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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 358

Karma Hunter | Posted 9/14/2006 4:23:32 AM | message detail
Y'see cn, that kind of talk *almost* makes sense to me, but then I realize that makes KHF seem even more ridiculous than it already was. Not that I'm not fully ready to embrace it or anything, because that logic lends itself to the possibility of *pretends to do some calculations* post-SSBB Solid Snake getting 55% on post-TP Link AW YEAH
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/14/2006 5:33:26 AM | message detail
There goes the Ganon upset. >_<

The Ganon upset never existed in the first place, you know. I doubt he'll beat Vincent, personally.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/14/2006 5:35:37 AM | message detail
Sonic's newfound 'strength' scares me, seeing as how it's all based on that match against Mega Man, which all prematch conceptions said he shouldn't have gotten anywhere near. I wouldn't be surprised to see him beat Crono, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him in a close match with Ganon/Vincent, either. I just never thought the possibility of him losing was ever too large to entertain.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/14/2006 5:37:17 AM | message detail
Also, I'm not sure whether to be somewhat impressed with Lenneth or somewhat disappointed by Rikku by this performance.

Well, extrapolating it all out, I suppose it makes sense. Based on Rikku's 2005 value, Lenneth currently stands at 13.81% on BL, higher than only Manny and Yuri in the stats.

But rest easy, RPGuy! There's no way she ends up as the weakest female. Jade is currently the favorite for that. I don't see her being worth over 10% on BL, and if she is, it won't be by much.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/14/2006 5:39:16 AM | message detail
At the 8:35 mark, this match has 36033 votes. To compare with other matches at the same time:

Samus/Nidoran F - 36731
Ada/Jade - 32204

Breaking 100,000 shouldn't be much of a problem today.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/14/2006 5:39:43 AM | message detail
Silly Jade making us lose our streak!
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/14/2006 5:41:09 AM | message detail
You know, I'd have to agree with BT that this match reminds me of Mega Man/Mario Kart. Kairi was blowing Claire away in the BOP until this topic began to argue it.

Hey, it's not my fault the board's stupid.

Or, KHII obsessed, really.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
smitelf | Posted 9/14/2006 5:51:05 AM | message detail
Eh, the Ganon upset was always just that -- an upset. That hasn't changed; if it happens, it will be against the odds. Nevertheless, I put Ganon through in my bracket up to Crono because the only hope of winning this is calling the upsets, and I've always had sort of a soft spot for Ganon since the cartoon <<;

Yes, I am ancient.

Besides, statistically, HM is due to be right... ;)
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/14/2006 5:52:31 AM | message detail
...Man, that morning vote for Rikku wasn't subtle at all. She went from 73-74% updates to 76% updates with regularity (with one 78%+ update) in the last 20 minutes. She's already gained .12% since then.

*notices the 7:35 update*

...What in the world happened there?
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
charmander6000 | Posted 9/14/2006 5:52:47 AM | message detail
I know I was like one of the few people going for the upset then everyone started shifting sides.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/14/2006 5:53:11 AM | message detail
Besides, statistically, HM is due to be right... ;)

He had Vincent winning the Devil Division. That was his one right moment.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
lettuce Kefka | Posted 9/14/2006 5:53:22 AM | message detail
I don't see what the big fuss with Kairi is. Maybe it's because I haven't played KH2 yet (damn you Square!), but from KH, i see no reason why *anyone* would want to vote for her! ¬_¬
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
H__RR____H | Posted 9/14/2006 5:54:09 AM | message detail
You know what's different about Kairi/Claire though?

Everything.



The only similarity is that it wasn't ever in question until the stats people brought it up, and people tend to respect our opinions. We have good reason to bring it up though since we have something we didn't have before: actual experience with one of the options. We're also not in some unknown field this year -- the character battles are THE area of familiarity for most if not all of us, and we have seen several KH characters (and FF character make cameos in KH) before.

