GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 351
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| XIII_rocks | Posted 8/28/2006 10:57:17 AM | message detail |
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Thought I'd celebrate my GCSE results with my fifth ever stats topic. WOO *Creativename's websites* Everything you could ever imagine: http://www.GameFAQsContests.com http://www.sc2k5.com http://www.sc2k4.com Sortable Table for Every Contest Match: http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19 *Extrapolated Standings* Explanation of Extrapolated Standings: http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11 Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings: A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left): http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/ *Solarshadow's Sites* Summer 2002 Contest: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com Summer 2003 Contest: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating) http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html *Old Stats topics* Summer 2002 Contest: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html Summer 2003 Contest: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note) 2003-2004 Off-Season: http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note) Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL. Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them): http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them): http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm *Match Pictures* All the match pics, save for three from 2002: http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php *Miscellaneous* Creativename's Page of Links: http://sc2k4.com/links.php UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language): http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language): http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches: http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists: http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251 HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007 TRE's poll listing (every poll!): http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html Aprosenf's Poll Script: http://www.geocities.com/aprosenf/allpolls.txt GameFAQs' Top 100 Games: http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/top10/top10_100.html !yawa tsoP --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz Hi-ho, Hi-ho, Z1m Zum, Z1m Zum...our guru champ. |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 8/28/2006 10:57:50 AM | message detail |
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First! --- When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory! |
| FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/28/2006 10:58:06 AM | message detail |
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Didn't you make one a few weeks ago? --- Explicit Content Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did! |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 8/28/2006 10:59:01 AM | message detail |
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...Yeah. --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz Hi-ho, Hi-ho, Z1m Zum, Z1m Zum...our guru champ. |
| FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/28/2006 10:59:31 AM | message detail |
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Oh... I read "fifth" as "first" nevermind!! --- Explicit Content Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did! |
| Janus5000 | Posted 8/28/2006 11:00:21 AM | message detail |
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Let's see, what inequality do I post at the beginning of these... I'll take the one my sig's riding on. Luigi > Zero! --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 8/28/2006 11:02:45 AM | message detail |
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I'll take the one that two of my accounts are riding on!! Ganon > Sonic. --- "Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120." |
| AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 8/28/2006 11:12:47 AM | message detail |
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I'll take one that my sig is riding on! Nidoran F > Samus -Wangbeater ~-~-~ Icehawk: A wife beating wang lover. Sounds like a good gimmick to me |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2006 11:13:34 AM | message detail |
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I'll take the one that won't happen! Solid Snake > Link --- Commit it to memory. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 8/28/2006 1:11:58 PM | message detail |
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I'll take the one EC's mom is riding on. The lower half of the bracket > the upper half of the bracket. --- Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest. It still hurts to be rear-ended like that..... |
| GavHarrison316 | Posted 8/28/2006 1:13:31 PM | message detail |
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Why aren't we finishing part 350? --- *hides in a box* ~~~GH316~~~ |
| FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/28/2006 1:14:07 PM | message detail |
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Shows what you know HaRR! My mom totally want to ride Lara Croft. --- Explicit Content Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did! |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 8/28/2006 1:39:14 PM | message detail |
