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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 354

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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/4/2006 10:10:51 AM | message detail
It's probably pre-SC2K5.

Meh, I'll leave it.
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ExplicitAriel | Posted 9/4/2006 2:00:10 PM | message detail
It's not really the stupidest thing I've ever seen, I was obviously being overdramatic. Any post by Tequilla, Tai, or Smurf in these topics all beat it out, but let's move on!

Link, Cloud, Seph. Assume they're the final three in the BR, in a Cloud/Seph poll, I'm definitely taking Cloud, no doubts about it. 56-44 in 2K4 is gonna be pretty damn hard for Seph to swing in his favor. Now let's take about KH2. Everyone always says it's the role in the game that matters, not just appearing in it. As I've never been a real fan of KHF, I'd have to agree on role size mattering in it more than anything else, not to say this is the cause of '03, because I sincerely doubt it. So now you have to say, who had the best damn role in KHII out of any cameo appearances, and I think you definitely have to give that to Seph, as it could have only made more fans out of him, or boosted him above Cloud in some peoples minds. I'll still take Cloud in a head to head match-up with very little concern, probably none, but I think it'd definitely be closer than a 56-44 Ulti blowout. The whole point obviously being that Seph has less ground to gain on Cloud in a three-way poll, call it Hero SFF if you want, I personally don't because it just sounds corny, but I have to believe that Link will siphon a significantly larger amount of votes from Cloud than Seph... I don't really have any concrete reasoning for this it's just a feeling really. It might bite me in the ass, but then again if I have Ganon winning the whole male side, as long as the rest of my bracket doesn't turn out to be trash, it won't matter much. I know this is nothing new, but eh, felt like saying my piece on it. I'm leaning towards Seph, just because I can't see everything working the way the x-stats say they should, not to say I'm making the pick to just pick against them either, that would just be stupid.

Either way, it's gonna be close... and I don't put much of anything into those favorite FF7 character polls, simply because it's pretty apparent Cloud is already favored among the FF7 crowd, I don't think the same can be true when you throw Nintendo's hottest franchise into the mix.

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Haste_2 | Posted 9/4/2006 2:05:17 PM | message detail
While your point may be valid, it is far from the stupidest thing said in these topics. Honestly, it's nowhere near being close <_<

Last year having Ness over Carl Johnson was supposed to be completely idiotic. :P

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therealmnm | Posted 9/4/2006 2:18:56 PM | message detail
Oh, Mario is primed to be upset early in the Battle Royal, but the right contestants probably won't make it. If say Sonic and Snake could make it instead of Samus/Crono, I'd pick Mario to be booted first!

Oh yes! Sonic and Snake fans unite!
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AmazingKirby | Posted 9/4/2006 2:20:46 PM | message detail
Yeah, I have Samus < Mario < Sonic < Seph < Cloud < Link. >_>
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Heroic Mario | Posted 9/4/2006 3:18:02 PM | message detail
Man, you guys went all day without notable discussion?

Lame!!

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ExplicitAriel | Posted 9/4/2006 4:50:57 PM | message detail
Your mom is lame. Oh snap.

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charmander6000 | Posted 9/4/2006 5:46:21 PM | message detail
This topic isn't dead yet.

I can't believe the contest is starting in only 8 days.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
FastFalcon05 | Posted 9/4/2006 5:57:20 PM | message detail
I haven't been reading the past two topics, but just to throw something, if not new, then at least rehashed onto the Vincent/Ganon discussion; would anyone really consider taking Squall over either Bowser or Ganon, let alone Sonic? Just from what I've picked up, it seems people have been ignoring just how close Vincent and Squall are, or at least were. The comparison is (almost) still valid currently. Squall has had the very well received Kingdom Hearts II this year, while Vincent has had Advent Children last year and Dirge of Cerberus currently. DoC, despite its tepid reviews, is still very fresh, and Vincent's obviously more important to DoC than Squall to KH. Still though, depending on what sort of boost you think Vincent's going to get, he's still close to Squall, who has also had reason to increase.

