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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 357

Master Moltar | Posted 9/12/2006 6:10:30 PM | message detail
Woo, Ada with a red dress pic. That should help her out a bit.

And while there's really no hard proof that Samus > Mario before 2005, you could guess that by looking at their performances. Samus outdoes Mario on Link, Mario looks horrible in 2003, Samus looks excellent in 2004 while Mario doesn't. 2005 was the first year the roles were reversed (Mario looking great while Samus doesn't).

And even so, it's only one match. Ganon did get 54% on Auron, and Samus isn't known to get that much SFF in matches. If Auron wasn't so sketchy, you could make some sort of guess on her value.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Samus vs. Nidoran F - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (0/0)
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/12/2006 6:12:06 PM | message detail
Heroic Mario, which match did you make an account bet on again? Was it Ganondorf/Sonic?

Yes. I made an account bet with Sir Chris on Ganon/Sonic.

Even 7.9% of people newly playing and beating MGS counts. Even if you want to halve that number, it still counts. People playing TTS for the first time when they already played MGS matters, just as how MGS4 will matter even to the people who played previous MGS games (though to a far greater extent, of course).

Does it matter? Certainly. But there was enough reason to speculate that Snake shouldn't have gotten much, if anything, from that game. The amount that it had sold then in comparison to now is also rather different. But the number of people who had played it without playing the original -- who I think matter far more than those who had played the original already -- isn't nearly as large as it looks. There are a few thousand people who have played it without touching the original, regardless of whether or not they liked it.

The fact is, Snake had reason to rise that year. More reason than he had in 2k3 at least, when he *did* boost. But he didn't, and fell miserably.

Even if you want to make it into an argument of scale, that leaves open the possibility for Samus to not benefit -- or at least not benefit as much as one might think -- from something like MP2.

There was more than just Metroid Prime 2. The fact that Nintendo as a whole seemed to be boost while Samus decreased is way too odd. Not only that, but she had a game come out that year to help her along. This is reminding me heavily of Samus not appearing to benefit at all in 2003, but then coming out in 2004 and being a monster. Both of those hidden behind matches that undoubtedly involve SFF.

And you expect me to believe that this is somehow a lock?

You can take Samus's value that was given in the stats as the one she would be at and she's still a lock. Crono is definitely closer to her, but there is the fact that the final of the main bracket -- barring any delays -- takes place in November 13th. The Wii is assuredly going to come out by that time. Metroid Prime 3 is a launch title. I have a hard time believing that Crono, or anyone else, is capable of beating her with that. You have both a game right in the middle of the contest, far more Nintendo fans coming to the site, and the fact that she has, in all likelihood, never been weaker than Crono.

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/12/2006 6:16:14 PM | message detail
Just out of curiosity, could someone point out anything that shows Samus being undeniably stronger than Mario indirectly?

Mario's contest performances have hardly been that impressive before 2005. Samus has been very impressive throughout her entire contest career -- 2002 to 2005 -- and only had one match where she looked bad, and that was against Mario. There is not necessarily undeniable evidence to prove that Samus is indirectly stronger than Mario, but there's enough there to believe it is a possibility -- and a good one at that.

The fact that so many were unwilling to take Mario over Samus in 2005 should give you an idea of how people thought of the both of them. Of course, I took Mario knowing that he was vastly preferred between the Nintendo fanbase and that he had reason to boost that year. It certainly wasn't obvious, at least at the time, but yeah.

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/12/2006 7:07:06 PM | message detail
Spazer Division: Round 1 - Match 2 – (4)Ada Wong vs. (5)Jade

Moltar’s Analysis

Ada Wong
Game/Series Known From: Resident Evil

She’s a newcomer to the tourney. Looks like RE4 got her in.

Jade
Game/Series Known From: Beyond Good and Evil

She’s from a game that’s highly praised, but didn’t sell too well, like so many others.

Two contest newbies going at it early. On one hand is Ada Wong, who you’ll know from the Resident Evil series, and most recently, Resident Evil 4. Heck, that alone is enough to give her the victory over Jade. Beyond Good and Evil is a pretty cult game, and we all know how cult characters do in Contest settings.

No need to write a book here, Ada wins with ease. She should be able to put up good numbers on her opponent. I can’t see Jade being worth anything here.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Ada will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Ada: 67% - Jade: 33%



Ulti’s Analysis

Seriously, who the hell is Jade? This might be one of those matches where midcard fodder is facing such crap that she (Ada in this case) may end up looking WAY stronger than she really is.

But it's Ada, so I won't complain! <3 her in RE4, in both Assignment Ada and Mercs. And **** what anyone says, Ada is better than Leon and Hunk in Mercs.

Oh right, a match. Uh.... hopefully she has the red dress on in the match pic? <_<

Prediction: Ada with 74.67%



HM’s Analysis

First off, woohoo for Ada actually making the female half of the bracket; she starts the contest by representing Resident Evil in a match that she can actually win, too! I think it’s a good possibility that Ada could end up being the strongest Resident Evil female that we’ll see thanks to her not only being in previous Resident Evil games, but also being apart of Resident Evil 4 – the game that revitalized the series.

Ada’s opponent is from the “best game no one has heard of.” Jade is from the critical hit and commercial failure, Beyond Good & Evil. It was a fantastic game with many a Zelda-esque type of gameplay, but it sold like crap. There was a poll somewhere here where it performed horrifically. There’s just no way Ada can lose this one with RE4 on her side. Jade is unfortunately too unknown, though it is pretty surprising that she managed to get into the contest.

Aitch Emm’s Bracket: Ada Wong

Aitch Emm’s Prediction: Ada Wong – 75% ; Jade – 25%

Aitch Emm’s Vote: Ada “S-VIDEO PORT” Wong.



Yoblazer’s Analysis

Whoa, Jade got in?! Who the hell rallied? No matter how you slice it, it's very cool to see that a good, incredibly underappreciated game like Beyond Good and Evil draw enough support to actually get one of its characters in a contest. Unfortunately for the likable heroine, her first and last contest appearance won't be a fruitful one. She's simply far too cult and unknown for her more recognizable opponent.

Believe it or not, the sexy Ada Wong has found a home on the Playstation, N64, Gamecube, and PS2. Not bad for a character who's only starred in two games, huh? She may not have much power in her own right, but Ada is about six bajillion times more mainstream than her nearly unrecognizable opponent, and that's easily than enough to give her the win. For anyone who thinks pictures will make more/any difference in female matches, the RE character is also more attractively drawn. This one will probably be more of a beatdown than most people are expecting.

My prediction: Ada Wong def. Jade (73-27)
Master Moltar | Posted 9/12/2006 7:07:28 PM | message detail
Lopen’s Analysis

This match here might deserve a bit more debate than it has received. You've gotta think…Ada Wong is probably weak. I mean, I can't see her being more popular than Wesker. Yeah, that's right… the same Wesker who was destroyed by Kefka. The same Wesker who practically scraped by Luca Blight! Yeah, Ada Wong will suck it up.

But on the other hand… who's Jade? I thought it was that ninja chick from Mortal Kombat! Thinking that I said "maybe Jade will win". But, the thing is, it's not. I still don't know what she's from. I think CJayC has her listed in that character disambiguation thing, but I'm not even going to look.

… okay, I'll look. Beyond Good and Evil? That name sounds vaguely familiar, and maybe it's all the rage on the Internets, but I don't think so! If I can't even pinpoint what system your game is on, you're going down! Even if it is just Ada Wong! Okay, actually, I wouldn't put it over Jade to upset here… just because she's a total unknown. My percentage implies otherwise but… shut up!

Lopen's Prediction: Ada Wong with 59.18%



KH’s Analysis

lol x-stats history

Ada Wong

lol N/A

Hey, it's Ada! From the popular Resident Evil series, she also happens to appear in both of the most popular games in the series -- RE2 and RE4. However, she is not a main character in either -- she happens to be playable in certain sections and side stories, but not much else. Still, she has a good chance at being the most popular RE character after Leon and Jill. Heck, she might even give Jill a run for her money, but we're getting ahead of ourselves. And her opponent -- !

Jade

lol N/A

Uh...okay, I will separate myself from the rest of the pack in that I know who Jade from BG&E is, despite never having played it. That being said, I'm pretty sure when I first saw the name 'Jade' in the bracket I thought of the Mortal Kombat character.

And most people won't even get that far. That doesn't mean good things for Jade...

Notable Releases Since Last Appearance

Ada Wong: Resident Evil 2 (PS), Resident Evil 4 (GC, PS2)

Jade: Beyond Good and Evil (Multi)

Upcoming Releases

Ada Wong: Resident Evil 5 (PS3)
Jade: I'll be honest, I don't know. N/A?

Apparently, last time people said I went overboard on what was supposed to be an OBVIOUS matchup. Why must you all criticize me?! ;_;

Well, I can guarantee you the Crew is going to be talking about this match more than the last one (out of necessity), so it's my turn to be elitist -- this won't even close. At worst, it's the next Wesker/Luca Blight, but this match will never be in question. Ever. No X-Stats, no abstract theories, it's just that I'd probably take almost ANY RE character over Jade.

Um...need some filler...HEY, did you know that I religiously speedrun a random RE game every six months or so? Yeah, I'm awesome like that.

Karma Hunter's Vote: Ada. I don't know who Jade is. >_<

Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Ada Wong with 68.92%.

RE alone won't get you the blowouts, but with Ada a good bit above Wesker it should prove easy enough against fodder like Jade...hopefully.

Upset Potential: 1%

I could be completely off and have Ada even weaker than Wesker. And at that point, hey, even Lloyd could beat him...ouch. If Ada bombs enough, Jade should take it closely but ho-hum.

Upset Prediction: Jade with 53% of the vote.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/12/2006 7:08:34 PM | message detail
Guest’s Analysis - Phediuk

First things first. This is not the Jade form Mortal Kombat.

This is not the Jade from Mortal Kombat.

This is NOT the Jade from Mortal Kombat.

Okay? Okay.

Jade is from Beyond Good and Evil. Beyond Good and Evil is one of those "criminally underrated" games that everyone has heard of and everyone has told themselves "hey, I should play that game sometime", and then they never do. So about 3 people have actually played Beyond Good and Evil, and all of Jade's other nominations came from people who felt guilty for not playing it or people who wanted to look hardcore by pretending they had played it.

Ada is from Resident Evil 4. Yes, she's also in Resident Evil 2, but no one cares about those chunky pieces of crap anymore. The Resident Evil series may as well be renamed Resident Evil 4. So instead of Resident Evil 5, we see Resident Evil 4-2. Now no one ever has to acknowledge the existence of "classic RE", which is really just the pretentious "hardcore" RE fan's way of trying to make his wang look bigger than yours by pretending to like crappy games. Please go throw the old RE games into the same landfill as those old ET cartridges. Please.

So yeah. Resident Evil 4 versus the less-rare current-gen version of Panzer Dragoon Saga. Not the most difficult match in the world.

Ada with 72%.



Summary: Crew has Ada winning. Majority says she'll at least double and get 70%, but Lopen doesn't walk that way.
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/12/2006 7:11:06 PM | message detail
Wow, high numbers for Ada...
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Big Bob | Posted 9/12/2006 7:11:54 PM | message detail
I can proudly say I AM one of the three people who's played BG&E! Hell, I own it!
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 9/12/2006 7:33:17 PM | message detail
BG&E is a good game, but I'm still voting Ada.

Oh and Samus is clearly doomed thanks to this match... clearly.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
Draco1214 | Posted 9/12/2006 7:33:59 PM | message detail
Since I could care less about either character, I guess I'll vote for Jade since she'll lose.
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Character Battle V Score - 1/1 point(s)
Current Prediction - Ada Wong vs. Jade
KingBartz | Posted 9/12/2006 7:36:46 PM | message detail
Jade's pic absolutely blows. Cjay at least could have tried to remove that giant SHADOW from on top of her.

Seriously. You can't see a damn thing.

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creativename | Posted 9/12/2006 8:12:22 PM | message detail
The one thing that concerns me about the next match is the name factor. Jade has the much better name.

Normally this would be utterly trivial, but I have to think that the majority of voters have never heard of either character. "Jade" at least though is a name people have heard in other contexts. When dealing with two such utter weaklings, who knows, maybe that'd be enough to swing people preferences over to Jade instead of someone else they don't recognize.

Ada deserves to be the favorite because she's from RE4, but this match seems like a good shot at something weird happening.
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 9/12/2006 8:13:23 PM | message detail
Pic factor >>>>>>> Name factor, and Ada has it.

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Philadelphia's Path to Cheer Up Emo Kids (1-0) - Next week vs. New York Giants.
creativename | Posted 9/12/2006 8:13:29 PM | message detail
Also, I think a pretty substantial number of the female/female fodder matches have chances of weird stuff happening anyway.
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creativename | Posted 9/12/2006 8:14:51 PM | message detail
Pic factor >>>>>>> Name factor, and Ada has it.

Yes, that's enough to have a bit more confidence in Ada. And Ada should certainly be the favorite. But it seems like a volatile situation to me.
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 9/12/2006 8:17:05 PM | message detail
If Jade gets more than 40 I'll be pretty surprised, more than 45 and I'll be stunned.

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Explicit Content
Philadelphia's Path to Cheer Up Emo Kids (1-0) - Next week vs. New York Giants.
therealmnm | Posted 9/12/2006 8:21:36 PM | message detail
Well yeah, but I don't buy the talk of an Ada tripling either. A doubling I could see though, although I'm thinking it will be 63-37 or so.
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Haste_2 | Posted 9/12/2006 8:22:24 PM | message detail
It's dang tough for characters around the fodder line and lower to score blowouts...I noticed most of the gurus were estimating Ada with 70+%, but Jade would practically have to be as popular as Guybrush for Ada to do that. I'd imagine Ada Wong is aways below Jill Valentine, and I'd guess Ada Wong is around the fodder line, if not slightly underneath it.

Well, if Ada does impress it'll make me feel better about Claire vs. Kairi.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 9/12/2006 8:22:34 PM | message detail
I have 68 in the oracle, and I want to change to 65 but if it ends up being close to 68 I'll just end up kicking myself.

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Explicit Content
Philadelphia's Path to Cheer Up Emo Kids (1-0) - Next week vs. New York Giants.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/12/2006 8:25:37 PM | message detail
I feel the same way EC. RE4 is a pretty popular game, so I'm hoping Ada can gather up enough votes from there. Jade should be able to keep it under 70%, but her getting 35% is a bit of a stretch to me.

Maybe I'm just overrating how much RE4 will help Ada is all.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Ada Wong vs. Jade - Bracket: Ada - Vote: Ada (1/1)
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 9/12/2006 8:27:00 PM | message detail
If Ada was up against anyone who actually had a fanbase and was the main character, I probably wouldn't pick her, but people just being able to recognize Ada should boost her over 60% easily.

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Explicit Content
Philadelphia's Path to Cheer Up Emo Kids (1-0) - Next week vs. New York Giants.
Draco1214 | Posted 9/12/2006 8:29:22 PM | message detail
This is a fodder vs. fodder match, and anything can happen. To be honest, RE4 was the sole reason I picked Ada.
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Character Battle V Score - 1/1 point(s)
Current Prediction - Ada Wong vs. Jade
MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/12/2006 8:35:42 PM | message detail
Ada's picture alone would help her win over Jade even if nobody knew who she was, which they do.
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KingBartz | Posted 9/12/2006 8:39:14 PM | message detail
Would this mean Nidoran F > Lara Croft?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1749

lol just kidding, but I don't think Tomb Raider has gotten any more popular since 2004... I wonder how Lara will do in her match?

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SC2K6: 1/1 Today's pick: Ada Wong
Draco1214 | Posted 9/12/2006 8:40:18 PM | message detail
Well, Lara's path is pretty much set. She obliterates Alyx Vance and gets destroyed by Chun-Li.
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Character Battle V Score - 1/1 point(s)
Current Prediction - Ada Wong vs. Jade
KingBartz | Posted 9/12/2006 8:44:14 PM | message detail
yeah, but by how much will she be destroyed? I'd say she barely avoids a doubling.

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SC2K6: 1/1 Today's pick: Ada Wong
Who Cares? | Posted 9/12/2006 8:45:08 PM | message detail
Compared to the Series Contest, looks like the votals for this match will land between Mario/Madden & Sonic/DMC, the 18th & 19th highest vote getters. Nice way to start off!
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/12/2006 8:45:53 PM | message detail
For what it's worth, her stats was shockingly worse in 2k4 than 2k2 or 2k3 if you're hunting for an anomaly, and she has recently had her biggest game since TR2.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Draco1214 | Posted 9/12/2006 8:45:58 PM | message detail
Chun Li (2005c) VS Lara Croft (2004c)

Chun Li has a strength of 24.92.
Lara Croft has a strength of 14.91.

Chun Li wins with 70.08% of the vote!
A win of 37,831 with 94,181 total votes cast.

But Lara's had a new game since then; one that supposedly revived the series. I guess a doubling sounds fine.
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Character Battle V Score - 1/1 point(s)
Current Prediction - Ada Wong vs. Jade
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/12/2006 8:55:26 PM | message detail
I probably overestimate Ada because I have no clue who Jade even is, but whatever.

~*ST*~
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/12/2006 8:58:45 PM | message detail
I probably overestimate Ada because I have no clue who Jade even is, but whatever.

This will be the reason why Jade gets destroyed.

If you've played through RE2 or RE4, you know who Ada is. You can only definitively say the same about Wesker if you've played through RE, RE: CV, or the REmake. And he's never playable usually relegated to the shadows (much like Ocelot). RE2 and RE4 >>> those games, and Ada is both prominent and playable in both.

Even if Claire takes out Kairi, I have a hunch Ada will be stronger in the stats when all is said and done.
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/12/2006 8:59:52 PM | message detail
Yeah, I'm expecting Ada to end up above Claire too...
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Master Moltar | Posted 9/12/2006 9:00:19 PM | message detail
Ada Wong 77.78% 49
Jade 22.22% 14
TOTAL VOTES 63

Ouch
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Ada Wong vs. Jade - Bracket: Ada - Vote: Ada (1/1)
Dark115 | Posted 9/12/2006 9:00:45 PM | message detail
Ada Wong 78.26% 18
Jade 21.74% 5
TOTAL VOTES 23

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All Hail the Guru Champ Z1mZum!
Draco1214 | Posted 9/12/2006 9:01:15 PM | message detail
Gentlemen, I believe we've found our last place.
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Character Battle V Score - 1/1 point(s)
Current Prediction - Ada Wong vs. Jade
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/12/2006 9:01:22 PM | message detail
Go Ada go!
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ExThaNemesis? More like ExThOWNEDNemesis! ND>PSU What a blowout; the Lions must suck, but thats the way ExTha likes it.
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/12/2006 9:01:29 PM | message detail
Good show, Ada. This is what I expected her to be around.

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
Haste_2 | Posted 9/12/2006 9:01:51 PM | message detail
Okay, okay, I concede...Jade is as weak as Guybrush.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/12/2006 9:02:20 PM | message detail
If Claire can take out Kairi, whose to say she can't take out Rikku too? >_> oh yeah, and Jades gonna job hard.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/12/2006 9:02:29 PM | message detail
<3 Ada doing well. One of the best RE characters.
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ExThaNemesis? More like ExThOWNEDNemesis! ND>PSU What a blowout; the Lions must suck, but thats the way ExTha likes it.
Haste_2 | Posted 9/12/2006 9:02:34 PM | message detail
But I'm just kidding, since we're 1 minute into the match. :p

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/12/2006 9:02:40 PM | message detail
Goodbye Kairi! ;_;
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DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/12/2006 9:03:00 PM | message detail
Pwned!
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/12/2006 9:03:09 PM | message detail
Kairi is so screwed
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ExThaNemesis? More like ExThOWNEDNemesis! ND>PSU What a blowout; the Lions must suck, but thats the way ExTha likes it.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/12/2006 9:03:20 PM | message detail
Goodbye Kairi! ;_;

Now you see the light!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Ada Wong vs. Jade - Bracket: Ada - Vote: Ada (1/1)
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/12/2006 9:03:23 PM | message detail
Goodbye Kairi

Unlike Claire, Ada has actually been in the most popular game in the series.

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...a lone figure shining in the toxic shadows. She comes dressed for war, and her wrath is terrible.
KingBartz | Posted 9/12/2006 9:03:37 PM | message detail
Interesting.

Jade has absolutely no chance.

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SC2K6: 1/1 Today's pick: Ada Wong
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/12/2006 9:03:47 PM | message detail
Sephiroth > All
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ExThaNemesis? More like ExThOWNEDNemesis! ND>PSU What a blowout; the Lions must suck, but thats the way ExTha likes it.
rpgapzx | Posted 9/12/2006 9:03:51 PM | message detail
Heroic Mario was 2 years off.

MegaMan for SC2K6 male bracket champion.


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UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/12/2006 9:03:52 PM | message detail
Ada being stronger than Claire is debatable? One is in RE4. The other is not. Where's the issue here?

~*ST*~
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