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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 362

UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/15/2006 8:29:24 PM | message detail
From Axem Turtle Posted 9/15/2006 11:26:46 PM #300
361 got deleted, probably because of Smurf strongly hinting that he stuffed for Claire. He was axed, along with the Viper Vixen accounts.

He wouldn't have gotten axed unless he was actually cheating. Ceej set that precedent awhile ago.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI
Axem Turtle | Posted 9/15/2006 8:46:00 PM | message detail
I'll never understand why people would risk their accounts to cheat votes that won't even make a difference in the long run.

lol the group that stuffed for GTA

TuRtLe
~~~
Turtle on his laptop | Contest analysis:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383
charmander6000 | Posted 9/15/2006 8:46:10 PM | message detail
Then what's with the Please be forewarned that posts offering multiple votes, talking about vote-stuffing methods, or bragging about voting multiple times are not tolerated on this board. warning if you only get axed if you actually do it.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 9/15/2006 8:51:40 PM | message detail
Yuo still get modded for breaking that, but you probably only get axed for actually doing it.
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I got pwnt by Z1mZum in the July 2006 Guru Contest.
Support Toadette for the Summer 2006 Contest!
Master Moltar | Posted 9/15/2006 9:00:35 PM | message detail
62.45% for Kairi, not as good as I thought...
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Tifa vs. Ivy - Bracket: Tifa - Vote: Ivy (3/4)
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/15/2006 9:01:36 PM | message detail
Tifa Lockhart 76.5% 306
Ivy Valentine 23.5% 94
TOTAL VOTES 400

Come on, 80%+! >>

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
Axem Turtle | Posted 9/15/2006 9:03:15 PM | message detail
Jesus.... this is gonna be brutal.

TuRtLe
~~~
Turtle on his laptop | Contest analysis:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383
therealmnm | Posted 9/15/2006 9:05:39 PM | message detail
20 MnMZero 4 Zero

Heh, I forgot that I picked Kairi with my quick bracket...
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Vote for Carmen Sandiego in SC2k6
Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/15/2006 9:06:16 PM | message detail
WTG CJayC
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2006 9:06:45 PM | message detail
Yeah, if Tifa and Ivy just want to stay where they are for the rest of the match, that's fine by me...
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Commit it to memory.
Aprosenf | Posted 9/15/2006 9:07:36 PM | message detail
I just want to repost this for hilarity:

_SmurfX_
Posted 9/14/2006 8:57:08 AM message detail
I'm fully confident that Claire will score over 60% on Kairi. I'd be shocked if Kairi was anything else other than fodder.

The lack of respect that Claire and Jill have got in this contest is baffling. I mean, the favourites are untested characters like Kairi and Peach. wtf?
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Caution ladies and gentlemen. We are now entering a Smurf topic. Proceed at your
own risk. - wavedash

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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
Master Moltar | Posted 9/15/2006 9:11:17 PM | message detail
Well, if this match goes like Tifa/Vyse, she'll end up around 78%.

Funny, I could've sworn Tifa got over 80% on Vyse...Darn memory!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Tifa vs. Ivy - Bracket: Tifa - Vote: Ivy (3/4)
ShadowOwns | Posted 9/15/2006 9:12:04 PM | message detail
Isn't smurf always wrong when it comes to close matches?
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Oil fan til the death.
Dilated Chemist | Posted 9/15/2006 9:13:00 PM | message detail
12 minutes in. My 70.07% is still in reach.

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Remember, remember. The 7th of October - the day Ganondorf was beat.
By the Valentine, who N fans despise - another win, another great feat.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/15/2006 9:13:01 PM | message detail
From ShadowOwns Posted 9/16/2006 12:12:04 AM #313
Isn't smurf always wrong when it comes to close matches?