With MK/MM...we had Mega Man's success and MK's second most popular game's ranking in the Top 100 List to go by to decide on the better series. With Kairi/Claire, we have Claire and varying opinions of Sora, Riku, and Ansem to go by to decide on the better character. It's much different now.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/14/2006 5:54:29 AM | message detail
Kairi's not any better in KHII. She looks a little better, but the number of pedofanboys who think she's hot is somewhat disturbing...
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
lettuce Kefka | Posted 9/14/2006 5:55:15 AM | message detail
Also, I wouldn't be surprised of Claire gave Rikku a run for her money.

But that's just me. Guess we'll have to wait and see!
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
_SmurfX_ | Posted 9/14/2006 5:57:08 AM | message detail
I'm fully confident that Claire will score over 60% on Kairi. I'd be shocked if Kairi was anything else other than fodder.

The lack of respect that Claire and Jill have got in this contest is baffling. I mean, the favourites are untested characters like Kairi and Peach. wtf?
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smitelf | Posted 9/14/2006 5:58:27 AM | message detail
If anything, Kairi has less of a role in KH2 than in KH. However, even I must admit that she is far less annoying and more attractive.
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H__RR____H | Posted 9/14/2006 5:58:35 AM | message detail
Jill's getting beat, perhaps even her ass kicked.

Claire certainly has a shot of winning though.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
lettuce Kefka | Posted 9/14/2006 6:00:04 AM | message detail
If Jill losses to Peach, I can't see it being by much.
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/14/2006 6:01:08 AM | message detail
Claire beating Kairi and Jill beating Peach have always fallen hand in hand in my mind. If one happens, I can't see the other one failing to.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/14/2006 6:01:47 AM | message detail
For Peach to own Jill, she'd have to be a strong midcarder.

...Excuse me while I stifle my laughter so mnm doesn't start yelling at me again.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
smitelf | Posted 9/14/2006 6:03:49 AM | message detail
Peach being a favorite against Jill I can understand -- she's a gaming staple.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/14/2006 6:04:47 AM | message detail
So is DK, and I'll never fathom why he was favored against Vivi.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/14/2006 6:05:23 AM | message detail
Because Ulti picked him.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
smitelf | Posted 9/14/2006 6:05:56 AM | message detail
Claire beating Kairi and Jill beating Peach have always fallen hand in hand in my mind. If one happens, I can't see the other one failing to.

Why!? Kairi and Peach have totally different support bases. If there was a Kairi vs. Peach battle, I would pick Peach without hesitation.
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/14/2006 6:06:45 AM | message detail
Even though I have Peach winning I think we are all setting ourselves up, Peach/Chun Li was heavily debated with most of this topic going for Chun-Li.
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_SmurfX_ | Posted 9/14/2006 6:07:17 AM | message detail
Har, how can someone who spends so much time analysing contest stats be so ignorant to the facts?

1) Peach never had enough nominations to get into any contest of any kind.

2) She's behind characters like Wario in the mario chain. Wario got doubled by Shadow.

3) Jill was a proven performer in the days when nobody on GF gave a damn about Resi. She defeat Kirby, outperformed Luigi on Squall and despite not being given a chance on the board was robbed out of victory aganist Ryu H.

4) Add in a likely Resi 4 boost, and this isn't a match.


So if we assume that Jill gained nothing whatsoever with Resi 4, Peach is somehow as popular as Wario, and that Shadow didn't outperform an ounce on Mario.

Jill still wins comfortably.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/14/2006 6:07:47 AM | message detail
And if there were a Jill v. Claire battle, I'd pick Jill without any hesitation. The difference between Kairi/Peach and Claire/Jill should be around the same in my mind.

I guess it'd still be a tossup if Claire barely squeaked by or something. 55+%, though? Peach'd have to *really* surprise me then.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/14/2006 6:08:18 AM | message detail
Speak for yourself, dude. I have Jill beating out Peach.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/14/2006 6:08:48 AM | message detail
2) She's behind characters like Wario in the mario chain. Wario got doubled by Shadow.

