GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 353
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| therealmnm | Posted 8/31/2006 10:30:17 PM | message detail |
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but I fail to see why Tifa would be more popular Go over my list again if you missed it. As far as those things you listed about Tifa, I'm pretty sure I've seen Ulti or someone else rip into Aeris's personality just as well. (This guy reminds me of my first! I'm going to attach myself to him!) --- Vote for Carmen Sandiego in SC2k6 Currently playing: NOTHING! lol real-world work |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/31/2006 10:31:48 PM | message detail |
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AFAIK, Tifa > Aeris was accepted when Tifa got a better ranking in the stats than Aeris did. And a basic rule of analysis is that you want to trust the logic of the person who predicted most accurately. HM's Mega Man vs. Tidus analysis has something to say about that. Oh, for the MC vs. Crono performance comparison, I was using unadjusted 2K4 Master Chief. Unadjusted MC was overrated by Snake/Frog but underrated by Link/Mega Man. In any event MC's 2K4 value isn't overly reliable, which also means it might not be a great way to support an overperformance on Crono the next year (especially since Halo 2 came out in between). Adjusting by Frog 2k5 is much more reasonable, IMO. Doing that makes an overperformance somewhat more likely. --- Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent. |
| creativename | Posted 8/31/2006 10:34:04 PM | message detail |
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as someone who nailed Master Chief last contest, I can say that I did so based on his antivotes. This makes me trust your logic more, but there is no doubt that massive doubt should remain about this hypothesis. I don't think you can even question the fact that antivoting exists when you look at some of the boosts certain characters are getting. It can easily be questioned. As I said, Sword Factor is equally as legitimate going by the evidence as Fluky factor. Nintendo boost or not, DK doesn't go from a whooping at Vivi's hands to an Ulti-style blowout over him. Something odd might've happened with DK, and it is some evidence in favor of anti-votes. But it's not wholly convincing at all. That's a complex issue anyway and seemingly more at the foot of DK; his boost was very much in line with other Nintendo characters if you go by his 2K3 value. But that would mean him and Vivi might've been underrated in 2K4 due to SFF. But then that would make Vivi's drop in 2K5 less sensible. Overall, it's a very complex situation and you could go any of many ways with it. By no means is DK overperforming due to MC anti-votes the only explanation, at all. There is some circumstantial evidence in favor of MC being fluky, but just as much for Sword Factor. Belief in this hypothesis mainly seems to be an example of a self-fulfilling bandwagon effect backed by circumstantial, but not convincing, evidence. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/31/2006 10:37:16 PM | message detail |
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Did DK beat Vivi or did Vivi beat DK? >.> OI can't remember --- Put 3 CDs, a blender, two forks, and an action figure in the microwave with your GBA SP. Turn it on defrost for ten minutes, and when the timer reads five, spray it with the hose. ~ Pyrrian |
| WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/31/2006 10:37:29 PM | message detail |
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Damn Chiefy-poo and his inconsistency! --- WigFan267 (Now with 86% less Gum and 25% less wigs) : Owned by Z1mmy Since 1987 Happily married to Alanna82 on VDay 2005 |
| creativename | Posted 8/31/2006 10:39:13 PM | message detail |
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HM, I'm with those who think that if you have Ganon beating Sonic, you might as well have him win the male bracket. IMO there's just not much wiggle space for him to fall in between beating Sonic, and losing to Crono/Mega Man. If Ganon does win the male bracket though, I think you'll hear more serious "GAH ZeldaFAQs!" whining than ever before. In fact, I see it more as people being legitimately pissed off than whining. It would get pretty bad I think... --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| creativename | Posted 8/31/2006 10:40:09 PM | message detail |
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Vivi beat DK with 56.47% --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/31/2006 10:42:14 PM | message detail |
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Thanks, creative. And I will be legitimately pissed off with my "lol ZeldaFAQs" complaints if Ganon wins the male bracket. (I still hope I get credit for being the first one to complain about ZeldaFAQs. >.>) --- Put 3 CDs, a blender, two forks, and an action figure in the microwave with your GBA SP. Turn it on defrost for ten minutes, and when the timer reads five, spray it with the hose. ~ Pyrrian |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 8/31/2006 10:43:27 PM | message detail |
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Well, if Sephiroth can get so damn strong without even being playable,
I shudder to think at Ganon's potential. An awesome roll in Twilight
Princess and a playable return in Brawl could be all he needs to turn
into something truly scary. --- Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... Part of your woooorld! |
| creativename | Posted 8/31/2006 10:43:33 PM | message detail |
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Damn Chiefy-poo and his inconsistency! I'd lean more towards general complexity/volatility. There is some reason to believe MC is more systematically inconsistent than other characters, but really, it's not supported as much as people seem to think. I doubt perceptions will change though. Once a character gets stuck with a label, it doesn't tend to change. Almost like politics actually. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/31/2006 10:43:51 PM | message detail |
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Eh, I'd still have Ganon out to Crono, if I had him over Sonic. --- WigFan267 (Now with 86% less Gum and 25% less wigs) : Owned by Z1mmy Since 1987 Happily married to Alanna82 on VDay 2005 |
| WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/31/2006 10:46:48 PM | message detail |
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Heheh, well, I'm actually trying to find more proof that Chief's
anti-votes have gone downhill, but looking at his matches more cloesly,