Depends on how much influence he can get away with having on them. I'm glad his ass finally got caught, because there is NO WAY he wasn't doing the same during Magus/Knux and Sonic/MM.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 9/15/2006 9:15:02 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
3------23670----63.2657372
2------16002----63.1233596
1------2654------55.4634514
0------320------26.8750000

Overall prediction percentage: 62.45%

Pretty good for a 52-48 match, but it's a bit low considering the whole Kingdom Hearts craze. The perfects and -1s do almost exactly the same on this match.

14 people fell off the Top 50 today. PartOfYourWorld, SecksThaNemesis, KamikazePotato, theDarkwatch, Kharano, RiCeBo1, MukeyBear, Perfect_Bracket(who apparently isn't so perfect), _SmurfX_, HolyExcalibur, Sugand, MPHtails, Cory_Chaos and unfortunately akmusica, who had CATS winning it all have fallen off the Top 50 for having Claire over Kairi. 72% success is pretty good for the top 50 compared to the perfects only hitting 63 overall.
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I got pwnt by Z1mZum in the July 2006 Guru Contest.
Support Toadette for the Summer 2006 Contest!
Heroic TuRtLe | Posted 9/15/2006 9:18:32 PM | message detail
Axem_Turtle lives on! Carmen Sandiego FTW!

Kind of sad that my joke bracket is guarenteed to be the next one off the top 50 though ;__;

TuRtLe
~~~
Turtle on his laptop | Contest analysis:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383
Heroic TuRtLe | Posted 9/15/2006 9:19:57 PM | message detail
My oracle pick of 76,54% isn't looking too bad right now.

Certainly better than my first 4 <_<

TuRtLe
~~~
Turtle on his laptop | Contest analysis:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383
HaRRicH | Posted 9/15/2006 9:27:44 PM | message detail
Heh...

...Ivy Valentine VERSUS Nidoran F. Who ya got?
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Heroic TuRtLe | Posted 9/15/2006 9:32:53 PM | message detail
Ivy, but only because she's actually a woman in the female contest. In a regular bracket, I'd take Nidoran from sheer exposure.

TuRtLe
~~~
Turtle on his laptop | Contest analysis:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383
Heroic TuRtLe | Posted 9/15/2006 9:34:03 PM | message detail
Good, seems as though the percent is stabilizing. Now all I need is for Tifa to drop about 2 percent, and I'll have a great oracle pick

TuRtLe
~~~
Turtle on his laptop | Contest analysis:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383
HaRRicH | Posted 9/15/2006 9:34:24 PM | message detail
...that doesn't make any sense. Just head-to-head in a character battle like we're currently having and have had for years now, who would you take? You just confused me.....
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
ShadowOwns | Posted 9/15/2006 9:35:37 PM | message detail
Depends on how much influence he can get away with having on them. I'm glad his ass finally got caught, because there is NO WAY he wasn't doing the same during Magus/Knux and Sonic/MM.

~*ST*~


Well he must not be very good at it then because i know smurf gives sonic the worst name possible and if he had his way, sonic would have whooped MM. That never happened.
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Oil fan til the death.
Heroic TuRtLe | Posted 9/15/2006 9:39:41 PM | message detail
You don't think that this half of the bracket is "Best Female" has anything to do with that? I don't know about you, but when I think female, I don't think little pink rodent things.

