GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 353
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| ZenOfThunder | Posted 8/31/2006 7:44:51 AM | message detail |
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30232733 </plug> --- (|| ' ' ||) ~*~Zen and Halo: United at Last! 8/26/06~*~ . /|_|\ http://objection.mrdictionary.net/nominatepwaa.php |
| Tequilla Gundam | Posted 8/31/2006 7:46:45 AM | message detail |
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8%? What are you smoking? More like Snake gets close to breaking 48%. Snake (2005c) VS Mega Man (2005c) Snake has a strength of 36.97. Mega Man has a strength of 38.79. Mega Man wins with 52.35% of the vote! A win of 4,289 with 91,405 total votes cast. --- Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/31/2006 7:48:55 AM | message detail |
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BOLD PREDICTION! In the finals, Samus doesn't come close to
beating Crono by what Mario beat him by last year, putting a final,
humiliating nail in the Samus > Mario bandwagon >_> TuRtLe ~~~ lol Z1mZum | BSE Contest final score: 61 pts Nominate Carmen Sandiego for Character Battle V |
| Tequilla Gundam | Posted 8/31/2006 7:49:53 AM | message detail |
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Samus doesn't come close to beating Crono I agree. --- Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin |
| luigi4500 | Posted 8/31/2006 8:29:58 AM | message detail |
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| luigi4500 | Posted 8/31/2006 8:31:07 AM | message detail |
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Master Chief vs subzero = big match --- People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones. |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 8/31/2006 9:03:32 AM | message detail |
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Sub-Zero is going to win that match, savvy? --- "...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow |
| ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/31/2006 9:05:02 AM | message detail |
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I savvy alright. That was gonna be the upset I didn't tell anyone about. >.< --- Put 3 CDs, a blender, two forks, and an action figure in the microwave with your GBA SP. Turn it on defrost for ten minutes, and when the timer reads five, spray it with the hose. ~ Pyrrian |
| luigi4500 | Posted 8/31/2006 9:06:18 AM | message detail |
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why? --- People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones. |
| charmander6000 | Posted 8/31/2006 9:17:25 AM | message detail |
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Bold Prediction: Sub-Zero will break 45% against MC, but who will then turn around and break 45% on Auron. --- "I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush |
| Haste_2 | Posted 8/31/2006 9:18:47 AM | message detail |
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I'll eat my shoes if MC gets 45% on Auron! --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, Z1mZum drinks punch and eats CAKE! ..I think." |
| charmander6000 | Posted 8/31/2006 9:21:44 AM | message detail |
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Clean or Dirty? >_> Auron (2005c) VS Master Chief (2005c) Auron has a strength of 30.88. Master Chief has a strength of 30.87. Auron wins with 50.02% of the vote! A win of 31 with 96,039 total votes cast. --- "I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush |
| luigi4500 | Posted 8/31/2006 9:25:06 AM | message detail |
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do you think subzero could beat auron? --- People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones. |
| charmander6000 | Posted 8/31/2006 9:35:51 AM | message detail |
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Auron no, SZ will have a hard enough time trying to beat MC. --- "I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush |
| H__RR____H | Posted 8/31/2006 9:41:30 AM | message detail |
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Auron got like 65% on Scorpion, and Sub-Zero isn't going to do 15%
better. Now, Sub-Zero is apparently more liked than Scorpion...and I
heard there'll be a new MK game about two days before MC/SZ...if that's
the case, depending on what you think of each and if you think MC's a
real oddity or not in MC/Crono, there could be a huge upset there. It
just depends, of course...I'm taking MC, but it's not 100% safe. --- Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio |
| H__RR____H | Posted 8/31/2006 9:46:04 AM | message detail |
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I would also like to ask this -- does anybody think that there is a big
enough influx of new 360 gamers to boost MC much/any? It certainly
can't hurt him, and given his matches I don't figure it'll matter TOO
much...but it's a valid question. --- Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio |
| Haste_2 | Posted 8/31/2006 9:53:15 AM | message detail |
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That is an interesting point, but after seeing Halo lose to Castlevania
this summer I have to guess that MC won't be any stronger than last
year... --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, Z1mZum drinks punch and eats CAKE! ..I think." |
| H__RR____H | Posted 8/31/2006 10:22:59 AM | message detail |
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Fun fact: assuming MC beats Sub-Zero and Alucard doesn't pull a massive
upset, this year should make MC become 0-4 against Square characters.