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I finally got a stats 500! I was out by 5 seconds last time, but NOT THIS TIME! har --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz Hi-ho, Hi-ho, Z1m Zum, Z1m Zum...our guru champ. |
| shadow8021 | Posted 8/28/2006 1:41:48 PM | message detail |
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Excellent 500 post. --- Character Battle Score: 0/0 Next Pick: lol Samus > Nidoran F |
| BlastTheSpeaker | Posted 8/28/2006 1:44:48 PM | message detail |
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Zeros winning his division! I'm spreadin the word! -Hiko --- Blast the Speakers!! Hopeful Soon To Be WWEGSB FPV DL Member |
| shadow8021 | Posted 8/28/2006 1:45:52 PM | message detail |
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Zero won't make it past Round 1. --- Character Battle Score: 0/0 Next Pick: lol Samus > Nidoran F |
| WilhuffTarkin | Posted 8/28/2006 1:46:25 PM | message detail |
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Hiko, did your account get banned? That would make two... --- Evacuate? In our moment of triumph? I think you overestimate their chances. |
| BlastTheSpeaker | Posted 8/28/2006 1:49:29 PM | message detail |
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Nada, it is currently warned. Its been warned at least 10 or 15 times this year, all for pretty lame reasons. --- Blast the Speakers!! Hopeful Soon To Be WWEGSB FPV DL Member |
| BlastTheSpeaker | Posted 8/28/2006 1:50:01 PM | message detail |
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Zero won't make it past Round 1. Luigi and Kirby will be nothing to him >_> --- Blast the Speakers!! Hopeful Soon To Be WWEGSB FPV DL Member |
| GavHarrison316 | Posted 8/28/2006 1:55:37 PM | message detail |
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I would of got 500 if it wern't for post error >_< --- *hides in a box* ~~~GH316~~~ |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/28/2006 1:56:15 PM | message detail |
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I'm still having trouble figuring out Kairi and Claire's estimated
values. I mean Kairi is of course going to be weaker than Riku (adding
a boost Riku should get), but what about Claire? I predict her being
silghtly weaker than Jill. --- “Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them.” - Vivi0198 |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/28/2006 2:02:00 PM | message detail |
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I just realized the best thing about having a female bracket: four rounds of Zelda pictures! That's going to be awesome! --- Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent. |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/28/2006 2:03:21 PM | message detail |
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Hypothetical question: Snake, Sonic, and Mega Man all make it into
Super Smash Bros. Brawl, assuring themselves continued contest
dominance. In the mean time, Crono slips a bit and loses to someone
outside of the Noble Nine. Do we now refer to our top group as the
Elite 8, or do we drop the concept all together? Remember, the eight remaining guys will have distanced themselves from the pack, but three of them already have losses to Crono. --- Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... Part of your woooorld! |
| VectorAgent | Posted 8/28/2006 2:03:55 PM | message detail |
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Drop the concept. --- CHARACTER BATTLE V: Samus Aran > Crono. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 8/28/2006 2:04:27 PM | message detail |
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Jill Valentine (2004c) VS Riku (2005c) Jill Valentine has a strength of 22.13. Riku has a strength of 24.13. Riku wins with 54.14% of the vote! A win of 7,898 with 95,292 total votes cast. And Riku may potentially be underrated. However, I think Claire will be closer to Jill, while Kairi will be far, far away from Riku. You know what's funny though, try doing Claire vs. Riku, then Claire vs. Sora, and THEN Claire vs. 2004 Sora. Claire beats them all. Go Go 2002 Stats! Oh yeah, and KH, check your e-mail. --- Moltar Status: Bracket filled and ready to go. 2006 is the year of Samus Aran |
| GavHarrison316 | Posted 8/28/2006 2:06:21 PM | message detail |
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How many perfect brackets do you think there'l be? I'm guessing 5 at the most. --- *hides in a box* ~~~GH316~~~ |
| _Harmonica_ | Posted 8/28/2006 2:07:09 PM | message detail |
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I doubt we'll get any perfects. --- Harmonica Not even Midgar Zolom stands a chance against Guru winner Z1mZum! |
| AmazingKirby | Posted 8/28/2006 2:07:24 PM | message detail |
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Oh well, you Claire people will have just have to wait until September 15 to say "Oops." I just realized the best thing about having a female bracket: four rounds of Zelda pictures! That's going to be awesome! You mean 5? I can't see her losing to Yuna. --- caps |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/28/2006 2:10:46 PM | message detail |
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It's definitely a tough match. Both Kairi and Claire are featured in
only two games (Kairi's probably in Chain of Memories, but eh, throw
that in with all the RE remakes and ports and call it a tie), but
Claire is a playable lead in both, while Kairi doesn't do much at all.
