GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 357
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/12/2006 4:33:31 PM | message detail |
| Did we happen to miss Sonic's leap in strength in
2005? She's not THAT far ahead anymore, you know, although to admit
that would be detrimental to your Ganondorf > Sonic upset. --- "...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 9/12/2006 4:35:11 PM | message detail |
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Did we happen to miss Sonic's leap in strength in 2005? She would still get 55%+ on him, which does not scream to me "similar strength." --- ...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible. |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 9/12/2006 4:36:04 PM | message detail |
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Or 54% if you go by CN's stats, but that's where all that glorious controversy comes in. --- ...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible. |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/12/2006 4:36:29 PM | message detail |
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55%+ now? Are you kidding me? 55 is her ceiling now. --- "...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow |
| Draco1214 | Posted 9/12/2006 4:36:47 PM | message detail |
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Samus (2005c) VS Sonic (2005c) Samus has a strength of 41.69. Sonic has a strength of 38.50. Samus wins with 53.83% of the vote! A win of 6,933 with 90,603 total votes cast. --- Character Battle V Score - 0/0 points Current Prediction - Samus Aran vs. Nidoran F |
| Lopen | Posted 9/12/2006 4:38:00 PM | message detail |
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Sonic got 50% on Samus in 2002. After two years, Samus got 57% on him.
Who says the tides can't change back just as easily? I think they have.
--- Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef |
| Tequilla Gundam | Posted 9/12/2006 4:38:26 PM | message detail |
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That's assuming she isn't overrated in the stats. Did we happen to miss what Samus did to Sonic in 2004? Hey look! Using 2 year old matches! We all know characters like Sonic and Samus stay perfectly constant. --- Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin |
| Tequilla Gundam | Posted 9/12/2006 4:39:43 PM | message detail |
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Sonic got 50% on Samus in 2002. After two years, Samus got 57% on
him. Who says the tides can't change back just as easily? I think they
have. Ding Ding. We have a winner. --- Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 9/12/2006 4:39:52 PM | message detail |
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It wouldn't be that much more than 55%, but she would certainly be putting up those types of numbers against him. She had no reason to be overrated in 2004 and even had reason to boost in 2005, but against all of that she apparently drops. --- ...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible. |
| Cavalier Lowen | Posted 9/12/2006 4:40:27 PM | message detail |
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But Sonic has no reason to rise that much, all of his games kind of suck lately. *Runs from angry horde of Sonic Fanboys. --- Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum! |
| cyko | Posted 9/12/2006 4:40:30 PM | message detail |
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so, besides all this Sonic vs. Samus nonsense....... does anyone know who was responsible for Jade getting into this contest with a 5 seed? she's the lead character from a 3-year old game that didn't really sell very well. she is, in fact, the only character and only game in the contest that i had never even heard of before this contest. even with just females, how does a character that obscure make it in? who was behind her rally? --- i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest. Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!! |
| Draco1214 | Posted 9/12/2006 4:41:15 PM | message detail |
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I wonder if she will get more than 30k votes (which is more than what her game sold, IIRC). --- Character Battle V Score - 0/0 points Current Prediction - Samus Aran vs. Nidoran F |
| Tequilla Gundam | Posted 9/12/2006 4:42:08 PM | message detail |
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HM, you don't seem to understand that SFF-adjusted stats, by nature, are bound to overrate/underrate the SFF'd recipient. A +20% adjust for Samus was used because it seems sensible Enough said. --- Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 9/12/2006 4:42:26 PM | message detail |
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Sonic got 50% on Samus in 2002. After two years, Samus got 57% on
him. Who says the tides can't change back just as easily? I think they
