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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 355

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THEJackSparrow | Posted 9/5/2006 4:12:34 PM | message detail

Hmmm...Only one week away, is it? Didn't realize it was so soon.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow

Cavalier Lowen | Posted 9/5/2006 5:20:35 PM | message detail

The idea that Samus cannot SFF anything is about as absurd as thinking Mega Man can SFF anything from Nintendo

Huh? So you're saying that Mega Man can't SFF anything from Nintendo, or that the very notion of thinking it's possible is absurd? Just how weak do you think Yoshi is?
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!

Big Bob | Posted 9/5/2006 5:29:21 PM | message detail

Random fact that you people will laugh at me for pointing out:

Crono's best year was in 2k4, the year with the lowest vote totals.

2k6 is looking to have the HIGHEST vote totals.
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If the universe implodes, this space belongs to NClark128. If the law wins, I win!
September 22nd! Amy Rose > KOS-MOS

therealmnm | Posted 9/5/2006 5:33:09 PM | message detail

Meh, Crono's been pretty consistent. That was more of Mario bombing in 2k4 than Crono having his best year. Crono appeared to be just as strong in 2k5, which had higher vote totals.
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/5/2006 5:34:00 PM | message detail

Oh yeah, cause no can admit to Crono doing better than he usually does >_>
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I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?

Haste_2 | Posted 9/5/2006 5:40:20 PM | message detail

cyko, I'm guessing we're going to see a picture similar to that on the home page, but not nearly as crowded. It would be rather boring for it to be picture-less.

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wavedash101 | Posted 9/5/2006 5:48:14 PM | message detail

How are we going to enjoy using Godot when he is revealed if we cant use Objection? Thats unfair. We support that site a ton. Its unfair for everyone.
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therealmnm | Posted 9/5/2006 5:50:37 PM | message detail

How are we going to enjoy using Godot when he is revealed if we cant use Objection? Thats unfair. We support that site a ton. Its unfair for everyone.

Nobody said you couldn't use Objection. You just can't post it on GameFAQs message boards. I for one can't say I'm not glad.
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wavedash101 | Posted 9/5/2006 5:51:47 PM | message detail

But its best use is on message boards!
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down

Heroic Mario | Posted 9/5/2006 6:18:59 PM | message detail

Huh? So you're saying that Mega Man can't SFF anything from Nintendo, or that the very notion of thinking it's possible is absurd? Just how weak do you think Yoshi is?

Somehow -- somewhere along the line -- people got the crazy idea that Mega Man was somehow capable of SFFing pretty much anything weaker and/or stronger than him that came from Nintendo. That line of thinking is absurd because there has only been one match where Mega Man did any type of positive SFF, if we're to call it that, against a Nintendo opponent -- Yoshi. I'm sure something did happen there, but it suddenly doesn't make Mega Man capable of rSFFing Samus to win a match or something equally as ludicrous.

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"Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120."

Big Bob | Posted 9/5/2006 6:21:08 PM | message detail

If Objections were moderated on the day of Phoenix/Gordon it'd be understandable, but its best use WAS in response to something someone said, so why bother?
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If the universe implodes, this space belongs to NClark128. If the law wins, I win!
September 22nd! Amy Rose > KOS-MOS

ExplicitAriel | Posted 9/5/2006 6:23:29 PM | message detail

I don't think I'm even going to come here on the day of Gordon/Phoenix, it's just going to be a huge ***** fest, OMG TEH UNIVERSE, with no sanity to be found.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/5/2006 6:24:10 PM | message detail

I'm starting to think Wright actually has a chance if he gets enough rallying.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them.” - Vivi0198

MarkSmith | Posted 9/5/2006 6:25:55 PM | message detail

Snake wouldny bhave lost to a non NNer in 2004. What a lot of you guys interpret as gains and losses are simply flaws in our extrapolation system, flaws in the SFF adjustment system, and our inability to recognize other factors.

