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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 355

Phediuk | Posted 9/9/2006 1:33:04 PM | message detail
Don't forget about the PC version of RE4, either. >_>

It's coming out on the 30th.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/9/2006 2:40:54 PM | message detail
I don't know if this has been discussed yet, but does anyone else think that Zero's strength was so high in the last couple contests because he had his own series? The Megaman Zero series wasn't extremely popular or anything, but it did have Zero as the main character for 4 games. And the year the series ended (last year), Zero had his worst performance in any contest so far.

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Z1mZum won the Guru Contest. I picked Pokemon over Metroid, GTA over Warcraft, Halo over CV, Street Fighter over RE, and FF over Zelda.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/9/2006 3:37:55 PM | message detail
That is rather interesting to think about.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them.” - Vivi0198
Kaxon | Posted 9/9/2006 4:13:52 PM | message detail
Since I haven't mentioned it yet, the Oracle Challenge for this contest is up:

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30190686

The Oracle Challenge is probably the most skill-testing prediction contest on GameFAQs and also one of the biggest - last time we had 180 different participants, and 71 who came back to make predictions every single day. There's no better way for stats people in this topic to put their knowledge to use... prove your superior predicting abilities against the competition!
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therealmnm | Posted 9/9/2006 4:38:45 PM | message detail
I don't know if this has been discussed yet, but does anyone else think that Zero's strength was so high in the last couple contests because he had his own series? The Megaman Zero series wasn't extremely popular or anything, but it did have Zero as the main character for 4 games. And the year the series ended (last year), Zero had his worst performance in any contest so far.>

As big a Zero fan as I am, I haven't really gotten into the MMZ series. But if the Zero series did make up a significant part of his strength, then him being SFF'd by Mario was probably more likely, seeing how the series was exclusive to the Nintendo demographic on the GBA. I have no idea how popular the GBA games were here on GameFAQs. I'm sure they gave him a fair bit of strength though, seeing how the X series hasn't been prominent since the SNES days.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/9/2006 5:12:14 PM | message detail
I seriously doubt the MMZ series made up a significant part of his strength, but it probably gave him that extra push that made him a serious force.

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Z1mZum won the Guru Contest. I picked Pokemon over Metroid, GTA over Warcraft, Halo over CV, Street Fighter over RE, and FF over Zelda.
creativename | Posted 9/9/2006 5:19:19 PM | message detail
Someone mentioned the Prince of Persia being as strong as GoW Kratos was. I don't think PoP will be as strong as GoW Kratos.
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Big Bob | Posted 9/9/2006 5:27:05 PM | message detail
You know, I still think Phoenix has a legitimate chance at beating Gordon. Stranger things have happened before.

In the BSE contest, Ulti, as well as the rest of the analysis crew, had several very-well thought up reasons why GTA would beat Warcraft. Every concievable point to be made for Warcraft was rebutted with ease by them. And we all know what happened there.

Of course, if Phoenix wins, it'll be 10000000x the hilarity of GTA/Warcraft.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/9/2006 5:44:45 PM | message detail
In the BSE contest, Ulti, as well as the rest of the analysis crew, had several very-well thought up reasons why GTA would beat Warcraft. Every concievable point to be made for Warcraft was rebutted with ease by them. And we all know what happened there.

GTA flopped, and Warcraft had OMG ITS TUESDAY!!! factor going for it. A similar thing happening for GF vs. PW would involve a huge Gordon flop, AS WELL AS a surprise Phoenix Wright launch game for the Wii on the day of the match. Excuse me if I'm somewhat sceptical.
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therealmnm | Posted 9/9/2006 5:55:55 PM | message detail
Someone mentioned the Prince of Persia being as strong as GoW Kratos was. I don't think PoP will be as strong as GoW Kratos.

I don't see why he wouldn't be stronger. Kratos's one game may have been well received, but Kratos himself isn't named "God of War". Prince of Persia has a similar design to Kratos, has 3 multi-console releases this gen (it even reached out to the Gamecube fanbase) as opposed to Kratos who was exclusive to PS2, and the name "Prince of Persia" also should spark up some memories for people familiar with the old school games. Granted, all this shouldn't make him terribly strong, but I'd take him head to head over Kratos.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/9/2006 5:56:11 PM | message detail
Warcraft always had a case for it though, if for no other reason than its huge online fanbase. You cannot fathom to say the same for PW.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/9/2006 5:56:56 PM | message detail
In defense of Kratos, his game went on to sell like mad during the off-season after it hit $20. It went from selling about 600,000 copies to over 1.2 million within the past year.