have. You think Sonic would got 50/50 with Samus? There's no possible reason to even consider Sonic having a shot at winning that match. She has had one bad match since beating Sonic down, and apparently it's enough to cast this much doubt on her. That one match was Mario of all people. That's assuming she isn't overrated in the stats. ...Why would she be? There's no reason for her to be overrated. That adjustment in those stats makes her drop against everything she had in her favor. And it does so because making her indirectly stronger than Mario does not sit with people. --- ...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible. |
| Lopen | Posted 9/12/2006 4:42:56 PM | message detail |
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Established characters rise and drop just for fun. Crono and Mario had
no new releases of significance between 2003 and 2005, and yet they
still had 7% variance in their matches. Why did Mega Man seemingly drop
massively between 2002 and 2003? KHF? Did Wily spread rumors that Mega
Man preferred Metal Blades to Keyblades? --- Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 9/12/2006 4:44:09 PM | message detail |
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Mario had no new releases of significance between 2003 and 2005, and yet they still had 7% variance in their matches. Mario had both the DS and Super Mario 64 DS in his corner. Considering how well that game sold, I'd consider both something of "significance." --- ...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible. |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 9/12/2006 4:46:50 PM | message detail |
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HM, you don't seem to understand that SFF-adjusted stats, by nature, are bound to overrate/underrate the SFF'd recipient. If I were not well aware of this fact, I wouldn't be saying that Samus should be stronger than what those stats indicate. There was far more reason for her to be underrated than there was to be overrated. --- ...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible. |
| Lopen | Posted 9/12/2006 4:48:13 PM | message detail |
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Well you can go ahead and believe a DS game gives Mario a ~6% X-Stat boost all you want. Excuse me if I don't. Now how about explaining Mega Man 2k2-2k3? Snake 2k3 to 2k4? Sonic 2k2 to 2k3? --- Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/12/2006 4:49:35 PM | message detail |
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Snake from 2003 to 2004 to 2005, heh. Honestly, I think we underrate a character's ability to shift in the stats. A character does not need a release to rise. --- "...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 9/12/2006 4:51:45 PM | message detail |
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Well you can go ahead and believe a DS game gives Mario a ~6% X-Stat boost all you want. Excuse me if I don't. The primary reason for a boost of that magnitude, and for all the Nintendo characters as a whole, was because of a voter shift toward Nintendo. It was not a singular factor, but Mario has had something of note since then. Now how about explaining Mega Man 2k2-2k3? Snake 2k3 to 2k4? Sonic 2k2 to 2k3? There is some of that WDF or whatever from 2002 to 2003 that is supposed to explain what happened between that whole division, but I forget most of the details of it. But I'm not arguing against increases and decreases for no apparent reason; that is to be expected from year to year. None of these characters had reason to increase from one year to the next, though, and then went and dropped. --- ...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible. |
| Lopen | Posted 9/12/2006 4:52:14 PM | message detail |
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A character does not need a release to rise. I've been preaching this about a year now! About time someone goes along with it! --- Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/12/2006 4:52:52 PM | message detail |
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HM, 41% on Cloud is hard to argue. So is 35% on Link. Samus may very well have boosted in 2k5. In fact, I expect that she boosted nicely. The thing is, I don't think it's from that 2k4 level. Doing that -- and doing it on a level that Mario boosted with -- makes her beat Sephiroth. Now, while I don't think it's that much, it's still enough for her to be well, WELL above Mario, so rSFF is undeniable if that is all true. But if Samus was never that high in the first place -- well, that makes that kind of a boost make more sense. Heck, she can still be higher than Crono given that scenario, although the match is much more debatable (which it probably should be). Samus' 2004 run is just WEIRD. Lara and Fisher are virtual non-factors, they're both fodder and we haven't had a steady reading on either, perhaps ever. Then there's Sora -- we all pegged the Snake match as an anomaly, but what if it wasn't? The only other person we can gauge through is Alucard, and no way I think he's as high as 2k4 implies, at any rate. After that there's Sonic -- who boosted in 2k5 and was pitiful in 2k3. Who's to say where he was in 2k4? But Ryu and KOS-MOS speak of overrating... Samus is a lock to win this contest. But she was in 2k5, too. --- Commit it to memory. |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/12/2006 4:53:10 PM | message detail |