it's harder than I thought. The whole Liquid/Frog/MC/Snake affair still hurts my head so much, and the fact that MC = DK bothers me. Though, since he almost broke 40 on Crono... I'm sure he can on Auron.... which makes me more confident about MC > Subby anyway. --- WigFan267 (Now with 86% less Gum and 25% less wigs) : Owned by Z1mmy Since 1987 Happily married to Alanna82 on VDay 2005 |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 8/31/2006 10:49:06 PM | message detail |
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HM, I'm with those who think that if you have Ganon beating Sonic, you might as well have him win the male bracket. I do have Ganon winning the male half of the bracket and I think it's a good as gold if Twilight Princess comes along at or around his match with Sonic. But I sometimes avoid bother to bring up Ganon in reference to the Battle Royale because it starts a whole different argument. If Ganon does win the male bracket though, I think you'll hear more serious "GAH ZeldaFAQs!" whining than ever before. In fact, I see it more as people being legitimately pissed off than whining. It would get pretty bad I think... I would imagine. But I'm not sure what would be so wrong with Zelda actually having a truly powerfull villain. Final Fantasy VII gives us Cloud and Sephiroth and some near-elites. I think it's fine to have Link and Ganon bring up the hero and villain beasts with Zelda hitting up the near-elite area. Still, the whining would indeed be at its largest. I wouldn't mind, though, because Ganon winning the male half would be the best result we'ver ever had in a contest. =p --- "Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120." |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 8/31/2006 10:51:34 PM | message detail |
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Eh, I'd still have Ganon out to Crono, if I had him over Sonic. I thought about it, but if Crono slips up just a bit, he'd be equal with Sonic's 2k5 value. There's only about a percent difference between Sonic and Crono. I also noticed that, to an extent, Ganon tends to do well against Square characters. --- "Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120." |
| creativename | Posted 8/31/2006 10:53:52 PM | message detail |
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And I would join those who said it was among the worst results we've ever seen, and I like Ganon ;) There's just an aura of unworthiness about him...he doesn't seem like he'd deserve it at all. But then, I've never played Wind Waker. It's just that Ganon winning would be a huge anti-climactic thing. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/31/2006 10:56:04 PM | message detail |
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Well, if Sonic were to beat Crono head-on, I'm sure it'd be more of
Sonic getting stronger, even though I can't see him getting THAT big an
increase, despite SR. I.... just don't see it. Crono still, he's been pretty samey I still think, past year or 2. Sonic's "boost" will give him power over Mega, but not Crono... so he's still somewhere in between. Ganon's relevence in this? No idea. But I'd doubt I would still put Ganon over Snake. I might do it, just for the upset chance, but I wouldn't truly believe he could do it. But Ganon's ALMOST there, I think. All speculation of course, pretty baseless too, just kinda reasoning common sensely. >_> --- WigFan267 (Now with 86% less Gum and 25% less wigs) : Owned by Z1mmy Since 1987 Happily married to Alanna82 on VDay 2005 |
| WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/31/2006 10:58:30 PM | message detail |
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I know we've only had 2 battles like this, but I still think Ganon
would be the type to struggle against other Nintendites, more than a
lot of other Nintendites.... --- WigFan267 (Now with 86% less Gum and 25% less wigs) : Owned by Z1mmy Since 1987 Happily married to Alanna82 on VDay 2005 |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 8/31/2006 10:58:36 PM | message detail |
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There's just an aura of unworthiness about him...he doesn't seem
like he'd deserve it at all. But then, I've never played Wind Waker.
It's just that Ganon winning would be a huge anti-climactic thing. If he does somehow gain enough strength to eventually win a contest, everyone will learn to accept him. I had no idea who Sephiroth was at the start of 2K2. Do you think I felt he was worthy of anything, let alone being the board favorite to win the tournament? --- Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... Part of your woooorld! |
| creativename | Posted 8/31/2006 11:02:25 PM | message detail |
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I don't think Sephiroth is a good comparison. He was pretty iconic as an RPG villain, especially around here. A spectacular role in Twilight Princess could make Ganon as iconic, but I wouldn't expect such a role to happen. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Eggplant Lord | Posted 8/31/2006 11:03:14 PM | message detail |
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From therealmnm | Posted 8/31/2006 10:30:17 PM | #301 but I fail to see why Tifa would be more popular Go over my list again if you missed it. As far as those things you listed about Tifa, I'm pretty sure I've seen Ulti or someone else rip into Aeris's personality just as well. (This guy reminds me of my first! I'm going to attach myself to him!) I don't feel this post contributes anything. I'm clearly not going to change my mind based on what you have provided. We should piece together viable evidence reflected in other characters, if anything. Arguing over personal taste doesn't help. It's not as if I denied any possibility of Tifa being stronger than Aeris. If I offended you in making a potential postulation, than that is unfortunate, but I really see no need for such a response. Regarding Ganondorf: are people just banking on TP to push him to win? For those of you who have him winning the male side, do you have Zelda winning the female side? Just wondering. I must be feeling particularly FFVII-y for some reason, because I'd trust Vincent to win the male side more than Ganon (Not that I would ever, like, actually believe anything like that <_<) -=- You. WILL. Eat. Healthily! *Nails you with an assortment of vitamin-rich vegetables* |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 8/31/2006 11:04:06 PM | message detail |
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There's just an aura of unworthiness about him...he doesn't seem
like he'd deserve it at all. But then, I've never played Wind Waker.
