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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 351

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Guess how many teens | Posted 8/29/2006 3:27:53 AM | message detail
I had Auron when I was making my bracket and I didn't even think about that pick, it seemed a lock to me. But when I was checking it again with the X-stats with me it just seemed...weird. I thought I had underestimated MC<-<
But no way I'm picking MC.

I was the only one who said MC would win MC vs Frog.
And I'm still pissed about the fact I didn't ask 8 friends to vote frog <_< :D.
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I got owned Z1mZum, the BSE Guru Champion!
consolefreak | Posted 8/29/2006 3:49:47 AM | message detail
I would expect Cloud to have the largest boost of any character within the movie. The whole thing revolves entirely around him from beginning until end, and they make sure to give him numerous action scenes. But I'm not entirely sure how much I am expecting him to gain from the release. Something, certainly, but probably not anything big. I think his KH2/AC roles may combine to perhaps catch him up to Link.

That would be logical, of course. But I doubt the boost will make as much of a difference for Cloud as it would for Tifa or Vincent because he's so established and known already. But like I said I think it will do a lot even for him (I'd take him over Link for that if it weren't for TP).

It wouldn't really be comparing their respective characters as much as their roles. Vincent is just a cool character; he was that way in FFVII and he's that way in AC. But as far as his prominence? It's actually not much outside of most of the cast. He has one scene separate from that group...and it's mostly just him talking.

I loved that scene, actually. It depicts Vincent as the badass he is. Just like in FFVII. The difference here being that it's hardly optional, and you're "forced" to see Vincent. For Vincent, I always see room for improvement in the recognition factor. DoC does mostly the same of course (and better) but AC is a movie and actually rather good. The fact that it's a movie matters in that you don't need a PS 2 to play it and GC/Xboxers have a chance to see what all the fuss is about.

This shouldn't account for too much, but it's there. A lol anecdotal story is that I watched this film with a friend of mine (savage Nintendo/Anime fan) and he loved it.

He shares a lot of scenes with the other characters. The fight with Bahamut-Sin is shared between him, Yuffie, Cid, Barret, and Red XIII/Cait Sith. He didn't really stand out much in the fight either -- and all of them were outclassed by Cloud's appearance shortly after.

Yeah he was pretty useless there. Even Cid was more awesome. Thing is that for Cid and the others this fight was pretty much their only time in the spotlight doing anything. For Vincent it's just.. not.

For someone who already likes Vincent, a large number of voters, I doubt AC would do much to really raise their opinion of Vincent moreso than the other characters. When you think of the characters that shine in the movie, Cloud, Sephiroth and Tifa come to mind. Vincent enters as a distant fourth...and that's just of the main cast. Rufus, Reno and Rude stole plenty of spotlight themselves. Vincent just is rather out done when it comes to the movie. That's why I wouldn't really expect that much from it in his case.

Ah but what for the people that didn't really like Vincent? Or didn't know him? And I know Vincent doesn't have a different personality in AC, but he does have more of it.


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"The blood of the weak shall be the ink with which we scribe great Yawgmoth's glorious name." - Stronghold architect, journal.
consolefreak | Posted 8/29/2006 3:49:58 AM | message detail
The PlayStation 3 is not nearly as big of a deal as it might have been pre-E3. The multiple polls taken here have shown that GameFAQs voters have little interest in the PS3 right now. That may change as time goes on, but it will only have been out for the final two days of the contest, meaning that its importance in affecting matches should not be really taken into consideration too much. What it, combined with Wii, may do is to increase the amount of people coming to the site during those days to get news or whatever.

I'm expecting a big influx to come from people who never been to gameFAQs though, or at the very least don't frequent it. To the world, the PS3 is still a lot more of a deal than the Wii, I think.

Final Fantasy XII will need to bring an influx of Square fans to the site in order to help Cloud out. The problem is that it is competing with the Wii and Twilight Princess releasing along with the overall site preference toward Nintendo. I'm uncertain of what kind of effect we'll see FFXII have this year, but I think TP is already bigger due to the site's preference and how hyped the two games are. Twilight Princess it the biggest release this year, by far, and that applies both here and everywhere else. I suppose we'll see though. I could see TP making Link completely untouchable for the rest of his time in these contests, as he will always have more games releasing in the future to help increase or sustain his popularity. 55% on Cloud doesn't seem like much of a stretch to me considering just what kind of game Link is getting.

55% on just Cloud is something I really don't see happening, but I supposed it could. I thought you said over Cloud and Sephiroth though, which really is a whole different thing. It should've said "55% over both Cloud and Sephiroth?" rather thhan "55% over both Cloud and Link?" which addmitedly doesn't make any sense.

And I really wouldn't go calling TP the biggest release of the year by far. Zelda and FF have always been close to each other hype-wise, sales-wise, with FF actually having the better track record for sales.

Of course, TP is also launching with the Wii which makes it bigger, just not by a lot.

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"The blood of the weak shall be the ink with which we scribe great Yawgmoth's glorious name." - Stronghold architect, journal.
consolefreak | Posted 8/29/2006 5:48:31 AM | message detail
I've been thinking about KH2, and how it's not doing very inspiring in the top 50 right now. Does anyone think the EU release will do something about this? I think KH2 may be claiming the top spot when it releases September 29th.

This could affect the contest somewhat, for example the release would be just over a week after Vincent - Ganondorf (KH2's EU release would account for very little towards Vincent, but it could be enough in that match nonetheless).
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"The blood of the weak shall be the ink with which we scribe great Yawgmoth's glorious name." - Stronghold architect, journal.
XIII_rocks | Posted 8/29/2006 6:39:42 AM | message detail
If Alyx Vance ended up beating Lara Croft but Gordon Freeman lost to Phoenix Wright I would never stop laughing.

The opposite has to happen >_> I'm starting to worry about Alyx having read up on her role in HL2.

Oh, did you guys hear? The PS3 version is being packaged with Episodes 1 and 2, Team Fortress 2 and some minigame called Portal.
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Hi-ho, Hi-ho, Z1m Zum, Z1m Zum...our guru champ.
_Harmonica_ | Posted 8/29/2006 6:47:41 AM | message detail
From consolefreak | Posted 8/29/2006 3:48:31 PM
I've been thinking about KH2, and how it's not doing very inspiring in the top 50 right now. Does anyone think the EU release will do something about this? I think KH2 may be claiming the top spot when it releases September 29th.

This could affect the contest somewhat, for example the release would be just over a week after Vincent - Ganondorf (KH2's EU release would account for very little towards Vincent, but it could be enough in that match nonetheless).


September 29th isn't the real date. Square announced in Leipzig that the release would happen in September/October 2006.

http://kh2.co.uk/
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Harmonica
Not even Midgar Zolom stands a chance against Guru winner Z1mZum!
_Lagoona_ | Posted 8/29/2006 6:52:23 AM | message detail
.Umh, shy question: is it too late to sign up for the Guru Challenge already? If not, I'd like to participate, as I did the last few contests...

*hopes for an early KH2 release* (wog.ch says it's 27 sept.)

And I don't think the European release will have a big influence...
---
.Nobody's perfect. I'm nobody.
And I got still owned by Z1mZum, THE BSE Guru.
consolefreak | Posted 8/29/2006 7:23:18 AM | message detail
I have to ask, since I can't keep these things apart and totally missed it for the series contest. The big list we're signing up for in the stats topic, is that for the guru contest? Or the BOP? And is the guru contest the thing where you predict the exact percentages? I remember finding a "guru" topic and you have to enter in a team, correct? But I can't find that topic anymore. And what exactly is the "prophet" challenge?

Also, which is the contest where the winner gets to choose a nom? Or is that no longer being done?

September 29th isn't the real date. Square announced in Leipzig that the release would happen in September/October 2006.

I did not know that. I hope it'll be in time for Vincent - Ganondorf, as that's the only match I can see it making any difference.

And I don't think the European release will have a big influence...

Neither do I. But big influences aren't always necessary to make a difference.
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"The blood of the weak shall be the ink with which we scribe great Yawgmoth's glorious name." - Stronghold architect, journal.
Jmast7 | Posted 8/29/2006 7:26:10 AM | message detail
I have to ask, since I can't keep these things apart and totally missed it for the series contest. The big list we're signing up for in the stats topic, is that for the guru contest? Or the BOP? And is the guru contest the thing where you predict the exact percentages? I remember finding a "guru" topic and you have to enter in a team, correct? But I can't find that topic anymore. And what exactly is the "prophet" challenge?

I would like clairification on this as well, along with info on where to post the picks, please! ^_^
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"I've tried 'em all, I really have, and the only church that truly feeds the soul, day in, day out, is the Church of Baseball." - Annie Savoy
XIII_rocks | Posted 8/29/2006 7:27:05 AM | message detail
The Oracle challenge is the percentage challenge, the signups in here were for the Guru challenge, and the BOP is open to anybody.
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Hi-ho, Hi-ho, Z1m Zum, Z1m Zum...our guru champ.
XIII_rocks | Posted 8/29/2006 7:27:32 AM | message detail
And the "choose a nom" thing won't be done until the next "Spring" contest, if at all.
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Hi-ho, Hi-ho, Z1m Zum, Z1m Zum...our guru champ.
consolefreak | Posted 8/29/2006 7:56:05 AM | message detail
So what is the guru contest? Just posting your bracket? How is it different from the BOP?

Thanks.
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"The blood of the weak shall be the ink with which we scribe great Yawgmoth's glorious name." - Stronghold architect, journal.
TRE Public Account | Posted 8/29/2006 8:14:54 AM | message detail
The Guru Contest is a large scale sig bet. A few days before the contest starts a topics will be put up to collect brackets from the guru contest participants. At the end of the contest, the person with the highest contest score wins. The losers all have to put the winners name in their sig for two weeks.

Added _Lagoona_.

1 - UltimaterializerX
2 - Team Rocket Elite
3 - Ngamer64
4 - ChichiriMuyo
5 - Explicit Hairy Balls
6 - transience
7 - Master Moltar
8 - Mac Arrowny
9 - dethfdddddh
10 - Draco1214
11 - arkenaga
12 - Yoshifan823
13 - MasterofHunters
14 - Z1mZum
15 - Shivan Reincarnated
16 - MegatokyoEd
17 - DomaDragoon
18 - Janus5000
19 - Applekidjosh
20 - BlAcK TuRtLe
21 - bobeta
22 - greatone
23 - NewLib
24 - Big Bob
25 - HaRRicH
26 - meche313
27 - MarioSuperstar
28 - RockMFR 5
29 - cavalier lowen
30 - Bobby200614
31 - junglebob22
32 - Heroic Mario
33 - yoblazer33
34 - trizob the hedgehog
35 - Aprosenf
36 - MoogleKupo141
37 - voltch
38 - XxSoulxX, yo
39 - Lieutenant Kettch
40 - A worlds envy
41 - Osfan
42 - ff6man
43 - rpgapzx
44 - Viviff
45 - expaniol
46 - Red Sox 777
47 - ps2rulezzz
48 - cyko
49 - jonthomson
50 - jeevesthemole
51 - Luis_Sera89
52 - Phediuk
53 - FFDragon
54 - Vile Requiem
55 - charmander6000
56 - Radix
57 - Tediz247
58 - Brett with Atreyu
59 - Yesmar
60 - shadow8021
61 - Jman_gamerX8
62 - Snip Snip Now
63 - Tirofog
64 - LuniNutz99
65 - Zylo the wolf
66 - Kaxon
67 - KingBartz
68 - longbladeofhiko
69 - Dekar TKB
70 - spikevegeta
71 - Azp2k32
72 - Ori
73 - CountCrazy007
74 - Lopen
75 - Chinballz
76 - Soniclink15
77 - ccbfan
78 - Fett0001
79 - Dark115
80 - Dilated Chemist
81 - Steve Illumina
82 - outsider920
83 - ExThaNemesis
84 - HeroicGammaRay
85 - RPGuy96
86 - Pathetique
87 - SonicRaptor
88 - swirldude
89 - TheRye
90 - Steinershocker
91 - XIII is sexy
92 - Smurf
93 - freac
94 - Redtooth
95 - FastFalcon05
96 - Rufus Shinra 18
97 - _Harmonica_
98 - Nintendo Wiii
99 - Tjian
100 - Sephirot1
101 - plasmabeam
102 - SephirothG
103 - Tai
104 - WHAT THE CRUNK ED BELLIS
105 - King Morgoth
106 - dragoontheguy
107 - outback
108 - Dunkeroo23
109 - canadiancatcher
110 - stingers135
111 - Tidus My Boy
112 - Guess how many Teens
113 - Prometheus321
114 - BeTheMan
115 - Haste2
116 - Read_Only_Thx
117 - KleenexTissue50
118 - daverath
119 - Mithrandir1331
120 - ScorpionX3
121 - perdevious
122 - ExquisiteSamurai
123 - Buzzup
124 - Jmast7
125 - GrapefruitKing
126 - cavedog0/ThatsRidiculous
127 - andaca
128 - Sess
129 - Giggsalot
130 - Consolefreak
131 - Tsunami70
132 - Xuxon
133 - MasterMage119
134 - ObscureMammoth
135 - Brett with Atreyu
136 - MarkSmith
137 - ChidoriNoJutsu
138 - ZoneOftheEnders
139 - Cokes
140 - DaruniaTheGoron
141 - MoogleKupo141 Again
142 - RPGGamer0
143 - Mister Mario
144 - Ringworm
145 - Sir Chris
146 - AlecTrevelyan006
147 - WiggumFan267
148 - th3l3fty
149 - Ayvuir
150 - Pats D
151 - _Lagoona_
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
Haste_2 | Posted 8/29/2006 8:45:26 AM | message detail
Here's how the Battle Royale would go if everything went EXACTLY by the x-stats of SC2K5 (and no SFF). At the very least this might help you start to visualize what you think the actual results might be after taking into account SFFing, favorite-voting (i.e. YOSHI POWER!), and such.

Day 1:
Link - 19.46%
Cloud - 18.51%
Sephiroth - 17.53%
Mario - 15.41%
Samus - 14.87%
[Crono] - 14.22%

Yeah, the spread will definitely not be that even, I know.

Day 2:
Link - 22.69%
Cloud - 21.58%
Sephiroth - 20.44%
Mario - 17.96%
Samus - 17.33%

Day 3:
Link - 27.44%
Cloud - 26.10%
Sephiroth - 24.73%
Mario - 21.73%

Day 4:
Link - 35.06%
Cloud - 33.35%
Sephiroth - 31.59%

Day 5:
Link - 52.44%
Cloud - 47.56%

I'm going to go out and say it: On Day 1, Link, Cloud, and Sephiroth together will at least double Samus, Mario, and the male champ. There's my bold prediction #1 for that, I suppose.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, Z1mZum drinks punch and eats CAKE! ..I think."
ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/29/2006 8:49:35 AM | message detail
What do you guys think the odds of Sephiroth finishing 2nd in the Battle Royale are?
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Everything's 10X better with a RKO and Orton pose. ~ Donkey111
Zylo the wolf | Posted 8/29/2006 8:52:15 AM | message detail
I definatly can see some wierd "Hero SFF" against Cloud and Link for Sephiroth to get more votes than Cloud.
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Supporter of Daisy.
ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/29/2006 8:57:29 AM | message detail
That's what I was thinking.... The Sephiroth fans vote for Sephiroth no matter who he's against, which is why he still does damn well against Cloud.... so Cloud's already losing half of his support right there. Then take into account what Cloud will be losing from Link... I really don't think it's that big of a stretch for Sephiroth to out-last Cloud.
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Everything's 10X better with a RKO and Orton pose. ~ Donkey111
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 8/29/2006 8:58:46 AM | message detail
To the world, the PS3 is still a lot more of a deal than the Wii

Finally, someone said it. :)

About the Battle Royale, I've got Cloud -> Sephiroth -> Link -> Mario -> Male Winner -> Female Winner. A little bit of Hero SFF going on there.
---
Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
consolefreak | Posted 8/29/2006 8:59:01 AM | message detail
The Guru Contest is a large scale sig bet. A few days before the contest starts a topics will be put up to collect brackets from the guru contest participants. At the end of the contest, the person with the highest contest score wins. The losers all have to put the winners name in their sig for two weeks.

K, thanks.

What do you guys think the odds of Sephiroth finishing 2nd in the Battle Royale are?

It could happen, but I don't see a logical reason why it would. There's no SFF between Cloud - Sephiroth, why would adding Link mess it up? I'm expecting Link to get a little under 50%, and the rest to be split comparably to the previous Cloud - Sephiroth match-ups.


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"The blood of the weak shall be the ink with which we scribe great Yawgmoth's glorious name." - Stronghold architect, journal.
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 8/29/2006 9:02:16 AM | message detail
There's no way Link is breaking 40% with Cloud and Sephiroth in the same poll.
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
consolefreak | Posted 8/29/2006 9:05:13 AM | message detail
There's no way Link is breaking 40% with Cloud and Sephiroth in the same poll.

There's no way Link's losing it either :d (are you serious about your battle royale??) I see Link getting around 40-45% personally. Him failing to break 40% would be coming awfully close to the fair 33% split, but it's pretty much Nintendo - Square with Square splitting the vote, so that's really not happening.

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"The blood of the weak shall be the ink with which we scribe great Yawgmoth's glorious name." - Stronghold architect, journal.
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 8/29/2006 9:07:31 AM | message detail
There's no way Link's losing it either :d (are you serious about your battle royale??

It's a KH year :)

Him failing to break 40% would be coming awfully close to the fair 33% split

Nah. 36-39% is the range I expect Link to fall into. You must remember only a couple % seperates Link and Cloud in the first place..
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/29/2006 9:09:02 AM | message detail
I think Cloud's gonna be hurt really badly by the fact that the people who vote for Sephiroth when he's facing him one on one are still going to vote from Sephiroth in the Battle Royale, and then he's going to lose even more support from the people that like Link better than him.

I just don't see how this Battle Royale could possibly pan out exactly how the stats say it should. Something odd will happen, like Link losing, Cloud finishing behind Sephiroth, or something along those lines.
---
Everything's 10X better with a RKO and Orton pose. ~ Donkey111
consolefreak | Posted 8/29/2006 9:10:22 AM | message detail
There's no way Link's losing it either :d (are you serious about your battle royale??

It's a KH year :)


Yeah, but it's also a TP year :p


Nah. 36-39% is the range I expect Link to fall into. You must remember only a couple % seperates Link and Cloud in the first place..

If Link falls into the 36-39% area, it's impossible that he falls out. So why do you have both Cloud and Sephiroth going further in the battle royale?

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"The blood of the weak shall be the ink with which we scribe great Yawgmoth's glorious name." - Stronghold architect, journal.
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 8/29/2006 9:10:27 AM | message detail
Exactly. Going Link -> Cloud -> Sephiroth -> Mario -> Male Winner -> Female Winner isn't going to happen because you are in a totally different voting format. There has to be some twist and I'm going to find it >_>
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2006 9:10:58 AM | message detail
If Link loses it'll have to be in a crazy fashion...like, on the first or second day, with Cloud and Sephiroth siphoning enough 'swordsman' votes while Mario gets enough 'hardcore' Nintendo vote and the male winner needing to be someone like Sonic or Snake to avoid SFF while Samus...yeah, it'll have to be on the second day.
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Commit it to memory.
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/29/2006 9:12:08 AM | message detail
Something odd will happen, like Link losing,

That's seriously not a possibility. Twilight Princess will definitely be out by the time the Battle Royale takes place. No way does Link even think about losing after that.

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"Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120."
ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/29/2006 9:12:33 AM | message detail
And Karma Hunter, try and talk me into picking Snake to win the male bracket. Because I want to. And I really don't feel right picking Crono...
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Everything's 10X better with a RKO and Orton pose. ~ Donkey111
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 8/29/2006 9:12:45 AM | message detail
If Link falls into the 36-39% area, it's impossible that he falls out. So why do you have both Cloud and Sephiroth going further in the battle royale?

Sorry, I used crappy wording. Expect shouldn't have been the word. I was just showing how Link could finish under 40%, but still show some dominance.

For example:

Link - 38%
Cloud - 34%
Sephiroth - 28%
---
Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 8/29/2006 9:14:01 AM | message detail

That's seriously not a possibility. Twilight Princess will definitely be out by the time the Battle Royale takes place. No way does Link even think about losing after that.


First Rule of Bracketeering: Anything is possible.

IN BEFORE NIDORAN F BEATS SAMUS OR ANOTHER EXTREME EXAMPLE
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
consolefreak | Posted 8/29/2006 9:14:46 AM | message detail
I think Cloud's gonna be hurt really badly by the fact that the people who vote for Sephiroth when he's facing him one on one are still going to vote from Sephiroth in the Battle Royale, and then he's going to lose even more support from the people that like Link better than him.

That's basically saying Sephiroth would be getting over 45% in the battle royale, and we all know that's not going to happen. You can say the exact same things about Cloud.

You're saying that the people who would vote Sephiroth over Cloud would vote him over Link as well, but that the people who would vote Cloud over Sephiroth wouldn't vote him over Link as well.

I just don't see how this Battle Royale could possibly pan out exactly how the stats say it should. Something odd will happen, like Link losing, Cloud finishing behind Sephiroth, or something along those lines.

The odd things will be happening in the early rounds, like Snake (Crono, MM, whatever) outlasting Samus. Cloud is a fan favourite, you know. I don't see Sephy beating him.

---
"The blood of the weak shall be the ink with which we scribe great Yawgmoth's glorious name." - Stronghold architect, journal.
ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/29/2006 9:16:16 AM | message detail
You act like Sephiroth is anything but a fan favorite.
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Everything's 10X better with a RKO and Orton pose. ~ Donkey111
Haste_2 | Posted 8/29/2006 9:17:10 AM | message detail
The whole thing about Sephiroth is that he's a villain, and not a main character.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, Z1mZum drinks punch and eats CAKE! ..I think."
ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/29/2006 9:17:10 AM | message detail

You're saying that the people who would vote Sephiroth over Cloud would vote him over Link as well, but that the people who would vote Cloud over Sephiroth wouldn't vote him over Link as well.


And I actually AM saying this. I think we Sephiroth fans are a bit different than the Cloud fans.
---
Everything's 10X better with a RKO and Orton pose. ~ Donkey111
consolefreak | Posted 8/29/2006 9:18:07 AM | message detail
I think I misunderstood you TG because I thought you had Link losing in the 3rd last round with a Cloud - Sephiroth final.

Link dropping out of the battle royal in any round except the last is beyond absurd, and seriously not happening.
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"The blood of the weak shall be the ink with which we scribe great Yawgmoth's glorious name." - Stronghold architect, journal.
ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/29/2006 9:18:38 AM | message detail
The fact that Sephiroth's an NPC and he still manages to DOMINATE the entirety of the bracket sans Link and Cloud says that he definitely has a different type of fanbase.
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Everything's 10X better with a RKO and Orton pose. ~ Donkey111
consolefreak | Posted 8/29/2006 9:23:00 AM | message detail
You act like Sephiroth is anything but a fan favorite.

I'm sure he is. But so is Cloud. And Cloud is stronger.

And I actually AM saying this. I think we Sephiroth fans are a bit different than the Cloud fans.

I'm a fan of both, personally. I'll be voting Sephiroth, even. But I did that in all his matches against Cloud as well, and he still lost them all.

The whole thing about Sephiroth is that he's a villain, and not a main character.

The SFF will be going on between Zelda and FF, not hero and villain. Are you expecting Sephiroth to have a higher % than Link?

The fact that Sephiroth's an NPC and he still manages to DOMINATE the entirety of the bracket sans Link and Cloud says that he definitely has a different type of fanbase.

A different type of fanbase? I'm pretty sure it's all FFVII gamers, with Cloud having a little advange in the split, as he has shown.
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"The blood of the weak shall be the ink with which we scribe great Yawgmoth's glorious name." - Stronghold architect, journal.
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2006 9:24:43 AM | message detail
And Karma Hunter, try and talk me into picking Snake to win the male bracket.

k

Snake winning the male bracket is a slim possibility, but neither totally impossible nor implausible. His strongest statistical opponent happens to be Crono, who, going by Ngamer's X-Stats Calculator because I'm totally lazy:

Snake (2005c) VS Crono (2005c)

Snake has a strength of 36.97.
Crono has a strength of 39.87.

Crono wins with 53.64% of the vote!
A win of 6,801 with 93,506 total votes cast.


That's quite the feat to overcome, though one may want to keep in mind it's not *quite* as much as Mario scored on Crono in 2k5.

To garner that kind of a boost, Snake will have to bank on those who argued Link getting a boost in 2k4 due to the Twilight Princess trailer being right. Now, while SSBB is not as anticipated on this site as Twilight Princess, Snake being revealed in SSBB is still very, very, big, and FAR more shocking. It's still causing a buzz throughout the internet, and many Nintendo fans who didn't even know who the hell Solid Snake was before are going out, learning about him, and playing his games (and it doesn't hurt that he has a remake of the original MGS available for GC).

We saw that from 2k3 to 2k4, Link boosted enough to go 53-47 on his former self. But this doesn't do the boost justice -- this wasn't a boost from some lower person on the totem pole, this was Base Link boosting, indisputable championship material. It's extremely hard to boost when you're already that freaking popular, and Solid Snake is not nearly on the level of BL. If the SSBB trailer has approximately the same effect of the TP trailer (assuming that the TP trailer was the reason for Link's boost in the first place), it's entirely possible for Snake to boost up to Crono's level. And of course, this doesn't add in the possibilities like Crono/Mega Man/Sonic dropping any, which would only make it easier for him. It's just never good to argue from an opponent's weakness rather than a character's strength.

There. A few paragraphs of bull****, you can kiss your bracket goodbye now! =D
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Tequilla Gundam | Posted 8/29/2006 9:27:20 AM | message detail
Link dropping out of the battle royal in any round except the last is beyond absurd, and seriously not happening.

Eh. It's the same format where Yoshi was voted favorite Mario character. Something absurd will happen. Hell, something absurd happens in a normal-style bracket. Add in a Battle Royale and something that never even crossed any of our minds will happen.
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/29/2006 9:27:34 AM | message detail
Well you've made the decision a bit harder, KH, if anything. =P

I JUST DON'T FEEL RIGHT ABOUT PICKING CRONO, DAMNIT!
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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/29/2006 9:28:24 AM | message detail
Add in a Battle Royale and something that never even crossed any of our minds will happen.

I'm sure something crazy will happen...but it won't deal with Link losing.

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"Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120."
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 8/29/2006 9:29:53 AM | message detail

I'm sure something crazy will happen...but it won't deal with Link losing.


Believe what you may.
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
consolefreak | Posted 8/29/2006 9:30:39 AM | message detail
Eh. It's the same format where Yoshi was voted favorite Mario character. Something absurd will happen. Hell, something absurd happens in a normal-style bracket. Add in a Battle Royale and something that never even crossed any of our minds will happen.

Link, Sephiroth, and Cloud are all fan favourites. They will not be upset. I cannot understand how one would doubt this. I guess I could understand how one could think maybe Cloud and Sephiroth are going to get upset, due to some weird SFF -. But Link of all characters? Come on. When will he go out? Remember his match with Ganon?
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KingBartz | Posted 8/29/2006 9:32:44 AM | message detail
Sephy doesn't get SFF'd because he almost halves the fanbase with Cloud, a feat nobody else can accomplish.

On a side note, I wish we could see Luigi vs Mario to see how much rSFF kicks in...

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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2006 9:32:49 AM | message detail
If there's any 'true' upset in the Royale, I'd have to agree it'll be Sephiroth > Cloud, if only because he'll be the only villain there while Link and Cloud are both heroes. If there's any sort of a split there at all, Link benefits from Cloud and Sephiroth being from the same game while Sephiroth benefits from Link and Cloud being heroes. Hence, Cloud loses out.

...as if Link losing this year weren't impossible enough, Cloud might not even make it to Link. <_<
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Tequilla Gundam | Posted 8/29/2006 9:33:15 AM | message detail
All I'm trying to say is stating anyone is a lock to win in an uncharted format is absurd. Fan Favorite or Not.
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2006 9:33:57 AM | message detail
On a side note, I wish we could see Luigi vs Mario to see how much rSFF kicks in...

Don't look to Mario/Luigi expecting to see much more than a 75%-80%+ SFF beating.
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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/29/2006 9:34:31 AM | message detail
Believe what you may.

Out of curiosity, how many contests has Link lost again? Now how many would you expect him to lose after he gets his biggest game?

Link is already about 3% ahead of his nearest competition, Cloud. By the time the Battle Royale gets underway both the Wii and Twilight Princess will have been out. Link, already the strongest character in this contest, is going to be even stronger.

You're basically saying that something unexpected has to happen, it just has. But while thinking this, you're choosing the thing that has the least chance of being possible, so much so that it is impossible to happen. You'd be better off choosing Sephiroth to make it further than Cloud or Mario to make it further than Sephiroth over having Link lose.

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"Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120."
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2006 9:35:20 AM | message detail
Ah, and I almost forgot:

Sephy doesn't get SFF'd because he almost halves the fanbase with Cloud, a feat nobody else can accomplish.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1776

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1768
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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/29/2006 9:35:57 AM | message detail
All I'm trying to say is stating anyone is a lock to win in an uncharted format is absurd.

I find it more absurd that you're entertaining the idea of Link losing.

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"Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120."