Not to rain on your parade Smurf, but if Shadow is actually where you think he is this is fairly impressive. <_<
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Who Cares? | Posted 9/14/2006 6:09:00 AM | message detail
I've always seen Peach as someone that would suffer from M.Bison syndrome. Very few (if any) with the fanbase would call them their favorite character, but they are very well-liked. That'll let you tear apart fodder, but up against a fairly popular character, you see the difference between being liked & loved.

I seriously wish we could swap Daisy & Marle. She needed a tougher 1st round match than an SFF beatdown
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/14/2006 6:11:48 AM | message detail
Peach may very well suffer from M. Bison syndrome. However, just as M. Bison still isn't stronger than someone like Chun-Li, I can't see Peach stronger than someone like DK. Chun-Li's getting *really* close to that upper limit for Peach, and I'd struggle in a Jill/Chun-Li match. Fortunately for Peach she may win it on her opponent's weakness, which is why I'm curious to see how Claire will do tomorrow.
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_SmurfX_ | Posted 9/14/2006 6:14:49 AM | message detail
It's sad that Jill has gone from being favourite aganist Squall to actually being underdog aganist Peach.

>_<

The crazy thing is that unlike Tidus, she's done very little to warrant the lack of faith.
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smitelf | Posted 9/14/2006 6:15:16 AM | message detail
And if there were a Jill v. Claire battle, I'd pick Jill without any hesitation. The difference between Kairi/Peach and Claire/Jill should be around the same in my mind.

I don't necessarily disagree; I'm saying that there's no real proof to suggest that Claire > Kairi implies Jill > Peach because Kairi and Peach are totally unrelated characters.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/14/2006 6:17:22 AM | message detail
Well, that's just me. I don't expect most people to look at a Claire win and go "OMG LOL PEACH IS SO SCREWED" Well, not unless they were looking for a reason to say that in the first place. =/
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/14/2006 6:18:20 AM | message detail
pff Peach won't even make it to Jill.
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smitelf | Posted 9/14/2006 6:18:23 AM | message detail
The crazy thing is that unlike Tidus, she's done very little to warrant the lack of faith.

Oh, don't get me wrong -- IMO, Jill is the rightful favorite -- but I don't see much of a link between Jill's match with Peach and Claire's match with Kairi. Even if Claire beats Kairi into the ground, that doesn't establish Jill as the absolute victor over Peach because, for all we know, Kairi could be worse than Kerrigan.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/14/2006 6:33:40 AM | message detail
Well, not unless they were looking for a reason to say that in the first place. =/

Oh, believe me, I am!!
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
charmander6000 | Posted 9/14/2006 6:52:55 AM | message detail
As of now we are on pace for about 112k
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/14/2006 7:18:55 AM | message detail
Go Rikku, triple Lenneth!
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Supporter of Daisy.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/14/2006 7:34:59 AM | message detail
Rikku might reach the tripling. She's got plenty of time.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
charmander6000 | Posted 9/14/2006 7:37:42 AM | message detail
As long as she stays above 74% then it's fine with me.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Kaxon | Posted 9/14/2006 7:46:50 AM | message detail
The crazy thing is that unlike Tidus, she's done very little to warrant the lack of faith.

I'm not sure I'd call losing to Ryu Hayabusa very little.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/14/2006 8:25:34 AM | message detail
Or the fact that she didn't even make 2k5.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/14/2006 8:26:36 AM | message detail
...you're going to hold not making 2k5 against her? Will we be taking Peach over Aeris, now???
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/14/2006 8:29:27 AM | message detail
I think it's because of the fact that the RE fanbase shifted to RE4 (Thus Leon getting in), and so Jill was left by the wayside. I don't think we'd see her again until Resident Evil Wii came out.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/14/2006 8:30:44 AM | message detail
(As in, she was lucky half the field was female only)
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/14/2006 8:31:31 AM | message detail
As are 95% of the females here.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Buzzup | Posted 9/14/2006 8:31:52 AM | message detail
Claire>Kairi!

Believe it!
FFDragon | Posted 9/14/2006 8:31:56 AM | message detail
Claire >> Kairi
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