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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 353

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WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/31/2006 7:24:53 PM | message detail
Oh, I know why I don't remember!


I had Liquid Snake beating Frog. I'm not sure who I had bewteen LS and Chiefy though. I think I may have had LS, but I guess it didn't matter.


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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/31/2006 7:26:02 PM | message detail
Meaning that Liquid Snake was obviously as strong as Solid Snake that year!
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Commit it to memory.
trannyscience | Posted 8/31/2006 7:26:52 PM | message detail
you know.. thinking about it, what SFF adjustments are we going to need to make?

- Tifa/Celes (provided it happens, though I don't think Celes is strong enough to warrant noticable SFF)
- Squall/Tidus
- potential weirdness in the Kirby/Luigi/Zero fourpack
- Snake/Squall?

this bracket looks almost SFF-less. should have a nice set of stats.
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xyzzy
longbladeofhiko | Posted 8/31/2006 7:27:03 PM | message detail
*Goes back to page 16*

HM shouldn't bash MK games damnit >_> also, Sub-Zero Anthologies wasn't THAT bad guys.
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WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/31/2006 7:28:06 PM | message detail
Ah, cmon KH. >_>


Yeah, his match vs Snake was probably a fluke then, yes? 48.6% on Snake is nothing short of respctible, but it doesn't make sense that Chief would do that well on Snake...

Anyway, perhaps I should have said he SEEMED strong in 2004.... but then was Chief still sort of weak in 04? It's hard to call 2 matches flukes for 1 character.


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WigFan267 (Now with 86% less Gum and 25% less wigs) : Owned by Z1mmy Since 1987
Happily married to Alanna82 on VDay 2005
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 8/31/2006 7:28:36 PM | message detail
Dont forget Mega Man/Samus. >_>
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RPGuy96 | Posted 8/31/2006 7:28:45 PM | message detail
Samus/Zelda, could be weird.
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"Who knew that head wounds bled so much?" ~ Kieran, Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance
trannyscience | Posted 8/31/2006 7:29:33 PM | message detail
Samus/Zelda could be odd, but Ganon/Zelda wasn't very odd and Zelda should be fresh off Twilight Princess.. I kind of expect it to be normal. this is assuming MP3 isn't out.
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xyzzy
trannyscience | Posted 8/31/2006 7:29:47 PM | message detail
er, Ganon/Samus. yeah, you knew that.
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xyzzy
longbladeofhiko | Posted 8/31/2006 7:29:54 PM | message detail
- potential weirdness in the Kirby/Luigi/Zero fourpack

I can see some wierdness in Luigi/Zero for some reason, but not so much in Kirby/Zero or Kirby/Luigi. Not sure why.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
Xuxon | Posted 8/31/2006 7:33:42 PM | message detail
lol Daisy
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trannyscience | Posted 8/31/2006 7:35:14 PM | message detail
yeah and Nidoran F, but they're so insignificant that I pretend they don't even exist.
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xyzzy
therealmnm | Posted 8/31/2006 7:37:42 PM | message detail
There's also potential Auron/Crono
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AmazingKirby | Posted 8/31/2006 7:38:11 PM | message detail
Aeris/Marle?
Rikku/Kairi?
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caps
WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/31/2006 7:38:44 PM | message detail
Anyway, I admit my wrongness about Frog and stuff. =P

But, I digress. Chief didn't look great in 05, from all we know, assuming he would do as DK did on Sammy, Chief would get 65% on Sammy. But Sub-Zero's recent stuff isn't going to help him a whole hell of a lot, and Scorpion was already overarted from 2002 to 2003.

And like we said, Chief should be breaking 40% on Auron, even after KH2. Scorp has shown his weakeningness over the past years and if this match was held in 03, I'd take Subby, but I think those anti-votes are getting slightly less prominent (or just cancelling out more with those diehards >_>). So, while I'll still use good ole dependable Auron for my basis, ....er... well... I just don't think Scoprion is that popular anymore, as Sub-Zero would follow. It's too bad, because Subby is awesome.



