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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 358

FlamboyantSpy | Posted 9/13/2006 9:03:03 PM | message detail
And I may have overestimated Rikku/underestimated Lenneth lol =(

Not really, this is gonna be Lenneth's strongest time IMO. She has a hardcore cult following, and that's about it. I feel like I undershot with 80%

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Explicit Content
Philadelphia's Path to Cheer Up Emo Kids (1-0) - Next week vs. New York Giants.
Adept of Aiur | Posted 9/13/2006 9:03:28 PM | message detail
I think the votals yesterday were pretty damn high considering the sheer fodderness of the match.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/13/2006 9:03:50 PM | message detail
Go Rikku indeed. You need'a break 74% for my spread bet!

Also, someone ahead of me on the leaderboard picked Jade. XD
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ExThaNemesis? More like ExThOWNEDNemesis! ND>PSU What a blowout; the Lions must suck, but thats the way ExTha likes it.
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 9/13/2006 9:04:36 PM | message detail
I seriously can't believe how horrid that PP was... that's just, ugh.

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Explicit Content
Philadelphia's Path to Cheer Up Emo Kids (1-0) - Next week vs. New York Giants.
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/13/2006 9:04:55 PM | message detail
Not really, this is gonna be Lenneth's strongest time IMO.

Well, considering how Ada performed later on and throughout the day, this might be right around the area that Rikku stays at.

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
PiGuy96 | Posted 9/13/2006 9:05:12 PM | message detail
Lenneth lead 4-0. That's going to have to be good enough for me.
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Mustache...and green...
greatone10 | Posted 9/13/2006 9:05:36 PM | message detail
Well, for most contests we have been lucky enough to have the second match be a debatable affair. This time we have to wait until the fourth match for anything exciting.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest.
charmander6000 | Posted 9/13/2006 9:06:06 PM | message detail
I seriously can't believe how horrid that PP was... that's just, ugh.

In the PPC I predicted 62% wonder why I went higher near the end of the match.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Haste_2 | Posted 9/13/2006 9:06:16 PM | message detail
I agree with Mac about Lenneth's picture...I think she looks great with her art, but not so much in CG form...oh, wait, the match already started, hrhrhr...at the moment, Lenneth is looking around Luca Blight's strength, though I'd argue she's doing slightly better.

Very interesting info, DC!

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Master Moltar | Posted 9/13/2006 9:06:38 PM | message detail
This match feels like deja-vu...aren't these the same percentage Ada/Jade had yesterday at this time?
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Rikku vs. Lenneth - Bracket: Rikku - Vote: Rikku (2/2)
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 9/13/2006 9:07:23 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
1------41421----65.4040221
0------1225-----42.3673469

Overall prediction percentage: 64.74%

Ouch. Not a great job by either the perfects or the zeros. Considering it was a blowout and the higher seed won, you would think the casuals would do a bit better.

Five people fell off the Top 50 today. TheReturnOf0rz(who has Aeris winning the contest), Jon_Jon_Rocks(who had Kratos winning the contest), DarkEvilShadow, beefcake71090 and Deathstroke76 all had Jade winning the match. Considering how poorly people did overall, a 90% success rate by the Top 50 is amazing.
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I got pwnt by Z1mZum in the July 2006 Guru Contest.
Support Toadette for the Summer 2006 Contest!
Redtooth | Posted 9/13/2006 9:08:03 PM | message detail
You'll be happy to hear that Lenneth actually went 6-0!!

yes, that is a 50% boost, so you should be 50% more satified!

and the next 4 votes went to Rikku ;_;

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Z1mZum>Redtooth
Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7
Dilated Chemist | Posted 9/13/2006 9:08:38 PM | message detail
Thanks. Unfortunately you are the only one who finds it that.

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...Z1mZum owned my B1mBum in the Guru Contest...
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/13/2006 9:10:33 PM | message detail
Bleh, Rikku's dropping super fast.
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caps
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/13/2006 9:10:49 PM | message detail
Goddamnit Rikku. Stop ****ing dropping.
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ExThaNemesis? More like ExThOWNEDNemesis! ND>PSU What a blowout; the Lions must suck, but thats the way ExTha likes it.
Draco1214 | Posted 9/13/2006 9:11:07 PM | message detail
Drop to 71%!
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Character Battle V Score - 2/2 points
Current Prediction - Rikku vs. Lenneth Valkyrie
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/13/2006 9:11:14 PM | message detail
Better to drop now and rise during the morning/afternoon!