First, Aeris...then, Frog...last year, Crono...now, Auron? Count on it. --- Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio |
| voltch | Posted 8/31/2006 11:27:53 AM | message detail |
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can't believe i haven't been following a stats topic when a freakin contest is about to start. --- Z1mZum humiliated me to hell and back in the Best.Series.Ever contest. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 8/31/2006 11:28:06 AM | message detail |
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Wow, according to the poll a LOT of people aren't interested in the
next character contest at all. I mean, yeah, they took the time to vote
in this crappy poll so they'll probably at least vote, but between the
dropoff in votes we've had since the last contest (remember how many
votes those standard polls were getting?) and the fact that 40% of
those that *are* voting just don't care about the contest... ...now, to be fair, there's also this poll: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2051 Which implies similar numbers, but compared to the level of interest we garnered during the Series Contest, I just don't think that's going to be matched this time around. That may not mean too much, but there's no telling if Final Fantasy wins the contest with a dropoff in voters (or if Zelda ends up beating FF with 55%). I expect things in terms of the voter pool to stay pretty close to they were in 2005, at least before the big releases start hitting. Which should be very soon, which kind of makes this discussion superfluous. But I just wanted to throw in that Vincent will beat Ganondorf thanks to reduced votals !! HA HA --- Commit it to memory. |
| ExplicitAriel | Posted 8/31/2006 11:37:25 AM | message detail |
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I don't think you can even question whether or not the votals will be
as high as last years. The series contest was a new fresh idea with
popular series, higher votals right there. It was during the summer,
higher votals right there. We have females who no one really cares
about, and it sure as hell is going to put a dent in votals, sure it'll
bounce back up for the male matches, but I still think it'll have a
negative effect on them. That's three thing this contest has against it
for getting as good of votals as series. I wouldn't expect anything
more than 2K5 numbers, if that. --- Explicit Content Cheer Up Angsty Mermaids. |
| charmander6000 | Posted 8/31/2006 12:04:07 PM | message detail |
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Well the PotD has regularly been breaking 90k (though today's vote
total is really low) so it might not be like the Series Contest, but it
will be higher than SC2k3. --- "I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush |
| SowlLikesMen | Posted 8/31/2006 12:04:45 PM | message detail |
| School hasn't started back up yet either though... I wouldn't expect anymore than 2K5 votals. |
| SowlLikesMen | Posted 8/31/2006 12:05:05 PM | message detail |
| For everyone I should say. |
| charmander6000 | Posted 8/31/2006 12:16:03 PM | message detail |
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Still the average vote totals after the contest is 90,717. One month
before the series contest started only 8 matches broke 80k and none
broke 90k. I don't think school affects the vote totals that much, it's
just that people will vote at different times both SC2k4 and 2k5 didn't
see much of a drop in vote totals part way when school started. --- "I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush |
| SowlLikesMen | Posted 8/31/2006 12:17:39 PM | message detail |
| That's also because later rounds usually have better match-ups consisting of more popular characters that equal higher votals. But it is true about votals being high before it even starts. |
| Phediuk | Posted 8/31/2006 1:07:40 PM | message detail |
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I feel useless not saying anything for so long. So, uhh, all hail Vincent>Ganondorf, the sexiest upset pick in some time. --- "Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle." -Toad in Super Mario Bros. |
| cyko | Posted 8/31/2006 1:10:57 PM | message detail |
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i don't see any way that Sub-Zero will stand up to Master Chief. here, follow my reasoning: - last year (2005), MC got 38.71% against Crono, while Vercetti got 29.15% against Crono. that means that Vercetti would be expected to get 37.65% against MC. - in 2004, Vercetti got 38.15% against Zero (which was AFTER Vercetti supposedly dropped in strength.) and in 2003, Scorpion lost to Zero with 37.16% (in Scorpion's last contest appearance). - so, unless Zero dropped significantly from 2003 to 2004, then Scorpion is just a little weaker than Vercetti, meaning that MC should be able to handle Scorpion with ease. - unless people significantly prefer the color blue over red/orange, i see no other reason why Sub-Zero will be significantly stronger than Scorpion. therefore, i believe that MC vs. Auron will be much closer than MC vs. Sub-Zero. --- i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest. Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!! |