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WigFan267 (Now with 86% less Gum and 25% less wigs) : Owned by Z1mmy Since 1987
Happily married to Alanna82 on VDay 2005
trannyscience | Posted 8/31/2006 7:39:14 PM | message detail
well, FF7/CT looked somewhat clean, so maybe those two will be too. Rikku/Kairi I missed.
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xyzzy
trannyscience | Posted 8/31/2006 7:40:46 PM | message detail
those are both on the girl side where we aren't likely to be seeing a repeat though, so it's not that big of a deal.

Auron/Crono should be similar to Vincent/Crono.. I don't expect much SFF there.
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xyzzy
WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/31/2006 7:41:27 PM | message detail
I can see some wierdness in Luigi/Zero for some reason, but not so much in Kirby/Zero or Kirby/Luigi. Not sure why.

Well, a lot of people will say Bowser/Kirby was weird, and maybe it was.... but I think it was weird in the sense that SFF probably helped Bowser and Kirby really IS that strong. I think there was more weirdness in Bowser/Snake, but not THAT much.



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WigFan267 (Now with 86% less Gum and 25% less wigs) : Owned by Z1mmy Since 1987
Happily married to Alanna82 on VDay 2005
Xuxon | Posted 8/31/2006 7:41:33 PM | message detail
Katana SFF!
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therealmnm | Posted 8/31/2006 7:44:40 PM | message detail
well, FF7/CT looked somewhat clean, so maybe those two will be too. Rikku/Kairi I missed.

Bringing up stuff from the dead, I still say that there's a good possibility of CT being SFF'd in that matchup. There's still a significant gap between OoT and CT in those stats. And nothing says that Ocarina of Time handily beats Chrono Trigger in the first place. Plus looking at the series contest, perhaps SMB3 is even stronger than what those stats indicate, along with LttP, SMW, and other NES/SNES games. Maybe the reason for Division 128 looking so much stronger had to do with the upper half of the bracket being underrated rather than that division being overrated... Food for thought.
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frisqo | Posted 8/31/2006 7:47:46 PM | message detail
Anyone else getting slightly worried about the Battle Royal? With votes getting thinned out against multiple choices, almost anything is possible. Samus being 6th and Link getting 1st is almost guaranteed, but could there me so much SFF that somthing like Mario, Crono, Cloud, Sephiroth for 5th-2nd is possible?




Nah.
trannyscience | Posted 8/31/2006 7:49:19 PM | message detail
possible? yep, that's why I said "somewhat". I dunno though, I can't see CT being that close to OOT. plus the reason we have no proof is because we only had one contest. we don't have proof of pretty much anything from that contest.
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xyzzy
RPGuy96 | Posted 8/31/2006 7:57:59 PM | message detail
The battle between Cloud, Sephiroth, and Crono is the most intriguing one to me, as we already know that Link > Mario > Samus and the positions of Link and Samus. So the only trick there is getting Mario's placement right. But, assuming Cloud/Sephiroth/Crono have about 50% of the vote to work with, how in the world does that break down? I wouldn't think many people would have Crono as their favorite character, but I'm still surprised at how well he does in these contests and I love CT. He could either be a distant third or very competitive. And Sephiroth/Cloud...we know that Cloud is stronger, but once you take away more than half of the vote and reduce it to the hardcore FFVII fans, would Sephiroth come out on top? I'm completely out of touch with the FFVII fanbase so I have no idea, but I'm tempted to think so. Or Cloud could get nearly all the FFVII votes and leave Sephy in the dust fighting Crono, I have no idea. I'm still miffed about my cookie cutter battle royale but I'm not sure how to change it.

