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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 362

AmazingKirby | Posted 9/16/2006 12:39:49 PM | message detail
Matches occuring on a weekend with KH characters in them:

Riku/Yoshi
Rikku/Kairi
Sora/Mega Man

This obviously means Riku will beat Yoshi, and Sora will beat Mega Man on the day which happens to be the day before my birthday! But it'll be a close race all night until 12:00 when Sora wins by 1 vote and it becomes my birthday! >_>
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caps
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/16/2006 12:48:06 PM | message detail
The only good thing about that kind of a result would be the assurance of Snake making the Final Four.
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Commit it to memory.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/16/2006 12:49:14 PM | message detail
Hah! Don't take Snake > Squall for granted, my friend! KHII boost!
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/16/2006 12:50:50 PM | message detail
Whoa, I just realized that Ganon/Vincent is on a Saturday. Awesome!
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/16/2006 1:12:02 PM | message detail
Good, I'd hate to be in school for that match.
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Tifa vs. Ivy / Bracket: Tifa / Vote: Tifa (3/4)
Tomorrow / Bracket: The Boss / Vote: The Boss
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/16/2006 1:12:57 PM | message detail
I had a thought last night: one of the reasons we haven't had any extremely close matches since 2k4 could be because of CJayC's increased anti-cheating strategies. Many of us have noted that, seemingly for no reason at all, extremely close matches defy all voting trends (CT going even with LttP in the daytime, Frog going even with Chief at night). The only time we've even come close to a match like that since then was with Vercetti/Kefka, and that proved to be because of cheating as well. Now, however, Ceej's much better at catching the cheaters, so the chances of having a nailbiter that lasts to the end are infinitesimally small.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/16/2006 1:14:36 PM | message detail
Sonic/Mega Man qualifies as a good close match, I think. But yeah, cheating goes up the closer a match is, obviously, because it makes a difference.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/16/2006 1:21:54 PM | message detail
Well, yeah, Sonic/MM was great, but I'm more talking about the kind of match that ends with both characters within 100 votes of each other. That just doesn't happen anymore.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/16/2006 1:25:22 PM | message detail
I guess it could be because of the voter shift? >_>
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Tifa vs. Ivy / Bracket: Tifa / Vote: Tifa (3/4)
Tomorrow / Bracket: The Boss / Vote: The Boss
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/16/2006 1:25:45 PM | message detail
It's not as though that was a greatly common occurrence. Only 5 matches have ever ended within 100 votes, only 10 have finished within 300, and only 12 within 500.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
transience | Posted 9/16/2006 1:28:05 PM | message detail
Tifa's dropping pretty hard with the day vote here. I wonder if she'll stabilize. the vote totals are pretty freaking high too.

I have this funny feeling today that The Boss will be at Wesker's level. not sure why, just a general feeling. I really don't think Celes's picture as bad as everyone else seems to - I mean, we all knew we were going to get that picture. it's as recognizable as any of those FF6 pictures are and The Boss isn't exactly awesome looking. she's got, like, a mullet! and isn't exactly hot!
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/16/2006 1:29:33 PM | message detail
Tifa's been dropping since the beginning of the match, really. It's not just the day vote.

she's got, like, a mullet

And what is not hot about a woman with a mullet, I ask?
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/16/2006 1:30:39 PM | message detail
Meh, I can't see The Boss being as forgettable as Wesker. Even people who have played through most of the REs oftentimes have trouble remembering who the hell he is.

The Boss will just be a gauge of how truly popular MGS3 is...I mean, I know I'd never take Liquid Snake to lose to Celes, and Solidus Snake should pull it out as well. They do have that whole 'Snake' thing to help them, but still.
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Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 9/16/2006 1:30:56 PM | message detail
well I figured she'd stabilize given Vyse/Tifa last year, where she just kept climbing all day. though I guess she didn't exactly impress vs. Luigi and Sonic.. though those two are good with the day vote so that's not really saying anything.

as for mullets.. uh... you're on your own there.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 9/16/2006 1:30:57 PM | message detail
I'm with Leon, mullets make me hard all over.

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Explicit Content
Philadelphia's Path to Cheer Up Emo Kids (1-0) - Next week vs. New York Giants.
transience | Posted 9/16/2006 1:32:28 PM | message detail
roadkill makes you hard, EC.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/16/2006 1:32:54 PM | message detail
Oh, and as for females, I'd be pretty freaking confident if Meryl was here instead of The Boss. I just don't have that much faith in MGS3, it seems.
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Commit it to memory.
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 9/16/2006 1:33:33 PM | message detail
So?