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I've been of that mindset for a while myself. I just haven't really said anything. --- "...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/12/2006 4:55:31 PM | message detail |
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Samus will not win this contest because I picked her to win in my bracket. The curse will live on. ...I did it on purpose, mind you. --- "...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/12/2006 4:55:50 PM | message detail |
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None of these characters had reason to increase from one year to the next, though, and then went and dropped. Snake had TTS in 2004. And knock that game's sales all you like, but... http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2179 28% of GameFAQs has beaten TTS (that's not counting those who only played it). Out of those, for 8% it is their only MGS experience. Considering the total playership of MGS, that's big. --- Commit it to memory. |
| Draco1214 | Posted 9/12/2006 4:56:44 PM | message detail |
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Luckily, my Street Fighter curse ends this year. Ryu has a predictable path. --- Character Battle V Score - 0/0 points Current Prediction - Samus Aran vs. Nidoran F |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/12/2006 4:57:59 PM | message detail |
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...My Sonic curse has a good chance to live on, but then again, maybe I'll be exactly right this time! --- "...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow |
| longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/12/2006 5:00:56 PM | message detail |
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Lets hope my Crono curse doesn't make me job <_< --- WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you? |
| Tequilla Gundam | Posted 9/12/2006 5:01:02 PM | message detail |
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Interesting BOP Results Samus vs Mario 2k5: 32% choose the underdog (Mario) while Samus was considered the lock to win the tournament. Result: Mario wins. Samus vs Crono 2k6: 30% choose the underdog (Crono) while Samus is considered the lock to win the tournament. Result: ?? THE MORE YOU KNOW --- Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 9/12/2006 5:01:58 PM | message detail |
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HM, 41% on Cloud is hard to argue. So is 35% on Link. The difference between the two is that Samus never had any signs of being overrated. The suspicion of Magus being overrated arose from how he performed after that year. Samus came out in 2005 and kicked some ass until she met up with Mario. I have a hard time believing a match riddled with SFF is supposed to be the key that "exposes" Samus. Samus may very well have boosted in 2k5. In fact, I expect that she boosted nicely. The thing is, I don't think it's from that 2k4 level. Doing that -- and doing it on a level that Mario boosted with -- makes her beat Sephiroth. Now, while I don't think it's that much, it's still enough for her to be well, WELL above Mario, so rSFF is undeniable if that is all true. I still have a hard time with the idea that Samus was overrated in 2004. It just doesn't seem like anything was out of place with Samus's run in that contest. It didn't even look like anything was out of place in 2005 until she ran into Mario. Depending on how much she would boost in 2005 leaves her enough room to boost from that 2004 value and still be under Sephiroth by a small margin. She doesn't need to boost proportionally to anyone else -- and it would need to be around 6 - 7% from her 2004 rating in order for that Sephiroth beating to go down. Samus is a lock to win this contest. But she was in 2k5, too. And she'll take this contest without a problem. There's no Mario or Link to stop her from doing it this time. --- ...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible. |
| VectorAgent | Posted 9/12/2006 5:02:47 PM | message detail |
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while Samus is considered the lock to win the tournament. The casual board opinion, to me, seems to favor Crono much more than Samus. --- CHARACTER BATTLE V: Samus Aran > Crono. |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/12/2006 5:03:49 PM | message detail |
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Samus vs Crono 2k6: 30% choose the underdog (Crono) while Samus is considered the lock to win the tournament. Where'd you get 30% from? --- “Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them.” - Vivi0198 |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 9/12/2006 5:06:06 PM | message detail |
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28% of GameFAQs has beaten TTS (that's not counting those who only
played it). Out of those, for 8% it is their only MGS experience.