I've been trying to come up with rough percentages for the six way battle and I'm coming up completely blank.
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trannyscience | Posted 8/31/2006 7:59:56 PM | message detail
I'd probably vote for Crono in that thing. I'm still trying to think about how the hell voting is going to work there. bracket votes are gonna be crazy.
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xyzzy
therealmnm | Posted 8/31/2006 8:00:53 PM | message detail
I think Advent Children's large fan service to Cloud gives him a nice edge over Sephiroth in that poll.
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Draco1214 | Posted 8/31/2006 8:01:34 PM | message detail
There's a possibility Crono beats Samus and Mario if Link SFFs them hard enough.
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Character Battle V Score - 0/0 points
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trannyscience | Posted 8/31/2006 8:04:01 PM | message detail
I dunno, I see this as potential ranges:

Samus - 6th - 5th
Crono - 6th - 3rd
Sonic - 6th - 3rd
Mega man - 6th - 5th
Mario - 5th - 3rd
Sephiroth - 5th - 3rd
Cloud - 3rd - 2nd
Link - 2nd - 1st
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xyzzy
Janus5000 | Posted 8/31/2006 8:05:05 PM | message detail
How can second be part of Link's possible range if no one else can be first? >_>
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trannyscience | Posted 8/31/2006 8:06:13 PM | message detail
yeah, I was just being nice.
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xyzzy
RPGuy96 | Posted 8/31/2006 8:06:24 PM | message detail
I think it's safe to assume that more people have Mario as their favorite (out of the five/six) than Crono, even in the year that Crono beat Mario. But I could be underrating how many people like Crono, I'm not sure. For me, Crono's in the same boat as Link - I love his game(s) and like him, and as such would vote for him over a lot of characters, but he isn't going to win many favorites polls for me. Maybe I'm projecting that onto GameFAQs, but, then again, that might very well be the common line of thought.
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Draco1214 | Posted 8/31/2006 8:08:14 PM | message detail
Also, we've never seen Crono go up against Cloud or Sephiroth, and there's the possibility he could get SFFd hard. If you believe in Crono/Vincent rSFF, then the possibility looks damn good.
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Character Battle V Score - 0/0 points
Current Prediction - Samus Aran vs. Nidoran F
WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/31/2006 8:14:20 PM | message detail
I think if Mega Man makes it into the BR, he'd do better than Sonic based on that I'd think Mario would SFF Sonic a lot more than Mega.

I think Link has the power to sap enough strength out of Mario to let Mega even past him, but I'd highly doubt it.

Doesn't matter, since if Sonic beats Crono, he's beating Mega, or at least, that would be my pick.


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WigFan267 (Now with 86% less Gum and 25% less wigs) : Owned by Z1mmy Since 1987
Happily married to Alanna82 on VDay 2005
trannyscience | Posted 8/31/2006 8:15:40 PM | message detail
nah, Sonic would do better than Mega Man. hell, Shadow got 45% on Mario. do you think Mega Man could pull that off?
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xyzzy
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/31/2006 8:15:46 PM | message detail
I think Link has the power to sap enough strength out of Mario to let Mega even past him, but I'd highly doubt it.

What...? Link got more SFF on Mega Man than he did on Mario.
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Cavalier Lowen | Posted 8/31/2006 8:16:54 PM | message detail
I think if Mega Man makes it into the BR, he'd do better than Sonic based on that I'd think Mario would SFF Sonic a lot more than Mega.

Shadow/Mario ring a bell?
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therealmnm | Posted 8/31/2006 8:17:06 PM | message detail
I think if Mega Man makes it into the BR, he'd do better than Sonic based on that I'd think Mario would SFF Sonic a lot more than Mega.

I think you have that backwards... No way that Sonic the character gets SFF'd by Mario more than Mega Man. On the contrary, Sonic probably would stand up to Mario rather well. We're not talking about games here.
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Draco1214 | Posted 8/31/2006 8:17:34 PM | message detail
Mega Man would still get SFFd, particularly because of Link's presence, but Mario's presence can also cause trouble for the blue bomber. If Snake somehow wins the male side, then he'll have to face possible FF7/MGS SFF. The only noble niner who has a shot at not getting SFFd is Sonic.
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Character Battle V Score - 0/0 points
Current Prediction - Samus Aran vs. Nidoran F
Eggplant Lord | Posted 8/31/2006 8:18:00 PM | message detail
Wow, thank you Haste :D

-=-
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*Nails you with an assortment of vitamin-rich vegetables*
Yesmar | Posted 8/31/2006 8:20:14 PM | message detail
In response to the odd numbers surrounding the characters in Master Chief's fourpack:

In my opinion, there's a very real possibility that Master Chief suffers from anti-votes. X-Box is by far the most hated system on GameFAQS, and I don't think it's that unreasonable to assume that Donkey Kong and CATS overperformed on Master Chief due to anti-votes.

