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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 353

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WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/31/2006 8:53:23 PM | message detail
I mean, that BR list is a pretty good summation, besides maybe switching Cloud and Sephm but I guess that part doesn't really matter.
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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/31/2006 8:58:00 PM | message detail
Link - 35%
Cloud - 20%
Sephiroth - 25%
Mario - 10%
Samus - 5%
Crono - 5%


I'm not sure I see Sephiroth getting 25% there. I don't think Cloud is ever going to fall behind in this thing. The whole "hero SFF" thing doesn't sit right with me. I'm not expecting Sephiroth to ever really out rank Cloud. If he does, I think he'll just barely get by with a percent or two. The left over of that could go to Crono, I think, who should be able to avoid bringing up the rear.

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"Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120."
therealmnm | Posted 8/31/2006 9:00:45 PM | message detail
You know, I still get Samus to get at least 10%. It's not like she gets SFF'd to the GROUND. There still are Samus fans you know. We're acting like Mario pulled a Link/Ganondorf number on her. She still should get a decent chunk of votes. Looking deeper into it, it's still pretty wide open to me.
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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/31/2006 9:24:30 PM | message detail
There's Link ... then there's Mario ... and then there's Samus.

She should get hit pretty damn hard with SFF in such a poll. I'd be surprised if she finished in any place but last.

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"Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120."
HaRRicH | Posted 8/31/2006 9:24:36 PM | message detail
Yeah, I expect everybody to have 10+%.
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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/31/2006 9:25:55 PM | message detail
I cannot see everyone pulling 10% when Link is going to take at least 30% of that for himself.

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"Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120."
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/31/2006 9:27:30 PM | message detail
On the one hand there's Mario/Samus, but on the other hand there's Link/Samus...troubling. It all really depends on the opponent that gets there, I think. I mean, if Sonic gets to the Royale, Samus is *not* getting anything but last, even if MP3 is released the day of the match.
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Janus5000 | Posted 8/31/2006 9:28:04 PM | message detail
I'd be amazed if Samus didn't drop below 10%. Link hitting 40% wouldn't be at all surprising after TP, and Cloud and Sephy combined should account for at least 30%, and that seems really low.
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therealmnm | Posted 8/31/2006 9:28:06 PM | message detail
She should get hit pretty damn hard with SFF in such a poll. I'd be surprised if she finished in any place but last.

But Link and Mario didn't SFF Samus to the point where she still wasn't a strong character. She still has a core set of fans, which is all you need in that poll. It's getting really exaggerated on how badly she got SFF'd.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/31/2006 9:30:16 PM | message detail
But who do you think has more core fans -- Samus, or *insert potential Royale contender here*? I can't see her having as many die-hards as anyone else.

I also wouldn't expect Link to be so tame with her in a rematch. Call it...a hunch.
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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/31/2006 9:35:03 PM | message detail
She got SFFed pretty damn bad against Mario alone. She ends up to somewhere around near-elite levels when she was against him. And Link...another match between those two alone would not be pretty. I wouldn't expect her to get close to matching her percentage that she put up in 2003 against Link now.

I don't even expect Mario to be bringing up too much in that poll. I would anticipate about 10% or so for him and then that much less for Samus. These "core fans" aren't really going to amount to much, I don't think, certainly not enough to make her avoid last. Of course, if Ganon gets there then it's a different story!! <<

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"Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120."
Janus5000 | Posted 8/31/2006 9:37:42 PM | message detail
Yeah, we'd be debating whether or not he could break 2%.

...Wait, that'll be after TP. 3%.
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Tequilla Gundam | Posted 8/31/2006 9:38:26 PM | message detail
6.) Zelda
5.) Crono
4.) Mario
3.) Sephiroth
2.) Link
1.) Cloud
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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/31/2006 9:39:12 PM | message detail
I'm sure we could get him to 5%!!

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"Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120."
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/31/2006 9:39:46 PM | message detail
6.) Zelda

2.) Link
1.) Cloud


That makes no sense. <<

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"Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120."
Lopen | Posted 8/31/2006 9:40:53 PM | message detail
I can't believe this topic is totally writing off MC/Auron but humoring MC/Sub-Zero. MC's stats are broken because he's MC... but I don't think Auron's placement is that reliable either. Samus very well could've been overadjusted. If you trust the stats, MC has a real upset potential I think.

Then again, we probably shouldn't trust the stats. More of an "Auron beats DK with ease" issue here. And yeah, I agree with that, even with a Nintendo boost Auron probably gets a comfortable win... but Master Chief is just a freak. Like you can't trust what he did against Crono as entirely accurate, I don't think you can trust what he did against DK as accurate either.

