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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 361
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/15/2006 9:40:28 AM | Message Detail
OMG TEH CLOSE MATCH1/2!?



*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.GameFAQsContests.com
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left):
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language):
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language):
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251

HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

TRE's poll listing (every poll!):
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

Aprosenf's Poll Script:
http://www.geocities.com/aprosenf/allpolls.txt

GameFAQs' Top 100 Games:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/top10/top10_100.html



!yawa tsoP
From: Osfan | Posted: 9/15/2006 9:40:51 AM | Message Detail
hoping for 1st?!
---
"I'll do it with my magic!" Tellah-Final Fantasy 4
From: Who Cares? | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:15:42 AM | Message Detail
I'll say it again, best match we've had since Sonic/Mega Man!
---
Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Kasumi (Septemeber 26th)
*Just 25 days until Tales of the Abyss*
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:15:52 AM | Message Detail
Claire > Kairi
---
Supporter of Daisy.
From: XIII_rocks | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:16:02 AM | Message Detail
Not sure who to support. There's advantages and disadvantages for both.

Claire:

+She's cool
-I have Kairi
-Smurf supports her

Kairi:

+I have her in my bracket
-It's only a point
-Illumina supports her
-She probably sucks, thoguh I never played her game

Meh, probably Claire on balance, but I don't know. Whoever wins, perhaps the real loser will be me.
---
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
Hi-ho, Hi-ho, Z1m Zum, Z1m Zum...our guru champ.
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:16:37 AM | Message Detail
Sonic/MM was better because it was worth more and had recognizable characters.
--- -
"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
RIP Eddie Guerrero. 1967-2005. Deputy Chief!
From: SineNomine | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:17:50 AM | Message Detail
I still prefer sonic/samus.
---
ModHater ~ 34KLer ~ The Last Heartless Bastard
No marks left behind - 37
From: Redtooth | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:18:22 AM | Message Detail
I prefer Mario/Servbot

---
Z1mZum>Redtooth
Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7
From: kfleong2000 | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:19:04 AM | Message Detail
Certainly a great match...altough Claire is now pulling away, the worrying day vote could pull Kairi right back into it.

/stealth tag
---
- Does money make the world go 'round??? ¥€$
From: Who Cares? | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:19:09 AM | Message Detail
Not saying which match is better! I'm saying this is the first time since then that a match has been this entertaining to watch...including the Series Contest.
---
Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Kasumi (Septemeber 26th)
*Just 25 days until Tales of the Abyss*
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:19:23 AM | Message Detail
I for one think it's great that we just had to wait 4 matches to see an actual comeback, especially after Claire already failed once.
---
Supporter of Daisy.
From: bogalx | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:19:47 AM | Message Detail
I just woke up, but how the hell did Claire pull ahead? Kairi had a pretty safe lead last night, and KH usually has a strong day vote, so I don't know WTF.
From: Redtooth | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:21:50 AM | Message Detail
Same thing I was thinking bogalx, but I have Claire so I'm quite happy. But the difference is only 100 votes, and there's 12 hours to go. So it's still anyone's game.

---
Z1mZum>Redtooth
Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7
From: longbladeofhiko | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:23:05 AM | Message Detail
Claire has got this. She is friggin takin off. GO CLAIRE GO!
---
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
From: _SmurfX_ | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:24:50 AM | Message Detail
Claire will have a 169 vote lead next update!
---
Caution ladies and gentlemen. We are now entering a Smurf topic. Proceed at your own risk. - wavedash
From: _username_ | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:28:05 AM | Message Detail
Not Dave has Claire winning, and about 400 accounts. . .
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You don't know me.
From: Haste_2 | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:28:51 AM | Message Detail
Repost of RPGuy's % updates by the hour for Claire Redfield:

12:00 | 53.05%
11:00 | 51.47%
10:00 | 51.80%
09:00 | 49.02%
08:00 | 47.91%
07:00 | 48.87%
06:00 | 53.03%
05:00 | 51.18%
04:00 | 52.15%
03:00 | 49.32%
02:00 | 49.43%
01:00 | 47.34%

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: marioinblack | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:29:41 AM | Message Detail
If Claire wins this will be the first time I get through the first 4 matches without a wrong prediction.

Yeah, I've made some bad predictions in previous years.

