Dante had most of the bracket support isn't something to pass off, I think.

Bracket-voting is virtually irrelevant when people care about both characters and the match is not SFF.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/17/2006 5:03:53 AM | message detail
I need some stats expert to figure this out for me >_>

I'm trying to figure out where Celes falls if she's slightly weaker than Terra:

Terra: 17.10%
Conker: 17.05%
Zidane: 17.02%
Jin Kazama: 16.83%

Let's say slightly stronger than Jin.

But now I have ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA where to plug The Boss in presuming she ends up on...let's say, 58%.

...
...
...

*feels stupid*
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/17/2006 5:05:39 AM | message detail
HOLD IT


Terra 42.93% 37,191
Revolver Ocelot 57.07% 49,435
TOTAL VOTES 86,625

Revolver Ocelot wins with 57.07% of the vote!
A 12,244 vote margin of victory.

Presuming Celes as a % weaker than Terra... that puts The Boss as stronger than Ocelot as of right now.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/17/2006 5:10:18 AM | message detail
...Which probably means she breaks the fodder line. Wooyay.
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/17/2006 5:11:12 AM | message detail
I must play MGS 3 and see ihow awesome the Boss is someday >_>
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Supporter of Daisy.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2006 5:48:58 AM | message detail
Well, this looks to be a really consistant match. Which I find interesting for 2 fodder characters. Maybe Boss has some strength after all.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/17/2006 5:50:15 AM | message detail
The Boss isn't fodder.
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Samurai7 | Posted 9/17/2006 5:50:16 AM | message detail
Maybe Celes is stronger than Terra and the influx of new visitors just happen to prefer MGS <.< hahaha
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It's a sad fact that you had to derail this topic because you are afraid of the power of the PS3 -- cade
Kratos_42 | Posted 9/17/2006 6:03:30 AM | message detail
Hey Turtle, I'd just like to point out that when you were whining about how Axem's going to fall off the leaderboard, that you had Carmen Sandiego winning the whole thing with that account. Somehow, you should have seen the fall off the leaderboard there just a mite bit sooner.
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He wields the blade of a fallen hero, but now he is the hero, and it is the others who fall. He is rising.
consolefreak | Posted 9/17/2006 6:47:51 AM | message detail
I was just looking at the bracket to see how long I would remain perfect, and I stumped upon Riku-Yoshi.

Does anyone else get the feeling that this match is being totally overlooked?

The BoP favours Yoshi 83 to 7. This is the Riku that went nearly equal with Frog. You can call Frog overrated all you want, but you have to give him an Xs (base Link) of at least 24.

Yoshi has just a tad more than that. How much could he have been SFF'd by Mega Man, being the huge fan favourite that he is? Sure he beat Luigi, but this is exactly where the fan favourite thing comes in. Yoshi got less on Laharl than Tifa did on Vyse. Extrapolating their performances based on Vyse beating Laharl with 60% the year prior, Tifa beats Yoshi with 66.89%, even worse than she does just taking Yoshi Xs based on Mega Man.

Based on these statistics, Riku would have a great match with Yoshi as it is, actually being the favourite. Now I have no doubt that Yoshi would've beaten Riku last year, but KH2 will account for a lot. Add to this the fact that Riku will be the bracket favourite (3 seed + KH) and he has a lot of things going in his favour.

If anything, I can't believe I went over this match without questioning the winner. If I had the chance, I'd actually change my bracket now..
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CB: 5/5. Today: The Boss vs. Celes. Tomorrow: Jill vs. Sheena
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/17/2006 6:54:32 AM | message detail
I doubt Riku would gain that much, and I'd rather put Yoshi closer to 29-30% on BL.
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The Boss vs. Celes Chere / Bracket: The Boss / Vote: The Boss (4/5)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Jill / Vote: Jill
consolefreak | Posted 9/17/2006 6:58:24 AM | message detail
I doubt Riku would gain that much

Why is that?

and I'd rather put Yoshi closer to 29-30% on BL.

Tifa failing to break 56% on Yoshi just doesn't fall in line with their performances on Vyse/Laharl though. Or on Sonic/MM, for that matter.

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CB: 5/5. Today: The Boss vs. Celes. Tomorrow: Jill vs. Sheena
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/17/2006 7:16:19 AM | message detail
Well, if you honestly expect Riku to gain that much, you may as well consider Sora/MM a toss-up.