If a possible "KH2 boost" didn't scare me so much, I'd consider Master Chief as an upset pick. Okay... I'm considering it now... but it'd already be in my bracket! He'll definitely get closer to Auron than Sub-Zero will get to him. The only factor that gives Sub-Zero a chance of making that match interesting is the new game being released a few days before the match, I say. Then again, I've never advocated Sub-Zero being significantly stronger than Scorpion anyway. Doesn't really make sense to me. Ryu's got a lot more going for him as it relates to Ken than Sub has to Scorpion.

Sorry I'm just randomly throwing topics from hundreds of posts ago... but I want to post in here more, by gawd!
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Tequilla Gundam | Posted 8/31/2006 9:41:41 PM | message detail

That makes no sense. <<


Link can lose! lawl!
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therealmnm | Posted 8/31/2006 9:45:04 PM | message detail
She got SFFed pretty damn bad against Mario alone. She ends up to somewhere around near-elite levels when she was against him. And Link...another match between those two alone would not be pretty. I wouldn't expect her to get close to matching her percentage that she put up in 2003 against Link now.

That was not "damn bad". Damn bad if you're looking one-on-one where people have to choose between only two options. So yeah, she lost a good amount of her strength based off of that. But a lot of those she lost were probably from people that don't really care about her anyways. The question is how much of that 40% that did vote for her are true fans? There's certainly enough votes within that 40% for her to do well. Remember, you need far less votes to do well in this poll. It's a totally different monster.

And like I said, Samus didn't get SFF'd to the ground to where she still didn't get a fair chunk of votes. I know Link probably gets more on her in a rematch, but seeing Mario do almost as well as Link 2k3 may lead me to believe that there's a core group of Samus fans somewhere within that. Enough for her to avoid getting killed in that poll. She doesn't get SFF'd to the point where she becomes a non-factor in the poll. I mean, look at the Mario polls. There's plenty of SFF thrown around in there, yet the Top 4 still are able to get their 10% or greater, with Toad right there as well. The Battle Royal will have 2 less characters, plus the bottom 3-4 will probably be a lot closer than the characters in the Mario poll... These will all be heavy hitters mind you...
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transience | Posted 8/31/2006 9:46:37 PM | message detail
if even Lopen won't pick Master Chief over Auron, you know there's no chance of it happening.
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Eggplant Lord | Posted 8/31/2006 9:47:43 PM | message detail
Okay, I don't know what people think of this or if this means anything to most people, but I calculated the base stats of Aeris proportionate to other characters in 2005 she faced in 2003.

Through Sonic -- 36.175
Through Master Chief -- 37.137
Through Sora -- 34.25

Average -- 35.85

I also did it based on 2004 stats.

Through Sonic -- 33.816
Through Master Chief -- 38.652
Through Sora -- 38.569

Average -- 37.012

Now here's Zelda through her matches:

Snake -- 33.71
Vivi -- 32.47
Mega Man (a 2003 match) -- 30.45

Average -- 32.21

Obviously, this match will take place after Twilight Princess, so Zelda will likely receive a boost; however, it is quite apparent that Aeris as is is stronger. Looking at the stats as an outline, I doubt it is all possible that Tifa > Aeris, though Aeris reaching Vincent in strength seems plausible (female lead, *spoilers*, not universally hated like a moogle-riding pc that we know...). Zelda is close to the bottom of this range. I also firmly believe in a boost for Aeris, because, as most people should have noticed, FFVII's price went through the roof. Gamestop.com even kicked up its price for it (I'm not sure what it is now). Advent Children and Dirge of Cerberus are definitely increasing interest in FFVII. The match would then be based on whether the TP boost can outdo the FFVII boost so decisively as to propel Zelda to victory. It is clear which side I want to support, I suppose.

*fears criticism*

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transience | Posted 8/31/2006 9:47:56 PM | message detail
also, I agree with mnm. Metroid may not have the core fans to stand up against Zelda, but Samus didn't exactly get Ganondorf'd. she still got two out of every five votes against Mario.
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transience | Posted 8/31/2006 9:49:38 PM | message detail
the problem with your numbers, Eggs, is that Aeris's last year was Square's best year. go look at any Square character and check them from 2k3 to 2k5. if you believe Aeris is stronger than Tifa or Vincent you've got something, but if you don't.. well, she's not going to be that strong.

(does that mean Aeris can't beat Zelda? heck no.)
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Tequilla Gundam | Posted 8/31/2006 9:53:09 PM | message detail
Take Aeris > Zelda, then.

she still got two out of every five votes against Mario.