---
I am not changing this sig until the Devil Rays get into 3rd place in the division with at least 20 games played. (Started 9/16/04)
From: longbladeofhiko | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:31:01 AM | Message Detail
Hopefully if Claire wins, she better have this same kinda upset potential against Rikku, I need me some three points man!
---
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
From: _SmurfX_ | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:31:11 AM | Message Detail
Claire, you need more than that.
---
Caution ladies and gentlemen. We are now entering a Smurf topic. Proceed at your own risk. - wavedash
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:32:35 AM | Message Detail
Hm. Mega Man/Sonic actually followed similar trends thus far, with Mega Man as Claire and Kairi as Sonic.

Mega Man won the Dead Zone (midnight to 6:00 AM, yes I remembered that MM/Sonic started three hours later, and that might explain why Kairi actually did better during the first couple of hours - more people awake to bracket vote)

Sonic won in the Morning (6:00 AM to 9:00 AM - the time grade school kids generally wake up)

Mega Man won in the Day (9:00 AM to 3:00 PM)

Sonic won the After School (3:00 PM to 7:00 PM)

Now, it gets interesting. Sonic and Mega Man split the last five hours. Claire will probably have about a 1000 vote lead by 3:00 PM, which Kairi will bite into. I'm curious to see if she can a)come back (probably, but, Mega Man swung more votes over the day than Sonic in the after school), and b)hold on during the last few hours.
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It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti! ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: _SmurfX_ | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:35:37 AM | Message Detail
*groans*
---
Caution ladies and gentlemen. We are now entering a Smurf topic. Proceed at your own risk. - wavedash
From: YoAriel33 | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:36:00 AM | Message Detail
Damn.
---
The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:36:44 AM | Message Detail
Haha! Nice job by Kairi there.

---
...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
From: _SmurfX_ | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:37:25 AM | Message Detail
Hell Naw. Kairi gains, and Heroic Mario arrives.
A double sting. ¬_¬
---
Caution ladies and gentlemen. We are now entering a Smurf topic. Proceed at your own risk. - wavedash
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:37:49 AM | Message Detail
Cool. How much did she gain by?
--- -
"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
RIP Eddie Guerrero. 1967-2005. Deputy Chief!
From: Who Cares? | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:37:54 AM | Message Detail
Lowest update Claire had in quite a while
---
Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Kasumi (Septemeber 26th)
*Just 25 days until Tales of the Abyss*
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:38:43 AM | Message Detail
You guys need to stop looking at 5 minute updates and expand to 15. Aberrations like that are expected, and usually fixed over the 15 minute period. That was Claire's worst 5 min votal in quite some time, and Kairi's best. Chances are it'll even out over the next two 5 min updates, and Claire will have a net gain over the 15 minutes.

Or I'm wrong and Kairi's coming back already, but I'll take my chances.
---
It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti! ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:39:49 AM | Message Detail
12:30 on a Friday...

The after school vote could be starting.
--- -
"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
RIP Eddie Guerrero. 1967-2005. Deputy Chief!
From: params7 | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:40:08 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: marioinblack | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:40:35 AM | Message Detail
Well, this is what the contest is all about. Leaving us arguing about who's getting more votes in the day, at night, and so on. The end result can only be guessed at this point.

Go Claire!

---
I am not changing this sig until the Devil Rays get into 3rd place in the division with at least 20 games played. (Started 9/16/04)
From: params7 | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:40:39 AM | Message Detail
So how much time until the americans get out of school?

I actually see this a pretty close match now. And i'm talking that 7 vote difference match (whichever it was) type.


Just 3 hours ago we were almost on the verge of giving up for Claire when she was behind by more than 500 votes. Amazing comeback.

And people said the the day votes will favour Kaiki. I see Smurf's scored quire negative reputation here, but all this time he's been right all along.
---
On December 9,2001,Chris Jericho brought the argument to an end when he became the first superstar to unify the World Championship Titles of both WCW and WWF.
From: SineNomine | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:41:54 AM | Message Detail
I would hardly call it an amazing comeback, it is extremely consistent with the kids are in school right now vote. East coast kids should be getting out in another two hours or so, maybe three.
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ModHater ~ 34KLer ~ The Last Heartless Bastard
No marks left behind - 37
From: marioinblack | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:42:06 AM | Message Detail
US gets out of school between 2:00-5:00 depending on the state and what level of schooling your in.

---
I am not changing this sig until the Devil Rays get into 3rd place in the division with at least 20 games played. (Started 9/16/04)
From: Yesmar | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:42:20 AM | Message Detail
Are we so sure that Kairi will be able to win the after school vote? Has Kingdom Hearts done traditionally well during that time because I can't remember any specific examples.