| Janus5000 | Posted 8/31/2006 1:14:05 PM | message detail |
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I... don't really buy DK going from losing to Vercetti to 60/40ing him two years later, Boost or Bust. --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
| cyko | Posted 8/31/2006 1:15:18 PM | message detail |
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doesn't matter if you buy it or not, Janus, because it DID already happen. --- i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest. Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!! |
| cyko | Posted 8/31/2006 1:16:02 PM | message detail |
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plus, most people do acknowledge that Vercetti did drop from 2003 to 2004, but didn't seem to drop much more from 2004 to 2005. --- i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest. Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!! |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 8/31/2006 1:16:11 PM | message detail |
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- last year (2005), MC got 38.71% against Crono This is where you start going wrong. - in 2004, Vercetti got 38.15% against Zero (which was AFTER Vercetti supposedly dropped in strength.) Vercetti 2k4 is stronger than Vercetti 2k3. (in Scorpion's last contest appearance). Scorpion's last appearance was 2k4. - unless people significantly prefer the color blue over red/orange, i see no other reason why Sub-Zero will be significantly stronger than Scorpion. This argument has NEVER worked. What is the difference between Ryu and Ken? Despite how apparently similar many characters from the same games are, the difference in their strengths tend to be significant. therefore, i believe that MC vs. Auron will be much closer than MC vs. Sub-Zero. And again, MC's value on Crono is and always has meant jack. If you ask me which upset I take between Subby > MC and MC > Auron, I take Subby every time. --- Commit it to memory. |
| marioinblack | Posted 8/31/2006 1:20:36 PM | message detail |
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Anyone else have Samus beating Crono in the finals, but Samus being eliminated before Crono in the BR? I have a good feeling that crazy Link/Mario SFF will destroy Samus in the BR. --- I am not changing this sig until the Devil Rays get into 3rd place in the division with at least 20 games played. (Started 9/16/04) |
| red sox 777 | Posted 8/31/2006 1:22:04 PM | message detail |
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Anyone else have Samus beating Crono in the finals, but Samus being eliminated before Crono in the BR? Looking at the BOP, I think the majority of this board does. --- "........!" ~Magus |
| cyko | Posted 8/31/2006 1:26:52 PM | message detail |
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none of your refutals bring up any factual evidence whatsoever, KH.
except for Scorpion's last match being against Auron. i did forget
about that one. >_> i'm starting to think that you just like to disagree with everything i have to say. =P --- i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest. Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!! |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/31/2006 1:27:28 PM | message detail |
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I'm of the school of thought that MC does good against RPG characters,
Square in particular. Actually, I just pulled this out of my ass now,
but it seems to fit. Frog, Crono, and probably Auron this year. TuRtLe ~~~ lol Z1mZum | BSE Contest final score: 61 pts Nominate Carmen Sandiego for Character Battle V |
| Master Moltar | Posted 8/31/2006 1:31:25 PM | message detail |
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It's very hard for me to believe DK would get nearly 39% on Crono, which is why I don't buy MC's performance. And Vercetti 2k4 is only a tad stronger than 2003 (though 2004 is behind Link/Mega). --- Moltar Status: Bracket filled and ready to go. 2006 is the year of Samus Aran |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 8/31/2006 1:36:15 PM | message detail |
