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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 351

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XIII_rocks | Posted 8/29/2006 9:38:25 AM | message detail
My Royale bracket is cutter cutter right now - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Samus, Sonic.

Yes, Sonic. Right now, I see his toughest match as being Ganon - if it's Vince, Sonic beats Crono and Megaman before losing spectacularly to Samus.
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KingBartz | Posted 8/29/2006 9:40:45 AM | message detail
I stand corrected.

And Sonic would easily outlast Samus seeing as she will get SFF'd into the ground. Samus will be last no matter what.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2006 9:44:08 AM | message detail
Yeah, I can't understand the logic of having Sonic getting enough of a boost to beat Mega Man/Crono, but not having enough of an independent fanbase to garner more votes in the Royale than freaking Samus.

Though I've got a bad feeling that she's going to bite me in the ass and make it to the second or third round, on principle.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/29/2006 9:46:08 AM | message detail
There is absolutely no way possible that Samus doesn't go out 6th in the Battle Royale. No way in HELL.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2006 9:49:00 AM | message detail
Obviously there's a reason why I stated that it's on principle, but the fact that Mega Man was significantly SFFed by Link while Samus was not bugs me (despite me taking MM over Samus due to SFF with little reservation). If Mega Man edges out Crono -- and it's not impossible, the two were relatively close last year -- if the fanbase splits just right, Samus could outlast the Blue Bomber.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 8/29/2006 9:54:38 AM | message detail
That's why I said the my Royale picks were cookie cutter - they go precisely in order of strength >_>

That said, I'm still sticking with Samus. I've changed picks in the last two contests and been screwed over (Knuckles/Magus, Halo/Castlevania). I'm not letting it happen again, for better or worse.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/29/2006 9:55:52 AM | message detail
Picking Magus > Vincent after I preached Vincent winning his division for weeks made me feel SO STUPID.
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Everything's 10X better with a RKO and Orton pose. ~ Donkey111
Redtooth | Posted 8/29/2006 10:02:57 AM | message detail
You know, I just realized. It seems no matter who the female winner is, they are bound to get last place in the royale. I mean, the only girl anyone actually believes will win is Samus. The only girls who could even potentially beat her are Aeris, Tifa and Zelda (and all these are huge longshots too). And all three of those would get themselved SFFed just as badly as Samus in the Royale. So I'm wondering, what female in this contest would you take to last at least one round of the Battle Royale? Is there even one?

And with that subject in mind, what kind of magic would it take for someone other then Samus to take the female bracket?

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KingBartz | Posted 8/29/2006 10:09:43 AM | message detail
Zelda and Tifa have slim chances, but Samus is pretty much a lock

Anybody with enough strength to make the BR would be badly SFF'd, so the females will always lose.

Chun-li, maybe. But she's not nearly strong enough to make it.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2006 10:11:24 AM | message detail
I'd honestly consider anyone beating Samus in the female bracket an even bigger upset than Sephiroth losing in the Villains Contest. I don't even consider it...
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/29/2006 10:14:47 AM | message detail
My Royale bracket is cutter cutter right now - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Samus, Sonic.

Yes, Sonic. Right now, I see his toughest match as being Ganon - if it's Vince, Sonic beats Crono and Megaman before losing spectacularly to Samus.


The stupid thing there isn't having Sonic win your bracket, it's that he goes out first round.

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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/29/2006 10:15:14 AM | message detail
That would be logical, of course. But I doubt the boost will make as much of a difference for Cloud as it would for Tifa or Vincent because he's so established and known already. But like I said I think it will do a lot even for him (I'd take him over Link for that if it weren't for TP).

I understand the point of him being so established, but it's just that movie revolved so much around him and placed him in the best action scenes that it's hard to imagine anyone else get a bigger boost. Cloud was the clear highlight of the movie and everyone else, by comparison, was just there to look nice.

The difference here being that it's hardly optional, and you're "forced" to see Vincent. For Vincent, I always see room for improvement in the recognition factor.

