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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 359

HaRRicH | Posted 9/14/2006 9:05:45 PM | message detail
Claire's gonna keep it close -- next update, she'll start cutting down on votes.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
charmander6000 | Posted 9/14/2006 9:05:47 PM | message detail
102

percent went down, but that's it.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/14/2006 9:05:48 PM | message detail
So much for my 56% prediction. >_>
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caps
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 9/14/2006 9:05:48 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
2------27091----87.3721900
1------14849----84.7262442
0------706------54.6742210

Overall prediction percentage: 85.91%

Okay job by the perfects, terrible performace by the 0s. We lost over 50% of them on this match. Perhaps a lot of them were messed up favorites brackets?

Two people fell off the top 50 today. fitlanbox who had Squall taking the main bracket and Gogodancer who had KOS-MOS?! Considering it's mostly contest vets who try to get brackets with unlikely winners on the Top 50, you would think they would last a bit longer.
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I got pwnt by Z1mZum in the July 2006 Guru Contest.
Support Toadette for the Summer 2006 Contest!
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/14/2006 9:06:53 PM | message detail
Kairi with a nice 100+ lead there. If she can keep increasing her lead, even slightly, she'll be doing good. If she keeps it this close throughout the night, this match is hers easy.

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/14/2006 9:07:14 PM | message detail
Come on Claire, I don't need you costin me two points, let alone three <_<
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/14/2006 9:07:59 PM | message detail
we'll never know her value this way!
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Rikku vs. Lenneth / Bracket: Rikku / Vote: Lenneth (2/2)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Claire / Vote: Claire
Haste_2 | Posted 9/14/2006 9:08:30 PM | message detail
TRE, the zero brackets mess up the prediction percentage for the zero scorers.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/14/2006 9:09:20 PM | message detail
All we need to know is that Kairi is crap and shouldn't be put within range to win another match again, ever. I'm tempted to put her X-Stat ranking *lower* than what she'll get against Rikku. OUT OF SPITE.
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Commit it to memory.
Lopen | Posted 9/14/2006 9:09:31 PM | message detail
I expected Kairi to "take the board vote", even though I figured Claire would still be winning right now. I still don't accept defeat yet.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
dragoontheguy | Posted 9/14/2006 9:09:54 PM | message detail
IIRC don't a lot of zero brackets end up "winning" very obvious matches even further in? I tend to get the impression that a large sum of them are just favourite brackets; even later on in the round until there's only a few dozen left.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 9/14/2006 9:10:10 PM | message detail
I wouldn't be surprised to see Claire cut the lead here at all.

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Explicit Content
Philadelphia's Path to Cheer Up Emo Kids (1-0) - Next week vs. New York Giants.
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/14/2006 9:10:24 PM | message detail
Kairi up some more!

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/14/2006 9:10:29 PM | message detail
Ouch.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
charmander6000 | Posted 9/14/2006 9:10:37 PM | message detail
Now it's over.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
dragoontheguy | Posted 9/14/2006 9:10:58 PM | message detail
And the gap widens further... if claire is going to win this I think she needs to do it during the night.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/14/2006 9:11:07 PM | message detail
Bleh, I'm goin to sleep. Hopefully Claire does something kickass while I'm gettin some rest.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
HaRRicH | Posted 9/14/2006 9:11:16 PM | message detail
Ooh...yikes. Let's see if this keeps up, but that was a real good time for Claire to start proving herself.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Haste_2 | Posted 9/14/2006 9:11:33 PM | message detail
Okay, it'll take a near-miracle for Claire to comeback now.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/14/2006 9:11:48 PM | message detail
Yeah. If Claire doesn't do anything tonight, she's got no chance come morning.

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
dragoontheguy | Posted 9/14/2006 9:11:51 PM | message detail
When I say the night I mean like alucards peak time. I have a feeling it's over, but it's always hard to tell this early.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
greatone10 | Posted 9/14/2006 9:11:52 PM | message detail
That update just doesn't look good at all.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest.
cyko | Posted 9/14/2006 9:11:53 PM | message detail
well, my 57% prediction looks a bit high, but another 50+ gain from Kairi will at least put her in control of the match........

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/14/2006 9:11:53 PM | message detail
Boy, I sure would hate to miss on an easy one liek today's. Good thing no one was foolish enough to bank on Claire's 2k2 value or foolish enough to assume Ansem with just 1 KH game (an done he was awful in) is a good indicator for Kairi after two.
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If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, maybe you deserved it.
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 9/14/2006 9:11:57 PM | message detail
Yes, a 150 vote lead is a lock, and it's over. It's not going to be a blowout in either direction, needless to say, but calling it over... lol.

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Explicit Content
Philadelphia's Path to Cheer Up Emo Kids (1-0) - Next week vs. New York Giants.
longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/14/2006 9:12:04 PM | message detail
Miracle? Come on guys the match just started...
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
transience | Posted 9/14/2006 9:13:10 PM | message detail
oh man, the board is gonna be a whinefest today.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
Axem Turtle | Posted 9/14/2006 9:13:12 PM | message detail
From Haste_2 Posted 9/15/2006 12:11:33 AM
Okay, it'll take a near-miracle for Claire to comeback now.

