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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 352

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cyko | Posted 8/29/2006 7:58:51 PM | message detail
I suspect Shadow was stronger, (though his 2k3 value is borked,

i do believe that "borked" has officially become my new favorite word.


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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
longbladeofhiko | Posted 8/29/2006 8:03:47 PM | message detail
Tag fo real this time. *Doubts Freeman*

WHO AM I DOUBT EL GORDON?
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
DeepHyren12 | Posted 8/29/2006 8:16:10 PM | message detail
Kairi gets a picture with a keyblade, and wins with 65%+ bookit.
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"Either experience makes concepts possible or concepts make experience possible." -- Immanuel Kant
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2006 8:17:00 PM | message detail
KH2 might have changed some things, but the Keyblade is and always will be a stupid-ass weapon.
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Commit it to memory.
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/29/2006 8:54:20 PM | message detail
Ahem.

NOTE: Last week Red Steel and GT from Ubi moved to November 2nd and this week Ubi advised that they would in fact be returning to their original ship date of Oct 26th. Read into that what you will.

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"Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120."
swirIdude | Posted 8/29/2006 8:58:42 PM | message detail
I am convinced Ubi Soft is in on this contest and wants to mess with Heroic Mario's mind.
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The *only* good thing about this contest is that Ceej might share with us the split between female/male nominations for Samus. ~creativename
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/29/2006 9:05:54 PM | message detail
taglicious
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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
TheCruelAngel | Posted 8/29/2006 9:32:38 PM | message detail

Well TP will probably be out by then. Hell if Zelda is major playable and has a sword, and the match comes out at just the right time, I fear for Samus. I'm not even kidding. With the SFF track record Samus has?


Ulti, you bastard! I called, banked on, and booked this long before the bracket was released!!
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/29/2006 9:40:21 PM | message detail
EL Gordon, heheh.



Or actually, like the cold and warm weather fronts, its the Loser Front, El Gordo. OLE!


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WiggedOut267 (Now 32.35% more... wigged out...) : Owned by Z1mmy Since 1987
Happily married to Alanna82 on VDay 2005
WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/29/2006 9:42:49 PM | message detail
Kairi gets a picture with a keyblade, and wins with 65%+ bookit.

If Kairi wants to increase her chances of winning, she better have a KH2 pic, which I assume she will.


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WiggedOut267 (Now 32.35% more... wigged out...) : Owned by Z1mmy Since 1987
Happily married to Alanna82 on VDay 2005
Eggplant Lord | Posted 8/29/2006 9:58:13 PM | message detail
I hate throwing things out that are completely unrelated to the current discussion solely for my advantage and convenience, but there seems to be no discussion over Yuna vs. Chun Li. Is it really so assured that Yuna will win?

Also, has anyone considered the possibility that Marle will actually perform well against Aeris? If it went as far as 45-55, I could believe it.

-=-
You. WILL. Eat. Healthily!
*Nails you with an assortment of vitamin-rich vegetables*
HaRRicH | Posted 8/29/2006 10:01:19 PM | message detail
FF7 > CT, Aeris in FF7 > Marle in CT, Aeris in FF:AC, KH1, and KH2 > Marle in...CC (maybe?), and probably Frog > Marle.

Marley has no chance, though I'm definitely interested to see how she does.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Janus5000 | Posted 8/29/2006 10:04:04 PM | message detail
Yuna did better on Ganondorf than Chun did on Bowser, and she's had a (small and slightly annoying) cameo in KHII since... so yeah. Auron/Alucard is the same way, and no one's discussing it either.

Though those two are both decent candidates for the obligatory unexpected upset match.

And Marle is well beyond so screwed.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/29/2006 10:06:56 PM | message detail
I don't like Yuna as one to judge one's strength against... but I guess it's the best we have for Marle.... still... I think she's got a shot at breaking 35%.


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WiggedOut267 (Now 32.35% more... wigged out...) : Owned by Z1mmy Since 1987
Happily married to Alanna82 on VDay 2005
HaRRicH | Posted 8/29/2006 10:08:53 PM | message detail
Yuna herself will be doing very good to get 35% on Aeris, and Yuna would beat Marle nicely.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Haste_2 | Posted 8/29/2006 10:15:53 PM | message detail
The absolute BEST I can see Marle doing against Aeris is being doubled. I think we could see a tripling or even a quadding, though, depending on the amount of SFF. I think there may be quite a bit of SFF here... Marle just isn't a popular character from CT. She's just an annoying teenage girl that can't (physically) attack worth beans...