You say that like its an achievement.
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Lopen | Posted 8/31/2006 9:53:37 PM | message detail
And yes, I realize my reasoning for Chief > Auron being a possibility is "Master Chief is a freak". It's very deep. Logic doesn't apply to Master Chief.

Do you think 2k5 DK gets ~50% on 2k4 Frog? Alright, maybe that doesn't have any relevance... Halo 2 and whatnot. Whatever... basically I don't trust X-Stats or matches or anything for Master Chief. Master Chief matches come from the heart.

And... um... shut it, Tranny... I'm considering it! That should make you afraid! I've perfectly predicted Master Chief every time!!
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transience | Posted 8/31/2006 9:54:48 PM | message detail
it is when Link vs. Ganondorf was seven to one. there's a freaking huge difference.
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therealmnm | Posted 8/31/2006 9:59:57 PM | message detail
And frankly, 2/5 against Mario could be all Samus needs if that 2 stick with her in the Battle Royal. Put it this way. Mario could have beaten Samus 80-20. If that 20% sticks with Samus in the Battle Royal, while Mario's votes go to Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Crono, Samus potentially could still beat Mario in that particular poll. That's an extreme example, but I'm just throwing it out there. We know very little about each characters core fanbase, and that is exactly what this poll is about. Past one-on-one polls mean far less.
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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/31/2006 9:59:57 PM | message detail
Link can lose! lawl!

Link? Lose? That's funny!!

But the problem is you having Zelda beat Samus -- I don't need to describe how ridiculously large a boost would need to be -- and not Link beating Cloud. There's no way that Link is getting out done by Zelda for a boost from the game, even if she is playable. If Zelda beats Samus, Link is going to win the Battle Royale by an even larger margin than I suspect.


And like I said, Samus didn't get SFF'd to the ground to where she still didn't get a fair chunk of votes. I know Link probably gets more on her in a rematch, but seeing Mario do almost as well as Link 2k3 may lead me to believe that there's a core group of Samus fans somewhere within that. Enough for her to avoid getting killed in that poll.

You still have two Nintendo characters who are going to take away essentially all of Samus's votes from the overall Nintendo fanbase. There is no avoiding her getting "killed" in that poll because everyone is going to be getting killed. I have my doubts about these large core fans of Samus that are going to make it enough for her to last enough to get anything but last. She isn't placing ahead of Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, or Mario -- that's four of the six. Unless she gets someone who gets SFFed more, such as Mega Man, then I can't see her getting the next spot.

Samus isn't going to be getting beat down in that poll so much she's barely looking to hold onto 5% or anything, but I doubt her ability to go and put up 10%. That's the kind of percentage I'm expecting Mario to put up, and she's not out doing Mario.

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RPGuy96 | Posted 8/31/2006 10:01:03 PM | message detail
Well, when you have roughly 50% of the vote to split between three characters and one of them is Link, the strongest character on the site, and the other is Mario, the face of Nintendo, I don't think it's unreasonable for Samus to get left by the wayside. Corruption and the Wii launch will probably help her out (and could push the overall Nintendo portion of the vote over 50%), but, well, she doesn't have the best of histories against Link and Mario, and 40% of 40% doesn't give her much when there isn't a whole lot to go around.
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therealmnm | Posted 8/31/2006 10:02:02 PM | message detail
And Eggplant Lord, you still leave out that we've seen how Tifa stacks up to Zelda within the same year. And I seriously hope you don't think Aeris is more popular than Tifa. Even if you assume Aeris = Tifa, that's still about a 50-50 matchup with Twilight Princess on the horizon. You can throw all the past stats you want at the matchup... That's all I really need to look at.
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Eggplant Lord | Posted 8/31/2006 10:04:28 PM | message detail
My main point is that Zelda is so favored, yet there isn't overwhelming evidence of this. It's a disputed match, but I haven't seen much discussion. If there were, I'd think the Board Odds would be more balanced (hopefully, I didn't just miss all the discussion).

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Lopen | Posted 8/31/2006 10:05:04 PM | message detail
Oooh, interesting. I now... join the two conversations!

Fact or Fiction: If Master Chief somehow won the Male Bracket he'd get 2nd or 3rd in the Battle Royal.