It's just that Ganon winning would be a huge anti-climactic thing. I'm not sure why he is unworthy of winning the male half of the bracket. He's easily one of gaming's most popular villains and comes from an iconic series. I would suggest playing The Wind Waker -- his best role in a game yet -- but his character shouldn't really matter too much, I don't think. Link is the most popular character in these contests and what he represents is essentially courage and kindness; there's not much there from a character perspective, which is completely fine because Link kicks ass, but yeah. I.... just don't see it. Crono still, he's been pretty samey I still think, past year or 2. Sonic's "boost" will give him power over Mega, but not Crono... so he's still somewhere in between. It isn't like Crono has to drop off the map for him to be around Sonic's value in 2005. We're talking about a measly percent, which could just be any random thing. It doesn't even need to drop that much, even half a percent makes it closer. If you're taking Ganon to beat Sonic like I am, it does make sense to go the full distance. If Ganon beats Sonic, I think he's going all the way through the remaining two Noble Niners. Ganon's relevence in this? No idea. But I'd doubt I would still put Ganon over Snake. I might do it, just for the upset chance, but I wouldn't truly believe he could do it. But Ganon's ALMOST there, I think. He is definitely almost at the point where he could beat Snake now. Just add in Twilight Princess and he's looking to do great things. That will be the key to Ganon's run through the male half of the bracket. He needs it to make history!! --- "Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120." |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 8/31/2006 11:08:44 PM | message detail |
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A spectacular role in Twilight Princess could make Ganon as iconic, but I wouldn't expect such a role to happen. Well, Nintendo seems to be promising such a role, but I suppose we'll find out soon enough. Regarding Ganondorf: are people just banking on TP to push him to win? For those of you who have him winning the male side, do you have Zelda winning the female side? I've gotten this question before, but they are two entirely different beasts. Ganon is not equal to or behind Zelda like the 2005 stats say. If you give him some increase based on SFF or Nintendo Boost (I give him a reasonable 2%), he is a smidge above Vincent. The amount needed to match Sonic is somewhere around 3%, or 4.5% at the absolute worst. On the other hand, Zelda needs nearly 10% in order to match up with Samus's ranking. Zelda should get a nice boost from Twilight Princess, but that's far too extreme for my tastes. If I'm not taking Ganon over Samus, which I'm not, there's little reason for me to take Zelda over Samus. I do suspect that Zelda will perform much better than the stats indicate though. She should exceed expectations by quite a bit. --- "Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120." |
| HaRRicH | Posted 8/31/2006 11:09:05 PM | message detail |
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Just for fun with the Battle Royal and so we can have them in easy
access here, below is every match ever held between the four guaranteed
characters, Samus, and Crono (twenty matches total), then followed by
their most recent accurate x-stats*...and no, I'm not organizing them
neatly -- we're going from newest to oldest, bay-bee: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2131 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2130 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2129 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2128 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2122 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1780 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1779 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1776 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1774 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1767 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1367 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1365 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1363 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1361 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1357 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1002 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1001 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1000 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=999 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=996 (love it) 1) Link 50.00% 2) Cloud 47.56% 3) Sephiroth 45.06% 4) Mario 39.59% 5) Samus* 39.50% 6) Crono 36.54% 7) Mega Man 35.55% 8) Sonic 35.29% 9) Solid Snake 33.88% *by accurate, it's reasonable that Samus 2k4 is more likely to be accurate than Samus 2k5 (though not necessarily precisely accurate)...thus, what I'm using here. --- Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest. It still hurts to be rear-ended like that..... |
| WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/31/2006 11:13:54 PM | message detail |
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He is definitely almost at the point where he could beat Snake now.