Marle is to Crono as Amy Rose is to Sonic, pretty much.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, Z1mZum drinks punch and eats CAKE! ..I think."
AmazingKirby | Posted 8/29/2006 10:17:45 PM | message detail
People like Marle far more than Amy Rose, I'd say.
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caps
Eggplant Lord | Posted 8/29/2006 10:26:34 PM | message detail
Would everyone else take Yuna > Marle? I wouldn't, but that's likely due to my complete inexperience with stats and matches. If Crono is such a powerhouse, there has to be some reflection of that in some Chrono Trigger character(s), like with Vincent and Tifa.

Yuna and Tidus seem to have pretty underwhelming strength, which reminds me of my next question, which pertains to the relative strengths of Tidus and Squall, and whether there could be rSFF in that match.

===
<Mindless Shadow Hearts promotion goes here>
It never ends!
ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/29/2006 10:30:21 PM | message detail
By the way, in the battle royale


Cloud is so screwed.
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Everything's 10X better with a RKO and Orton pose. ~ Donkey111
Janus5000 | Posted 8/29/2006 10:39:55 PM | message detail
Well, duh. He's not Link.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/29/2006 10:42:16 PM | message detail
He's not Sephiroth either, and therefore shall not be finishing in 2nd, like Sephiroth will.
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Everything's 10X better with a RKO and Orton pose. ~ Donkey111
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/29/2006 10:46:20 PM | message detail
Cloud is so screwed.

So is everyone not named Link.

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"Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120."
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 8/29/2006 10:48:53 PM | message detail
Link is so screwed.
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
FastFalcon05 | Posted 8/29/2006 10:48:58 PM | message detail
KH2 might have changed some things, but the Keyblade is and always will be a stupid-ass weapon.

!

Full of such lies! First sub-zero, then the keyblade.

As for Chun-Li/Yuna, I actually picked Chun-Li on the go through the bracket for fun in five minutes. It was tricky picking her to win, but, it's not a match I'm sure I'll switch over to Yuna.
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
AmazingKirby | Posted 8/29/2006 10:49:08 PM | message detail
How convenient that the contest starts at poll 2499, or 2500, or 2501, depending on how badly I count.
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caps
HaRRicH | Posted 8/29/2006 10:55:05 PM | message detail
I have had KOS-MOS > Amy Rose confidently for awhile, but I just got to thinkin' about the rest of the Sonic crew and decided to research the matter, just in case -- this'll be good for you guyswho have Amy > KOS.


First of all, I looked at 2k4, the most recent year where all four main Sonic characters (barring Dr. Robotnik) had matches. Going by their x-stats (with the Mega Man adjustment), here's what we have for each character against Link 2k4:

Sonic - 33.56%
Shadow - 24.94%
Knuckles - 24.94%
Tails - 21.71%

Now, I'm a believer that -- thanks to a Viewtiful Joe pic -- Dante slightly under-performed against Sonic that year, thus making Tails look slightly weaker...but to each their own; the point is, there's your four strongest Sonic characters and they look fair enough. From there, the only other Sonic character we've ever seen in a contest is Dr. Robotnik, which was in the controversial Villain Contest:

Dr. Robotnik - 15.39%

That's probably closer to Amy's strength than what the other four show. It should be noted that we first saw the effects of Sonic and Knuckles boosting big last summer -- potentially boosting Shadow, Tails, Dr. Robotnik, and even the rest of the crew...potentially. That said, I hate to do this, but let's check out the only three (real old) PotD's we can really try to use to gauge Amy Rose:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=580
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=581
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=582

In the first poll, I know she's not in Sonic Spinball, S1, S3, S2, or S&K...I believe she was playable at times in SA and SA2, and I think her roles in the rest are small if not nonexistant. That is damaging. In the second and third polls, we have already seen how Dr. Robotnik faired in the Villain Contest (and if Seph really did under-perform in the Final Four or Championship, Dr. Robotnik is over-rated)...yet Amy is shown to have both less people to have her as a favorite and more people to have her as their most hated. Again, damaging.