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none of your refutals bring up any factual evidence whatsoever, KH. *sigh* Okay. First, Vivi/DK 2004: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1740 Vivi absolutely humiliated Donkey Kong, getting 56.5% on him. Now, let's look at the projections for Vivi/DK 2005 (Donkey Kong being behind Master Chief the primary thing to keep in mind): Vivi (2005c) VS Donkey Kong (2005c) Vivi has a strength of 27.26. Donkey Kong has a strength of 30.38. Donkey Kong wins with 55.13% of the vote! A win of 8,864 with 86,306 total votes cast. That. Is. Not. Happening. Let's also keep in mind that Donkey Kong, if we take his boost as legitimate, has the biggest boost out of ANY Nintendo character. Bigger than Mario, bigger than Luigi, bigger than Kirby. That's insane. As for Vercetti 2k4 being stronger than Vercetti 2k3...Vercetti 2k4 has a higher ranking on BL. What more do you want? And finally, Sub-Zero *is* different from Scorpion in many ways. Different moves. Different character (Sub-Zero is typically good, Scorpion is neutral/evil). From MK3 on, Sub-Zero has an ENTIRELY different design from Scorps. He's had his own game, something Scorpion has not had. They're different. --- Commit it to memory. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 8/31/2006 1:37:39 PM | message detail |
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I'm of the school of thought that MC does good against RPG
characters, Square in particular. Actually, I just pulled this out of
my ass now, but it seems to fit. 1) MC is 0-3 (soon to be 0-4) against Square characters. 2) Remember MC/Felix? Felix got 47.04% against him, in case you don't. 3) At best, you could make a case saying MC does better against either CT characters or the elites...but both of those would be based off of one match: MC/Crono. MC wasn't special against Aeris, and MC's expected to beat the hell out of Frog last year (unadjusted, anyway, though heavy adjustments still has them close at best). --- Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest. It still hurts to be rear-ended like that..... |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 8/31/2006 1:40:05 PM | message detail |
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Sub-Zero is going to win that match, savvy? Haha! Gold!! --- "Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120." |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/31/2006 1:40:57 PM | message detail |
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Let's also keep in mind that Donkey Kong, if we take his boost as
legitimate, has the biggest boost out of ANY Nintendo character. Bigger
than Mario, bigger than Luigi, bigger than Kirby. That's insane. Vivi was behind Sephiroth in 2k4, which would make DK's boost less extreme...but it would also make Vivi's drop more extreme, so... And I firmly believe that DK would beat Vivi in a rematch, even if it had taken place in 2k5. Maybe not with 55%, but still. We've seen bigger changes in match results in a year's time than that. As for Vercetti 2k4 being stronger than Vercetti 2k3...Vercetti 2k4 has a higher ranking on BL. What more do you want? Indeed, and 2k4 is the year we saw Vice City's impressive performance against SSBM. Where's the idea that Vercetti dropped come from? Most think that he dropped after San Andreas came out, but that was only after the contest ended. --- Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent. |
| Haste_2 | Posted 8/31/2006 1:42:27 PM | message detail |
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-MC gets large amounts of anti-votes, which'll lose a couple percent
points (down from 62% to 60% against 2K5 Vercetti) against a much
weaker opponent like Sub-Zero after doing the initial x-stat
calculations. -Scorpion is stronger than 2K5 Vercetti: compare performances of Scorp and Kefka against Pac-Man (58% against Scorp)...a bit risky to say Scorpion maintained most of his strength, but at least the evidence is there that Vercetti 2K5 is underneath Vercetti 2K4, and a 2% difference rather than 5% should be conservative enough. -Sub-Zero is stronger than Scorpion (56% against Sub-Zero) So, MC with 56% sounds about right. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, Z1mZum drinks punch and eats CAKE! ..I think." |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 8/31/2006 1:44:47 PM | message detail |
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HM, if you believe Ganondorf > Sonic, Crono and Megaman, do you also believe Sonic > Crono and Megaman? --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz Hi-ho, Hi-ho, Z1m Zum, Z1m Zum...our guru champ. |
| yoshifan823 | Posted 8/31/2006 1:45:13 PM | message detail |
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And not a single character has been in all of the Mortal Kombat games.