The NN will not fall in the foreseeable future unless FF& gets remade and Snake or Sonic has to face Vincent.
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"The government big enough to give you everything you want is big enough to take everything you have"-Gerald Ford

MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/5/2006 6:26:03 PM | message detail

Phoenix Wright doesn't have the WoW forums backing him up. Objection! is not that big a site.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/5/2006 6:27:55 PM | message detail

Yeah, but how the heck did Wright get a 4-seed in a 32-entry bracket? If CJayC didn't rig that seed, he had to have had quite a few nominations.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them.” - Vivi0198

therealmnm | Posted 9/5/2006 6:30:21 PM | message detail

Not if we get vote totals anywhere near that of the series contests. Unless it's already a 50/50 matchup, I don't see rallying getting Wright the win against those types of numbers.

I still think it will be closer than some people are giving it though. Phoenix Wright may not be a high selling game, but he has the namesake of his game. People will at least recognize the name, so I can see him drawing a lot of votes from DS gamers among others that simply don't care for PC gaming or more specifically a character from Half-Life. I'm included in that group. I don't really care for the Phoenix Wright fad, but I'm still more interested in his game than I am in Half-Life. So he gets my vote just to at least help stir things up. I wouldn't be surprised it it's within 55-45.
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ExplicitAriel | Posted 9/5/2006 6:31:19 PM | message detail

Yeah, but how the heck did Wright get a 4-seed in a 32-entry bracket? If CJayC didn't rig that seed, he had to have had quite a few nominations.

The same way the Prince of Persia got a 6 seed after never being in a contest before, that's a 3 seed in the normal set-up, PW would have a 2. Just because you have a bunch of mindless fanboys doesn't mean you have enough of a fanbase to actually win a match. Hell PW is going to need more votes than number of copies his game sold here.

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Draco1214 | Posted 9/5/2006 6:33:48 PM | message detail

cyko | Posted 9/5/2006 6:36:07 PM | message detail

The same way the Prince of Persia got a 6 seed after never being in a contest before, that's a 3 seed in the normal set-up, PW would have a 2. Just because you have a bunch of mindless fanboys doesn't mean you have enough of a fanbase to actually win a match. Hell PW is going to need more votes than number of copies his game sold here.

i think you mean that the Prince would be a 12/13 and Phoenix would be a 8/9 seed. >_>

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ExplicitAriel | Posted 9/5/2006 6:37:13 PM | message detail

i think you mean that the Prince would be a 12/13 and Phoenix would be a 8/9 seed. >_>

Um no. If we had 64 males, there would be 4 more male divisions, and they would have higher seeds. The males who didn't get into this would have the 9+ seeds.

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cyko | Posted 9/5/2006 6:41:07 PM | message detail

cyko, I'm guessing we're going to see a picture similar to that on the home page, but not nearly as crowded. It would be rather boring for it to be picture-less.

yeah, a pic similar to the contest banner is a definite possibility. but, it would look kind of squished in the regular contest pic space. unless, Ceej did make a Battle Royale pic to replace the main banner and stuck it in the same place the current banner is in. i suppose that's possible, too.

i would like to see it take place without a pic, though; just to see IF it would make a difference in this case. although, i am inclined to agree with mnm and red sox that Crono would be the first or second character eliminated from this bunch with or without a picture.

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!

cyko | Posted 9/5/2006 6:42:14 PM | message detail

oh, you meant that way, EC. i thought you were talking about if we had 4 divisions of 16 rather than 8 divisions of 8. my bad.

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!

ExplicitAriel | Posted 9/5/2006 6:45:20 PM | message detail

Yeah, except I didn't take into account females who would get higher seeds than them. >_> So probably bump each one down one seed. Still that's really high seeds for people who have never been in a contest to get, it doesn't show any form of strength.

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AmazingKirby | Posted 9/5/2006 6:47:23 PM | message detail

I seriously shake my head in shame for humanity every time there is debate for this match.
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ExplicitAriel | Posted 9/5/2006 6:48:27 PM | message detail

So do I... honestly I expect 60% for Gordon at least.