I know that multi-option polls don't always mean much and games =/= characters, but that is some heavy evidence against her, even for antique polls like that -- they called Dr. Robotnik bombing, afterall (despite him winning his four-pack, heh), and they do show the other four doing good enough in the favorites while not getting embarrassed in the least favorites. Plus, what has she done to boost herself since then? One last thing...

KOS-MOS - 19.52%

...assuming Seph/Ganon is legit, Dr. Robotnik gets 39.42% on KOS-MOS, and he's in practically every Sonic game while having those two polls say he's more liked and less disliked than Amy, not to mention he's a classic...and again, that's if Seph/Ganon is legit -- I know everybody has their own theory on that one.


In short, I'm calling for KOS-MOS to break 65%...though Amy could get 45% against Mario.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/30/2006 12:11:46 AM | message detail
Do you mean to suggest, Harry, that Amy is stronger than Shadow?

I mean, I'm probably out of my league here, but Mario/Shadow 2K3 had Shadow with 45%. And Mario is obviously stronger now.

I'm just wondering is all?

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WiggedOut267 (Now 32.35% more... wigged out...) : Owned by Z1mmy Since 1987
Happily married to Alanna82 on VDay 2005
WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/30/2006 12:12:30 AM | message detail
And I forgot to add that I'm talking about 2003 Shadow, but I don't think Sonic Team will get that big a boost anyway.

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WiggedOut267 (Now 32.35% more... wigged out...) : Owned by Z1mmy Since 1987
Happily married to Alanna82 on VDay 2005
FastFalcon05 | Posted 8/30/2006 1:28:23 AM | message detail
*chuckles*

Pretty sure he was joking, but then again, you could be playing along, too.

Amy won't beat Kos-Mos, whereas Yoshi will beat Dante.
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
Draco1214 | Posted 8/30/2006 1:29:11 AM | message detail
Yoshi will lose to Dante. And he'll lose quite handily, too.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Owned by Z1mZum in the Best. Series. Ever. Guru Contest
transience | Posted 8/30/2006 2:32:00 AM | message detail
In short, I'm calling for KOS-MOS to break 65%...though Amy could get 45% against Mario.

nice one, and undeniable proof that Xenosaga > Mario Bros. what a snub.

I'll post these here for the archive's sake - I made a topic earlier, but I thought some people who just frequent this topic might like to comment. the top 10 upsets, as per the BOP:

10. Jill > Peach (9-28)
9. Sonic > Crono (9-26)
8. Claire > Kairi (14-23)
7. Zero > Kirby (13-21)
6. Crono > Samus (12-21)
5. Dante > Yoshi (14-23)
3. Celes > The Boss (15-22)
3. Luigi > Zero (15-22)
1. Phoenix Wright > Gordon Freeman (16-21)
1. Vincent Valentine > Ganondorf (16-21)
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
greatone10 | Posted 8/30/2006 3:22:29 AM | message detail
I can't believe that one of the matches tied for first is only being debated because of a couple of fads.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest.
Draco1214 | Posted 8/30/2006 3:25:19 AM | message detail
Well, there's a reason one of the fads exists.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Owned by Z1mZum in the Best. Series. Ever. Guru Contest
transience | Posted 8/30/2006 3:25:48 AM | message detail
that match reminds me of GTA/WC on so many levels. Phoenix is being dismissed completely by the stats people while the board sides with Phoenix.

personally, I think Phoenix has a great shot. I don't believe Gordon's worth 20% and would give Kefka a match. I'll stick with Freeman in my bracket, but if Phoenix won I wouldn't be floored.

that's gonna be an awesome day on the board.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
greatone10 | Posted 8/30/2006 3:27:39 AM | message detail
Yeah, but I don't think people would be debating this match if it was Lara Croft (who is right with Gordon in the 2k4 stats) vs. Phoenix Wright.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest.
transience | Posted 8/30/2006 3:28:45 AM | message detail
I bet there would still be some people that would pick Phoenix.. then again, I think we'd have PW supporters no matter who he was facing, assuming it's not a near-elite or something. I bet someone on the board takes him to beat Sora. I wouldn't be surprised at all.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
transience | Posted 8/30/2006 3:29:52 AM | message detail
speaking of which, Sora, an overseeded 1 seed, has such a predictable path. it sucks that he didn't get a good 4/5 opponent that could potentially give him a scare. he's just as wasted as Squall in my mind.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
greatone10 | Posted 8/30/2006 3:29:56 AM | message detail
Phoenix Wright is going to have to rely on an insane percentage of people who even bought his game to even do damage to any respectable opponent.