Sub-Zero has been in all but one of them. The one he wasn't in? The
worst of them all, Special Forces. He has much more exposure. And he
also has the TMNT fan vote. *Yoshifan* |
| HaRRicH | Posted 8/31/2006 1:46:59 PM | message detail |
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Also, just to elaborate on the last thing I said, in the unadjusted stats MC comes just shy of doubling
Frog (66.3%). In order for Frog to match MC without adjusting MC (and
this is assuming you still think MC/Frog would be neck-n-neck, take it
as you will), Samus not only has to be far past Mario, but Samus would
have to be at 47.4% on Link... ...and, FYI, Cloud is at 47.56% on Link. Also, as a bit of trivia, Samus got 40.99% against Cloud in 2k4. --- Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest. It still hurts to be rear-ended like that..... |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 8/31/2006 1:47:18 PM | message detail |
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Vivi was behind Sephiroth in 2k4, which would make DK's boost less
extreme...but it would also make Vivi's drop more extreme, so... But the other Nintendo characters have the exact same arguments. The theory of Mario being underrated in 2k4 has been well circulated by now. Luigi was behind potential Link/Samus SFF in 2k3, and behind Link/Yoshi (and even possibly Yoshi/Luigi, if you're one of those believers) SFF in 2k4. Bowser got SFFed by Mario in 2k4. Kirby was behind Cloud/Squall SFF, and Squall was behind potential Link/Samus SFF in 2k3. No matter how you slice it, DK almost surely had the biggest boost out of the Ninty crew if you take Master Chief seriously. And I firmly believe that DK would beat Vivi in a rematch, even if it had taken place in 2k5. Maybe not with 55%, but still. We've seen bigger changes in match results in a year's time than that. Uh huh. The one rematch that had around that much of a swing that I can think of is Sephiroth/Mega Man. Even the change from Mario/Crono 2k4 to Mario/Crono 2k5 doesn't compare to the swing projected there. Not to mention there's the problem of Sam Fisher being that damn strong despite his absolute wasting at the hands of Samus a year before. --- Commit it to memory. |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/31/2006 2:06:20 PM | message detail |
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HM, if you believe Ganondorf > Sonic, Crono and Megaman, do you also believe Sonic > Crono and Megaman? I'm not HM, but IMO Ganon > Crono > MM > Sonic. Of course, the match results won't like exactly like that. I expect Ganon to have his closest match with VV (if it happens pre-TP), and for him to do best against MM, thanks to the wonder of SFF. Also, just to elaborate on the last thing I said, in the unadjusted stats MC comes just shy of doubling Frog (66.3%). In order for Frog to match MC without adjusting MC (and this is assuming you still think MC/Frog would be neck-n-neck, take it as you will), Samus not only has to be far past Mario, but Samus would have to be at 47.4% on Link... ...and, FYI, Cloud is at 47.56% on Link. Also, as a bit of trivia, Samus got 40.99% against Cloud in 2k4. Samus's first two matches in 2k4 make up some of my best contest memories. Ah, the classic MM vs. Samus final...could we be seeing you again? Uh huh. The one rematch that had around that much of a swing that I can think of is Sephiroth/Mega Man. Even the change from Mario/Crono 2k4 to Mario/Crono 2k5 doesn't compare to the swing projected there. Indeed. Which is why I said that DK wouldn't win by that much, even if he would still win. Not to mention there's the problem of Sam Fisher being that damn strong despite his absolute wasting at the hands of Samus a year before. You think Samus's first two matches in 2k4 were legit? At all? --- Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent. |
| SowlLikesMen | Posted 8/31/2006 2:08:39 PM | message detail |
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Not to mention there's the problem of Sam Fisher being that damn strong PoP must be even stronger then !!, A++++ WOULD READ AGAIN. |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 8/31/2006 2:10:10 PM | message detail |
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No, of course Samus' first matches in 2k4 weren't legit. Lara is twice as strong as that match showed ! ! --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz Hi-ho, Hi-ho, Z1m Zum, Z1m Zum...our guru champ. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 8/31/2006 2:10:57 PM | message detail |
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You think Samus's first two matches in 2k4 were legit? At all? Yeah, actually. It's not like she could help Fisher and Croft being overrated. --- Commit it to memory. |