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AmazingKirby | Posted 9/9/2006 5:59:56 PM | message detail
Wow, maybe I'll take Kratos over Ryu, then.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2006 6:02:00 PM | message detail
PoP may not match what Kratos is at now, but him getting on the level Kratos was in 2k5 isn't too much of a stretch...it's just figuring out what that level was in the first place that's iffy.

I'd never expect GoW Kratos to struggle with ToS Kratos, for instance.
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therealmnm | Posted 9/9/2006 6:02:04 PM | message detail
You know, this has been about the least debated contest prediction period that I've seen. Besides, HM's Ganondorf propoganda, there's been practically nothing going on in the stats topic. Vincent/Kerrigan by itself seems to have gotten more debate than anything we've seen this contest.

Is the contest losing its touch? I can say that I'm not caring nearly as much about this contest as I used to be...
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2006 6:05:36 PM | message detail
Meh, the bracket isn't that good, the upsets are few and far between...but as for YOUR level of interest, I remember you saying the same thing about the series contest and that ended up being the most popular contest ever.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/9/2006 6:05:38 PM | message detail
From HaRRicH Posted 9/9/2006 8:56:11 PM
Warcraft always had a case for it though, if for no other reason than its huge online fanbase. You cannot fathom to say the same for PW.

And we all know how you stat-heads treated people that were baking on WoW


TuRtLe
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/9/2006 6:07:28 PM | message detail
And we all know how you stat-heads treated people that were baking on WoW

It at least had 6 million users.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/9/2006 6:08:02 PM | message detail
PoP wasn't goin' to touch Kratos anyway. Where Kratos lands this year could be interesting...

...and, when considering the boosts Sora and Auron will be getting, I don't think we'll ever truly know what happened exactly in Sora's four-pack last year.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Heroic Mario | Posted 9/9/2006 6:08:52 PM | message detail
The fact that there is a female side of the bracket puts something of a damper on things, I'd imagine. I'm sure there is going to be many things this contest that are definitely unexpected, but for pre-contest arguing, there probably shouldn't be too much.

I noticed that there are many matches that are just so evenly split and have such a good case for either one that it's not worth arguing about. This contest should be just as entertaining, if not moreso, than the other contests before it. Lots of matches we're set on being not worth arguing may just end up being the ones that have the complete opposite result of expectations.

So is this part of it boring? Definitely. Will the contest be? I don't think so. We're going to start the contest off with a 92% blowout, baby!

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HaRRicH | Posted 9/9/2006 6:09:53 PM | message detail
And we all know how you stat-heads treated people that were baking on WoW

I did say that if WoW would beat GTA, I would take it to win the bracket. I just didn't think it was going to rally that many...

...heh, and I was wrong on both counts, but I never said it simply wouldn't happen.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2006 6:10:34 PM | message detail
I respect the majority of those that picked WC over GTA about as much as I respect the majority that picked Master Hand over Kuja. Instead of being right that your pick would show surprising or unprecedented strength, both entries ended up being fodder and you happened to pick the slightly less pathetic entrant.

You likely get more or less the exact same amount of people picking WC in a match against, say, Resident Evil. Except then it gets blown out to smithereens.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2006 6:12:52 PM | message detail
PoP wasn't goin' to touch Kratos anyway.

Yay for flawed reasoning.

Not that I haven't heard it all before, but this is an example of GoW overestimation and PoP underestimation. You'd think GTA would have taught you not to treat the Top Ten List and GotY polls as a be-all end-all of things...
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therealmnm | Posted 9/9/2006 6:20:14 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter beat me to it. Warcraft didn't impress as much as GTA disappointed. And nothing at all pointed to it doing that badly. Either the GotY polls are absolutely useless when it comes to one-on-one matches, or GTA lost all of its strength when being considered as a series. But all Warcraft proved was that it indeed had the rallying capability to pull out a close victory.