If the two were to rematch, what's the highest percentage you can give to Vincent, and then, based off that, is there still room to take Vincent over Ganon or Bowser?
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2006 6:08:20 PM | message detail
As far as I'm concerned Ganon is safely below Bowser until proven otherwise, and Vincent/Squall are very close even now -- I've flip-flopped a bit concerning who will be the stronger of the two. I'd take Squall over Ganon, for the record.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/4/2006 6:39:07 PM | message detail
Can anyone figure out a 2005 Vincent value that makes the most sense?
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/4/2006 6:39:35 PM | message detail
Squall vs. Vincent would still be a tough match. I think Squall would do better than he did last contest, but I'm not sure if it would be enough to win.

As far as I'm concerned Ganon is safely below Bowser until proven otherwise,

And how could it be proven? If they fight the same opponent, you'll just say "lol Ganon overperformance", and if Ganon beats Bowser you'll just say "lol Zelda rSFF".
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2006 6:42:05 PM | message detail
Both Bowser and Ganon overperformed on Sephy, and they have yet to fight, so you have no right to state what I would think of such an outcome, especially given no specifics on it whatsoever.

I'm not having this conversation with you again.
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Commit it to memory.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/4/2006 6:44:14 PM | message detail
Ganondorf through Diablo actually does put him a little bit below Bowser.
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 9/4/2006 6:52:42 PM | message detail
Holy crap, I figured we got 354 to 500 by now....in other news, some good time has passed and I'm still intriqued by Freeman/PW. It has a chance to be one of the best matches of Round 1.
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Master Moltar | Posted 9/4/2006 6:52:44 PM | message detail
Vincent
Squall
Dante
Kerrigan
Terra

Which of these characters end up higher than their 2005 numbers, and which one's lower? Or do they stay the same?

I'd say Kerrigan stays about the same, Terra falls to near Kerrigan's level (as Zelda will demolish her), Dante falls a little, Squall falls a little (due to an underperformance against Snake), and Vincent stays about the same.

Yay for exposed divisions!
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Moltar Status: Bracket filled and ready to go.
2006 is the year of Samus Aran
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/4/2006 6:54:18 PM | message detail
Both Bowser and Ganon overperformed on Sephy, and they have yet to fight, so you have no right to state what I would think of such an outcome, especially given no specifics on it whatsoever.

I'm not having this conversation with you again.


Sorry. It just seems like some people around here would believe Bowser > Ganon no matter what the evidence says. It's not impossible for Bowser to be stronger than Ganon, especially after NSMB and before TP.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2006 6:55:40 PM | message detail
I'd say Kerrigan stays about the same, Terra falls to near Kerrigan's level (as Zelda will demolish her)

This'll be hard, seeing as how they're facing each other in the first round.
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Master Moltar | Posted 9/4/2006 6:56:50 PM | message detail
I mean Terra/Kerrigan will be somewhat close, and then Zelda destroys Terra putting them close in the stats.
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Moltar Status: Bracket filled and ready to go.
2006 is the year of Samus Aran
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2006 6:57:50 PM | message detail
It'd be very wishful thinking if I were to think Ganon doesn't beat Bowser after TP...it won't really matter after his Vincent match, though if Vinnie pulls off the win we'll finally have a concrete value on Ganondorf for the first time ever.

Then he gets an immense boost for 2k7. YAY!
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SowlLikesMen | Posted 9/4/2006 8:19:25 PM | message detail
It has a chance to be one of the best matches of Round 1.

If you're into universe explosion maybe... aside from that, not so much. The board will go crazy when PW pulls ahead at first, and then it'll become "NOOOOOOOOOOO THE UNIVERSE, THE UNIVERRRRRRRRRRRSE!!!!"

Vincent
Squall
Dante
Kerrigan
Terra

Which of these characters end up higher than their 2005 numbers, and which one's lower? Or do they stay the same?


As long as we're talking base link, Vincent and Dante go up, Squall stays pretty stagnant, and anything can happen with Kerrigan and Terra, once you're that low random variation can just toss you around.

Also, we totally need that bracket put up on SC2K5.com (screw the new name!), my main is in purg and I don't enjoy switching usernames every time I want to glance at the bracket.
charmander6000 | Posted 9/4/2006 8:21:34 PM | message detail
I mean Terra/Kerrigan will be somewhat close, and then Zelda destroys Terra putting them close in the stats.

If Terra wins, let's say 55/45 then how would Zelda destroying Terra make the match any closer.
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Haste_2 | Posted 9/4/2006 8:26:21 PM | message detail
Well, the more Terra gets blown out the closer Terra and Kerrigan will be arithmetic-wise. Either that or MM means that Terra being blown out worse will result in Terra 2K6 being closer to Kerrigan 2K5.