Just add in Twilight Princess and he's looking to do great things. That
will be the key to Ganon's run through the male half of the bracket. He
needs it to make history!! Unless Ganon vs. Sonic happens to be on the exact day TP/Wii comes out (See: Mario/Cloud 2002), I don't think a character can gain loads of %s in a day. It'll take some time, since not everyone is going to get a system immeadatly, so it's gonna take time, less or more depending on how well TP, or the Wii in this case, sells. As for the same day thing, that'sjust votes for random excitement/sheer coincidence I'd believe. But anyway, I think Ganon is ALMOST at that point too, right now, as well. When TP comes out, I don't doubt Ganon will get a boost, but I don't think it will get THAT big, until TP has been out a month or so. Maybe less if it has really good sales, which I expect it will (3 weeks maybe?). Also, there is the thought.... does Ganon appear early in the game? I still think there's a point where Link and company have saturated the market, as far as fans, and they just have converted so many people, that they can't convert anymore to voting Ganondorf over Character A, where they'd vote Character A over Ganon BEFORE TP. I mean, Link and Zelda are going to get bigger boosts than Ganon too... I'm wondering how much. --- WigFan267 (Now with 86% less Gum and 25% less wigs) : Owned by Z1mmy Since 1987 Happily married to Alanna82 on VDay 2005 |
| WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/31/2006 11:17:02 PM | message detail |
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Also, just a mildy unrelated sidenote: Just because a character doesn't do anything over the past year, doesn't mean they won't go up in strength. After all, there's always more people who can go out and play CT. It's a totally random thing, but the possibility still exists. I mean, Ive never played CT, but I could pick it up tomorrow, love to, and there's an extra vote for Crono he wouldn't normally get. --- WigFan267 (Now with 86% less Gum and 25% less wigs) : Owned by Z1mmy Since 1987 Happily married to Alanna82 on VDay 2005 |
| WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/31/2006 11:18:40 PM | message detail |
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*expects the "WTF are you talking about... that makes no sense, Wigs" comments to come in about now* =P <3 --- WigFan267 (Now with 86% less Gum and 25% less wigs) : Owned by Z1mmy Since 1987 Happily married to Alanna82 on VDay 2005 |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 8/31/2006 11:38:27 PM | message detail |
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Ganondorf isn't deserving because he's ultimately always been a jobber
in the Nintendo hierarchy. He's strong here simply because Zelda as a
whole is so phenomenally strong, but there's a reason why the guy
exists as a Captain Falcon clone in SSBM. You can't compare Ganon to Sephiroth because Sephiroth is in an entirely different league as far as villains go. On the Square hierarchy, he's top tier. Square being so strong as a whole here is the oddity that differs from the general population. You can't expect Square to be that strong and not have Sephiroth be at least top five. That's just foolish. Ganondorf is not the same with Nintendo. You give that person a new look, different name, different background, and it makes no difference (heck, he'd probably be significantly stronger if he looked like Sephiroth or something). You will not see tons of Nintendo fans get insanely hyped to see a Ganondorf cameo in a Nintendo spinoff. You will not see his lines made signatures in thousands of message boards while his name graces hundreds of thousands of screennames across the internet. He is not Sephiroth, and he probably never will be -- because he doesn't deserve to be. Now, seeing Ganondorf take the male bracket would be quite a feat, and the awe at seeing such upsets would be enough to make me put such feelings aside and get behind what would arguably the best string of upsets ever. But, uh...Heroic Mario's crazy, guys. Nothing to see here. <_< --- Commit it to memory. |
| Haste_2 | Posted 8/31/2006 11:40:37 PM | message detail |
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Personally I think MC might suffer more anti-votes as the opponent gets
weaker (in otherwords, MC is consistant, but not like other
characters), so CATS is inflated more than DK, while Crono is inflated
the least in relation to MC. Obviously the 50/50 matches should be what
we truly measure MC on, as it's ultimately winning that matters, and we
want the x-stats to predict who WINS more than pinpointing a
percentage. Master Chief has had two 50/50 matches already...we can
safely say MC 2K4 = Frog 2K4 and MC 2K5 = DK 2K5, roughly. So, I think
by far the best thing when judging MC vs. Sub-Zero is to think about
Sub-Zero vs. Donkey Kong, and forget about any of MC's matches. Or, if
you think MC isn't non-linear then you obviously should feel free to
make use of MC's x-stat value. Come to think of it, I'm just not all that confident in what I just said in that last paragraph. I'll go on, though: DK can be hard to gauge, but I think 28-29% on BL (26% on Link 2K5) is a good bet. Call it dilligent-voting or anti-voting or non-linearity for MC...I say it's all the same thing. Thanks for the data, Harrich. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, Z1mZum drinks punch and eats CAKE! ..I think." |
| creativename | Posted 8/31/2006 11:42:13 PM | message detail |
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And on another note on why the Sephiroth/Ganon comparison doesn't work
is that Ganon could never hope to have his own, more-or-less un-SFFable
by the main hero fanbase that Sephiroth does. The best he could hope
for is to have such a great role in Twilight Princess such that he