Well, I would wager that Vincent doesn't suffer too much from being optional on this site. I believe there is d hsomething close a 80%+ play rate of GameFAQs voters, not to mention it's their favorite game.

DoC does mostly the same of course (and better) but AC is a movie and actually rather good. The fact that it's a movie matters in that you don't need a PS 2 to play it and GC/Xboxers have a chance to see what all the fuss is about.

It's kind of hard for me to imagine someone who was not a fan of FFVII or who hadn't played the game before being interested in the movie. Perhaps if they were shown it by someone who bought the movie or downloaded it, but them being interested without that pushing? I have my doubts. I think it had more potential to change some fans opinions of characters -- Tifa or Cloud, for example -- more than I think it made new fans. The whole "strengthening the fanbase" type of deal.

This shouldn't account for too much, but it's there. A lol anecdotal story is that I watched this film with a friend of mine (savage Nintendo/Anime fan) ane loved it.

Yeah. Advent Children is the type of movie that you could show to just about anyone and they would at least get some enjoyment out of the action sequences. Square did a fantastic job of doing those.

For Vincent it's just.. not.

This may be just me, but I think a lot of my doubt on Vincent's boost comes from thinking that Vincent's role in that movie was hardly all that noteworthy. I liked him, and still do, coming into the movie, and he didn't do much at all to raise my opinion of him. He played his role that he did in FFVII by being more stoic. I'm not really sure that one extra scene of him saving Cloud in the Forgotten Capital and then talking to him is going to do that much, but we'll see.

Ah but what for the people that didn't really like Vincent? Or didn't know him? And I know Vincent doesn't have a different personality in AC, but he does have more of it.

I doubt AC would be enough to take someone from "dislike" to "like." Maybe in the case of Cloud or Tifa, but not Vincent.

I'm expecting a big influx to come from people who never been to gameFAQs though, or at the very least don't frequent it. To the world, the PS3 is still a lot more of a deal than the Wii, I think.

I'm not sure about that. It's tough to gauge the mass public, but the Wii has been dominating polls all over the Internet, from company websites to gaming fan sites, since E3 was over. Everyone's focus right now seems to be glued in on Wii, and it doesn't help when the PS3 has had tons of negativity surrounding it in the media along with a poor E3 showing.
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/29/2006 10:15:45 AM | message detail
55% on just Cloud is something I really don't see happening, but I supposed it could. I thought you said over Cloud and Sephiroth though, which really is a whole different thing. It should've said "55% over both Cloud and Sephiroth?" rather thhan "55% over both Cloud and Link?" which addmitedly doesn't make any sense.

Oh, 55% on Cloud and Sephiroth? Heh. No, no -- I was talking about just the final match with what will likely be Cloud, unless Sephiroth places second...then you're looking at a brutal beating in the finals. I just think Twilight Princess is going to make Link into a monster, even more of a monster than he already is. It's tough to imagine Link stronger than he already is, but it should be something great after he adds Twilight Princess to his impressive catalogue of appearances.

And I really wouldn't go calling TP the biggest release of the year by far. Zelda and FF have always been close to each other hype-wise, sales-wise, with FF actually having the better track record for sales.

It's hard to imagine any Final Fantasy released this generation being comparable to Twilight Princess in hype. Whenever I think of Twilight Princess, that first trailer being unveiled with the entire crowd screaming their heads off and giving a standing ovation at the end of it comes to mind...and then it's leading the way for Nintendo's new console. And it's Zelda. And yeah.

Of course, TP is also launching with the Wii which makes it bigger, just not by a lot.

Heh. Interestingly, Twilight Princess is the first Zelda game to ever be a launch title; it's also the first Zelda game expected to get a Teen rating. Lots o' firsts!

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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/29/2006 10:17:41 AM | message detail
You know it's contest season when HM is constantly writing page and a half responses to people. >_>

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KingBartz | Posted 8/29/2006 10:18:39 AM | message detail
<3
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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/29/2006 10:19:30 AM | message detail
There's no way Link is breaking 40% with Cloud and Sephiroth in the same poll.