Tifa failing to break 56% on Yoshi just doesn't fall in line with their performances on Vyse/Laharl though.

Looking at Yoshi's past matches before 2005, I think it's more Vyse related than anything. Yoshi can't just drop like a rock when he was already considered to be ar ound 27-28%.

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The Boss vs. Celes Chere / Bracket: The Boss / Vote: The Boss (4/5)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Jill / Vote: Jill
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/17/2006 7:17:04 AM | message detail
Er, drop like a rock in the year Nintendo boosted, even. I doubt he's DK's level.
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The Boss vs. Celes Chere / Bracket: The Boss / Vote: The Boss (4/5)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Jill / Vote: Jill
consolefreak | Posted 9/17/2006 7:24:50 AM | message detail
Well, if you honestly expect Riku to gain that much, you may as well consider Sora/MM a toss-up.

Funny is that I was thinking about this just a minute ago, and told myself I was overreacting. MM > Yoshi more than Sora > Riku though, easily. And I am expecting Sora to approach 45%, I wouldn't be too surprised if he broke it.


Looking at Yoshi's past matches before 2005, I think it's more Vyse related than anything. Yoshi can't just drop like a rock when he was already considered to be ar ound 27-28%.

The thing is that his performance with MM nearly perfectly falls in line with this. Although it is weird to see Yoshi dropping. Sad thing is there has never been an accurate reading for Yoshi. Losing to MM is actually the most accurate loss I can think of (certainly less SFF than losing to Bowser or Link).


Bottom line is, I think Riku's chances are being underestimated here. Should he be considered the favourite? Perhaps not. But don't write him off.
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CB: 5/5. Today: The Boss vs. Celes. Tomorrow: Jill vs. Sheena
Samurai7 | Posted 9/17/2006 7:27:17 AM | message detail
I'm with you on this one cf. I thought about it earlier but decided Yoshi made more sense with the nintendo boost.
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It's a sad fact that you had to derail this topic because you are afraid of the power of the PS3 -- cade
consolefreak | Posted 9/17/2006 7:29:10 AM | message detail
I'm with you on this one cf. I thought about it earlier but decided Yoshi made more sense with the nintendo boost.

Yes this was my "reasoning" as well. I should've given this match more thought, at least.

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CB: 5/5. Today: The Boss vs. Celes. Tomorrow: Jill vs. Sheena
longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/17/2006 7:41:46 AM | message detail
I'm glad The Boss is showing some strength and whooping some Celes ass. *Looks at the whole Red thing* Bleh, no biggie.
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I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/17/2006 7:42:13 AM | message detail
So what does this make of the likes of Conker? Ryo Hazuki? We can at least say that his performance on Conker puts him well above Riku to at least win edge him out even if he got a crazy boost and bracket support.
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The Boss vs. Celes Chere / Bracket: The Boss / Vote: The Boss (4/5)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Jill / Vote: Jill
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/17/2006 7:47:48 AM | message detail
Though now that I think about it, if Samus boosted (from her 2k4) level a bit, then KH2, and then the bracket support, I think he can give us a scare.
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The Boss vs. Celes Chere / Bracket: The Boss / Vote: The Boss (4/5)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Jill / Vote: Jill
longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/17/2006 7:52:17 AM | message detail
You're horrid at imping people, slick. Stick to bad suicides.

Why does this **** even matter? <_<
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
Tediz247 | Posted 9/17/2006 7:59:45 AM | message detail
Great to wake up and see my favorite female character (and possibly my favorite overall, if I wasn't so stubborn) doing so well. This makes me wonder even more about Terra/Kerrigan, though. Is FFVI really that bad? I like to think that The Boss has decent strength, but I kind of doubt it.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end.
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Master Moltar | Posted 9/17/2006 8:03:33 AM | message detail
The Boss getting the morning vote. Alright...

At this point, I'm thinking Terra > Celes, but not by much. Still thinking about where The Boss goes in relation to Ocelot. I'll probably go with equal to or slightly above.

Kerrigan is just weak though. I'll be shocked if she looks much better against Terra than her match against Vincent indicates (as in makes it a close match).
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
The Boss vs. Celes - Bracket: The Boss - Vote: The Boss (4/5)
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 9/17/2006 8:17:17 AM | message detail
Anyone else have picks that they are seriously worrying about right now?