becomes "respectably SFFable", like Bowser against Mario. But I think
even that is a stretch. *expects the "WTF are you talking about... that makes no sense, Wigs" comments to come in about now* Well, it's just a question of scale :) Characters with actual new games are more likely to have new people play their games. No reason exists for more people to play Chrono Trigger or the ROM than some normal, smallish amount. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 8/31/2006 11:51:50 PM | message detail |
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Unless Ganon vs. Sonic happens to be on the exact day TP/Wii comes
out (See: Mario/Cloud 2002), I don't think a character can gain loads
of %s in a day. It'll take some time, since not everyone is going to
get a system immeadatly, so it's gonna take time, less or more
depending on how well TP, or the Wii in this case, sells. Twilight Princess is not limited exclusively to the Wii. There is a GCN version that will release simultaneously with the Wii version at the same time. For those not wanting to make the jump to a new console and want the game can do so by buying the GCN version. That should remove any problems surrounding that console buying thing. For his match with Sonic, it is banking on gaining loads of percentage pretty quickly like that. But this site, and pretty much everywhere else, will be purely focused on Zelda and nothing but Zelda when that match rolls around. Hype is going to be through the roof here; advertisements in magazines and television will have already begun; etc. When TP comes out, I don't doubt Ganon will get a boost, but I don't think it will get THAT big, until TP has been out a month or so. Maybe less if it has really good sales, which I expect it will (3 weeks maybe?). The effect of Twilight Princess will be seen here for many, many months to come. It should be the primary focus of this site for well into 2007 with how big of a game it is planned to be. I don't think it'll need to take a month for Ganon to get the full effect. He should be able to benefit enough from all of these matches taking place close to the release date. If there's any more to suck out of it, we should see that in next year's contest. Also, there is the thought.... does Ganon appear early in the game? We're uncertain of when/where/how he's going to make his appearance made in Twilight Princess. I have my suspicion that Ganon is the reason for the Twilight Realm, essentially where he was sealed at the end of Ocarina of Time. I would imagine that he's slowly trying to take over Hyrule and is leading a massive army to invade Hyrule and seize it for himself, much like the introduction to The Wind Waker describes. If that's the case, he should be there rather quickly. At the end, I want -- so, so badly -- to believe that Ganon actually ends up killing Link and the ending afterward showing Hyrule in a bleak state before the goddesses choose to flood Hyrule and seal Ganon, which ultimately leads directly into The Wind Waker some hundreds of years later. I mean, Link and Zelda are going to get bigger boosts than Ganon too... I'm wondering how much. Why? Unless Zelda is playable -- and even then I have my doubts -- I would expect Ganon's boost to be much larger than Zelda's. I mean, Ive never played CT, but I could pick it up tomorrow, love to, and there's an extra vote for Crono he wouldn't normally get. That's my situation with Solid Snake!! --- "Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120." |
| creativename | Posted 8/31/2006 11:52:11 PM | message detail |
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Karma Hunter, well said regarding Sephiroth. You put why Sephiroth is more "special" than Ganon better than me. Haste 2: and we want the x-stats to predict who WINS more than pinpointing a percentage. Speak for yourself on that one ;) I'm far more interested in the Oracle Challenge than the bracket contest, for one thing. X-stats are more limited in predicting who wins anyway, because if you need help predicting who wins, it's because the match is close. In which case the error/volatility tends to cloud utility of extrapolation a bit. Not that they aren't useful in most close cases, but I don't think you say that you can only measure someone on 50/50 matches at all. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 8/31/2006 11:55:30 PM | message detail |
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At the end, I want -- so, so badly -- to believe that Ganon actually
ends up killing Link and the ending afterward showing Hyrule in a bleak
state before the goddesses choose to flood Hyrule and seal Ganon, which
ultimately leads directly into The Wind Waker some hundreds of years
later. I can honestly see Ganon getting anti-voted for this. --- Commit it to memory. |
| TheLastOblesik | Posted 8/31/2006 11:56:05 PM | message detail |
| Hmm...if CJay hoested Contest Stats and Discussion... |
| creativename | Posted 8/31/2006 11:56:08 PM | message detail |
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At the end, I want -- so, so badly -- to believe that Ganon actually ends up killing Link Wow :) Never gonna happen, but THAT is exactly the type of thing Ganon would need to become a major fanboy force of his own. He'd become an insta-legend. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| creativename | Posted 8/31/2006 11:57:23 PM | message detail |
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I can honestly see Ganon getting anti-voted for this. As far as I can tell, success as a badass is never anti-voted. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 8/31/2006 11:58:52 PM | message detail |
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Oh, no doubt it would leave an impression and give him one heckuva following, but Ganondorf would be reviled.