Considering the total playership of MGS, that's big. The sales of that game now are around 300,000, which is certainly nothing to applaud. I forget what the sales were back then, but I seem to recall a 150,000 number back then. Ignoring that its sales have doubled since then, there's the fact that 7.9% of those voters say they have beaten MGS thanks to the remake. I would consider far more indicative than I would combining it with the people who say they have beaten both. The people who played the original and then got the remake wouldn't exactly have much reason to vote for Snake when they didn't beforehand, or at least I wouldn't suspect that much. The Twin Snakes bombed pretty bad overall, and you have plenty of "split" there with people who like and people who don't like it. In comparison, Snake's reason to boost is nothing to that of Samus. --- ...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible. |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 9/12/2006 5:07:26 PM | message detail |
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World of difference between Mario and Crono, too, when it comes to a match against Samus. --- ...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible. |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/12/2006 5:08:21 PM | message detail |
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We'll see about that, won't we? I don't think the difference between Samus and Crono is THAT great. Of course, because you're a Ganon supporter, you do because you have to. --- "...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 9/12/2006 5:13:41 PM | message detail |
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It actually has nothing to do with Ganon. He never comes into my mind when I'm arguing this point. --- ...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible. |
| WilhuffTarkin | Posted 9/12/2006 5:14:45 PM | message detail |
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Heroic Mario, which match did you make an account bet on again? Was it Ganondorf/Sonic? --- Evacuate? In our moment of triumph? I think you overestimate their chances. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/12/2006 5:15:49 PM | message detail |
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Even 7.9% of people newly playing and beating MGS counts. Even if you
want to halve that number, it still counts. People playing TTS for the
first time when they already played MGS matters, just as how MGS4 will
matter even to the people who played previous MGS games (though to a
far greater extent, of course). The fact is, Snake had reason to rise that year. More reason than he had in 2k3 at least, when he *did* boost. But he didn't, and fell miserably. Even if you want to make it into an argument of scale, that leaves open the possibility for Samus to not benefit -- or at least not benefit as much as one might think -- from something like MP2. 2k5 doesn't have any great argument for Samus dropping, and I don't expect it to. However, I don't expect ANYTHING to be taken from 2k5. A useless match against Yuri. A useless match against overrated Frog (unless you want to use Liquid, then WHOOPS Samus underperformance <_<). A useless match against Ganondorf. And a useless SFF beatdown at Mario's hands. We're using a two-year old X-Stat value here that may be questionable, along with our own expectations. And you expect me to believe that this is somehow a lock? --- Commit it to memory. |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 9/12/2006 5:15:59 PM | message detail |
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And the "world of difference" was meant to say that Crono is not going
to be there to SFF Samus and "steal" a win. There is no doubt in my
mind that Samus is clearly above Crono to such a degree that the match
will never be in question. That one match with Mario has somehow casted
this doubt on what Samus is and isn't capable of doing, but it's nice
to see her path being one that would allow for her to step it up in the
final. Unless her opponent does indeed end up being Ganon, she's got a shot at showing how far ahead she is from the rest regardless of who faces her. --- ...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible. |
| charmander6000 | Posted 9/12/2006 5:26:04 PM | message detail |
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Match II: (4) Ada Wong vs. (5) Jade Contest History Ada Wong No Previous Contest Matches Jade No Previous Contest Matches Analysis: This is the first match of many that involves two females that have never been in a contest. Ada is a character from Resident Evil 2 and 4 and Jade is the main character from Beyond Good and Evil. When the bracket was first released I had problems predicting this match, though at the time I thought it was the Jade from Mortal Kombat and when I found out which Jade is was then the match became really easy to predict. Ada was in Resident Evil 4; the game that brought back the series from the dead. Jade’s game on the other hand isn’t as popular here at GameFAQs, which spells out doom for her. Nothing much to talk about the match, even the board doesn’t care about the match. Since strength for RE characters is very different I can see this being anywhere from 55%-70% win for Ada. Even though Ada doesn’t have much going for her, it’s that Jade has even less going for her. charmander6000’s Bracket: Ada Wong over Jade charmander6000’s Prediction: Ada Wong wins, 62.52% - 37.48% --- "I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/12/2006 5:27:33 PM | message detail |