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AmazingKirby | Posted 9/5/2006 6:52:06 PM | message detail

I would take Yuri over Phoenix with 50.05%.
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greatone10 | Posted 9/5/2006 6:54:53 PM | message detail

Phoenix ain't THAT bad, but I would honestly have a hard time seeing him break 55 on Manny Calavera.
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Master Moltar | Posted 9/5/2006 6:55:02 PM | message detail

I wouldn't. The thought of Shadow Hearts winning something gives me a hearty laugh.
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Moltar Status: Bracket filled and ready to go.
2006 is the year of Samus Aran

Kyle Bowen | Posted 9/5/2006 6:56:44 PM | message detail

Shadow Hearts won my heart.... that counts for something.

^_^

KB

cyko | Posted 9/5/2006 6:57:05 PM | message detail

The number of copies Phoenix Wright has sold is irrelevant, IMO. This is a fodder vs. fodder match, and the average voter (who does not care about either of these characters) will vote for the one that has more appeal, which is the main reason I chose Phoenix.

i agree with Draco for the most part. Phoenix looks cooler, sounds cooler, is a bit more recognizable, and is from a Nintendo system. Phoenix is going to have more casual appeal. i mean, c'mon - PHOENIX WRIGHT!!!! or........ gordon freeman...... even Phoenix's name sounds cooler.

i really do want to go with Phoenix and up until 2K5, i definitely would have taken him. but Gordon's match against Leon really worries me. Gordon actually did respectably against Leon, who did respectably against Megaman. so, i have to ask, did Half-Life 2 really raise Gordon's stock THAT much? Half-Life 2 did come out between 2K4 and 2K5, so it is possible that more people figured out who he is. but, has interest in Gordon and possibly even Half-Life 2 worn off since then? i dunno........

but, i seriously doubt that either one of them will finish with over 55%.

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!

AmazingKirby | Posted 9/5/2006 6:57:58 PM | message detail

is a bit more recognizable,

W.
T.
F.
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therealmnm | Posted 9/5/2006 7:00:47 PM | message detail

I'm just saying that Phoenix Wright having the name of his game will make him respectable fodder rather than bottom feeder fodder like Yuri or Manny. I mean, think about how weak Phoenix Wright would be if the game wasn't named Phoenix Wright Ace Attourney. Then I could see him perhaps losing to Yuri. But being so weak, having the name of his game ought to do wonders for him relatively. I mean, it's not like the DS had tons of notable games during it's first year or two. That gave Phoenix Wright:AA a bit more spotlight than it normally should have.

Just an alternative point of view.
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Big Bob | Posted 9/5/2006 7:01:46 PM | message detail

I'm certain that Phoenix would kick Yuri and Manny's asses. Gordon's a step up from those guys, but I see it in my heart that Phoenix will win.

Or, should win.

To be honest I'm not entirely confident in that pick, but my gut is refusing to let me change it.
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If the universe implodes, this space belongs to NClark128. If the law wins, I win!
September 22nd! Amy Rose > KOS-MOS

Master Moltar | Posted 9/5/2006 7:02:26 PM | message detail

but Gordon's match against Leon really worries me. Gordon actually did respectably against Leon, who did respectably against Megaman.

About time that match is brought up. Mentioning post-HL2 Gordon/post-RE4 Leon should kill any doubts against Freeman losing the match. He might overperform, but Wright isn't winning.
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Moltar Status: Bracket filled and ready to go.
2006 is the year of Samus Aran

Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/5/2006 7:03:58 PM | message detail

Snake wouldny bhave lost to a non NNer in 2004. What a lot of you guys interpret as gains and losses are simply flaws in our extrapolation system, flaws in the SFF adjustment system, and our inability to recognize other factors.

So then why did Snake do so much worse against Knuckles and Mega Man that year? Why do ANY rematch results change? Your arguments for why the noble nine is invincible are ridiculous.

but, has interest in Gordon and possibly even Half-Life 2 worn off since then? i dunno........