Also, if Link were to face off against Super Macho Man with this pic (http://www.nesplayer.com/nintend-o-vision/2.php_files/supermachoman.gif), who would win?

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Explicit Content
Philadelphia's Path to Cheer Up Emo Kids (1-0) - Next week vs. New York Giants.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/16/2006 1:34:02 PM | message detail
Last year, Tifa established patterns that were different from the rest of the FFVII characters: Strong night vote, weaker day vote. Vincent, Cloud, and Sephiroth were different. They always get anti-board voted.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Layzerbeam | Posted 9/16/2006 1:52:04 PM | message detail
I want an AIM chatroom. =/

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ROCKET TROUSERS!
Flaming is when you just do nothing but dont votte in contest trolling is just some hairy monster
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/16/2006 1:52:27 PM | message detail
Hah! Don't take Snake > Squall for granted, my friend! KHII boost!

I've actually been seriously considering that.
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
Hi-ho, Hi-ho, Z1m Zum, Z1m Zum...our guru champ.
Cloud_StrifeFTW | Posted 9/16/2006 1:53:47 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
Layzerbeam | Posted 9/16/2006 1:54:22 PM | message detail
I am unimpressed.

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ROCKET TROUSERS!
Flaming is when you just do nothing but dont votte in contest trolling is just some hairy monster
Cloud_StrifeFTW | Posted 9/16/2006 1:54:26 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/16/2006 1:56:13 PM | message detail
Meh, Snake/Squall is like this for me -- do you think Squall's roles in KH and KH2 are enough to overcome the deficit he had against Snake in their first match? Then you've got to add in Snake having MGS3 and Subsistence since then as well as being announced for SSBB and having MGS4 coming up...

I mean, I guess it has a *shot* at happening. Kinda like Sonic has a shot at beating Samus...
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Commit it to memory.
Super Luigi | Posted 9/16/2006 1:56:15 PM | message detail
THEJackSparrow
Posted 9/16/2006 1:49:14 PM
message detail Hah! Don't take Snake > Squall for granted, my friend! KHII boost!

You cant be serious.
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Currently playing : Resident Evil 4(GC),NCAA Football 07(Xbox),Kirby Canvas Curse(DS).
XBL Gamertag - SuPer MiKe 86.
Super Luigi | Posted 9/16/2006 1:57:06 PM | message detail
People thinking Squall can take Snake is like last year when they though Zelda could take Snake, Or even Sora could. lolz
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Currently playing : Resident Evil 4(GC),NCAA Football 07(Xbox),Kirby Canvas Curse(DS).
XBL Gamertag - SuPer MiKe 86.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/16/2006 1:57:18 PM | message detail
Man, nobody cares about sissy suicides anymore FTW...especially from noob-accounts.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/16/2006 1:57:23 PM | message detail
You can't say anything without sounding like a pompous jerkwad either. What's the problem?
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Cloud_StrifeFTW | Posted 9/16/2006 1:58:34 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/16/2006 1:59:58 PM | message detail
I mean, I guess it has a *shot* at happening.

That's what I'm thinking. It's not a guaranteed SMB vs. Madden type deal, at least. Did anybody in the BOP/Guru take that upset?
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Hi-ho, Hi-ho, Z1m Zum, Z1m Zum...our guru champ.
BlackOmnimon_v3 | Posted 9/16/2006 2:00:40 PM | message detail
In before the ban.
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Wiiiiiiii!!!!-CjayC
-AMTOVSJ-
Cloud_StrifeFTW | Posted 9/16/2006 2:01:07 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
Aprosenf | Posted 9/16/2006 2:02:09 PM | message detail
Ain't never seen a suicide in the stats topic before. *Sigh*
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2006 2:03:13 PM | message detail
lol work

Anyways, I hope Tifa stabilizes right where she is. I may end up within 1% on my Oracle pick, which is considerably better than I've been this contest so far.

And I can't wait for Celes/Boss.

Boss takes board vote, Celes takes the night, a split during the day, and Celes takes the evening?

