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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 351

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consolefreak | Posted 8/28/2006 4:05:58 PM | message detail
I didn't "mess" with any of those numbers... those are facts.

Yeah, heavily outdated ones.

And I will stay away from Magus since he does mess things up a bit.

That's what I meant.

Assuming Snake SFF'd Squall significantly... (which I am in the dark about.. explain why Snake would SFF Squall?) is it that much to suggest a KHII boost wouldn't make a difference?

For starters, he has an Xs of under 25% in 2k2 (the KH boost was not that big. Knuckles, being beaten by Snake as well, is projected to beat Squall with 56.00%. Second, MGS and FF are pretty much the 2 biggest series on the Playstation. SFF between them is apparent in a number of matches. Sephiroth-Liquid, for example.

The 55% viewership may be there, but it's still a FFVII movie which on paper would lead you to believe it would be very well received on the site the game helped build.

And it is well received.

A FFVII remake holds the critical key advantage over FFVII:Advent Children because it is a game; I would expect that to have a strong effect, just not the movie version of it.

I don't know how much the whole movie =/= game thing really matters. I think it would matter beforehand (a lot less interest towards it). But then there's the 55%.

If Cloud and Sephiroth are not going to boost much -- the two most important characters in the whole movie -- I would not suspect any other character to see an increase. The role Vincent played in Advent Children barely had any more prominence in that movie than someone like Barret or Yuffie or Cid did. He appeared in a couple of more scenes merely chatting with Cloud.

That's not what I meant. I meant that despite Cloud having a way bigger role (Sephiroth's a little bigger) the boost wouldn't be equally bigger. And I am expecting Cloud to boost quite a lot from AC.

I wouldn't go comparing Vincent's role to Barret's or Yuffie's though. Aside from stuff like Barret looking Godawful (have you seen the "shirt"?), he's just way cooler, gets to talk quite a lot, and also has the forest fight where he is actually useful.

If we're going to talk about the role, Tifa is the one that you would have to look at when thinking of boosts from it. She is lower than Cloud and Sephiroth and is easily the next character in line. Even then, I would not expect her boost, from Advent Children alone, to be that much. Any attention surrounding the movie has pretty much come and gone; the role the characters played in the movie will depend on the boost. Vincent's role was nothing worth mentioning separate of the other characters.

I agree on the Tifa bit. She best combines previous contest strength with AC prominence for the biggest boost. Vincent is third behind Cloud (who may boost bigger than Tifa). I really disagree on Vincent's role not being different from the rest of the pack though. He's there more often, he has the best voice actor of them all (lol opinions), and he's actually useful and awesome.

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"The blood of the weak shall be the ink with which we scribe great Yawgmoth's glorious name." - Stronghold architect, journal.
Big Bob | Posted 8/28/2006 4:06:35 PM | message detail
Peach has a shower scene in Paper Mario 2. That should get her votes.
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consolefreak | Posted 8/28/2006 4:06:58 PM | message detail
Vincent played the same general role he did in Final Fantasy VII -- the calm and cool guy. When you pull back and look at the entire situation from an objective standpoint, it is hard to argue in favor of Vincent's role giving him anything notable. If Cloud and Sephiroth, by far te two coolest characters in the movie, don't receive much from it there will be little reason to expect much from the remaining cast. The movie glorifies a character like Cloud by not really focusing on his character so much as his fighting, which can surely change people's opinions of him. Vincent...I don't see how anyone's opinion could be changed or how a new fan could have been gotten from that movie alone.

Well, there are probably AC viewers that didn't know Vincent (or had only heard of him). Other than that, there's the fact that he has this "I'm important" attitude and he just pulls that off. I don't know. Hard to explain, I guess. I liked him a lot more from AC than from FFVII.

Vincent will have to rely on Dirge of Cerberus primarily for his boost. Fortunately for him -- and unfortunately for Ganon -- it is the most recent game released that will affect the contest. He is fresh in the minds of people and all the attention is on him in that game. The only thing I have thought up that could potentially get that focus off of Vincent and his game is positive news concerning the Wii release date, price, and perhaps new Twilight Princess screenshots/trailer.

I'm still sceptical towards playership of the title. It keeps doing good in the FAQs though.

This Vincent/Ganon match is pretty crazy. Both of them have reasons to win and both are perhaps the strongest outside of the Noble Nine along with Bowser. It should be a good match.

Indeed, indeed.

There are factors that you can remove from Cloud's favor without losing any sleep -- PS3, DoC, FFXII, and FFIIIDS. These are not going to do much at all to favor Cloud, especially since he has virtually no part in any of them. If we're talking about the possibility of bringing more Square fans to the site, I would say that Twilight Princess pretty much cancels that out entirely.