Nope. HLE1 came out since then, and closer to SC2k6 than HL2 was to SC2k5. If anything, Gordon's going to look BETTER in the 2k6 stats than he did in 2k5.
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ExplicitAriel | Posted 9/5/2006 7:03:58 PM | message detail

i agree with Draco for the most part. Phoenix looks cooler,

Debatable actually, but people severely underestimate how well known Gordon is, Half-Life is a -VERY- popular game, there's not a ton of people who don't know who he is, the same cannot be said for Phoenix. Even if I'm completely indifferent to Gordon, I'm voting him over someone I don't even recognize.

sounds cooler,

Uh... are you serious here? He yells "OBJECTION!" and "HOLD IT!" and you'd only know this if you're already a fan of PW, I don't see how this plays any role in this match, it's like saying Mario's "Momma-mia" is better than Links "HIYAAAAAH" so Mario is obviously going to win.

is a bit more recognizable,

AWW HELL NAW. You did not just go there... the boards are a very poor representation of the general public who come here and vote in the polls every day, I'd bet my wang that if I went around and asked 5,000 random people on the streets who Gordon Freeman and Phoenix Wright are, I'd get a much better reaction with GF.

and is from a Nintendo system.

So is Elf Bowling 1 & 2, it doesn't mean random Elf #1 is going to beat anybody in this contest. People seriously overrate lol nintendofaqs.

Phoenix is going to have more casual appeal. i mean, c'mon - PHOENIX WRIGHT!!!! or........ gordon freeman...... even Phoenix's name sounds cooler.

Except that casual gamers play Half-Life, they don't play Phoenix Wright.

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AmazingKirby | Posted 9/5/2006 7:06:44 PM | message detail

But how could someone like Gordon boost so much from a PC-game of all things? It's way too much, since no one has even boosted that much before. I mean how many people really own PCs? Not that many, right? Of course, because we're all posting from our cell phones! Therefore, Gordon is a lock to lose.

Oh, wait.
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ExplicitAriel | Posted 9/5/2006 7:06:51 PM | message detail

Nope. HLE1 came out since then, and closer to SC2k6 than HL2 was to SC2k5. If anything, Gordon's going to look BETTER in the 2k6 stats than he did in 2k5.

Not to mention it coming out for XBox since the last contest too.

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therealmnm | Posted 9/5/2006 7:10:32 PM | message detail

greatone10 | Posted 9/5/2006 7:11:54 PM | message detail

Gordon Freeman's boost was not so much the result of Half-Life 2, but the original game was modded to point where you could play these mods without ever knowing you are playing Half-Life. HL2 brought Gordon Freeman to the spotlight after years of playing second-fiddle to TERRORISTS WIN!
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Heroic Mario | Posted 9/5/2006 7:18:28 PM | message detail

Freeman has been working off of exactly one game all of these years -- Half-Life. That game was released back in 1998. He went years without getting any kind of game, and even then, Half-Life itself was never nearly as large as all of its future mods, particularly Counter-Strike. Considering how lowly he is, it's not a stretch at all to see him getting such a big boost when Half-Life 2 came around in 2004. It was a very hyped game, it got tons of high scores, and it sold extremely well.

The fact that Gordon Freeman was a big item again is enough to warrant him a boost. HL2 being out should have helped him tremendously. The fact that he put up such nice numbers against Leon Kennedy, who in turn happened to be rank really well, should be the first clue. Phoenix is not getting close to putting up those numbers on Leon. The only reason this match is getting debate is because one of the board's little favorites is up against the "Gordon Freeman Never Wins" drivel.

I'm not seeing this being close at all.

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MarkSmith | Posted 9/5/2006 7:23:58 PM | message detail

So then why did Snake do so much worse against Knuckles and Mega Man that year? Why do ANY rematch results change? Your arguments for why the noble nine is invincible are ridiculous.

He may have been a little weaker, but just because he was extrapolated below some non nners doesnt mean he'd have lost to them. Magus was the strongest non NNer 2 years running, and then he didnt even manage to beat knuckles.