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SowlLikesMen | Posted 9/4/2006 8:28:38 PM | message detail
Manny Calavera 55.06% 48,889
Yuri 44.94% 39,904
TOTAL VOTES 88,793

They're 1.09% away in the x-stats.

Crono 51.35% 47,359
Mega Man 48.65% 44,861
TOTAL VOTES 92,219
'
They're .99% away in the x-stats. Basically even if it's a 55-45 affair, if they're both made weak enough in the x-stats, they will be virtually the same value.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/5/2006 1:06:04 AM | message detail
Phoenix FTW!

~*ST*~
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Kaxon | Posted 9/5/2006 2:38:52 AM | message detail
I haven't been reading the past two topics, but just to throw something, if not new, then at least rehashed onto the Vincent/Ganon discussion; would anyone really consider taking Squall over either Bowser or Ganon, let alone Sonic? Just from what I've picked up, it seems people have been ignoring just how close Vincent and Squall are, or at least were. The comparison is (almost) still valid currently. Squall has had the very well received Kingdom Hearts II this year, while Vincent has had Advent Children last year and Dirge of Cerberus currently. DoC, despite its tepid reviews, is still very fresh, and Vincent's obviously more important to DoC than Squall to KH. Still though, depending on what sort of boost you think Vincent's going to get, he's still close to Squall, who has also had reason to increase.

If the two were to rematch, what's the highest percentage you can give to Vincent, and then, based off that, is there still room to take Vincent over Ganon or Bowser?


Well, personally I'd take Squall over both Bowser and Ganon as well, so there's plenty of room to take Vincent over them. Squall vs Bowser would be a great match in my opinion. I wouldn't take any of them over Sonic, although I could see Vincent having a shot (and he's the only one I could see doing it out of those four).
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/5/2006 5:44:19 AM | message detail
I haven't been reading the past two topics, but just to throw something, if not new, then at least rehashed onto the Vincent/Ganon discussion; would anyone really consider taking Squall over either Bowser or Ganon, let alone Sonic? Just from what I've picked up, it seems people have been ignoring just how close Vincent and Squall are, or at least were. The comparison is (almost) still valid currently. Squall has had the very well received Kingdom Hearts II this year, while Vincent has had Advent Children last year and Dirge of Cerberus currently. DoC, despite its tepid reviews, is still very fresh, and Vincent's obviously more important to DoC than Squall to KH. Still though, depending on what sort of boost you think Vincent's going to get, he's still close to Squall, who has also had reason to increase.

I know, I'm surprised that no one is really taking Squall > Snake, especially after many people in this topic would easily take Vincent > Snake.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
HaRRicH | Posted 9/5/2006 6:19:31 AM | message detail
BUT GUYS VINCENT > SQUALL FOREVER AND WE ALL KNOW SOLID SFF'S FF CHARACTERS
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Kaxon | Posted 9/5/2006 6:23:49 AM | message detail
Err... well, I honestly do think Snake would probably SFF Squall again. But I'd take Snake over any non-noble niner, and I do think he'll be a little stronger this year than he was last year.
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Heroic CaptianPlanet | Posted 9/5/2006 8:03:40 AM | message detail
Oh yes! Sonic and Snake fans unite!

I'll drink to that!
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TheCruelAngel | Posted 9/5/2006 8:10:42 AM | message detail
I know, I'm surprised that no one is really taking Squall > Snake

I am with one of my brackets. <_<
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ShadowOwns | Posted 9/5/2006 8:15:56 AM | message detail
Oh yes! Sonic and Snake fans unite!

*drinks to this as well*
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Haste_2 | Posted 9/5/2006 9:31:07 AM | message detail
My head says:
The Boss > Celes
Vincent > Ganondorf

My gut says:
Celes > The Boss
Ganondorf > Vincent

So, I've decided to go with my head for this account, while on my original account I'm going with my gut...let's see which one ends up right, if they don't tie.