I was talking about the influx. And TP will have a hard enough time holding off FFXII, but the Playstation 3? No no, Nintendo will need the Wii for that.

You have to believe that Cloud is capable of boosting primarily because of his role in KH2 and AC. It is worth remembering that Cloud is already behind Link without Twilight Princess by about 2.XX%. Link will be in his most dominant state ever with Twilight Princess releasing before the Battle Royale even begins. The clear favoring is already toward Link -- now add in his biggest release ever. I would suspect that Link will push 55% if not higher. There will be one thing and only one thing on the minds of the voters -- Zelda.

Over 55% on both Cloud and Link? Not happening. I think you're putting a little too much stock into TP. FFXII alone is as big of a deal, really. Not that it'll boost Cloud like TP will boost Link (not even close), you should just know that it's not going to be all Nintendo.

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"The blood of the weak shall be the ink with which we scribe great Yawgmoth's glorious name." - Stronghold architect, journal.
AmazingKirby | Posted 8/28/2006 4:09:24 PM | message detail
Whoa, Riku is one of KH's favorite characters? Didn't see that coming. *writes down*
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/28/2006 4:12:28 PM | message detail
I figured I'd understand more if I actually *played* a KH game. Though, I think Kairi only has a high seed because she's the only female KH fans can think of, kinda like how Peach is a high seed but won't really live up to it.

All right, now that we got that straight, would anyone here expect Kairi to be even a least bit stronger than Ansem (or Axel) indirectly?
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2006 4:14:01 PM | message detail
Kairi would beat Axel, sadly enough. Ansem...ooh. I'll get back to you on that one...
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Master Moltar | Posted 8/28/2006 4:16:01 PM | message detail
I'd go Ansem > Kairi > Axel, but they'd all be pretty close together.

And got an answer for my e-mail, KH?
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Moltar Status: Bracket filled and ready to go.
2006 is the year of Samus Aran
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2006 4:18:03 PM | message detail
Whoops, forgot about that! Reply sent. <_<
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/28/2006 4:18:11 PM | message detail
Ansem...ooh. I'll get back to you on that one...

I already had Claire in my bracket and had been debatin' it in my head from the beginning, but if you mean pre-KH2 Ansem then this comment just sealed the deal for me.
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TheFreeshooter | Posted 8/28/2006 4:18:56 PM | message detail
Ansem would not beat Axel. Who actually likes Ansem? And Axel has about as much screentime as him, and he's certainly more likable. Ansem has nothing going for him but the whole DARKNESS thing, and that's more of people making fun of him.
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2006 4:19:29 PM | message detail
I really wouldn't have expected Ansem to have boosted at all from KH2, for what it's worth.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 8/28/2006 4:20:48 PM | message detail
The thing that worries me most about Kairi is that she's one of those very rare characters who has never been playable or a part of your party. Apart from the contest phenom known as Sephiroth, the strongest non-playable characters are all villains (Diablo, Ocelot, Kefka) who have not been exactly fantastic in a contest setting. Despite that, I'd take any of those guys over Kairi in a heartbeat.

Kairi would beat Axel, sadly enough. Ansem...ooh. I'll get back to you on that one...

The very fact that Kairi/Ansem has me thinking (almost leaning toward Ansem, really) is troubling. Ansem could only muster 54% on Face CATS. Is Claire Redfield really that weak?
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2006 4:22:21 PM | message detail
Perhaps it's my tendency to underrate Axel, but he seems more a fan-favorite phenomenon...either that, or I feel that he was infinitely more badass in CoM (My sig >>>>>>> "Got it memorized?").
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AmazingKirby | Posted 8/28/2006 4:22:36 PM | message detail
Ansem > Kairi? o_O People actually like Ansem? I'd take Malificent over Ansem.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2006 4:24:36 PM | message detail
Maleficent sort of has the whole "hay guyz I was in a popular Disney movie too" that would easily have me going with her there...plus, I would actually expect her to benefit from KH2, unlike Ansem.

*Minor KH2 spoilers*

Heck, thanks to KH2 we won't ever see Ansem again even if we do have another Villains Contest.

*end minor spoilers*
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TheFreeshooter | Posted 8/28/2006 4:24:52 PM | message detail
Perhaps it's my tendency to underrate Axel, but he seems more a fan-favorite phenomenon...either that, or I feel that he was infinitely more badass in CoM (My sig >>>>>>> "Got it memorized?").

Well, no matter which game you liked him better than, he's most likely the most popular character in Organization XIII. And Organization XIII >> Ansem. And no, this screenname has nothing to do with that notion!
Draco1214 | Posted 8/28/2006 4:24:57 PM | message detail
Ansem > Kairi? Come on now, Kairi is a hell of a lot more prominent and is more likable in the KH series than DARKNESS is. She's easily stronger than him.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
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Master Moltar | Posted 8/28/2006 4:27:28 PM | message detail
Yeah, I see Axel as just a small fan-favorite than a legit contender.

And I forgot Ansem/CATS. Looks like Kairi > Ansem it is! But...I'd take Claire over CATS too.

Dammit, stop talking about this match, it's making me want to go back to Claire!
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Moltar Status: Bracket filled and ready to go.
2006 is the year of Samus Aran
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2006 4:27:41 PM | message detail
I liked Ansem more than Kairi, but I really loathed bobble-head in KH. She was a little better in KH2, I guess. Still, I'm not sold on Kairi > Ansem, though it's certainly possible.
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AmazingKirby | Posted 8/28/2006 4:29:06 PM | message detail
New question: How is Yuffie not in this contest?
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Draco1214 | Posted 8/28/2006 4:29:52 PM | message detail
Because Yuffie suck--*batteries die*
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Owned by Z1mZum in the Best. Series. Ever. Guru Contest
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/28/2006 4:31:17 PM | message detail
Heh, I completely forgot about Yuffie. What a travesty.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
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TheFreeshooter | Posted 8/28/2006 4:32:10 PM | message detail
I actually see nothing to like about Kairi myself. But hoardes of Kingdom Hearts fans actually think she's hot or something in KH2. I think I'm underestimating the Resident Evil fanbase though. No way in hell do they support Kairi over Claire... And I could see plenty of Kingdom Hearts fans not caring about Kairi. I'm leaning towards Claire myself.
WeSurrender | Posted 8/28/2006 4:33:43 PM | message detail
When does Guru Begin?
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AmazingKirby | Posted 8/28/2006 4:34:02 PM | message detail
Think about it this way...would Kairi get more than 55% on Gordon Freeman like Claire would if she was weaker than Leon? The answer is yes, Kairi wins, yay.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2006 4:34:06 PM | message detail
Yuffie as the 2 seed in Yuna's division would have been fantastic. I can't understand how the FFVII fanbase didn't get her in, though...she's obviously the most popular FFVII female after Tifa/Aeris, and for chrissakes FFX already has in two females!
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Master Moltar | Posted 8/28/2006 4:34:31 PM | message detail
Well, it took to Ceej forcing us to nominate females to get Aeris back in. Guess Yuffie isn't much of a priority.
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Moltar Status: Bracket filled and ready to go.
2006 is the year of Samus Aran
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2006 4:35:15 PM | message detail
Think about it this way...would Kairi get more than 55% on Gordon Freeman like Claire would if she was weaker than Leon? The answer is yes, Kairi wins, yay.

Uh...I'd take Leon to at least 60/40 Kairi without much of a sweat. People are just having a lot of trouble accepting a Gordon with any semblance of strength.
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AmazingKirby | Posted 8/28/2006 4:35:28 PM | message detail
I guess people that play FF7 just don't like Yuffie. Even appearances in every KH game can't get her in.
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 8/28/2006 4:36:33 PM | message detail
I'm more surprised at no Rinoa or other FF8 girl than no Yuffie.

Doesn't everyone hate Yuffie? Like Cait Sith?
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2006 4:36:43 PM | message detail
I won't deny that Yuffie is reviled by many for Wutai, but I thought that she'd get at least *some* support. Eh, guess not...
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Draco1214 | Posted 8/28/2006 4:36:44 PM | message detail
Well, look at Gordon's track record.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Owned by Z1mZum in the Best. Series. Ever. Guru Contest
Master Moltar | Posted 8/28/2006 4:37:16 PM | message detail
People are just having a lot of trouble accepting a Gordon with any semblance of strength.

Agreed. I'd take Freeman post-HL2 over Kairi easy.
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Moltar Status: Bracket filled and ready to go.
2006 is the year of Samus Aran
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/28/2006 4:37:35 PM | message detail
I beat KH2 about four months ago, and I can hardly remember a thing about Kairi. Her most memorable moment is easily the Kingdom Hearts ending, and while that was very touching and completely adorable, I'm not sure if it's enough to win her matches outright.

Man, it seems that I really want to switch back to Claire.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
Part of your woooorld!
Tai | Posted 8/28/2006 4:38:13 PM | message detail
Is Claire Redfield really that weak?

Well, considering she hasn't been in a contest since 2K2, nor a game since 2K3, I'd say she's weakned.
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 8/28/2006 4:38:20 PM | message detail
Kairi was totally badass at the end of KH2 ;>_>
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/contest_nominate.php
Please nominate K. K. Slider (Animal Crossing) (Male) and Kazooie (Banjo-Kazooie) (Female)
TheFreeshooter | Posted 8/28/2006 4:38:49 PM | message detail
I'm sure that Yuffie would get support if she got in the contest. I think that FFVII fans decided to use some RPG slots on some of the lesser characters and on KAIRI! But yeah, I wouldn't take that as a knock on Yuffie's popularity.
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2006 4:39:53 PM | message detail
I'm sure that Yuffie would get support if she got in the contest. I think that FFVII fans decided to use some RPG slots on some of the lesser characters and on KAIRI!

...god damn you, Kairi.
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Draco1214 | Posted 8/28/2006 4:40:42 PM | message detail
Agreed. I'd take Freeman post-HL2 over Kairi easy.

I wouldn't, and I still maintain that HL2 did barely anything for Freeman.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Owned by Z1mZum in the Best. Series. Ever. Guru Contest
Tai | Posted 8/28/2006 4:42:47 PM | message detail
Heh, sad that Kairi/Claire play first, but if Phoenix/GFNW were first and Pheonix won, I'd have complete confidence in Kairi.
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Just like the South in the Civil War, the Red Sox will always and forever be remebered for getting owned by the Yankees.
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2006 4:43:01 PM | message detail
But the way you've argued it, Draco, it's been more indicative of Gordon's weakness than Leon's, which renders the possibility that Kairi would get 55% on GF irrelevant (since Claire could likely do it too).
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Master Moltar | Posted 8/28/2006 4:46:09 PM | message detail
I'd consider 45% on Sam Fisher (who then got quadded by Samus) to 42% on Leon Kennedy post-RE4 (who got 35% on Mega Man) something.
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Moltar Status: Bracket filled and ready to go.
2006 is the year of Samus Aran
Draco1214 | Posted 8/28/2006 4:48:21 PM | message detail
But the way you've argued it, Draco, it's been more indicative of Gordon's weakness than Leon's, which renders the possibility that Kairi would get 55% on GF irrelevant (since Claire could likely do it too).

I wasn't trying to argue anything related to Kairi/Claire. I was trying to argue against Gordon Freeman having anything resembling strength on this site. He's still bottom of the barrel fodder in my eyes.

Honestly, Kairi/Claire is a toss-up, but I went with Kairi because she's the safer pick. Claire hasn't seen a new game or contest in years, while Kairi had a good role in what's currently GameFAQs' Game of the Year so far. Claire's strength could've taken a tailspin like Jill's has.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Owned by Z1mZum in the Best. Series. Ever. Guru Contest
AmazingKirby | Posted 8/28/2006 4:51:12 PM | message detail
All this talk about it makes me glad Kairi/Claire is the 4th match of the contest.
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Tai | Posted 8/28/2006 4:54:04 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Tai | Posted 8/28/2006 4:54:36 PM | message detail
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 8/28/2006 7:51:12 PM | Message Detail
All this talk about it makes me glad Kairi/Claire is the 4th match of the contest.

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Just like the South in the Civil War, the Red Sox will always and forever be remebered for getting owned by the Yankees.
Draco1214 | Posted 8/28/2006 4:56:51 PM | message detail
I'd consider 45% on Sam Fisher (who then got quadded by Samus) to 42% on Leon Kennedy post-RE4 (who got 35% on Mega Man) something.

Yes, but Gordon's boost looking at the numbers is just ludicrous. To compare with other boosts:

2005 (big Nintendo voting pool shift):

Mario - 5.92% since 2004
Luigi - 6.08% since 2003

For comparison's sake, a non-Nintendo character's boost in 2005:

Dante - 5.4% since 2004 and post-DMC3 (there's a possibility of it being inflated if Vincent overperformed on Crono, but as of now, this is how it is)

2003 (big Square shift)

Sephiroth - 6.36%
Squall Leonhart - 7.36% (inflated a bit if you think something happened in Snake/Squall 2002)

I'm not touching Cloud's values due to being behind Mario/Cloud in 2002.

Gordon's boost in 2005? 8.41%

Now do you honestly believe one PC game did more for Gordon than entire shifts in the voting pool did for other characters?
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AmazingKirby | Posted 8/28/2006 4:57:52 PM | message detail
Now do you honestly believe one PC game did more for Gordon than entire shifts in the voting pool did for other characters?

Yes.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2006 4:58:23 PM | message detail
A single game can do a LOT when you're just that weak. We just haven't had a lot of legitimate recurring fodder in these contests. I mean, CATS isn't getting a game any time soon.

I'm inclined to believe GF is more or less legit.
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/28/2006 4:58:28 PM | message detail
Everyone talks about Claire taking a turn for the worst like Jill, but even if she did (and I think she did), why can't she still be stronger than Jill? She sure was in 2K2, yeah, lol 2k2, but it's not completely ridiculous to believe.

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