(please don't say something like "lol he got a huge boost so ya")
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transience | Posted 8/31/2006 10:06:32 PM | message detail
ha, that would be something. no, I'd give him... fifth, I suppose. maybe fourth, but not above Mario.
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therealmnm | Posted 8/31/2006 10:07:02 PM | message detail
40% can surely get her 10%, which could be enough for her to take out the likes of Crono or something. We still don't know how he holds up against Cloud and Sephiroth. I'm just saying, I'm not automatically throwing Samus into last place. She has a good chance of getting 5th and even a slight chance of beating Mario depending on how much Link takes from Mario. It all comes down to how much of a core fanbase Samus has. I'm just saying that it's within possibility.
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transience | Posted 8/31/2006 10:07:54 PM | message detail
I'll agree that she has a chance of getting fifth, but there's no way she has a bigger core fanbase than Mario. hell, they've both gone against Link and Mario held up better.
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Eggplant Lord | Posted 8/31/2006 10:08:06 PM | message detail
From therealmnm | Posted 8/31/2006 10:02:02 PM | #279
And I seriously hope you don't think Aeris is more popular than Tifa.

The thing about that is... <_<;

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transience | Posted 8/31/2006 10:09:49 PM | message detail
just curious - when did Tifa > Aeris become such a lock? it used to be debated a year and some ago ('long with Vincent), but now people seem to take it as fact that Tifa is indirectly stronger than Aeris.
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dethfdddddh | Posted 8/31/2006 10:11:29 PM | message detail
People began to assume that the fanbase favors Tifa some time ago.
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Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 8/31/2006 10:12:28 PM | message detail
My main point is that Zelda is so favored, yet there isn't overwhelming evidence of this.


It's the "When in doubt, go with Nintendo" mentality combined with the "When in doubt go with Zelda" mentality.

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RPGuy96 | Posted 8/31/2006 10:13:09 PM | message detail
I'd probably pick Aerith over Tifa, but I'd pick Zelda over both so that doesn't really matter. I'm not sure when Tifa being the strongest really started - probably as soon as people started calling for her to win the contest after her match with Vyse.
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creativename | Posted 8/31/2006 10:13:10 PM | message detail
This whole "Master Chief's performances are fluky" hypothesis is getting accepted waaaaay too strongly as fact.

People use the CATS performance as an example, but who was the one guy in these topics that kept insisting CATS could push 30% in that match? Me. And that had nothing to do with anti-votes, it had to do with Face CATS being a different entity entirely than Eggplant CATS; and Master Chief not receiving much of a boost from Halo 2

And a basic rule of analysis is that you want to trust the logic of the person who predicted most accurately.

So the CATS match doesn't indicate much about anti-votes. So for the anti-votes side we're left with the Felix match, and anything regarding that is pure speculation as we know nothing about Felix (and can never know, as he's likely much weaker now anyway). For all we know that was Sword Factor far more than anti-votes.

Then for the overperformance side you're left with his performance on Crono, which was about 2.5 points better than would've been expected the previous year. That's noticeable, but not overly convincing as some sort of clear overperformance (especially if you suspect Crono dropped a bit). And that too could be just as easily explained by Sword Factor again (this time working in Chief's favor), as any sort of "Chief is fluky" theory.

So remember: next time you hear that Master Chief performs weirdly, take it with a ginormous grain of salt. If you think the Sword Factor explanation is flat-out silly, remember that it's got just as much evidence for it as MC being fluky.

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Lopen | Posted 8/31/2006 10:13:13 PM | message detail
I don't know what happened with that either... I mean I just hate Aeris's guts, I don't know why Tifa > Aeris is "accepted fact" all of the sudden. Aeris v Zelda definitely deserves more attention, too.

And I say fact. Master Chief having a 25% core fanbase seems feasible... maybe more like 20%. 25% voting for you every time is enough to roll over the competition until 2nd or 3rd I think.
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therealmnm | Posted 8/31/2006 10:13:22 PM | message detail
Well Advent Children and KH2 pretty much seals it in my eyes. And even before it, what does Aeris have over Tifa? Tifa's with the party from near the beginning. She stays prominent in the game to the very end. She draws casual appeal with her battle skills. And she has teh juggs.

Aeris has... *spoilers*? I'm not saying the difference is that big, but I certainly don't see Aeris being MORE popular than Tifa.
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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/31/2006 10:14:25 PM | message detail
Looking at the stats as an outline, I doubt it is all possible that Tifa > Aeris, though Aeris reaching Vincent in strength seems plausible

Eh, Tifa being stronger than Aeris isn't much of a stretch at all. At this point, I would suspect that Tifa is stronger than Aeris based upon what she has had in the past year (KH2 and AC). But taking it into consideration before that, the two should be about equal as of 2005. There is no reason to expect Aeris to be more popular than Tifa by an amount that puts her on par with Vincent. There's no way she even thinks about approaching those levels.

I also firmly believe in a boost for Aeris, because, as most people should have noticed, FFVII's price went through the roof. Gamestop.com even kicked up its price for it (I'm not sure what it is now). Advent Children and Dirge of Cerberus are definitely increasing interest in FFVII.