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
Keno316 | Posted 9/13/2006 9:11:29 PM | message detail
No! Drop! Make Lenneth break 30%!!!!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/13/2006 9:11:32 PM | message detail
Lenneth is really bringing Rikku down.
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Demyx > Axel
Z1mZum owned me in the Guru Contest with his mad skills!
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/13/2006 9:12:00 PM | message detail
I think Rikku will eat the day vote for breakfast.

Hopefully. ^_^
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/13/2006 9:12:05 PM | message detail
She can drop as long as she stays over 74%. I went against my good judgement and went max on her in spread betting. >.>
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ExThaNemesis? More like ExThOWNEDNemesis! ND>PSU What a blowout; the Lions must suck, but thats the way ExTha likes it.
Janus5000 | Posted 9/13/2006 9:12:13 PM | message detail
Man, Rikku's dropping like... her clothes.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 9/13/2006 9:12:19 PM | message detail
Okay... Rikku is seriously surprising me. Oh well, 'nother boring match, followed by what should be another one tomorrow! Good call on the female bracket !!

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Explicit Content
Philadelphia's Path to Cheer Up Emo Kids (1-0) - Next week vs. New York Giants.
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/13/2006 9:13:36 PM | message detail
Most of the female bracket is, unfortunately, going to be boring. It's no fun unless it's an 80%+ blowout with a good character. ;_;

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/13/2006 9:14:22 PM | message detail
If Rikku ends this match at around 75% and Claire beats Kairi without trouble (which I increasingly believe will happen), we could have a match to watch out for.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/13/2006 9:14:46 PM | message detail
When Claire blows out Kairi by 80%, you'll have your blowout by a good character, HM!
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ExThaNemesis? More like ExThOWNEDNemesis! ND>PSU What a blowout; the Lions must suck, but thats the way ExTha likes it.
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 9/13/2006 9:15:00 PM | message detail
I think it makes perfect sense to count the Final Fantasy series before VII toward Square.

I don't see why Chrono Trigger would be any different then. Not that any of this really matters to me.:P
NewLib | Posted 9/13/2006 9:15:12 PM | message detail
Isnt Claire/Kairi like the second most disputed match in the first round?
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--NL--
Z1mZum made me look like Toadette. And made me nominate her.
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/13/2006 9:15:28 PM | message detail
Claire isn't going to win nor does that match feature good characters. =(

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
Maniacal Llama | Posted 9/13/2006 9:19:27 PM | message detail
Isnt Claire/Kairi like the second most disputed match in the first round?

Ganon/Vincent
Kairi/Claire
Celes/The Boss

In no particular order...
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God is all knowing......but can he see why kids love Cinnamon Toast Crunch?
Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 9/13/2006 9:20:04 PM | message detail
Claire/Kairi is Mega Man/Mario Kart V2. The prediction percent for Ada doesn't bode well for the upset. If Ada, who was in RE4 only got 64% prediction, it kind of implies that people have no clue who she is. Claire hasn't seen a game since RE2 (or CVX). While the match will be close, I trust the KH fanbase to take it through another debated match.