As for this contest, I didn't say it would be boring in itself. I was just saying that the prediction period seems kinda dead. As far as the bracket is concerned, and taking potential toss-ups and upsets into play, this is looking to be the best contest since the Games contest. It just doesn't feel like it.
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AmazingKirby | Posted 9/9/2006 6:26:13 PM | message detail
We all aready know Kratos's strength anyway. 40% on Sora? That's near-elite!
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/9/2006 6:55:00 PM | message detail
Someone mentioned the Prince of Persia being as strong as GoW Kratos was. I don't think PoP will be as strong as GoW Kratos

I don't see why not. All three PoP games are on the Greatest Hits collection I believe.
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Who Cares? | Posted 9/9/2006 6:58:36 PM | message detail
As for this contest, I didn't say it would be boring in itself. I was just saying that the prediction period seems kinda dead. As far as the bracket is concerned, and taking potential toss-ups and upsets into play, this is looking to be the best contest since the Games contest. It just doesn't feel like it.

This prediction period has been quiet. Hell Phoenix/Gordon has somehow gotten more attention than Zelda/Aeris (and has more Phoenix>Gordon takers tha Aeris>Zelda to boot)

For me, it's like Ceej was on his way to making a great bracket and stopped halfway thru deciding this was good enough. And it doesn't even need a major overhaul either, just switch a few chracters and setups here & there & it looks much better.
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/9/2006 6:59:11 PM | message detail
Is the contest losing its touch? I can say that I'm not caring nearly as much about this contest as I used to be...

I don't see how. Zero/Kirby/Luigi fourpack? Ganondorf/Vincent? Tifa/Aeris/Zelda? Crono/Sonic? The Battle Royale? Dante/Yoshi? PW/Gordan? Crono/Samus?

All quite debatable. This has potential for a great contest I'd say.
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creativename | Posted 9/9/2006 7:00:33 PM | message detail
And we all know how you stat-heads treated people that were baking on WoW

Now we all know this was a very dumb thing to say.


I respect the majority of those that picked WC over GTA about as much as I respect the majority that picked Master Hand over Kuja.

This I don't think is fair though. A lot more people around here picked Warcraft than Master Hand. Also Warcraft made a lot more sense - we had plenty of reasons to fully expect GTA to flop. Kuja's flopping was more shocking. Warcraft winning was hardly shocking at all, it was a fairly popular pick as far as upsets go. Over 45% Oracle average and 38 vs. 95 BOP picks. A clear upset, but nothing like MH/Kuja among board regulars.

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creativename | Posted 9/9/2006 7:02:58 PM | message detail
And nothing at all pointed to it doing that badly.

What makes you say this...? I recall saying or discussing that Final Fantasy might be able to get 80% on GTA prior to the contest. As I said, we had plenty of reasons to think GTA was weak.
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creativename | Posted 9/9/2006 7:04:55 PM | message detail
I don't see why not. All three PoP games are on the Greatest Hits collection I believe.

I didn't say he couldn't be stronger, just that I wouldn't expect him to be.

Someone made a point about his games being named after him, which is a good point. But I don't think his character appeal is like Kratos'.
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/9/2006 7:08:36 PM | message detail
Character appeal huh....care to elaborate? Sure there two entirely different characters. Kratos is more of a brute force, slice n dice, rip your ass in half type of man. While PoP is athletic, agile, crafty, and has to use his head a lot, however can also do quite well in combat.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2006 7:12:16 PM | message detail
Warcraft winning was a popular pick because it was Blizzard. That's it. GTA flopping wasn't even taken into account by the vast majority of people. I have no intentions of praising the same logic that lead to Kerrigan > Vincent six months beforehand.

And Kuja flopping was obvious, it just depends on who you ask. I had MH > Kuja in my bracket from day one, and I never even gave it a second though. I'll never fathom why people thought he'd be strong, but maybe that's just me...
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/9/2006 7:14:08 PM | message detail
Well we didn't have much of a reason to doubt FF9 at the time. Vivi doesn't exactly suck or anything.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
creativename | Posted 9/9/2006 7:17:27 PM | message detail
Warcraft winning was a popular pick because it was Blizzard. That's it. GTA flopping wasn't even taken into account by the vast majority of people. I have no intentions of praising the same logic that lead to Kerrigan > Vincent six months beforehand.