I'm pretty worried on my prediction that Yoshi>Dante, same with Sonic>Crono and Zelda>Aeris.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/17/2006 8:19:16 AM | message detail
Zelda>Aeris, Zero>Luigi, Samus>Crono, and .. Sub-Zero>Master Chief. >_>
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The Boss vs. Celes Chere / Bracket: The Boss / Vote: The Boss (4/5)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Jill / Vote: Jill
Tediz247 | Posted 9/17/2006 8:19:36 AM | message detail
I'm a bit worried about Terra > Kerrigan and Vincent > Ganon, and quite worried about Snake > Mega Man, Sephiroth > Cloud, and Zero > Kirby. Still, this is the best I've felt about a bracket since the Villains contest.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end.
ZSB [aX]
LordOfDabu | Posted 9/17/2006 8:20:12 AM | message detail
I have Riku winning his match, actually. I too was surprised to hear no one talk about it.

On another note, looking at today's match and how Snake won his poll over Crono and gang makes me wonder.
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laughingman1 | Posted 9/17/2006 8:23:27 AM | message detail
I see The Boss getting atleast 35% on Tifa. Maybe near 40%.
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i thought what i would do was pretend i was one of those deaf mutes but should i
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/17/2006 8:25:19 AM | message detail
The Boss isn't getting 40%, that's too high.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 9/17/2006 8:28:26 AM | message detail
If the Boss gets 40% on Tifa, Solid Snake wins the male bracket.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
SephirothG | Posted 9/17/2006 8:29:37 AM | message detail
lol this was funny to wake up to.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/17/2006 8:31:51 AM | message detail
Man, it's interesting to see how the female bracket is already doing pretty good in vote totals. Just think of how it'll be when we finally get to the males bracket which actually include good mid-carders.
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The Boss vs. Celes Chere / Bracket: The Boss / Vote: The Boss (4/5)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Jill / Vote: Jill
consolefreak | Posted 9/17/2006 8:32:08 AM | message detail
I see The Boss getting atleast 35% on Tifa. Maybe near 40%.

Heh, no. She'll be lucky to escape the tripling.

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CB: 5/5. Today: The Boss vs. Celes. Tomorrow: Jill vs. Sheena
consolefreak | Posted 9/17/2006 8:33:25 AM | message detail
Well, that's a bit exaggerated as well. She'll probably escape the tripling. No way she's breaking 33% though.
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CB: 5/5. Today: The Boss vs. Celes. Tomorrow: Jill vs. Sheena
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/17/2006 8:40:36 AM | message detail
Great to wake up and see my favorite female character doing so well.


MUST BE NICE.
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ExThaNemesis? More like ExThOWNEDNemesis! ND>PSU What a blowout; the Lions must suck, but thats the way ExTha likes it.
Tediz247 | Posted 9/17/2006 8:42:23 AM | message detail
You'll feel better when Sephiroth beats Cloud in the Battle Royale, ExTha.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end.
ZSB [aX]
LinkLegend27 | Posted 9/17/2006 8:47:12 AM | message detail
tag
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CB5:5 out of 5.
BSE:78 out of 80.
Who Cares? | Posted 9/17/2006 9:00:45 AM | message detail
Votals at the halfway mark:

Tifa/Ivy -- 64797
The Boss/Celes -- 56916
Samus/Nidoran F -- 52372
Rikku/Lenneth -- 50761
Kairi/Claire -- 50137

New 2nd place on the way. And my money's on Aeris/Marle to be the next top vote grabber, which by the way is on a Saturday.
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DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/17/2006 9:32:11 AM | message detail
I'm guessing the Boss gets 30% on Tifa.

And the picks I'm most worried about are Yoshi > Dante and Samus > Crono. I normally wouldn't worry about Samus... but Corruption was delayed, and my record on final matches is 0-5 not counting Villians... (Link in 2k3, then OOT, then Cloud, then Crono, then Final Fantasy) so I'm just naturally worried my curse will continue.
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CB06 - Score: 6/6 Rank: Tied - 1st Yesterday's Pick: Tifa
Today's Pick: The Boss Tomorrow's Pick: Jill Valentine
Big Bob | Posted 9/17/2006 9:41:02 AM | message detail
Yoshi/Dante has been killing me since the moment I saw it.

How about: what matches would you be glad to lose points on?
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September 22nd! Amy Rose > KOS-MOS
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