There was like 30 copies of his game even made.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest.
transience | Posted 8/30/2006 3:32:07 AM | message detail
key word: respectable. fad or not, GF is still fodder.

I look at it like this: people are going to look at the match and see an anime character with a cool design vs. a boring guy with glasses. if you didn't care either way, which would you vote for?
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
Draco1214 | Posted 8/30/2006 3:32:09 AM | message detail
Sales really don't matter. IIRC, Panzer Dragoon Saga got more votes than sales in its match.

Seeing as how this is a match of fodder, the one with more casual appeal is going to win. The majority of voters don't care about either of them.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Owned by Z1mZum in the Best. Series. Ever. Guru Contest
greatone10 | Posted 8/30/2006 3:35:35 AM | message detail
I define respectable as not being Luca Blight-Manny Calavera obscure.

As far as design goes, I will not bank on match pictures and design until I see them.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest.
transience | Posted 8/30/2006 3:37:17 AM | message detail
feel free to make the most one-sided match picture for Gordon Freeman ever. I'd probably still give Phoenix the picture advantage.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
Draco1214 | Posted 8/30/2006 3:40:17 AM | message detail
And, by the way, just how badly has Phoenix's game sold? All I know is that it sells out its shipments within a week. Granted, I'd wager on its shipments being quite small, but they can't be as bad as some people have said. The way some are talking, you'd think it sold like Panzer Dragoon Saga or something.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Owned by Z1mZum in the Best. Series. Ever. Guru Contest
greatone10 | Posted 8/30/2006 3:40:44 AM | message detail
Panzer Dragoon Saga got more votes than sales in its match.

Panzer Dragoon also has a fairly popular Xbox game to cause that kind of occurance. Phoenix Wright just has his one game and whatever intagibles the Objection fad will bring, which will only amount to anything if the match is close.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest.
Draco1214 | Posted 8/30/2006 3:45:53 AM | message detail
By the way, I found this message from the PW board to be quite funny:

Poltergust
Posted 8/29/2006 9:31:05 AM
message detail Gordan Freeman... Oh! I remember now! He's that guy from Half-Life!

That took me 5 days to remember who this guy is...

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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Owned by Z1mZum in the Best. Series. Ever. Guru Contest
therealmnm | Posted 8/30/2006 3:46:02 AM | message detail
Meh, at least Phoenix Wright has the advantage of having his name as the game. Like I said before, you don't have to have bought or even have played the game to be aware enough about him to give him the vote over Gordon Freeman. I could see plenty of DS gamers giving him the vote just off of that. Even though I've never played it, and don't care at all about the fad, just knowing about the game is enough to give him the vote.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
therealmnm | Posted 8/30/2006 3:48:16 AM | message detail
But then again, Tina Armstrong, Max Payne, and Sam Fisher would all probably kill Phoenix Wright (Max Payne is slightly debatable right now though). I just wouldn't be surprised if Gordon lost in a squeaker or something.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
transience | Posted 8/30/2006 3:52:54 AM | message detail
Freeman will probably win, but I think the whole 60% thing stays true. I just can't see Freeman doubling up anybody.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
longbladeofhiko | Posted 8/30/2006 4:27:01 AM | message detail
Me and Draco got to talkin last night, and I've changed a few picks due to that conversation >_>

Mainly just Dante > Yoshi. Everything else is sorta under consideration.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
XIII_rocks | Posted 8/30/2006 5:12:27 AM | message detail
The Boss to be a bit weaker than Big Boss.

...How? Big Boss has the old-school appeal, which is fairly small when it comes to Metal Gear, and a small amount of people who connect him with the protagonist of MGS3. The Boss was easily the most well-received new character in that game. Ocelot might be more powerful than her on balance, but he's not exactly...new.
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