I would bet Link pushes 45% in this very poll.

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"Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120."
Haste_2 | Posted 8/29/2006 10:21:19 AM | message detail
I think Crono will really blow it in the Battle Royale (assuming he makes it). He has Cloud, Link and Sephiroth to compete with (two of them being Square), and Crono's not a common "favorite" character in the first place. Samus may be SFFable, but I can see a decent number of people being stubborn with Samus. I'd give Samus a decent shot at edging out Crono. I'm more inclined that say that Samus beats out Crono than I would to say that Crono beats out Sephiroth.

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KingBartz | Posted 8/29/2006 10:23:00 AM | message detail
Well, considering Crono has a 0% chance of beating out sephy, you speak truly.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2006 10:23:36 AM | message detail
Nah, if Crono makes it he's more or less got 5th place locked. You don't need much more than to be the main character of someone's favorite game to be their 'favorite', and while that's something Crono has in spades, Samus doesn't.
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/29/2006 10:23:54 AM | message detail
I don't know... I've seen a lot more rabid CT fans then Metroid fans around these parts, plus we know Samus is able to get SFFed to all hell and back, and that a lot of her strength comes from people outside the normal Nintendo fanbase, but with all those other characters in there, she'll lose even some of that. With Crono we have no idea if he can get rocked with SFF like that.

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Kaxon | Posted 8/29/2006 10:25:56 AM | message detail
That's what I was thinking.... The Sephiroth fans vote for Sephiroth no matter who he's against, which is why he still does damn well against Cloud.... so Cloud's already losing half of his support right there. Then take into account what Cloud will be losing from Link... I really don't think it's that big of a stretch for Sephiroth to out-last Cloud.

It's not that big of a stretch. I could even see Cloud going out 4th with some bad luck. Link/Mario/Cloud/Sephiroth - Link and Mario combine for more than 50% of the vote because this place has become lol NintendoFAQs. Sephiroth beats out Cloud because of a bit of "hero SFF", while Mario beats out Cloud because the fanbase he's splitting with Link is larger than the one Cloud and Sephiroth are splitting. I'm not expecting this to happen, but I think it's possible.

If that were to happen, Sephiroth would look damn good in the round of three. He'd easily win a three way poll against Link and Mario. He'd still lose the final, obviously.
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KingBartz | Posted 8/29/2006 10:26:31 AM | message detail
The thing is, Crono isn't easily SFFable. He's like CATS or MC; he has a strong diehard fanbase.

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plasmabeam | Posted 8/29/2006 10:41:23 AM | message detail
Could someone explain why Chun-Li is so heavily favored over Lara? I thought Lara would squeak that one out, ever since the bracket was released. I honestly don't think the casuals know or care about Chun-Li. She's a supporting character in a fighting game, while Lara was at one point the icon of female game characters. Sure, she fell apart for a while until recently, but I guarantee she has more casual appeal than Chun-Li.

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Redtooth | Posted 8/29/2006 10:42:25 AM | message detail
If anyone has a chance to be versatile in the Royale, I see it as Crono. I mean, he seems to have the most potential for SFF. There's already two swordsmen who will outdo him, there's the square SFF, the hero SFF and the nintendo SFF. That's a lot to deal with, arguably more then any other character that is(or can be) in the Royale. Yet, Crono has proven to have a diehard fanbase which constantly supports him. Will that be enough to stop from being crushed however? I see that as a possibility. If he makes it out of round 1, Then we'd assume Link/Mario and Cloud/Seph would draw votes from each other. But Crono might not lie in either of these. He might lose votes from both sides, and end up doing no better then his first round pass. But maybe, just maybe, him being slightly different then the others will allow him to hold his own. If Crono can make it to the Royale in the first place, I see him sitting at 4th, if not better with some luck.

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Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7
HaRRicH | Posted 8/29/2006 10:47:55 AM | message detail
The thing is, Crono isn't easily SFFable. He's like CATS or MC; he has a strong diehard fanbase.