If he actually did start to become a force for the upper echelons of
the Noble Nine to reckon with, he'd probably do worse with the board
vote than Cloud. --- Commit it to memory. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/1/2006 12:03:34 AM | message detail |
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And the problem kinda stems from within what LoZ is to begin with. Link
isn't supposed to lose, ever. Maybe if Ganondorf murdered Zelda in cold
blood or something comparable to that I could understand, but Link? People don't like to lose at the end of a game, it makes them feel bad. <_< Heck, I can't think of any really popular games here that fit that bill. --- Commit it to memory. |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 9/1/2006 12:09:05 AM | message detail |
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Ganondorf isn't deserving because he's ultimately always been a
jobber in the Nintendo hierarchy. He's strong here simply because Zelda
as a whole is so phenomenally strong, but there's a reason why the guy
exists as a Captain Falcon clone in SSBM. This is not nearly as bad as it sounds. The difference between Nintendo and Square is that the Big N has created tons of iconic, likable characters over the course of their entire history. From before Zelda was even a thought in Miyamoto's incredible brain, they had created characters like Mario, Peach, and Bowser. Sephiroth has to compete with basically no one. Before Final Fantasy VII, Square had basically no notable characters that were ever popular outside of Japan. Their breakthrough in that respect was Final Fantasy VII -- and nothing they've created since has ever compared. Sephiroth is able to take full advantage of the fact that there is no other for him to compete with other than people within his own game. The characters that Ganondorf has to compete with are such names like Mario, Link, Bowser, Samus Aran, etc. Sephiroth has to compete with...Cloud. Further, the whole "Square" deal here can be almost entirely put as "Final Fantasy VII." Sure, we do see other Square characters perform well in these contests, but who performs the best? Cloud, Sephiroth, (Crono), Vincent, Tifa, and Aerith. Square's forces in these contests come from almost one game entirely. It's understandable why Ganon isn't a Sephiroth right now. But for there to be something wrong with him becoming one is too much to swallow. If Twilight Princess propels him to that "noble" level, it would not be undeserving at all. It would be one of the most impressive things we'll have ever seen in this contest for someone like Ganon, when you look back at his contest history, to become such a force in these contests and ultimately be the one to do away with the Noble Nine concept. He may not have tons of fans quoting him, making screenames after him, or dedicating entire fansites to him -- but how much does Link get of that? Mario? Samus? Characters that come from RPGs have that advantage of being more character focused with craploads of dialogue and whatnot. Simply because he lacks these things as of now -- the whole comment about TP having more than twice as much text as TWW has me somewhat excited -- does not make him undeserving. To achieve this level, he needs Twilight Princess; if Twilight Princess can propel him to that level, then he did something right. --- "Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120." |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/1/2006 12:14:08 AM | message detail |
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He may not have tons of fans quoting him, making screenames after
him, or dedicating entire fansites to him -- but how much does Link get
of that? 1. Link doesn't talk 2. There are like 17 screennames with Link in the name on this board alone 3. There are a disturbing amount of Link fansites with people who want to do disturbing things with and to him --- Commit it to memory. |
| creativename | Posted 9/1/2006 12:14:56 AM | message detail |
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People don't like to lose at the end of a game, it makes them feel bad. <_< If such a thing were to happen, I'm sure it would result in the old RPG main-character-switcheroo dealie. To Midna, say. Though, it would never happen. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 9/1/2006 12:15:35 AM | message detail |
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I can honestly see Ganon getting anti-voted for this. I cannot imagine him being more anti-voted than Sephiroth would be anti-voted. By doing something like that, he is cementing himself as the creator of what may go on to be one of the largest spoilers ever. You would get people who hate him for it, but you would also get tons of people who would love him for it. That's the kind of thing that makes you insanely popular. =p he'd probably do worse with the board vote than Cloud. Pfft! People here would enjoy that more than what you're thinking. Killing Link would get him many fans here, I would wager. I mean, yeah, it would suck. The thought of Ganon, say, stabbing Link in the forehead is not a pleasant thought (Wonder where I got that from). Seeing Link die would...suck, but when you get past all that, that act would be undeniably badass. =p People don't like to lose at the end of a game, it makes them feel bad. <_< I thought about how that might work. The best I could come up with is to play out a final battle like normal, but after you make the final hit, switch to a cutscene where the two finish the fight, along with some dialogue. Thinking something like the Spaceworld 2001 demo where Ganon and Link fought, except Ganon ultimately ends up winning. << --- "Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120." |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/1/2006 12:21:20 AM | message detail |
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And fine, replace 'Square' with 'FFVII'. It's the same principle. If
FFVII's that popular, it's insane to expect Sephiroth to *not* be
elite. Again, we're talking about a character that gets 46% on Cloud on
his worst day (and 49% on his best) while Ganondorf looks worse than
CATS. Ganondorf remains undeserving. If he truly does get a role that catapults him into the stratosphere, then the fact is it's not Ganondorf anymore. A Ganon worth something other than just being the villain of Zelda is something we have yet to see. --- Commit it to memory. |
| WiggumFan267 | Posted 9/1/2006 12:23:24 AM | message detail |
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What I mean is, you need more people who haven't played a LoZ game ever
before to all of a sudden pick it up and start liking it. By this
point, most fans of whoever have to be pretty well-versed in what
characters they like more than another. I would like to think most
people's favorite characters list are pretty solid, but then again, I'm