I doubt Aeris's ability to get much of a boost from any of this. She had a bit role in AC (only made couple of physical appearances), her role in KH2 was the same as KH, and she had nothing to do with Dirge of Cerberus at all. If you take into consideration the "Square Influx" in 2003, something you seem to be similarly expecting her, Aeris only got a 2% boost or so. I would imagine that being significantly smaller for this year, given the site preference and what is on the horizon.

The numbers you used for her through this are entirely too high for her too. She has missed out on the contest since 2003, which is three years. She'd be doing good to come back and be equal to what Tifa put up in 2005. She's not hanging with someone like Vincent when her best year was also in line with Square's best year.

The match would then be based on whether the TP boost can outdo the FFVII boost so decisively as to propel Zelda to victory. It is clear which side I want to support, I suppose.

Twilight Princess should do significantly more than any type of FFVII boost. Zelda is likely to have a prominent role in the game, and that helps when she's already projected to beat Aeris 2k3 with about 51%.

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dethfdddddh | Posted 8/31/2006 10:15:06 PM | message detail
She has the original KH, which was a far bigger deal than KH 2.
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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/31/2006 10:16:29 PM | message detail

It's the "When in doubt, go with Nintendo" mentality combined with the "When in doubt go with Zelda" mentality.


And even further combined with "Twilight Princess is coming out"!!

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"Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120."
transience | Posted 8/31/2006 10:19:19 PM | message detail
People use the CATS performance as an example, but who was the one guy in these topics that kept insisting CATS could push 30% in that match? Me. And that had nothing to do with anti-votes, it had to do with Face CATS being a different entity entirely than Eggplant CATS; and Master Chief not receiving much of a boost from Halo 2


http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k5&type=match&match=41
http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k5&type=match&match=17

as someone who nailed Master Chief last contest, I can say that I did so based on his antivotes. I don't think you can even question the fact that antivoting exists when you look at some of the boosts certain characters are getting. Nintendo boost or not, DK doesn't go from a whooping at Vivi's hands to an Ulti-style blowout over him.
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creativename | Posted 8/31/2006 10:19:59 PM | message detail
Oh, for the MC vs. Crono performance comparison, I was using unadjusted 2K4 Master Chief. Unadjusted MC was overrated by Snake/Frog but underrated by Link/Mega Man. In any event MC's 2K4 value isn't overly reliable, which also means it might not be a great way to support an overperformance on Crono the next year (especially since Halo 2 came out in between).

As for Aeris/Tifa, that's always seemed debatable. I never thought there was much difference between the two, and either could be stronger I think.

I think Aeris' chances against Zelda are definitely underrated. I see that as almost a toss-up match.

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Eggplant Lord | Posted 8/31/2006 10:21:21 PM | message detail
To me, at least, Aeris is a lot more memorable.

I do agree with Ulti on some points regarding Tifa. She's whiny. She's selfish. The real female lead of FFVII is Aeris in my mind. I certainly can't represent the whole of FFVII fans, but I fail to see why Tifa would be more popular (I know what TJF is <_<).

Popularity of a character can be attributed to "badass" attitudes, popularity of the game/series, how agreeable their character is (Link? Cloud (angsty teens)? Crono? Samus? Mario?), or memorable impact to the plot. Tifa and Aeris are mostly equal, but not in that last one.

The factors deciding characters' popularity should definitely be explored more thoroughly. If it were possible to pinpoint sources of popularity, it might even lead to SCF (similar characteristics factor! ^_^), but it in general could compare characters within game with more precision.

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/31/2006 10:23:43 PM | message detail
There's Link ... then there's Mario ... and then there's Samus.

She should get hit pretty damn hard with SFF in such a poll. I'd be surprised if she finished in any place but last.


You don't have Ganon as the male champion anymore HM? :(

But even then, think of it this way: how many people who voted Ganon over Link wouldn't vote him over Mario and Samus too?

My main point is that Zelda is so favored, yet there isn't overwhelming evidence of this. It's a disputed match, but I haven't seen much discussion. If there were, I'd think the Board Odds would be more balanced (hopefully, I didn't just miss all the discussion).

Zelda has TP.

That's about all the discussion we need.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/31/2006 10:25:55 PM | message detail
You don't have Ganon as the male champion anymore HM?

It's such an unpopular choice that I don't really even bother bringing it up. I'll always take a shot at someone who says Sonic winning the main bracket or whatever, but I don't really bother discussing Ganon over Crono/Mega Man, or acknowledging it in the stats topic.

But when it happens we'll look like geniuses! =p

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"Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120."