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I wonder if she will get more than 30k votes (which is more than what her game sold, IIRC). BG&E sold far better than that. It sold ~45K in its first month alone on consoles, not to mention PC. That crazy price drop it had was also pretty beneficial, sales-wise. A useless match against overrated Frog (unless you want to use Liquid, then WHOOPS Samus underperformance <_<). I'd rather use Master Chief. lol no Halo 2 boost. >_> --- Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent. |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/12/2006 5:29:12 PM | message detail |
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Oh, and I could see Jade stunning us all with an upset here, Fire
Emblem over GTA style. I don't really expect her too, but it's
certainly a possibility. --- Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent. |
| Draco1214 | Posted 9/12/2006 5:30:28 PM | message detail |
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I don't know why, but I'm getting this feeling that Ada is going to
bomb in the next match. She won't lose, but I'm expecting a
Wesker/Blight style bombing. --- Character Battle V Score - 1/1 point(s) Current Prediction - Ada Wong vs. Jade |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/12/2006 5:37:30 PM | message detail |
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Psh, RE4 PS2 is enough to prevent that. She'll likely impress against
Jade, and then impress even more against Samus, just as Leon will
impress against Bowser. --- Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent. |
| Who Cares? | Posted 9/12/2006 5:45:06 PM | message detail |
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Wow, the votals really took off since I last posted, looks like they'll be no dropoff here folks! And I have a feeling tomorrow we're going to see alot of "I thought it was Jade from Mortal Kombat" topics popping up. --- Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Kasumi (Septemeber 26th) *Just 28 days until Tales of the Abyss* |
| Haste_2 | Posted 9/12/2006 5:52:11 PM | message detail |
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Who on earth had the idea of Crono SFFing Samus, anyway? Since when has
Crono been a Nintendo character? There's been no evidence of Crono
having any SFF against Nintendo... We might as well say Kefka or Cecil
or Magus are Nintendo characters, too. Another thing...measuring Samus through Diablo and Ganondorf as opposed to Sonic through Diablo predicts Samus over Ganondorf with 55.35%. Diablo has shown himself to be consistant between contests judging by his match against Kefka, along with the x-stats of Kefka and Diablo in SC2K5. Plus, there's so many more ways you could measure Samus that suggest she didn't lose ground between 2K4 and 2K5. If Samus SFFed Ganondorf and isn't quite as strong, I think Samus could handle any (non-existant) SFF Crono would throw out at her. Obviously if Samus got more than 5% worth of SFF on Ganondorf she has a lot to worry about against Crono and the like. :p Samus had a huge reason to go from 50% on Sonic to 57.5% on him, and that's Metroid Prime, plus other Metroid titles, after many years with hardly anything except SSB games featuring Samus. Sonic has had constant titles for years, and it takes a lot for a release to boost somebody as established as Sonic. Sonic boosted lately not because of his new releases...but because of a change in voters, in my opinion. Yes, Sonic could oust Samus this year, as anything's possible, but you gotta admit odds are still in Samus' favor. As others were saying, releases don't guarantee changes, nor do lack of releases guarantee no changes, but at the very least we can guess how much a new game will aid a character, based on how much of a hit the game is, how well the character has already been established, etc. and often (but far from always) be accurate. There's a reason Dante has been getting more popular, yet not Mega Man...Dante was brand new back in 2K2 and you can't expect him to be at full popularity in such a short time. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 9/12/2006 6:00:15 PM | message detail |
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Just out of curiosity, could someone point out anything that shows Samus being undeniably stronger than Mario indirectly? TuRtLe ~~~ Turtle on his laptop |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 9/12/2006 6:03:28 PM | message detail |
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Oh, and I could see Jade stunning us all with an upset here, Fire
Emblem over GTA style. I don't really expect her too, but it's
certainly a possibility. There's no way that will happen. Jade is far too unknown for that to even be a possibility worth talking about. --- ...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible. |
| therealmnm | Posted 9/12/2006 6:04:52 PM | message detail |
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Well, Mario had been far from impressive in these contests before 2k5,
which was another one of my factors in taking Samus to beat him. After
a highly controversial 2k2, Shadow gets 45% on him, and Sephiroth makes
him look worse than Mega Man in 2k3. Then Mario absolutely bombs
against Crono (which in retrospect I think makes him underrated). But
still, there was little reason to believe that Mario was directly
stronger than Samus before 2k5. --- Vote for Carmen Sandiego in SC2k6 Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness |
| greatone10 | Posted 9/12/2006 6:07:25 PM | message detail |
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The 2k4 stats had Samus > Mario, I believe. --- RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005 Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest. |