We've never seen Crono against Cloud or Sephiroth, some of us think Vincent over-performed against Crono for various reasons, didn't seem to SFF Magus much, then he probably SFF'd Zidane and definitely SFF'd Kefka. I don't see why he's suddenly difficult to SFF in such a crazy royal -- FF7 is a noticably bigger game here than CT, and there are more reasons to like Cloud and Sephiroth (not to mention more games to get the chance to like them) than Crono, even if you still prefer Crono to either one or even both.

I've got Samus going out first instead of Crono despite Samus > Crono in my bracket, but I could really see Crono leaving first, too.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/29/2006 10:48:54 AM | message detail
I have the male winner outlasting Mario, personally. The male winner being Crono, of course.
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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/29/2006 10:54:00 AM | message detail
I have the male winner outlasting Mario, personally.

I don't think that's happening, myself. I doubt Crono's ability to outlast Mario.

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"Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120."
Haste_2 | Posted 8/29/2006 10:55:33 AM | message detail
You know, when you think about it...if the Top 4 is:

Mario
Sephiroth
Cloud
Link

Do you REALLY think Mario would lose that...? I mean the other three have the blades and are RPGish... In fact, I can utterly guarantee that if it's down to Mario and FOUR RPGish swordsmen (+Crono) Mario isn't the one to go out.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2006 10:56:07 AM | message detail
For the sake of argument, if Snake made it could you see him outlasting Mario (or heck, even Samus?). There's always Sephiroth/Liquid to think about...but heck, we haven't even seen Snake go up against Clinkeroth yet.
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/29/2006 11:05:32 AM | message detail
Snake would easily outlast Samus, Crono, Mega Man, or Sonic. He -might- be able to beat out another after that, but I don't know...

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Kaxon | Posted 8/29/2006 11:08:35 AM | message detail
Crono's not a common "favorite" character in the first place

In my opinion, this is just another form of the "no one really likes Crono" thinking that's been proven wrong time and again. Crono is a favorite character. I won't say it's impossible for him to go out first in the battle royale, since it's a completely untested format, but I highly doubt it. I think he's more likely to place 4th than 6th, although neither is terribly likely.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 8/29/2006 11:11:38 AM | message detail
You people are talking like Crono is a lock for the win!
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plasmabeam | Posted 8/29/2006 11:14:43 AM | message detail
Name 5 good things about Crono besides "He wields a sword and saves the world". You enter commands and watch him attack. Like Link, Crono is a mute, but you at least battle as Link. You don't execute Crono's attacks, and he has nothing to say.

Let's try this. Call the game "Frog Trigger", and make Crono a supporting character. Would anyone care about Crono then? Only a fool who's obsessed with giving commands to sword-wielding mutes.

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Redtooth | Posted 8/29/2006 11:18:04 AM | message detail
Well, Crono is my pick, so of course it's a lock =P

But yea, if Megaman, Sonic or Snake makes it to the Royale, then I have no doubt they would get at least 4th. They may not have as huge a fanbase as the others, but they're votes won't ne split. I really can't see any of those three getting last in a Royale format. With all likelyhood they can outdo Mario and Samus with Link drawing too many votes. When(if) it comes down to Link, Seph, Cloud and MM/Sonic/Snake, I could easily see one of them taking out whichever of the FF7 characters gets the low end of the split. After that though, they'd get crushed so massively by the Nintendo/Square vote draw.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2006 11:18:45 AM | message detail
While he isn't much of a character, Crono just exudes coolness. There's no doubt in my mind he'd be very popular even if he wasn't the MAIN character of the game, that just helps that much more.

I mean, despite Cloud having more character development than Link, I'd imagine that most of his votes come from things like the coolness of Omnislash and his awesome style than anything else.
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plasmabeam | Posted 8/29/2006 11:20:57 AM | message detail
I think Crono's name being on the box contributes a lot to his popularity. To each his own, I suppose.