looking at HM here =P. Don't you think there's a certain point though where a character from the most popular series of all time can't get any more popular? Link, Zelda, and Ganon have been in every single LoZ game. If you haven't played one by now, I doubt you ever will. Sure, there's new gamers, but what are the odds that a NEW GAMER will come to GameFAQs? Also, most gamers who come here proabaly already HAVE played at least one LoZ game and can already judge if Ganondorf (or Zelda or Link) is someone that they would like/vote for. I mean, TP may make fans like Ganondorf, or whoever in TP more, but we can't really answer "How Much more?" There is no way to answer that. Like, someone who likes Sonic more than Ganon (but likes both) before TP, goes out and buys TP and likes Ganon more.... but we can't tell if he'll like Ganon more than Sonci after it. Ganon will get hardly any votes from people who've never played a LoZ game before (who come here) because there's like only 10 people in the world like that. Such a saturated series has already taken its affect. For people who's favorite character(s) are Ganon or LoZ characters... well liking them MORE doesn't mean MORE votes. It's not how much you like the character, it's howmany people like the character, on any level. People who didn't like Ganon before, probably won't after TP. Why? People are stubborn. You'll get very few of those to convert. And I'm not talking game-wise... I mean character-wise (for all we know, Ganon may not have a big role too). I bet it'll be much easier to like TP, than a character who's typically been associated with your normal, boring, basic, villian who kidnaps the princess plot. It could be the same old Ganon. So, basically, my point is for Ganon to be able to beat Sonic, you're going to need people who would normally like Sonic more to come over and switch to Ganon. Being 2 different types of games, and also while 1 is a Hero and 1 is a villian, I think that's less likely to happen. Whew, *faints* I wonder how much of that was gibberish anyhow. =p --- WigFan267 (Now with 86% less Gum and 25% less wigs) : Owned by Z1mmy Since 1987 Happily married to Alanna82 on VDay 2005 |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/1/2006 12:40:09 AM | message detail |
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Regarding Ganondorf: are people just banking on TP to push him to
win? For those of you who have him winning the male side, do you have
Zelda winning the female side? Just wondering. I must be feeling
particularly FFVII-y for some reason, because I'd trust Vincent to win
the male side more than Ganon (Not that I would ever, like, actually
believe anything like that <_<) Yes, TP is what will push him to victory. I believe that if it happens before TP, Vincent will be his toughest opponent, although Crono could also take that title. HM outlined my reasons for Samus > Zelda + Ganon If Vincent was the star of FFXII, I would take him over the male bracket too. But TP is much bigger than FFXII is. .I mean, Link and Zelda are going to get bigger boosts than Ganon too... I'm wondering how much. Why are they going to get bigger boosts? Ganondorf isn't deserving because he's ultimately always been a jobber in the Nintendo hierarchy. He's strong here simply because Zelda as a whole is so phenomenally strong, but there's a reason why the guy exists as a Captain Falcon clone in SSBM. Ganon is easily the best Nintendo character. He's stronger than Zelda is, despite Zelda having the awesomeness of Sheik. Ganon was a clone in SSBM just because they ran out of time, and he played entirely differently from CF. He's more popular than you might think with the Nintendo fanbase, just check any poll with him in it on any other site. (heck, he'd probably be significantly stronger if he looked like Sephiroth or something). Indeed. The main reason Sephiroth is popular is because he looks cool and has a big sword. How else can you explain Kefka's weakness relative to Sephy's strength? Sephiroth certainly deserves to be weaker than Kefka, and he certainly doesn't deserve to even come close to winning a contest, but unfortunately, he is strong, and there's nothing we can do about it. Heck, I can't think of any really popular games here that fit that bill. Heh, one of the top five games on this site kinda has that. Maybe that's why its main is so popular? After all, it's constantly cited as Ms. Spoiler's reason for her popularity. --- Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent. |
| WiggumFan267 | Posted 9/1/2006 12:43:37 AM | message detail |
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Why are they going to get bigger boosts? Link is because he's Link. Someone in Japan says the name Link and he gets twice as popular. Link should be obvious though, he's the hero you play as him. I can't explain Link, he's just insane. Zelda actually could get the old name benefit, but actually her's and Ganon's would be about the same.... I still doubt how big the boosts will be though. --- WigFan267 (Now with 86% less Gum and 25% less wigs) : Owned by Z1mmy Since 1987 Happily married to Alanna82 on VDay 2005 |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/1/2006 12:43:56 AM | message detail |
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What I mean is, you need more people who haven't played a LoZ game
ever before to all of a sudden pick it up and start liking it. By this
point, most fans of whoever have to be pretty well-versed in what
characters they like more than another. I would like to think most
people's favorite characters list are pretty solid, but then again, I'm
looking at HM here =P. Don't you think there's a certain point though where a character from the most popular series of all time can't get any more popular? Link, Zelda, and Ganon have been in every single LoZ game. If you haven't played one by now, I doubt you ever will. Sure, there's new gamers, but what are the odds that a NEW GAMER will come to GameFAQs? Also, most gamers who come here proabaly already HAVE played at least one LoZ game and can already judge if Ganondorf (or Zelda or Link) is someone that they would like/vote for. I mean, TP may make fans like Ganondorf, or whoever in TP more, but we can't really answer "How Much more?" There is no way to answer that. Like, someone who likes Sonic more than Ganon (but likes both) before TP, goes out and buys TP and likes Ganon more.... but we can't tell if he'll like Ganon more than Sonci after it. Ganon will get hardly any votes from people who've never played a LoZ game before (who come here) because there's like only 10 people in the world like that. Such a saturated series has already taken its affect. For people who's favorite character(s) are Ganon or LoZ characters... well liking them MORE doesn't mean MORE votes. It's not how much you like the character, it's howmany people like the character, on any level. People who didn't like Ganon before, probably won't after TP. Why? People are stubborn. You'll