Oh, and I'd take Ganondorf over Vincent of last with year about 53%...reasoning being Vincent's worth more like 33% on BL rather than 35.5% and that Ganondorf is worth 35% on BL. That means Vincent has 3% to overcome, and I really don't think the Wii is going to bail Ganondorf out. I think Advent Children and FF7's resulting demand, (to a lesser extent) KH2, and Dirge of Cerberus could all be put to Vincent's advantage. 3% shouldn't be hard to overcome, as Vincent hasn't had anything since a no-show in KH1. What I'm afraid of, though, is that I've been underrating Ganondorf in the first place, and that he's actually stronger than Bowser. Few people seem to think Ganondorf is as strong or stronger than Bowser, though...

Oh, and as for Squall vs. Bowser...maybe it could be a good match this year, but last year I would've more likely taken Kirby to beat Squall (55/45 isn't hard to overcome with The Boost!).

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charmander6000 | Posted 9/5/2006 11:39:52 AM | message detail
I think Ganondorf is a little overrated from last year after seeing everything Magus' 4-pack releated take a hard dive, but then again it would be hard to prove this year.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
ExplicitAriel | Posted 9/5/2006 11:40:56 AM | message detail
If anything Ganon is severely underrated... I see no reason to think he's overrated, unless you really want to think he's the same strength that he was in 2003, except that doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

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charmander6000 | Posted 9/5/2006 11:43:01 AM | message detail
It's more of a gut feeling, plus I want this topic to be filled before 355 is.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
ExplicitAriel | Posted 9/5/2006 11:54:24 AM | message detail
Yeah, I really hate how that happens every once in a while with the new topic taking off before this one closes, that's why they shouldn't go up until like 450, but I digress.

Anyway, looking at Nintendo characters in '03 and now looking at them, they've all increased, except for guess who? Yep, Ganon. Hell he's gone down, no chance in hell am I going to believe that. Sure he was overrated in '03, but if you look at Magus, he's only 3% lower in '05 than he was in '05. It's not like he just completely fell off the map or something, people are always overrating the drop in popularity he had. So even if Ganon is overrated by 3% or so in '03, I still think he's stronger than the '05 stats show. Mario's gone up 6.5%, Link 4.5%, Bowser 6.5%, Zelda 3.5%, Luigi 6% and so on, I don't think I need to add overkill. Yoshi was left out because I don't think anyone trusts his '05 stats. And there's plenty of reason for Ganon to be underrated, potential Ganon/Samus SFF (I'm on the fence personally), and Samus being far underrated in the x-stats. Do you guys really think Samus wasn't indirectly stronger than Mario in '04? Sure you have potential Mario underperformance thanks to Crono, but I don't think it accounts for 5%, and I'll be damned if Mario doesn't do the same exact thing to Samus in '04. Hell even if you just give her, her '04 number in '05 you're underrating her because you're acting like she's the only one who doesn't get the Nintendo boost of '05, it's absolutely ridiculous for her to get weaker from '04 to '05, and I honestly don't know how a single person buys it.

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Heroic CaptianPlanet | Posted 9/5/2006 12:26:55 PM | message detail
he's only 3% lower in '05 than he was in '05

SNAKE! YOU CREATED A TIME PARADOX!
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red sox 777 | Posted 9/5/2006 12:42:36 PM | message detail
EC, I haven't heard a single person besides myself who has claimed that Samus dropped. Honestly, we have no reliable 2k5 numbers for her, and so I can't say with confidence whether she rose or fell. The fact that Nintendo (mostly Mario) boosted in 2k5 is not proof that Samus boosted, because characters in as broad a fanbase as Nintendo do not have to move together, and I think Samus's fanbase is somewhat different that the rest of Nintendo. My reason for thinking she might have dropped against elites (I think she'd do just as well as before against weaker characters.) is that she was massively SFF'd by Mario after resisting it pretty well in 2003 against Link. Most people seem to agree that Link would SFF her much harder now. Given the huge overlap of fanbases of all elite characters, I think this, along with Samus's poor vote totals compared to previous years, are signs that she might do worse now against other Noble Niners as well as Nintendo characters- namely Crono and Megaman.

As for Ganon, I do believe in Samus/Ganon SFF. Ganon may be stronger now than his 2003 value through Magus. And he would easily defeat Magus in a rematch now. But he needs to defeat Magus by a large margin to beat Vincent. Last year, Vincent was projected to score over 55% on Magus. Any possible overrating of the Devil Division due to AC puts Vincent even further above Magus, and any boost by Magus (Crono did boost between 2003 and 2005, after all.) makes Vincent look even better. And since then, Vincent's had KH2, AC, and DoC to help him. If we put Vincent at say, 58% on Magus now, the boost Ganondorf would need to win would be well in excess of that of either Link or Zelda. Further, if you believe the least squares calculations, the vast majority of Link's boost was between 2k3 and 2k4, and Ganon only scored 57% on Alucard in 2k4, putting him well below his 2k3 value through Magus.