The nn are consistent. Even though they may not always be extrapolated top 9, they simply just always win, whereas the top threats like magus, frog, kirby, etc have some really questionable losses.

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AmazingKirby | Posted 9/5/2006 7:26:04 PM | message detail

I'm not following the conversation, but Magus, Frog, and Kirby are the top threats?
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MarkSmith | Posted 9/5/2006 7:28:02 PM | message detail

they have been in the past according to the lol x-stats. Magus has been the top rated NNer 2 different years, including actually being rated ahead of some NNers certain years.

As we saw vs knux, it didnt mean anything.
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"The government big enough to give you everything you want is big enough to take everything you have"-Gerald Ford

therealmnm | Posted 9/5/2006 7:47:44 PM | message detail

Magus has been the top rated NNer 2 different years, including actually being rated ahead of some NNers certain years.

Not really. Magus was the highest rated non-NNer in 2k3 and that same value was used for two years due to a potential SFF match against Crono and people giving him the benefit of doubt. And seeing how we only had Luca Blight to work with that year, people took that matchup with a grain of salt. Sam Fisher was a warning sign, but we were more fascinated with Samus rising rather than him dropping.

But to stay on topic, one reason the Noble Nine look so well is because they are rarely given threats outside of each other. If Snake was given the strongest possible contestant under him possible each year, I'm sure he probably would have lost one of them by now, instead of everyone holding up the Nine with so much distinction. Bowser showed last year that there really isn't a separation. They just happen to be the 9 strongest contestants from what we've seen so far. I wouldn't truly call it a distinct group until Snake and Sonic survive the strongest possible opponents (Sonic gets that chance this year... still waiting on Snake).
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Draco1214 | Posted 9/5/2006 7:58:38 PM | message detail

Except that casual gamers play Half-Life, they don't play Phoenix Wright.

That is true, but the Half-Life games are leagues ahead of Gordon Freeman in strength. You could play through all of both HL and HL2 without knowing who Gordon Freeman is. Coupled with the fact that non-Blizzard PC gaming on this site is pathetic, and you've got a perfect explanation of why Gordon is such bad fodder and I'd wager that HL2 did nothing for him. If anything, I'd think interest in HL2 has waned since then even with the episodes out (the episodes have garnered a hell of a lot less media attention that HL2 did when it was first released) meaning that Gordon has likely decreased in strength.

but the original game was modded to point where you could play these mods without ever knowing you are playing Half-Life.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2476

Again, further proof of how pathetic PC gaming is on GameFAQs. Most of this site either hasn't played Counter-Strike, or played it and didn't like it.
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Yesmar | Posted 9/5/2006 8:09:40 PM | message detail

I guess I'm in the minority then. If I hadn't been following GameFAQs Character Battles, I wouldn't know who the hell Gordon Freeman is to this day. I've seen one friend play Half-Life all of 2 minutes. That's it. But then, I guess I underestimate how many people are into PC gaming. It's never been a big thing among me or any of my friends though.

Would you have heard of Phoenix Wright if it hadn't been for the GameFAQS message boards?

Again, further proof of how pathetic PC gaming is on GameFAQs. Most of this site either hasn't played Counter-Strike, or played it and didn't like it.

That's still 30% of the web site who's played some version of Counter-Strike; I would guess that that's more than the amount who have played Phoenix Wright. Not that Counter-Strike would help Gordon any, but it's not like Phoenix Wright has a massive playability rating through GameFAQS or anything.

Why would Phoenix Wright be any more popular than the King of All Cosmos other than the fact that his name is also the name of his game?

And why would Gordon's performance against Leon not be legitimate?
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Janus5000 | Posted 9/5/2006 8:13:06 PM | message detail

More people have never heard of Counter-Strike than still play it regularly?

TERRORISTS WIN
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Janus5000 | Posted 9/5/2006 8:14:09 PM | message detail

(oh, and my confidence in Freeman isn't at all damaged by that - I just found that kinda funny.)
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
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