get very few of those to convert. And I'm not talking game-wise... I mean character-wise (for all we know, Ganon may not have a big role too). I bet it'll be much easier to like TP, than a character who's typically been associated with your normal, boring, basic, villian who kidnaps the princess plot. It could be the same old Ganon. So, basically, my point is for Ganon to be able to beat Sonic, you're going to need people who would normally like Sonic more to come over and switch to Ganon. Being 2 different types of games, and also while 1 is a Hero and 1 is a villian, I think that's less likely to happen. Plenty of the people on this board alone have cited Wind Waker as a new reason to vote for Ganon. Kingdom Hearts turned Squall Haters into Leon Lovers. I used to despise Tifa, but after AC, I kinda like her. Jigglypuff used to be my least favorite Pokemon, but I love her thanks to the Smash games. You can even extend that beyond games - look at the Wii and PS3 before and after E3. Nintendo and Square overlap almost completely on this site. Most who are fans of one are also fans of the other. Votes can be changed because of the effects of one game, and Twilight Princess will change opinions. I guarantee it. --- Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent. |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 9/1/2006 12:46:20 AM | message detail |
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3. There are a disturbing amount of Link fansites with people who want to do disturbing things with and to him I am currently in the process of trying to get this out of my head. Here I thought I had just gotten rid of the last disturbing fangirl site I had accidentally run across. >> Don't you think there's a certain point though where a character from the most popular series of all time can't get any more popular? If there were any character I would have expected to never do much increasing until 2005, it was Mario. Who doesn't know Mario? Added to that, you either like Mario or you don't like Mario. There is little room another game can do to help out his character. Despite this, Mario was insane last year and put up his best numbers yet. If Link, too, is any indication, there is no absolute ceiling for a character; they can always have more room to improve. Someone as beastly as Link is still going to go up by a good bit this year, he supposedly increased last year. The leader of the most popular series here is still going up, so I don't doubt the villain from this series doing such a thing. Sure, there's new gamers, but what are the odds that a NEW GAMER will come to GameFAQs? Well, you could maybe get some of those people eventually through the Wii. It's whole idea is attracting a new crowd to gaming. For people who's favorite character(s) are Ganon or LoZ characters... well liking them MORE doesn't mean MORE votes. All that would do is further to strengthen the existing fanbase. By liking them more, the potential is there for those Zelda characters to get more votes when it comes a match they would have otherwise not been voted. If someone plays TP and likes Ganon more than before, it might have been enough to like him more than, say, Vincent or Crono or whoever. You already like him and vote for him, but that extra game just gives you more reason to vote him over characters; he becomes more of a favorite for you than before. People who didn't like Ganon before, probably won't after TP. Why? People are stubborn. You'll get very few of those to convert. And I'm not talking game-wise... I mean character-wise (for all we know, Ganon may not have a big role too). If Ganon's role is anything like Nintendo is saying, he could get people who dislike him to at least become apathetic at the worst. People are not going to dislike a character for the sake of sticking to their opinions when that character manages to go up so much in their eyes. As for Ganon's role -- "No discussion of Twilight Princess' enemies can end without mentioning Ganon," Yoshiyuki said. "I know that everyone's wondering what's going on with Link's old nemesis. All I can say now is, we're preparing more than you could possibly ever, ever, ever expect." (Interestingly, Twilight Princess will be the first Zelda game to get an anticipated Teen rating from the ESRB!! Ganon killing Link confirmed!! <<) --- "Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120." |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/1/2006 12:49:20 AM | message detail |
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Link is because he's Link. Someone in Japan says the name Link and he gets twice as popular. Link should be obvious though, he's the hero you play as him. I can't explain Link, he's just insane. Zelda actually could get the old name benefit, but actually her's and Ganon's would be about the same.... I still doubt how big the boosts will be though. Here's the thing: you have to think about those characters relative to the other games, and relative to their current strengths. I don't see Link getting as big a boost as the other two because he's already so strong, and it's hard to boost when you're that strong. Zelda won't be getting a boost because her name is in the title, she'll be getting a boost because of the game itself, and because of her role in it...which, going by the name "Twilight Princess" should be pretty good for her. Nintendo saying Ganon's going to be better than ever before is why Ganon will have the biggest boost, but if Zelda's bigger and better too, I suppose she could match Ganon. One final note: just getting a great game can be enough for characters to boost, regardless of their roles in it. Even if Ganon doesn't appear until the last 5 minutes of TP, I'm confident that it will boost him enough to beat Sonic, just because of the Zelda fan influx to the site, and a rising pro-Zelda feeling from people in general. Having LoZ on your mind is enough to vote Ganon over Sonic if you wouldn't before. --- Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent. |
| WiggumFan267 | Posted 9/1/2006 12:52:15 AM | message detail |
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Good points, yep. My biggest question is, even though its on our minds, I'm questioning how much it will TRULY influence the majority of gamer's votes.... I'm skeptical. Anyway, Sonic fans are stubborn. I'm one of them. I know =P. Right, I need sleep. I'll chat with you guys if I get on tomorrow. Later. =p --- WigFan267 (Now with 86% less Gum and 25% less wigs) : Owned by Z1mmy Since 1987 Happily married to Alanna82 on VDay 2005 |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/1/2006 12:56:34 AM | message detail |
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Anyway, Sonic fans are stubborn. I'm one of them. I know =P. Heh, I was a Sonic fan long before I was a Ganon fan. People do change their minds on who they like, you know. --- Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent. |