TuRtLe
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Turtle on his laptop | Contest analysis:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383
Draco1214 | Posted 9/16/2006 2:04:36 PM | message detail
This might actually be a close wire-to-wire match since both characters should have identical voting trends -- great night votes and horrible day votes.
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Character Battle V Score - 4/4 points
Current Prediction - Tifa Lockhart vs. Ivy Valentine
dethfdddddh | Posted 9/16/2006 2:05:49 PM | message detail
A Metal Gear character sharing the day vote with a FF character? Was Terra that bad with it?
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z1mzum was the one to fill my dark soul with LIIIIGHHHT!
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/16/2006 2:05:55 PM | message detail
That's what I'm thinking. It's not a guaranteed SMB vs. Madden type deal, at least. Did anybody in the BOP/Guru take that upset?

Not a one, I think. I can't blame them. If Snake/Squall was really SFF, and Snake/Sora was SFF, it's hard to imagine Squall pulling it off. At least Sonic was equal with Samus, once upon a time...
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Commit it to memory.
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/16/2006 2:06:25 PM | message detail
This might actually be a close wire-to-wire match since both characters should have identical voting trends -- great night votes and horrible day votes.

Much as I love a good w2w match (the hours where I was awake for Claire/Kairi were great last night)...if this is true, expect Zylo/ExTha with Claire-like behaviour tomorrow.
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
Hi-ho, Hi-ho, Z1m Zum, Z1m Zum...our guru champ.
Draco1214 | Posted 9/16/2006 2:07:00 PM | message detail
A Metal Gear character sharing the day vote with a FF character? Was Terra that bad with it?

Yes. She let Dante gain 3-4% on her throughout the day.

And everyone knows about Kefka's "legendary" day vote.
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Character Battle V Score - 4/4 points
Current Prediction - Tifa Lockhart vs. Ivy Valentine
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/16/2006 2:07:35 PM | message detail
*nods* I maybe expected one or two. The occasional loony who thinks Squall's boost could take him over Snake or rSFF him.
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
Hi-ho, Hi-ho, Z1m Zum, Z1m Zum...our guru champ.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/16/2006 2:07:44 PM | message detail
A Metal Gear character sharing the day vote with a FF character? Was Terra that bad with it?

Dante rose around 3% with the day vote against her. Then there's the fact that Kefka gets killed with the day vote in every match he's in...

I see Boss taking the board and night vote, Celes taking the day (or going even), and the evening vote being split.
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Commit it to memory.
Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2006 2:11:05 PM | message detail
But everyone's in agreement that it should be a close match right?

TuRtLe
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Turtle on his laptop | Contest analysis:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383
cyko | Posted 9/16/2006 2:11:25 PM | message detail
Tifa/Ivy and Boss/Celes pics rawk, mainly because my prefered characters (Boss and Ivy) have the pic advantages.

ummmmmm......... how exactly does The Boss have the pic advantage? she totally looks like a man. and not one of those pretty Japanese men that could pass for a girl - she looks like an ugly, truck-driving man. i immediately thought Celes looked way better.

if that's the best picture of The Boss, I'd hate to see how bad she can look.


that was my next thought..............

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
Draco1214 | Posted 9/16/2006 2:11:49 PM | message detail
I personally don't think it'll be close at all, but it does have the potential of being a good match.
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Character Battle V Score - 4/4 points
Current Prediction - Tifa Lockhart vs. Ivy Valentine
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/16/2006 2:12:30 PM | message detail
Not really. How many close fodder/fodder matches are there, really? I expect a Vergil/Ghaleon out of this. It's the victor I'm iffy on.
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Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/16/2006 2:13:36 PM | message detail
Celes looks like crap in that picture. Maybe if the shopping wasn't so bad...
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Commit it to memory.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/16/2006 2:13:49 PM | message detail
The tricky thing about this match is that both characters have nearly identical ranges. It's just a matter of figuring out where they actually fall.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2006 2:14:32 PM | message detail
Celes looks like Courtney Love.

That is NEVER a good thing.

TuRtLe
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Turtle on his laptop | Contest analysis:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/16/2006 2:15:10 PM | message detail
Not really. How many close fodder/fodder matches are there, really? I expect a Vergil/Ghaleon out of this. It's the victor I'm iffy on.

Yesterday was close...for about 18 hours >_>
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Hi-ho, Hi-ho, Z1m Zum, Z1m Zum...our guru champ.