Of course, both of Kairi's games are much more popular, and she also
has the recency of Kingdom Hearts II on her side. Also, Claire has had
absolutely nothing since 2001. Nothing. Very few characters can go
years without any support and display match winning potential. --- Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... Part of your woooorld! |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 8/28/2006 2:13:38 PM | message detail |
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I admit I'm a Claire fanboy, but honestly, does anyone really like Kairi? She's just like Peach IMO. --- Supporter of Daisy. |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 8/28/2006 2:15:08 PM | message detail |
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I like Kairi. --- Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... Part of your woooorld! |
| Master Moltar | Posted 8/28/2006 2:17:52 PM | message detail |
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That's why I think Kairi will win. Claire hasn't had anything since her
appearance in 2002, so I think it's safe to say that she's fallen off
the radar. Even though I don't see many people liking Kairi, they'll
probably vote for her just because she's in KH, and that should give
her the advantage. I also think Peach is like a stronger version of Kairi where few actually like her, but she'll get votes for her series. But unlike Claire, Jill has shown some strength in recent years. --- Moltar Status: Bracket filled and ready to go. 2006 is the year of Samus Aran |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 8/28/2006 2:29:52 PM | message detail |
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Boost-wise, you have to keep in mind that Cloud/Sephiroth are less
susceptible to boosting. It's like Mario, the more well-known you are,
the harder it is to boost from something. If Cloud and Sephiroth are not going to boost much -- the two most important characters in the whole movie -- I would not suspect any other character to see an increase. The role Vincent played in Advent Children barely had any more prominence in that movie than someone like Barret or Yuffie or Cid did. He appeared in a couple of more scenes merely chatting with Cloud. If we're going to talk about the role, Tifa is the one that you would have to look at when thinking of boosts from it. She is lower than Cloud and Sephiroth and is easily the next character in line. Even then, I would not expect her boost, from Advent Children alone, to be that much. Any attention surrounding the movie has pretty much come and gone; the role the characters played in the movie will depend on the boost. Vincent's role was nothing worth mentioning separate of the other characters. Vincent played the same general role he did in Final Fantasy VII -- the calm and cool guy. When you pull back and look at the entire situation from an objective standpoint, it is hard to argue in favor of Vincent's role giving him anything notable. If Cloud and Sephiroth, by far te two coolest characters in the movie, don't receive much from it there will be little reason to expect much from the remaining cast. The movie glorifies a character like Cloud by not really focusing on his character so much as his fighting, which can surely change people's opinions of him. Vincent...I don't see how anyone's opinion could be changed or how a new fan could have been gotten from that movie alone. Vincent will have to rely on Dirge of Cerberus primarily for his boost. Fortunately for him -- and unfortunately for Ganon -- it is the most recent game released that will affect the contest. He is fresh in the minds of people and all the attention is on him in that game. The only thing I have thought up that could potentially get that focus off of Vincent and his game is positive news concerning the Wii release date, price, and perhaps new Twilight Princess screenshots/trailer. This Vincent/Ganon match is pretty crazy. Both of them have reasons to win and both are perhaps the strongest outside of the Noble Nine along with Bowser. It should be a good match. But would he get a majority (or get close to it)? I would imagine that after Twilight Princess, he'd be pulling a good majority of the votes in a Link/Cloud/Sephiroth match. I beg to differ. Cloud has AC and KH2 as well, remember. Well, the real who-gained-more battle will be between PS3, DoC, FFXII, AC, KH2, FFIIIDS and Wii, TP. There are factors that you can remove from Cloud's favor without losing any sleep -- PS3, DoC, FFXII, and FFIIIDS. These are not going to do much at all to favor Cloud, especially since he has virtually no part in any of them. If we're talking about the possibility of bringing more Square fans to the site, I would say that Twilight Princess pretty much cancels that out entirely. You have to believe that Cloud is capable of boosting primarily because of his role in KH2 and AC. It is worth remembering that Cloud is already behind Link without Twilight Princess by about 2.XX%. Link will be in his most dominant state ever with Twilight Princess releasing before the Battle Royale even begins. The clear favoring is already toward Link -- now add in his biggest release ever. I would suspect that Link will push 55% if not higher. There will be one thing and only one thing on the minds of the voters -- Zelda. --- "Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120." |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 8/28/2006 2:35:49 PM | message detail |
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Whoa, hold on. Nigh everyone here thinks Snake is going to get a
boost? Aside from the fact that it's only a trailer to begin with, any
kind of a significant boost and you've got to give him a shot at Mega
Man. It really isn't too hard to imagine Snake getting a boost this contest. Out of all the characters, Solid Snake rocked E3 through both Metal Gear Solid 4 and Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I would not say it is anything significant, but Snake should be a bit stronger this year than he was last year. I know he got at least one new fan since the last contest -- and it's thanks to that MGS4 trailer!! =p HM, I know. Sonic/GDorf is a toss-up. Right now Im sticking with Sonic mainly because I dont like betting againist the Noble Nine. It's understandable. I have no problems when someone isn't willing to take Ganon over Sonic because not only is it an upset, but it also does away with a concept that has lasted since the first contest. That doesn't even mention that Sonic over Ganon would go against the preference of just about 99% of the board, on top of Sonic's strength and Noble Nine status. Still, I just like it when I can see people accepting that there is a very real possibility of it happening. If Twilight Princess comes out before, around, or on the date of the match, I would almost go so far as to guarantee that Ganon pulls it out and wins. When you look at the stats, the worst case scenario puts Ganon at needed a 4.60% boost; the best case scenario is a 0.5% boost (Ganon 1.38% ahead of Bowser's 2005 value based upon the gap shown in the match with Sephiroth). I'm guessing it's somewhere in between -- a slightly adjusted Ganon for SFF gets 48% on Sonic in 2005. But yeah, King of Evil set to rock the Noble Nine on October 28th!! --- "Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120." |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 8/28/2006 2:42:55 PM | message detail |
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Even though I don't see many people liking Kairi, they'll probably
vote for her just because she's in KH, and that should give her the
advantage. Ah, but here's the thing. While Kairi's two games may be more popular than Claire's, as a complete series, Resident Evil did technically outperform Kingdom Hearts in the last contest. I know the Series Contest X-Stats don't mean much, but tell me a Kingdom Hearts vs. Resident Evil match wouldn't be a real pain to predict. Taking that into consideration, I've been asking myself if Claire means more to her series than Kairi does to her own. The answer is almost certainly "yes," but I can't shake that nagging feeling that Kairi should win this with ease. Bottom line: this is my toughest match so far. --- Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... Part of your woooorld! |
| Heroic Mario | Posted 8/28/2006 2:43:29 PM | message detail |
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Also, Claire has had absolutely nothing since 2001. Nothing. Very
few characters can go years without any support and display match
winning potential. This is what makes me doubt Claire. Even with my expectation that Kairi will be very weak, I cannot imagine Claire being worth much either. She has been gone from the gaming scene for a long time, and I have no interest in taking the 2002 stats seriously. But the problem with Kairi... but honestly, does anyone really like Kairi? She's just like Peach IMO. Is this. I'm not too in touch with the KH fanbase, but I never really get the vibe that people care for Kairi. I suppose since she's one of three main characters that she should get some benefit of the doubt, along with being fresh in people's minds through KH2, but that's a concern I have about her. I have Kairi right now because of her being in Kingdom Hearts, which should her some votes when people end up not caring about either one. Add to that KH2 being big here and I think she'll just squeak by. I initially had Claire, though, and it wouldn't be that shocking to see her win. --- "Zelda isn't the type of game that can be a 100 on a scale of 1 to 100 -- it has to be 120." |
| FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/28/2006 2:44:04 PM | message detail |
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Good thing it's only worth one point! --- Explicit Content Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did! |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2006 2:51:28 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, this doesn't seem like the series contest, where one point = no chance at winning. Oh yeah, and KH, check your e-mail. Holy crap I completely forgot I had e-mail again. O.O --- Commit it to memory. |
| FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/28/2006 2:52:31 PM | message detail |
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Oh and KH, go write a bio for PoP. >_> --- Explicit Content Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did! |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2006 2:53:34 PM | message detail |
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I already wrote a bio for PoP like half a year ago which, like everything else I write, was lost to the winds of time! YAY --- Commit it to memory. |
| FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/28/2006 2:54:57 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, yeah, yeah, it was like 18 posts long too, it was the best PoP
write-up I'd ever read, so naturally I didn't save it, and let your
topic purge. But now the contest site needs you! I would write one, but
you're 20 times the writer I am. --- Explicit Content Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did! |
| FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/28/2006 2:57:04 PM | message detail |
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By the way, I'm taking bets on how much % PoP can get on Kirby, whoever guesses the highest wins. >_> --- Explicit Content Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did! |
| Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/28/2006 2:57:52 PM | message detail |
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hes gunna git 45% and expose how weak kirby is cuz hes dum -hiko --- I'm a 6' 238 lb Gladiator! Dagan Bomb For The WIN! |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 8/28/2006 2:57:56 PM | message detail |
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Ii would be very willing to read that writeup. Just as willing as I am to write The Boss'! (HINT) --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz Hi-ho, Hi-ho, Z1m Zum, Z1m Zum...our guru champ. |
| FastFalcon05 | Posted 8/28/2006 2:58:55 PM | message detail |
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I admit I'm a Claire fanboy, but honestly, does anyone really like Kairi? She's just like Peach IMO. People like Peach, she's going to do fine for herself. As for Kairi, I think she's a much better character in Kingdom Hearts. The ending of Kingdom Hearts definitely leaves you with a favorable image of her, or at least hugely sympathetic. Claire could beat her, but I suspect the match isn't a blowout either way. --- Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2006 3:05:17 PM | message detail |
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If Prince can get around 30-32% on Kirby I'll be satisfied, and if he
can break the 35% mark it'll be a dream come true. Fisher broke the 35%
mark on Donkey Kong, and it's plausible to see the difference between
Prince and Fisher roughly about the same as Kirby and DK, all things
considered. --- Commit it to memory. |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/28/2006 3:07:16 PM | message detail |
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Gah, I don't see why people think Kairi will be strong. Sure, she's
from KH...but Tingle is from Zelda. Tingle vs. Kairi might be a good
match, but neither of them could stand up to Claire. You mean 5? I can't see her losing to Yuna. Err, yeah. I always forget about that match, because of how incredibly lame it's going to be. If only Yuna and Tifa had switched places... --- Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 8/28/2006 3:09:05 PM | message detail |
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Gah, I don't see why people think Kairi will be strong. Que? No one is saying Kairi will be strong. We just think Claire will be weaker now. 'blazer should also check his e-mail. --- Moltar Status: Bracket filled and ready to go. 2006 is the year of Samus Aran |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2006 3:10:29 PM | message detail |
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Oh, no doubt in my mind Kairi will be a bottom feeder...I'm just not
sure how much Claire has fallen off the map. If this was 2k2 (and the
KH series was somehow in existence during it) I'd have taken Claire
without a second thought. I'd also feel a lot better if Claire and Kairi's seedings were reversed...nominations do count for a *little*, after all, and if Kairi had managed only a low seed despite all the other KH support I'd feel much better with asserting that NO ONE cares about her. --- Commit it to memory. |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/28/2006 3:14:18 PM | message detail |
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Que? No one is saying Kairi will be strong. We just think Claire will be weaker now. Yeah, and so do I, but I don't see Kairi being stronger than someone like Geno. I'd also feel a lot better if Claire and Kairi's seedings were reversed...nominations do count for a *little*, after all, and if Kairi had managed only a low seed despite all the other KH support I'd feel much better with asserting that NO ONE cares about her. Heh, technically the seeding is exactly the same as Jill vs. Hayabusa in 2k4. But you have to remember one thing: this is the FEMALE bracket. Simply being recent is enough to get nominations there, but votes are something entirely different. --- Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent. |