TuRtLe
~~~
Turtle on his laptop | Contest analysis:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/15/2006 9:41:25 PM | message detail
Well he must not be very good at it then because i know smurf gives sonic the worst name possible and if he had his way, sonic would have whooped MM. That never happened.

Actually, without Smurf MM would've destroyed Sonic by several thousand more votes. A weaker Sonic makes Luigi's increase much more reasonable, and it shrinks that mysterious leap Sonic 2k5 had over Sonic 2k4.

Now that Smurf is gone, things are looking good for Ganon > Sonic!
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/15/2006 9:41:35 PM | message detail
Anyway, what my point is is that one would hope Ivy could take Nidoran F...yet, if Tifa/Ivy stay like they are right now, that this would make Tifa closer to Samus this year than she was to Sonic last year. Part can be explained by KH2, part can be explained by FF:AC...

...but, for me, I'll just take it as Nidoran actually being able to beat Ivy. Still though, I for one wouldn't have thought this pre-contest since I cannot see Tifa beating Samus.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
HaRRicH | Posted 9/15/2006 9:43:32 PM | message detail
All I see is "Character Battle V" and I vote according to either my preference in character or my bracket, depending on if I know them or not. I would think most people would vote one of those two ways as well.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
MegaReincarnate | Posted 9/15/2006 9:45:01 PM | message detail
I find it hilarious that Nidoran F could give half the females in this bracket a run for their money.

She should've went up against Jade. I doubt many people would've picked Nidoran F in that case.

Nidoran F/Ivy would probably be the Knuckles/Magus of the contest.
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Hispanics 5 | Whites 5
Asians 5 | Blacks 4
Who Cares? | Posted 9/15/2006 9:45:53 PM | message detail
Ivy without a second thought.
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Kasumi (Septemeber 26th)
*Just 24 days until Tales of the Abyss*
Heroic TuRtLe | Posted 9/15/2006 9:50:02 PM | message detail
If you're going from a statistical PoV, I'd take Ivy easily. Nidoran got ALOT of strength from the LUE/Board 8 fad, plus those few diehard Pokemon fans that would vote anything but Pikachu over anything else.

TuRtLe
~~~
Turtle on his laptop | Contest analysis:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383
dragoontheguy | Posted 9/15/2006 9:53:48 PM | message detail
She should've went up against Jade. I doubt many people would've picked Nidoran F in that case.

I probably would have. I mean, I'm a fan of BG&E but there's absolutely no denying that the game is extremely cult, especially on gamefaqs. I think last contest already proved that pokemon hate has largely died down, so it strangely enough isn't unconceivable for a random pokemon to be around the fodder line or just a bit below it.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
creativename | Posted 9/15/2006 9:59:31 PM | message detail
Was the moddable violation in the opening post for the 361 topics? And how many posts did we lose?

Good to see Tifa doing well here. I was a concerned about her disappointing, but she should easily finish with the tripling.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2006 10:01:06 PM | message detail
Meh, I predicted Nidoran F to get 11% on Samus factoring in SFF, and I'm not convinced Jade could stay above that. Jade/Nidoran F would be the next Kuja/Master Hand (which I picked right), only a far easier win for Nidoran F.
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Commit it to memory.
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 9/15/2006 10:03:33 PM | message detail
Was the moddable violation in the opening post for the 361 topics? And how many posts did we lose?

No and none. It filled to 500 and Kaxon archived it before it was modded.
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I got pwnt by Z1mZum in the July 2006 Guru Contest.
Support Toadette for the Summer 2006 Contest!
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2006 10:03:58 PM | message detail
Where would you guys peg Tifa now with AC and especially KH2 (which she had a decently prominent appearance in, and was her *first* KH, like Auron's)? I ask this to sort of gauge Ivy's strength...

Um...I want to say she gets 47-48% on Sonic now, but that's pulling her nearly even with Snake...
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Commit it to memory.
Who Cares? | Posted 9/15/2006 10:04:25 PM | message detail
This match is already ahead of Samus/Nidoran F by 600 votes, so it looks like we may have a new top vote grabber.
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Kasumi (Septemeber 26th)
*Just 25 days until Tales of the Abyss*
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2006 10:05:55 PM | message detail
Bah, make that 45-46%. I forgot she got only 43.6 against the Blue Blur. I was thinking she'd gotten closer to Aeris' performance. <_<
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Commit it to memory.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/15/2006 10:08:33 PM | message detail
Remember creativename's rule about how we should go with the logic of whoever's analysis was the closest?

Robotnik vs Sin from 2005 CLEARLY tells us how this here match will go!!

Sonic > Auron

Knuckles > Tidus

Shadow > Yuna

With all that in mind, Robotnik being > Sin should have been an obvious conclusion that we all should have seen coming from day one! And obviously the entire Sonic series would have whipped FFX's ass in a poll if such a thing were even possible. See where I'm going with this? No? Well screw you, then.