TuRtLe
~~~
Character Battle V score: 1/1 | Check out my contest analysis:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/13/2006 9:21:10 PM | message detail
While the match will be close, I trust the KH fanbase to take it through another debated match.

I've said that from day one. I enjoy matches where there are no real stats to go by, so you just root hard for your pick to win.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/13/2006 9:21:22 PM | message detail
Except Claire was the main character of both of her games, and Ada was a side character in both of her games.
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ExThaNemesis? More like ExThOWNEDNemesis! ND>PSU What a blowout; the Lions must suck, but thats the way ExTha likes it.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/13/2006 9:21:51 PM | message detail
Claire/Kairi is Mega Man/Mario Kart V2.

I don't honestly see where people come up with this stuff.

The prediction percent for Ada doesn't bode well for the upset. If Ada, who was in RE4 only got 64% prediction, it kind of implies that people have no clue who she is

Yeah, people who aren't known triple characters.
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Ada Wong vs. Jade / Bracket: Ada / Vote: Ada (1/1)
Tomorrow: Bracket: Rikku / Vote: Lenneth
HaRRicH | Posted 9/13/2006 9:21:56 PM | message detail
Oh, and she's hotter too.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Janus5000 | Posted 9/13/2006 9:22:29 PM | message detail
While the match will be close, I trust the KH fanbase to take it through another debated match.

Like Riku/Fr- ...wait, that wasn't actually debated.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/13/2006 9:22:52 PM | message detail
And I honestly don't see the whole logic of "Blah blah isn't known because she got little bracket support."
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Ada Wong vs. Jade / Bracket: Ada / Vote: Ada (1/1)
Tomorrow: Bracket: Rikku / Vote: Lenneth
Janus5000 | Posted 9/13/2006 9:23:33 PM | message detail
Yeah, people who aren't known triple characters.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=949
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 9/13/2006 9:23:41 PM | message detail
My pick? I hated KH and I've only played about half-way through RE:3 before dropping it out of boredom.

Unless you meant pick in a bracket sense, in which case I went with my gut and common sense (like I did in BSE with MM/MK) and hopefully the result will stay the same.

Fun fact: not visiting the board and going with my gut helped me predict both Ness/CJ and Ocelot/Pac-Man last year. Unfortunately I had Gordon Freeman winning due to HL2 and not knowing Leon was in RE4.


TuRtLe
~~~
Character Battle V score: 1/1 | Check out my contest analysis:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/13/2006 9:23:43 PM | message detail
I almost have to agree on the whole Claire/Kairi being MM/MK v 2.0...it's an X-Stat upset, and the match wasn't debated at all until stat regulars started their jibber-jabber. That doesn't mean it'll fail, though. The arguments are completely different.
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Commit it to memory.
Maniacal Llama | Posted 9/13/2006 9:24:29 PM | message detail
I attribute a lot of that low percent to the casual bracket maker thinking this was MK Jade...
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God is all knowing......but can he see why kids love Cinnamon Toast Crunch?
Yesmar | Posted 9/13/2006 9:24:36 PM | message detail
This is probabaly a stretch, but in regards to prediction percentages:

Ada's might have been low, but Resident Evil usually has pretty good bracket support. Jill was the favorite to beat Ryu H. despite being a 14 seed.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
Draco1214 | Posted 9/13/2006 9:24:52 PM | message detail
In the three contests I've actually entered a bracket, I've never lost a single point on KH or its characters (Sora, Riku, Ansem). I picked Kairi to win this, so I'm hoping for some more KH good luck.
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Character Battle V Score - 2/2 points
Current Prediction - Rikku vs. Lenneth Valkyrie
Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 9/13/2006 9:25:17 PM | message detail
Yeah, people who aren't known triple characters.

I'm guessing that RE4 and the match pic helped out quite a bit there. Jade looked like a 10 year old boy.


TuRtLe
~~~
Character Battle V score: 1/1 | Check out my contest analysis:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/13/2006 9:27:18 PM | message detail
... Man, 2002 is a weird year for x-stats. >_>
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Ada Wong vs. Jade / Bracket: Ada / Vote: Ada (1/1)
Tomorrow: Bracket: Rikku / Vote: Lenneth
charmander6000 | Posted 9/13/2006 9:27:23 PM | message detail
Kairi will probably win because I took Claire. The last board upset I got right was Robotnik taking his 4-pack.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 9/13/2006 9:27:48 PM | message detail
I might've given Claire > Kairi a second thought if Claire's only value was from 2002. That coupled with the recent success of KH2 and the fact that Kairi had a 2 seed sealed the deal for me. Is the upset possible? Yes. Is it likely? I doubt it.


TuRtLe
~~~
Character Battle V score: 1/1 | Check out my contest analysis:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/13/2006 9:28:53 PM | message detail
Say what you want, but I just don't think Kairi's going to win simply because it has Kingdom Hearts written all over her. I used the same mindset for characters like Ridley, Terra, and Mario Kart. They all pretty much bombed and failed me.
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Ada Wong vs. Jade / Bracket: Ada / Vote: Ada (1/1)
Tomorrow: Bracket: Rikku / Vote: Lenneth
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/13/2006 9:29:07 PM | message detail
You gotta admit the Robotnik wins felt good. =P
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
greatone10 | Posted 9/13/2006 9:29:44 PM | message detail
Claire/Kairi is an x-stat upset? Really, the thought that Kairi is going to absolutely SUCK has nothing to do with x-stats.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest.