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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 356

longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/10/2006 1:33:46 PM | message detail
As you'll soon see, alot of people!

Lets hope the same thing applies to Cortana, Mr. Joanna Dark Numbah One Supporter :P
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/10/2006 1:35:14 PM | message detail
Someone mentioned Mega Man ZX coming out right as the contest starts. Does anybody know if Zeros gonna be in that? Yeah yeah, it might be obvious, but I'm just covering my ass here.
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AmazingKirby | Posted 9/10/2006 1:35:34 PM | message detail
I'm actually somewhat nervous about Claire. 95% of me says she'll lose easily to Kairi. The other 5% of me says she could blast through Kairi and Rikku.
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/10/2006 1:36:34 PM | message detail
Keep in mind theres a fine line between Tidus/Auron/Yuna/Rikku....
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/10/2006 1:38:46 PM | message detail
You're right, what am I saying? If Claire is weaker than she was when she couldn't beat Tidus, then she won't be able to beat Rikku!
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/10/2006 1:40:58 PM | message detail
>_> That wasn't my point at all. Lemme phrase it this way...what do you think Sora would get on the four big FFX characters? Lower it a little for Riku, lower it even more for Kairi, then you've got a decent way of looking at Claire/Kairi, if you cut through all the bullcrap in between.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/10/2006 1:46:52 PM | message detail
Oh...

Sora 54%
Riku 51%
Kairi 45%

Western Round 1 --- Lost to (8) Tidus, 28117 [44.54%] - 35004 [55.46%]

Kairi wins!
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/10/2006 1:47:13 PM | message detail
Well, I doubt Kairi would beat Terra, and I think that Claire's still above Terra, so...
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/10/2006 1:48:05 PM | message detail
You doubt Kairi would beat Terra? Excuse me while I go reenact the FFX laughing scene.
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/10/2006 1:51:08 PM | message detail
But would you take Kairi over Kefka? >_> mother friggin Squaresoft character fourpacks o wtf
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
charmander6000 | Posted 9/10/2006 1:55:53 PM | message detail
Here's some more Guru Stats from the first two pages (69 Brackets)

Kairi - 26
Claire - 10

Kairi - 45
Claire - 24

Claire has been gaining support.

The Boss - 20
Celes - 16

The Boss - 42
Celes - 27

Surprisingly support for Celes has dropped.

Gordon Freeman - 24
Phoenix Wright - 12

Gordon Freeman - 47
Phoenix Wright - 22

Support is more or less the same.

Ganondorf - 23
Vincent - 13

Ganondorf - 45
Vincent - 24

Little movement here as well.

Zero - 22
Luigi - 14

Zero - 42
Luigi - 27

Again no change.

Peach - 30
Jill - 5
Shenna - 1

Peach - 56
Jill - 12
Sheena - 1

I'm surprised that there are still very little Jill support.

Yoshi - 20
Dante - 16

Yoshi - 37
Dante - 32

Yoshi/Dante is still split.

Kirby - 17
Zero - 15
Luigi - 4

Kirby - 34
Zero - 25
Luigi - 10

Kirby still can't get over 50% and whatever Zero lost Luigi gained.

Crono - 25
Sonic - 5
Mega Man - 5
Ganondorf - 1

Crono - 50
Sonic - 8
Mega Man - 7
Ganondorf - 2
Solid Snake - 2

Snake gets people taking him to win the male bracket and Sonic leads Mega Man by 1.

Samus - 26
Crono - 7
Mega Man - 2
Sonic - 1

Samus - 48
Crono - 17
Mega Man - 3
Sonic - 1

Samus loses a bit of her lead and Crono does better.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/10/2006 2:01:52 PM | message detail
Zero will be in Mega Man XZ as far as I'm concerned. So will "X", I believe.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/10/2006 2:02:08 PM | message detail
Er, ZX.. whatever. <_<
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them.” - Vivi0198
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/10/2006 2:09:40 PM | message detail
You doubt Kairi would beat Terra? Excuse me while I go reenact the FFX laughing scene.

So then, what's your reasoning for Kairi > Terra? I'd like to hear it.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
therealmnm | Posted 9/10/2006 2:12:51 PM | message detail
Someone mentioned Mega Man ZX coming out right as the contest starts. Does anybody know if Zeros gonna be in that? Yeah yeah, it might be obvious, but I'm just covering my ass here.

The actual characters won't be in it, but their "molds" will be in it, essentially turning your character into X and Zero. But seeing how every incarnation of Mega Man is considered to be part of the main character, then yeah "Zero" will be in this game. I think they need to do a better job of promoting this game to MMX fans though. I almost let this one slip by!
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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/10/2006 2:23:43 PM | message detail
Hmm... anyone else go a little overboard on the Kairi/Claire analysis?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/10/2006 2:26:13 PM | message detail
Heh, I'm still stuck on Yoshi/Dante.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them.” - Vivi0198
creativename | Posted 9/10/2006 2:26:38 PM | message detail
Regarding Final Fantasy VI, I'd take Shadow over Terra without any hesitation.

(I would've done this before Terra flopped too)


I wouldn't be surprised to see Mega Man fail to match Snake's performance against Sora (perhaps even fall substantially short), followed by Snake gathering a lot more belief against Mega Man, yet Mega Man still wins.
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creativename | Posted 9/10/2006 2:27:26 PM | message detail
I do not understand why Yoshi is favored over Dante.
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/10/2006 2:27:28 PM | message detail
Hmm... anyone else go a little overboard on the Kairi/Claire analysis?

If by overboard ya mean "this could be a potential bracketbustah because we dunno Kairi's strength and Claire hasn't made an appearance in quite a few years and isn't in RE4" then yes >_>
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/10/2006 2:29:04 PM | message detail
I do not understand why Yoshi is favored over Dante.

Judging by his respective matches against Bowser and Luigi, it's believed he's somewhere in between.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them.” - Vivi0198
Lopen | Posted 9/10/2006 2:31:54 PM | message detail
I don't think I really went overboard on any analyses yet. I attribute this to Leonhart's corrupting wall-of-textual touch being removed. Well, Sheena/Jill is a bit long, but I had a lot to fight for, there!

And how the heck am I the one that's ahead of the game, here? I took pride in being a procrastinatory champ last crew!
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/10/2006 2:34:49 PM | message detail
So then, what's your reasoning for Kairi > Terra? I'd like to hear it.

I don't know, but with Sora close to Dante, you can see Kairi so much lower to only get 28%? Kingdom Hearts is one of the biggest games out there, and I'll be damned if one of it's main characters, liked or not, can't get 28% on Dante. Riku got 48% on Frog. Terra wouldn't even get 38. Kairi's not that weak, unless she really is that weak, in which case, I'm wrong. But we'll just have to wait a few more days, until you can make fun of me for that.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/10/2006 2:41:54 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy 3/6 is one of the biggest games out there, and I'll be damned if one of it's main characters, liked or not, can't get 28% on Dante.
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Lopen | Posted 9/10/2006 2:42:10 PM | message detail
I don't know, I could certainly see Ansem beating Kairi, and Ansem is projected to get... you guessed it... 28% on Dante. Of course, this is also a likely overrated Ansem due to the Ganondorf ridiculousness against Sephiroth.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/10/2006 2:43:40 PM | message detail
I don't know, but with Sora close to Dante, you can see Kairi so much lower to only get 28%? Kingdom Hearts is one of the biggest games out there, and I'll be damned if one of it's main characters, liked or not, can't get 28% on Dante. Riku got 48% on Frog.

Thanks for bringing Frog up. Frog gets 31% on Crono. Now, assuming that Sora 2k6 is as strong as Dante 2k5 (which is, I think, a fair assumption), Kairi has to be as close to Sora as Frog is to Crono for her to beat Terra. Kairi's no Frog (she's not even a Marle...), and unless you think she is, she's not beating Terra.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/10/2006 2:43:49 PM | message detail
Just curious, but where does everyone project Dante and Yoshi to really be?
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them.” - Vivi0198
Samurai7 | Posted 9/10/2006 2:44:13 PM | message detail
I don't know, I could certainly see Ansem beating Kairi, and Ansem is projected to get... you guessed it... 28% on Dante. Of course, this is also a likely overrated Ansem due to the Ganondorf ridiculousness against Sephiroth.

pre-kh2
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AmazingKirby | Posted 9/10/2006 2:44:44 PM | message detail
Yeah well, we already know Terra's a flop. Kairi hasn't even been in a match yet. How am I supposed to provide concrete evidence for something like that!? Seriously, like I'm so wrong for taking a guess. Pfft.
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/10/2006 2:47:22 PM | message detail
Oh yeah, heres another. Tifa/Zelda/Aeris. Who wins outta those three ladies? I have Tifa over Zelda right now, but I still am quite concerned bout this one.
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AmazingKirby | Posted 9/10/2006 2:48:13 PM | message detail
Kairi has to be as close to Sora as Frog is to Crono for her to beat Terra. Kairi's no Frog (she's not even a Marle...), and unless you think she is, she's not beating Terra.

Well, I think Kairi could get 31% on Sora if they weren't from the same series. Anyway, if we're going to debate Kairi/Terra, we might as well declare Claire the winner with 70%.
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Lopen | Posted 9/10/2006 2:49:20 PM | message detail
pre-kh2

Yeah, okay, that'll at best counteract the Ganondorf overratedness methinks. In any case, I don't think Kairi's going to be anything special... with pretty much the same logic as I had in thinking Terra wasn't going to be anything special.

I'd take Axel or Ansem over Kairi. They've both got more appeal I think.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/10/2006 2:51:03 PM | message detail
How am I supposed to provide concrete evidence for something like that!?

You're not. You're supposed to provide logic and reason. You could rebut my argument with something like:

Kairi's the main female of the KH series, and her main scene in KH2 is just as touching as Aeris's in FFVII. She won't just be as strong as Frog compared to Crono, she'll be as strong as Aeris compared to Cloud. It doesn't matter that she's not playable; after all, it's hardly Aeris's battle prowess that gives her strength. Besides, many of the people who like KH don't like Sora that much, certainly not as much as FFVII fans like Cloud, so it'll be far easier for Kairi to be close to Sora than it is for Aeris to be close to Cloud. Under these circumstances, Claire doesn't have to drop much at all from her 2k2 strength (which she certainly has) in order to lose to Kairi. Hell, under these circumstances, even JILL would lose to Kairi.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/10/2006 2:52:16 PM | message detail
Oh yeah, heres another. Tifa/Zelda/Aeris. Who wins outta those three ladies? I have Tifa over Zelda right now, but I still am quite concerned bout this one.

If you have Tifa over Samus, you certainly shouldn't be concerned about taking her over Zelda...
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/10/2006 2:53:58 PM | message detail
*Looks back on bracket*

I totally meant to say I have Aeris over Zelda. Seriously >_>
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/10/2006 3:00:07 PM | message detail
I totally meant to say I have Aeris over Zelda. Seriously >_>

Well, it's all but certain that the match will take place after TP, and an absolute fact that Zelda will have a big role in the game (after all, it's called Twilight Princess). Without TP, the match might be debatable, but with it? I don't think so.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/10/2006 3:01:04 PM | message detail
I'm not sure I understand why you're asking me why Kairi would beat Terra if you can already name all those reasons yourself. What is there to gain if you name all of Kairi's advantages and still think Terra's going to win? Asking me isn't going to change anything. Is this really the true nature of the stats topic?
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/10/2006 3:07:08 PM | message detail
I'm not sure I understand why you're asking me why Kairi would beat Terra if you can already name all those reasons yourself. What is there to gain if you name all of Kairi's advantages and still think Terra's going to win? Asking me isn't going to change anything. Is this really the true nature of the stats topic?

Well, you can twist any facts that way. I could've said that she'll be as strong compared to Sora as Rikku is to Tidus, and since Sora is now > Tidus, she'll definitely beat Rikku. Or I could call Zelda rSFFing Samus to victory, Leon beating Bowser because Bowser was overrated in 2k5 and RE4PS2 will double his strength, etc. I certainly don't believe any of that.

Part of the reason to post arguments is to convince others that you're right. Another part is just to convince them that you could be right. It's a lot more interesting seeing a cohesive argument than it is to see "Excuse me while I go reenact the FFX laughing scene".
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 9/10/2006 3:10:38 PM | message detail
Finally caught up with the old topic, haven't read this one yet, but I'm glad people are finally recognizing that this bracket isn't that good. Sure there are matches that you can go either way on, but 2K5 was far better, some situations Ceej just completely ignored in the male bracket, as in some really obvious switching of characters to another division while maintaining the same seed. Sure the female half is partially responsible for it sucking more than usual (...I still don't know why ANYONE would have wanted one), but the male half could have been done so much better it isn't funny.

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Tequilla Gundam | Posted 9/10/2006 3:12:40 PM | message detail
but I'm glad people are finally recognizing that this bracket isn't that good.

Que? No one is complaining except you.
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 9/10/2006 3:13:25 PM | message detail
...okay, sure they aren't. You're a joke.

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Lopen | Posted 9/10/2006 3:15:30 PM | message detail
Psh. I'm complaining on the inside. There's so much wrong with it. Sora's division could've been a nightmare, but instead we have pretty much a gimme section with PW/Gordon being the most debated match.

Stick Vincent/Ganondorf in Snake's division? Suddenly a ton more are taking this upset. Bowser seems so wasted. Hell, Ryu too to a lesser extent. I could go on and on.
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AmazingKirby | Posted 9/10/2006 3:16:08 PM | message detail
Yeah, I get what you're talking about. But you should know better than to expect a cohesive argument from me anyway.

And here comes EC again, with his "this bracket sucks" talk! I guess we can complain if we want, but it's not going to change the bracket if we do it as much as we can!
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/10/2006 3:20:47 PM | message detail
Psh. I'm complaining on the inside. There's so much wrong with it. Sora's division could've been a nightmare, but instead we have pretty much a gimme section with PW/Gordon being the most debated match.

Stick Vincent/Ganondorf in Snake's division? Suddenly a ton more are taking this upset. Bowser seems so wasted. Hell, Ryu too to a lesser extent. I could go on and on.


People said EXACTLY the same things last year about MC's division and Ganon/Auron. I don't get why this year's bracket is so much worse than 2k5's.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Lopen | Posted 9/10/2006 3:24:58 PM | message detail
People said EXACTLY the same things last year about MC's division and Ganon/Auron. I don't get why this year's bracket is so much worse than 2k5's.

Well, Master Chief's division really wasn't that good. MC/DK was a good match, but the rest was eh. The thing is, last year still had Dante's division and to a lesser extent Kirby's. What does this one have? It needed to use Sora's division to its fullest to be really good, because of all of those wasted female divisions.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/10/2006 3:37:57 PM | message detail
I dunno what everyones complainin about. This bracket is perfectly acceptable IMO.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/10/2006 4:00:08 PM | message detail
It's definitely imperfect, but it's got some of the most flip-floppable matches and biggest fears to date. Dante/Yoshi, Luigi/Zero, Ganon/Vincent, the fear of what TP could do if it comes out in October, the Battle Royal being so unusual to what we usually know and do, the universe imploding...

...I agree, there are missed opportunities -- switch Ryu and PoP, for example, as it's been pointed out before -- but the bracket still has room to be plenty enjoyable, even for contest standards.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Janus5000 | Posted 9/10/2006 4:03:26 PM | message detail
Well, Master Chief's division really wasn't that good. MC/DK was a good match, but the rest was eh.

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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/10/2006 4:05:43 PM | message detail
I agree. There are obviously some missed opportunities, but I honestly don't think anyone wants a "perfect" bracket. Overkill is bad. This bracket has its fair share of potentially great matches, and it has more outside factors going for it than any other contest.
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Tequilla Gundam | Posted 9/10/2006 4:09:19 PM | message detail
...okay, sure they aren't. You're a joke.

Dot Dot Dot
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