Vincent is projected in 2k5 to score over 54% on Knuckles, and it turns out Knuckles and Ganon have another common opponent besides Magus: Yuna.

Knux got 55.32% on Yuna back in 2k3.
Ganon got 61.2% on Yuna in 2k5.

That would project Ganon to get around 57% on Knuckles in 2k5, whereas Vincent would get around 54.5% through Squall on Knuckles. However, 2003 was Sonic Team's worst year, and Knuckles is much stronger now. If we are to believe the x-stats:

Knuckles (2k3) has a strength of 26.47 against Base Link.
Knuckles (2k5) has a strength of 32.49 against Base Link.

Knuckles 40.74% 35,341
Knuckles 59.26% 51,416
TOTAL VOTES 86,757

Knuckles wins with 59.26% of the vote!
A 16,075 vote margin of victory.

That would predict a very easy victory for Vincent. Now, I don't believe Knuckles has boosted that much, and Yuna might have boosted a bit from FFX-2, but still. This line of reasoning indicates Vincent has the advantage unless Nintendo decides to release TP in September.

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shadow8021 | Posted 9/5/2006 12:49:04 PM | message detail
lol X-stats
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/5/2006 1:14:39 PM | message detail
Exactly.

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ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/5/2006 1:16:29 PM | message detail
omg almost 500
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/5/2006 1:17:35 PM | message detail
So even if Ganon is overrated by 3% or so in '03, I still think he's stronger than the '05 stats show. Mario's gone up 6.5%, Link 4.5%, Bowser 6.5%, Zelda 3.5%, Luigi 6% and so on, I don't think I need to add overkill.

And don't forget that Zelda went up even more than that, cuz she got an OoT picture against Snake and OoT's not very popular. >_>

The fact that Nintendo (mostly Mario) boosted in 2k5 is not proof that Samus boosted, because characters in as broad a fanbase as Nintendo do not have to move together, and I think Samus's fanbase is somewhat different that the rest of Nintendo

Kirby, DK, Link, Zelda, and posssibly Ganon all boosted as well. If Samus didn't boost, that means that every Nintendo character but Samus boosted, which seems a little unlikely to me.

Given the huge overlap of fanbases of all elite characters, I think this, along with Samus's poor vote totals compared to previous years, are signs that she might do worse now against other Noble Niners as well as Nintendo characters- namely Crono and Megaman.

1. She held up well enough against Cloud.

2. Crono gets Nintendo SFF on nothing. He couldn't even SFF Mega Man.

Now, I don't believe Knuckles has boosted that much, and Yuna might have boosted a bit from FFX-2, but still.

I'll eat my hat if Yuna didn't boost at least as much from FFX-2 as Dante did from DMC2. FFX-2 was far better received and sold far better than DMC2, and Yuna had a relatively more important role than she did in FFX.

On another related topic, I'd say that Vincent's DoC boost will be smaller than Yuna's FFX-2 boost, and by a substantial margin. DoC's GameFAQs presence has been quite unimpressive compared to what FFX-2's was.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Heroic CaptianPlanet | Posted 9/5/2006 1:37:01 PM | message detail
I don't believe in Samus/Ganon SFF. She can't SFF a thing, for one.
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wavedash101 | Posted 9/5/2006 1:38:03 PM | message detail
To 500
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/5/2006 1:40:27 PM | message detail
I don't believe in Samus/Ganon SFF. She can't SFF a thing, for one.

Samus has had, what, four matches with Nintendo characters? The only true failure of those was the match against Mario. She certainly withstood SFF against Link far better than Mega Man did.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/5/2006 1:43:22 PM | message detail
Do we really know that for sure?
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ExplicitAriel | Posted 9/5/2006 1:44:51 PM | message detail
Yes.
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Aprosenf | Posted 9/5/2006 1:45:55 PM | message detail
SMAUS > CORNO
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ExplicitAriel | Posted 9/5/2006 1:45:59 PM | message detail
Ganon > Sonic

P.S.

Kairi sucks.

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