But because I'm nice, we'll look at an equally credible analysis of Resident Evil versus Kingdom Hearts!

Sora > Leon Kennedy

Riku > Jill Valentine

Ansem > Wesker

Kingdom Hearts > Resident Evil (you have to factor in "MGS tanks against anything with real strength" SFF in those stats)

Clearly, Kairi > Claire is the only logical conclusion that can come of this! \m/

Though if you want something a bit more serious, I went and surfed the net a bunch during some random day of boredom. The KH fanbase cares for Kairi about as much as the RE fanbase cares for Claire. That said, close matches like this are generally about whichever fanbase is more rabid. I give a SLIGHT edge to Kingdom Hearts there, solely because my inbox hasn't been the same since I got that KH2 bestiary posted on GameFAQs. RE4 is popular as hell in its own right, but I doubt any of its in-depths scored 100k hits in ~6 months.

And yeah yeah FAQ hits are meaningless with contest matches, but it's either make a joke analysis or post something like "I think Kairi wins on gut instinct".

Prediction: Kairi with 51.24%


I bolded the part that was actually serious, though I'm starting to wonder if looking at matches with that little tier system of mine is a decent idea.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI
FastFalcon05 | Posted 9/15/2006 10:23:41 PM | message detail
Just a cool thing about tomorrow's match, both characters are really awesome. Celes and The Boss are both very likeable, and I'm going to feel bad voting for either over the other.
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2006 10:25:17 PM | message detail
You got the tiering wrong though, Ulti. Nemesis > Ansem, big time
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Commit it to memory.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/15/2006 10:29:45 PM | message detail
Remember creativename's rule about how we should go with the logic of whoever's analysis was the closest?

That rule is completely stupid. MH vs. Kuja, anyone?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 9/15/2006 10:35:36 PM | message detail
Kingdom Hearts > Resident Evil

In the series contest Kingdom Hearts < Resident Evil.
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I got pwnt by Z1mZum in the July 2006 Guru Contest.
Support Toadette for the Summer 2006 Contest!
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2006 10:36:30 PM | message detail
He factored in "MGS tanks against anything with real strength" SFF. Clearly it would beat SSB.
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Commit it to memory.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/15/2006 10:37:35 PM | message detail
It was a joke post in all but one paragrph, jeez.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI
Big Bob | Posted 9/15/2006 10:46:38 PM | message detail
I rather enjoyed seeing you support Sonic, whether you were serious or not.

And as good as yesterday was, having my sig come to life would be the finest moment of this contest. Even more than Phoenix > Gordon.
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September 22nd! Amy Rose > KOS-MOS
Currently Playing: Disgaea: Hour of Darkness, God of War
Draco1214 | Posted 9/15/2006 10:48:51 PM | message detail
I'd mark out like no other if Phoenix actually manages to pull off the upset. That'd be the best day in contest history for me.
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Character Battle V Score - 4/4 points
Current Prediction - Tifa Lockhart vs. Ivy Valentine
Janus5000 | Posted 9/15/2006 10:52:15 PM | message detail
*comes back, votes, looks at poll, reads analyses*

and did respectably against the behemoth that is Metal Gear

...*kills Vlado*

Typical Friday night.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/15/2006 11:27:48 PM | message detail
I don't dislike Sonic, just some of the fans.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/16/2006 3:12:12 AM | message detail
....Jesus christ ALMIGHTY.

I left yesterday just as Kairi was about to take the lead. I come back today and...WTF? 4500 VOTES? o_O

And Smurf got axed, along with Vix3n? XD! Like we needed more proof.

Finally, yay badass match pic for The Boss! This will definitely be a deciding factor in a match that I see The Boss breaking 52% in.
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
Hi-ho, Hi-ho, Z1m Zum, Z1m Zum...our guru champ.
Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2006 5:51:05 AM | message detail
The more I think about it though, the more likely it seems Celes will win, Courtney Love pic be damned!

TuRtLe
~~~
Turtle on his laptop | Contest analysis:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383