I'm not saying that she won't do well there, but for the sake of my bracket I hope that she doesn't. I mean, everyone expected Kairi to win the day vote and look what just happened.
---
Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
From: _SmurfX_ | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:42:23 AM | Message Detail
This is a glitch at the moment. The day vote won't start proper for another 3 hours. At which point Kairi will start gaining.

Until then, the best she can do will be stalling Claire. And honestly, if that stalling is starting already. It's not a good sign for Claire.
---
Caution ladies and gentlemen. We are now entering a Smurf topic. Proceed at your own risk. - wavedash
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:43:10 AM | Message Detail
It's 12:45 right now. School ends at around 2:30.
--- -
"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
RIP Eddie Guerrero. 1967-2005. Deputy Chief!
From: _SmurfX_ | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:43:56 AM | Message Detail
I expect Kairi to edge the after school vote. I'd expect a 500 vote swing or so, which is relatively small.
But if Claire doesn't get moving, it'll be large enough to win the match for Kairi.
---
Caution ladies and gentlemen. We are now entering a Smurf topic. Proceed at your own risk. - wavedash
From: red sox 777 | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:44:10 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, the day vote doesn't start during the school year 'till around 3 Eastern. Go Claire!
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"........!" ~Magus
From: NClark128 | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:44:16 AM | Message Detail
I think that saying that Kairi will definitely get the day vote is based on the assumption that people will vote for her just because she's from Kingdom Hearts. I don't think that's going to be the case.
---
2006 Miami Dolphins: 0-1-0 - Last game: lost to Steelers 28-17 - Next: vs. Bills (9/17)
Sig bet. Big Bob. Freeman (me) vs. Wright (him).
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:44:20 AM | Message Detail
Has Kingdom Hearts done traditionally well during that time because I can't remember any specific examples.

Yes.
--- -
"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
RIP Eddie Guerrero. 1967-2005. Deputy Chief!
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:45:24 AM | Message Detail
Sora did (very) well during the day on Alucard, Kingdom Hearts on Castlevania and Metal Gear, and Riku on Frog. However, none of them are exactly day vote champions, so perhaps Kingdom Heart's day vote reputation is exaggerated. We'll find out if Claire can stand up to it soon enough.
---
It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti! ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Who Cares? | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:45:44 AM | Message Detail
Are we so sure that Kairi will be able to win the after school vote? Has Kingdom Hearts done traditionally well during that time because I can't remember any specific examples.

It was then when Kingdom Hearts finally made its comeback against Soul Calibur and built its lead over 1000.
---
Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Kasumi (Septemeber 26th)
*Just 25 days until Tales of the Abyss*
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:45:51 AM | Message Detail
Are we so sure that Kairi will be able to win the after school vote? Has Kingdom Hearts done traditionally well during that time because I can't remember any specific examples.

Kingdom Hearts has almost always won the after school vote. That's essentially the "day vote" when it's a weekday and kids are in school because it is extremely limited in the morning during the start times.

---
...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
From: _SmurfX_ | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:46:27 AM | Message Detail
It's done well with the day vote, but it's not a beast and hardly a sure thing that Kairi will win it, especially since Resi isn't particularly bad with the day vote.
---
Caution ladies and gentlemen. We are now entering a Smurf topic. Proceed at your own risk. - wavedash
From: YoAriel33 | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:46:57 AM | Message Detail
Just to put it out there, the KH crew has had the luxury of facing some pretty bad day vote competitors.
---
The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:47:07 AM | Message Detail
However, none of them are exactly day vote champions, so perhaps Kingdom Heart's day vote reputation is exaggerated.

Resident Evil is closer to the group Kingdom Hearts has won it against, too.

---
...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
From: Haste_2 | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:47:35 AM | Message Detail
Claire has gone 20 minutes with a net negative...please be a fluke.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: _SmurfX_ | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:47:47 AM | Message Detail
It was then when Kingdom Hearts finally made its comeback against Soul Calibur and built its lead over 1000.

Fighting games, along with kefka are the weeds of the day vote. Taking it aganist SC is nothing to be proud of.
---
Caution ladies and gentlemen. We are now entering a Smurf topic. Proceed at your own risk. - wavedash
From: Bergqvist | Posted: 9/15/2006 11:47:48 AM | Message Detail
Just checked my bracket, one of three so far. Are you impressed?
---
Makin' movies , makin' songs, and fightin' round the world.
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