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~Jacksonville Jaguars~
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2006 11:22:37 AM | message detail
I can't see 'Name on the Box' helping out that much. I mean, what happens if you rename Metroid "Samus Saga" or Metal Gear Solid "Solid Snake"?
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2006 11:23:13 AM | message detail
Plus, it's not even technically his name! No matter how many of his fans poorly spell it!
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XIII_rocks | Posted 8/29/2006 11:27:43 AM | message detail
To be fair, it might help quite a bit. Back when I was young and uneducated about games (as in, early-to mid Summer 2004), I was so confused about who these characters were that I voted the ones that I knew, whether I liked them or not. So, if I had heard of "Samus Saga" quite a bit, and she was up against, so, Crono (who I knew nothing about), I would vote Samus.

All too often, the ignorant many outnumber the intelligent few.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 8/29/2006 11:29:07 AM | message detail
*Say, not so.
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LinkLegend27 | Posted 8/29/2006 11:29:32 AM | message detail
Does anyone see Amy Rose beating KOS-MOS? Or is that just not a possibility?
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Big Bob | Posted 8/29/2006 11:31:56 AM | message detail
A few people see it, including me, but most just assume KOS-MOS is a lock.
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WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/29/2006 11:32:30 AM | message detail
I think Crono's name being on the box contributes a lot to his popularity. To each his own, I suppose.

Possible, but what about Chrono Cross, I would hope that doesn't help Crono all that much, but it probably does.... since a lot of people have played CT and not CC.

*CC SPOILERS*












Though, Crono is in CC if you want to talk about that, but only at the very end (unless you believe those ridiculous Guile = Magus claims and the liuke) and even then he's just a kid (you're supposes to guess he's Crono, the game never flatout tells you) and obviously, you don't play as him, so he's just a plot detail for a few minutes.









*END SPOILERS*




Anyway, Crono did win the Mario/Crono matchup in 2004, while the match was always close (before 2005). So from 2002 to 2004, we can assume that Crono changed his strength nearly exactly as the same rate as Mario was changing his own. Mario got a lot stronger from 04 to 05, but also probably from 03 to 04. So Crono must've too (I mean... he did beat Mario in 04....). Why Crono lost in '05 would be attributed to Mario rising SO DAMN MUCH, and Crono dropping (maybe), just a little. Crono only lost 2-3%, which if you consider Mario's gain, maybe Crono didn't even drop that much period... if at all.... still... I bet he did drop a tad from 04 to 05.... he beat Mega Man cleanly, and there's no reason why he shouldn't again. If Crono dropped, I'm sure Mega Man did too (He's done nearly nothing). And since Mega Man = Sonic, Crono can beat Sonic as well as Mega Man.

I rest my case.


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Redtooth | Posted 8/29/2006 11:34:00 AM | message detail
Yea, it's not like there's some sort of writing test allowing people to vote. If any sort of Intelligence test were issued, they only character who would even stand a chance in these contests is this guy:

http://www.mobygames.com/images/covers/large/996187790-00.jpg

And I agree Crono looks cool, but I never imagined the way he looks would actually help him. I always thought there were legions of anti-DBZ people who would anti-vote a twig if Toriyama had drawn it. I mean, I'm sure Crono gets at least a few votes for resembling the DBZ guys, but I'd bet he loses just as many for the same reason...

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Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2006 11:34:32 AM | message detail
...that might be one of the worst arguments I've ever seen. And this is me being nice here. <_<
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2006 11:34:55 AM | message detail
That was to WiggumFan <_<;
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WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/29/2006 11:35:54 AM | message detail
This is why I don't speak out much =\


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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2006 11:36:50 AM | message detail
I'm not trying to be mean here -- and heck, Crono should beat Sonic and Mega Man. But...what you just said makes no sense.
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Redtooth | Posted 8/29/2006 11:38:55 AM | message detail
...And here I was, ready to redefend my position, but that statement wasn't too me. yay =X

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Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2006 11:40:32 AM | message detail
Don't worry, that's a pretty bad argument as well! <_<
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