There's no real evidence to support this, but I doubt that Felix would have been on par with 2003Yuna and KOS-MOS as the stats indicate. Chances are that Master Chief suffered from anti-votes then, and while the hate has died done somewhat, I think it is still present in some form.
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therealmnm | Posted 8/31/2006 8:20:58 PM | message detail
Snake would stand up pretty well in that poll, considering his strength relative to the rest of the Noble 9. The Battle Royal is pretty much going to come down to core fanbases. I think Snake has a pretty solid core fanbase on this site. Enough so that he'd do well in that poll. He might be SFF'd by the FFVII crew in a one-on-one poll, but with a poll as split as the Battle Royal, he would definitely hold his own.
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therealmnm | Posted 8/31/2006 8:22:30 PM | message detail
In my opinion, there's a very real possibility that Master Chief suffers from anti-votes.

Whaaaaaaaat?! This simply cannot be.
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WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/31/2006 8:23:34 PM | message detail
God, you guys are so ****ing sarcastic and that's why I love ya. ^_^




UNLESS THAT WAS SARCASM! WHOA!


BLOWS THE MIND!

<3
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WigFan267 (Now with 86% less Gum and 25% less wigs) : Owned by Z1mmy Since 1987
Happily married to Alanna82 on VDay 2005
trannyscience | Posted 8/31/2006 8:24:04 PM | message detail
yeah, if I was ranking strength in that thing, I'd go Sonic > Snake > Crono > Mega Man > Samus.
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xyzzy
Master Moltar | Posted 8/31/2006 8:24:24 PM | message detail
So then...without anti-votes, Chief would have gotten between 40-45% on Crono or something?

Amazing!
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Moltar Status: Bracket filled and ready to go.
2006 is the year of Samus Aran
WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/31/2006 8:24:47 PM | message detail
Sonic probably would stand up to Mario rather well. We're not talking about games here.

Ah, and yes, good point. I didn't really consider that.

Maybe I can even use The Shadow thing as a real fact for once.


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WigFan267 (Now with 86% less Gum and 25% less wigs) : Owned by Z1mmy Since 1987
Happily married to Alanna82 on VDay 2005
therealmnm | Posted 8/31/2006 8:29:48 PM | message detail
You know... Crono is pretty popular on this site, but I don't see many people having him more popular than Mario/Link/Sephiroth/Cloud/Samus. He's still hugely popular, but I just can't see him getting many votes against competition like that all in one poll. I'm not saying he gets killed, but I don't see him beating anybody but a SFF'd Samus.
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/31/2006 8:43:34 PM | message detail
BOLD PREDICTION: Round 1 of the Royale is going to be something like...

Link - 35%
Cloud - 20%
Sephiroth - 25%
Mario - 10%
Samus - 5%
Crono - 5%

x_X Basically, sheer dominance from Clinkeroth.

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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/31/2006 8:45:20 PM | message detail
Samus/Zelda could be odd, but Ganon/Zelda wasn't very odd and Zelda should be fresh off Twilight Princess.. I kind of expect it to be normal. this is assuming MP3 isn't out.

The fact that she'll be fresh off Twilight Princess is almost why I would expect that match to be weird. I'm expecting that one to heavily against what stats we have now, actually. Zelda still loses, but she'll get much more than she would.

And Ganon/Samus still needs some adjustment, but it's not too much.

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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/31/2006 8:49:24 PM | message detail
I think Link has the power to sap enough strength out of Mario to let Mega even past him, but I'd highly doubt it.

You remember that match Link had against Mega Man where he demolished him by nearly getting 70%?

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"Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120."
WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/31/2006 8:52:35 PM | message detail

Cloud - 20%
Sephiroth - 25%


O RLY?

Hehe.


Anyway, yeah I think that's a pretty good idea.

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WigFan267 (Now with 86% less Gum and 25% less wigs) : Owned by Z1mmy Since 1987
Happily married to Alanna82 on VDay 2005