Warcraft is Warcraft. It's a fairly popular series.

And we have a lot of reasons to little to no faith in GTA.

And comparing it to Vincent/Kerrigan is pure absurdity. Utter absurdity.
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/9/2006 7:18:49 PM | message detail
The fact that Vincent/Kerrigan got discussion was insane.
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I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/9/2006 7:21:17 PM | message detail
Vincent/Kerrigan is just another match that only made me feel nervous about it because B8 decided to over-analyze it. GTA/Warcraft is one of those matches that wasn't analyzed quite enough.

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Z1mZum won the Guru Contest. I picked Pokemon over Metroid, GTA over Warcraft, Halo over CV, Street Fighter over RE, and FF over Zelda.
therealmnm | Posted 9/9/2006 7:21:46 PM | message detail
My main reason for taking Kuja was a little too much faith in the Square fanbase. Until then, every character from a FF game from VII and after carried at least midcard strength. Cloud was the 2nd most popular character on this site. As a villain, Sephiroth was the 3rd most popular character. Squall was pretty strong. Auron was pretty strong. Vivi splashed on the scene and ended up being pretty strong. Even Aeris and Yuna, who I didn't see any appeal to, ended up having some strength.

I figured the Squaresoft fanbase would at least carry Kuja past "a ****ing HAND". =P Now after Dante/Terra and Kirby/Cecil as well, we know better now.
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therealmnm | Posted 9/9/2006 7:24:54 PM | message detail
Warcraft is Warcraft. It's a fairly popular series.

And we have a lot of reasons to little to no faith in GTA.


A fairly popular series that still ended up looking pathetic. It's not like Warcraft exactly proved it had strength or anything.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/9/2006 7:35:54 PM | message detail
Anyone think MC/Sub deserves even a little bit of discussion?
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therealmnm | Posted 9/9/2006 7:42:11 PM | message detail
Well of course. Sub-Zero has a great chance of winning that matchup. Even if Mortal Kombat isn't as popular as it used to be, there are still plenty of people on GameFAQs who don't care for Halo and Master Chief at all. Even liking Mortal Kombat just a little bit back in the day would be enough incentive for taking Sub-Zero in a matchup against Master Chief. Sub-Zero is going to get at least 46% against MC. We're probably going to see a barnburner, and could even see Sub-Zero safely dispatch MC without even a problem.
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therealmnm | Posted 9/9/2006 7:42:58 PM | message detail
*enough incentive to vote for Sub-Zero that is...
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/9/2006 7:43:04 PM | message detail
I've been considering taking Sub-Zero over MC for awhile now actually..
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/9/2006 7:46:22 PM | message detail
I don't remember if I had a bracket for the villain contest, but if I was here, I could've told you Kuja was going to bomb.

And I respect the "WHAT THE HELL R U THINKIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GTA IS TEH UBAR POWER HOUSEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!" people as much as I respect the Samus > Mario people.


TuRtLe
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lol Z1mZum | BSE Contest final score: 61 pts
Nominate Carmen Sandiego for Character Battle V
creativename | Posted 9/9/2006 7:46:45 PM | message detail
A fairly popular series that still ended up looking pathetic. It's not like Warcraft exactly proved it had strength or anything.

So?

And it wasn't pathetic anyway, just average.


And I think Sub-Zero>MC is a decent pick. I wouldn't take it, but my first reaction to the match on the bracket was hesitation. I was tempted to go with Sub-Zero for a bit. In the end I decided Sub-Zero was more risky than my first impression, but it wouldn't take a miracle for him to win.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/9/2006 7:47:08 PM | message detail
Hey creative, less arguing about Warcraft and more archiving of those missing 2002 match pics!

~*ST*~
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creativename | Posted 9/9/2006 7:50:29 PM | message detail
Were they posted or something?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/9/2006 7:52:40 PM | message detail
I'd consider the upset more if MK was just equal to SF's popularity on this site.
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shadow8021 | Posted 9/9/2006 7:53:16 PM | message detail
Sonic DESERVES to beat Crono.
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cyko | Posted 9/9/2006 7:53:20 PM | message detail
Vincent > Ganondorf > Sonic

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