I wouldn't count her out until about 2 am EST. If she doesn't make a sizable cut by then, I'll take Kairi to win the match easily.

Fun fact, it looks like my joke Oracle pick will suck it up. I knew I shouldn't have went that high =(

TuRtLe
~~~
Turtle on his laptop | Contest analysis:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383
Haste_2 | Posted 9/14/2006 9:13:19 PM | message detail
The reason I'm saying a near-miracle is because Kairi will be getting the day vote, and Claire, the night vote. If their vote trends were the opposite Claire would have a far easier time.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Lopen | Posted 9/14/2006 9:13:49 PM | message detail
GTA had a higher % and a bigger lead at this point over Warcraft. Don't call this over, the board/bracket vote might just be stronger with the new start time.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
Draco1214 | Posted 9/14/2006 9:15:29 PM | message detail
If Claire fails to do something to save face soon, it's over. Kairi shows no signs of stopping her (albeit slow) lead building.
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Character Battle V Score - 3/3 points
Current Prediction - Kairi vs. Claire Redfield
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/14/2006 9:15:30 PM | message detail
That's looking to be about wrap things up.

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/14/2006 9:15:52 PM | message detail
Blizzard is a wholly different beast. Capcom characters/games can't do what Blizzard games do.
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If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, maybe you deserved it.
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 9/14/2006 9:16:17 PM | message detail
I still haven't lost hope for Claire, but I'm going to bed anyway, gotta get up nice and early....

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Explicit Content
Philadelphia's Path to Cheer Up Emo Kids (1-0) - Next week vs. New York Giants.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/14/2006 9:16:23 PM | message detail
It will take EVERY FIBER OF MY VERY BEING to not blast every Claire supporter to hell and back if Kairi manages to hang on here, given that certain nameless people in the stats topic once again decided to treat their predictions in a debatable match as absolute fact.

"Claire will win, Kairi is just fodder" my ****ing ass. I'll never get why you people don't learn your lesson.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI
cyko | Posted 9/14/2006 9:16:23 PM | message detail
OH SNAP!!!

Kairi's percentage just went UP!! yeah, this one's over.

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
HaRRicH | Posted 9/14/2006 9:16:41 PM | message detail
I'll give Claire about fifteen more minutes to show that she's goin' to fix the wound. After that, my hope becomes broken.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/14/2006 9:16:56 PM | message detail
That's looking to be about wrap things up.

Well, at least I got an HM-ism out of this. I consider it a wash. =P
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/14/2006 9:17:02 PM | message detail
I wouldn't suggest you lose hope, but it never hurts to admit your chances are awfully slim.
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If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, maybe you deserved it.
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/14/2006 9:17:15 PM | message detail
That "be" so snuck itself in there.

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
Draco1214 | Posted 9/14/2006 9:17:48 PM | message detail
This solidifies Kairi's position as the strongest non-villain NPC in contest history.
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Character Battle V Score - 3/3 points
Current Prediction - Kairi vs. Claire Redfield
Sir Bormun | Posted 9/14/2006 9:18:21 PM | message detail
Yeah, this looks over. That'll teach ya to pay attention to the 2002 x-stats.
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30272411 - Fanfiction based on the 2k6 contest.
Axem Turtle | Posted 9/14/2006 9:18:29 PM | message detail
I don't doubt that Kairi is fodder. I can't see her breaking 40% on Rikku.

I just thought that it was obvious that Claire would be bigger fodder.

At least this gives me a chance to say lol 2k2 xstats

TuRtLe
~~~
Turtle on his laptop | Contest analysis:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383
Big Bob | Posted 9/14/2006 9:18:32 PM | message detail
The first freeze I saw was with Kairi and Claire tied with 24 votes each.

Then I waited a minute, and grinned.

This match soooooo makes up for Ada/Jade.
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September 22nd! Amy Rose > KOS-MOS
Currently Playing: Disgaea: Hour of Darkness, God of War
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/14/2006 9:18:32 PM | message detail
...Well who was her competition for that spot?

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
Lopen | Posted 9/14/2006 9:18:50 PM | message detail
"Claire will win, Kairi is just fodder" my ****ing ass. I'll never get why you people don't learn your lesson.

Oh can it, Ulti, as if you're any better.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
dragoontheguy | Posted 9/14/2006 9:19:53 PM | message detail
...Well who was her competition for that spot?

King of all kosmos maybe? Yeah, it's not exactly a position of high prestige.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/14/2006 9:20:09 PM | message detail
I wouldn't go that far. We've yet to determine how close Claire actually is to her 2k2 value. Heck, for all we know she could be below Jill's 2k4 value.
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If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, maybe you deserved it.
Yesmar | Posted 9/14/2006 9:20:26 PM | message detail
Claire's not completely down and out yet, but things aren't looking very good.

Jill did have that crazy-ass run on Hyubasa in the middle of the night though.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
charmander6000 | Posted 9/14/2006 9:20:48 PM | message detail
Not much of a gain for Kairi there.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush